Evaluating the Efficacy of Latent Variables in Mitigating Data Poisoning Attacks in the Context of Bayesian Networks:An Empirical Study

Bayesian networks are a powerful class of graphical decision models used to represent causal relationships among variables.However,the reliability and integrity of learned Bayesian network models are highly dependent on the quality of incoming data streams.One of the primary challenges with Bayesian networks is their vulnerability to adversarial data poisoning attacks,wherein malicious data is injected into the training dataset to negatively influence the Bayesian network models and impair their performance.In this research paper,we propose an efficient framework for detecting data poisoning attacks against Bayesian network structure learning algorithms.Our framework utilizes latent variables to quantify the amount of belief between every two nodes in each causal model over time.We use our innovative methodology to tackle an important issue with data poisoning assaults in the context of Bayesian networks.With regard to four different forms of data poisoning attacks,we specifically aim to strengthen the security and dependability of Bayesian network structure learning techniques,such as the PC algorithm.By doing this,we explore the complexity of this area and offer workablemethods for identifying and reducing these sneaky dangers.Additionally,our research investigates one particular use case,the“Visit to Asia Network.”The practical consequences of using uncertainty as a way to spot cases of data poisoning are explored in this inquiry,which is of utmost relevance.Our results demonstrate the promising efficacy of latent variables in detecting and mitigating the threat of data poisoning attacks.Additionally,our proposed latent-based framework proves to be sensitive in detecting malicious data poisoning attacks in the context of stream data.

少量样本下基于PCA-BNs的多故障诊断

针对一些工业设备因有标签故障样本数据少而导致诊断准确率低的问题,提出了一种PCA-BNs主成分分析和斯网络(principal component analysis-Bayesian networks, PCA-BNs)结合的多故障网络模型的建模方法。通过PCA对时序信号进行降维,得到相互独立的故障特征,提高提取故障关键信息的能力;利用融合单故障贝叶斯网络构建多故障贝叶斯网络结构的方法,解决BN建模过程耗时的问题;通过高斯分布与极大似然估计结合的方法确定网络参数,提高少量数据BN建模的精度,实现在少量样本下的故障诊断。试验结果表明,基于PCA-BNs的故障诊断方法在少量样本条件下,能实现高精度的故障诊断,并且有效缩减了算法运行时间。

基于AESL-GA的BN球磨机滚动轴承故障诊断方法

针对基于知识的贝叶斯网络(BN)构建方法存在不完全和不精确的缺点,提出一种基于知识引导和数据挖掘的BN结构构建方法。针对单一信号故障诊断结果不精确的问题和故障信息中存在的不确定性问题,将电流信号与振动信号融合建立BN的特征节点,分别提取2种信号的故障特征参数,利用区分度指标法进行特征筛选,将其作为BN结构特征层的节点。将专家知识构建的初始BN结构结合自适应精英结构遗传算法(AESL-GA)进行结构优化,通过自适应限制进化过程中的搜索空间,减少自由参数的数量,提高其全局搜索能力,得到最优BN结构。通过MQY5585溢流型球磨机滚动轴承实测数据和Paderborn University轴承数据集对所提方法进行验证,结果证明了所提方法的有效性。

基于改进BNN-LSTM的风电功率概率预测

针对确定性的风电功率预测难以提供预测结果的波动区间和支撑风险决策的问题,以贝叶斯网络为基础,通过将先验分布置于LSTM网络层权重参数之上,构建了贝叶斯LSTM神经网络(BNN-LSTM)。以时间卷积神经网络(TCNN)处理风电功率预测的历史时序数据,提取时序数据的关联特征。使用互信息熵方法分析了风电功率的气象数据集,剔除关联性小的变量,对气象数据集进行降维处理。并采用嵌入(embedding)结构学习风电功率时间分类特征。随后将TCNN处理后的时序数据、降维后的气象数据以及时间分类特征数据一起送入BNN-LSTM预测模型,通过在某风电数据集不同算法的概率预测指标pinball损失和Winkler评分的对比验证,可知,本文所提方法能从可对风电功率波动做出较为准确的响应,预测效果更好。

Analysis of rockburst mechanism and warning based on microseismic moment tensors and dynamic Bayesian networks

One of the major factors inhibiting the construction of deep underground projects is the risk posed by rockbursts.A study was conducted on the access tunnel of the Shuangjiangkou hydropower station to determine the evolutionary mechanism of microfractures within the surrounding rock mass during rockburst development and develop a rockburst warning model.The study area was chosen through the combination of field studies with an analysis of the spatial and temporal distribution of microseismic(MS)events.The moment tensor inversion method was adopted to study rockburst mechanism,and a dynamic Bayesian network(DBN)was applied to investigating the sensitivity of MS source parameters for rockburst warnings.A MS multivariable rockburst warning model was proposed and validated using two case studies.The results indicate that fractures in the surrounding rock mass during the development of strain-structure rockbursts initially show shear failure and are then followed by tensile failure.The effectiveness of the DBN-based rockburst warning model was demonstrated using self-validation and K-fold cross-validation.Moment magnitude and source radius are the most sensitive factors based on an investigation of the influence on the parent and child nodes in the model,which can serve as important standards for rockburst warnings.The proposed rockburst warning model was found to be effective when applied to two actual projects.

Reliability analysis for wireless communication networks via dynamic Bayesian network

The dynamic wireless communication network is a complex network that needs to consider various influence factors including communication devices,radio propagation,network topology,and dynamic behaviors.Existing works focus on suggesting simplified reliability analysis methods for these dynamic networks.As one of the most popular modeling methodologies,the dynamic Bayesian network(DBN)is proposed.However,it is insufficient for the wireless communication network which contains temporal and non-temporal events.To this end,we present a modeling methodology for a generalized continuous time Bayesian network(CTBN)with a 2-state conditional probability table(CPT).Moreover,a comprehensive reliability analysis method for communication devices and radio propagation is suggested.The proposed methodology is verified by a reliability analysis of a real wireless communication network.

基于Stacking策略的集成BN网络目标威胁评估

现有基于贝叶斯网络的威胁评估采用专家经验确定的朴素结构,其推理评估结果精度欠佳。为此,提出一种融合专家经验与数据观测的基于Stacking策略的集成贝叶斯网络(ensemble Bayesian network,EBN)。首先使用不同搜索空间内的评分优化算法获得数据观测模型集并进行模型平均;然后使用专家经验朴素模型对平均网络进行修剪,形成威胁约束集合;最后以动态规划为基础,通过该集合限制节点序图扩展,以求取全局最优威胁评估网络。在作战想定中,EBN模型单目标威胁概率推理精度比朴素贝叶斯模型高出10%,在多目标威胁排序任务中,其Spearman系数分布亦优于朴素模型。

Uncertainty quantification of predicting stable structures for high-entropy alloys using Bayesian neural networks

High entropy alloys(HEAs)have excellent application prospects in catalysis because of their rich components and configuration space.In this work,we develop a Bayesian neural network(BNN)based on energies calculated with density functional theory to search the configuration space of the CoNiRhRu HEA system.The BNN model was developed by considering six independent features of Co-Ni,Co-Rh,CoRu,Ni-Rh,Ni-Ru,and Rh-Ru in different shells and energies of structures as the labels.The root mean squared error of the energy predicted by BNN is 1.37 me V/atom.Moreover,the influence of feature periodicity on the energy of HEA in theoretical calculations is discussed.We found that when the neural network is optimized to a certain extent,only using the accuracy indicator of root mean square error to evaluate model performance is no longer accurate in some scenarios.More importantly,we reveal the importance of uncertainty quantification for neural networks to predict new structures of HEAs with proper confidence based on BNN.

Bottom hole pressure prediction based on hybrid neural networks and Bayesian optimization

Many scholars have focused on applying machine learning models in bottom hole pressure (BHP) prediction. However, the complex and uncertain conditions in deep wells make it difficult to capture spatial and temporal correlations of measurement while drilling (MWD) data with traditional intelligent models. In this work, we develop a novel hybrid neural network, which integrates the Convolution Neural Network (CNN) and the Gate Recurrent Unit (GRU) for predicting BHP fluctuations more accurately. The CNN structure is used to analyze spatial local dependency patterns and the GRU structure is used to discover depth variation trends of MWD data. To further improve the prediction accuracy, we explore two types of GRU-based structure: skip-GRU and attention-GRU, which can capture more long-term potential periodic correlation in drilling data. Then, the different model structures tuned by the Bayesian optimization (BO) algorithm are compared and analyzed. Results indicate that the hybrid models can extract spatial-temporal information of data effectively and predict more accurately than random forests, extreme gradient boosting, back propagation neural network, CNN and GRU. The CNN-attention-GRU model with BO algorithm shows great superiority in prediction accuracy and robustness due to the hybrid network structure and attention mechanism, having the lowest mean absolute percentage error of 0.025%. This study provides a reference for solving the problem of extracting spatial and temporal characteristics and guidance for managed pressure drilling in complex formations.

基于DBN的风电机组变桨系统可靠性动态评估

为了对风电机组变桨系统的潜在风险进行可靠的动态预测,针对变桨系统部件种类多、系统复杂、故障特征提取困难的问题,文章首先对变桨系统故障点和故障传递过程进行归纳分析,建立故障树;然后将其转化为融合Leaky Noisy-Or节点的动态贝叶斯网络(DBN),保证了模型精度并具备了动态预测能力;最后采用5折交叉验证的方式对模型进行寻优并验证。测试结果表明,该方法在对变桨系统进行风险预测、故障致因分析、风险动态演化过程分析方面准确率较高,可指导变桨系统进行预防性维护,在保证风电机组整体安全方面具有工程应用价值。

BN-GEPSO:Learning Bayesian Network Structure Using Generalized Particle Swarm Optimization

At present Bayesian Networks(BN)are being used widely for demonstrating uncertain knowledge in many disciplines,including biology,computer science,risk analysis,service quality analysis,and business.But they suffer from the problem that when the nodes and edges increase,the structure learning difficulty increases and algorithms become inefficient.To solve this problem,heuristic optimization algorithms are used,which tend to find a near-optimal answer rather than an exact one,with particle swarm optimization(PSO)being one of them.PSO is a swarm intelligence-based algorithm having basic inspiration from flocks of birds(how they search for food).PSO is employed widely because it is easier to code,converges quickly,and can be parallelized easily.We use a recently proposed version of PSO called generalized particle swarm optimization(GEPSO)to learn bayesian network structure.We construct an initial directed acyclic graph(DAG)by using the max-min parent’s children(MMPC)algorithm and cross relative average entropy.ThisDAGis used to create a population for theGEPSO optimization procedure.Moreover,we propose a velocity update procedure to increase the efficiency of the algorithmic search process.Results of the experiments show that as the complexity of the dataset increases,our algorithm Bayesian network generalized particle swarm optimization(BN-GEPSO)outperforms the PSO algorithm in terms of the Bayesian information criterion(BIC)score.

An evaluation method of contribution rate based on fuzzy Bayesian networks for equipment system-of-systems architecture

The contribution rate of equipment system-of-systems architecture(ESoSA)is an important index to evaluate the equipment update,development,and architecture optimization.Since the traditional ESoSA contribution rate evaluation method does not make full use of the fuzzy information and uncertain information in the equipment system-of-systems(ESoS),and the Bayesian network is an effective tool to solve the uncertain information,a new ESoSA contribution rate evaluation method based on the fuzzy Bayesian network(FBN)is proposed.Firstly,based on the operation loop theory,an ESoSA is constructed considering three aspects:reconnaissance equipment,decision equipment,and strike equipment.Next,the fuzzy set theory is introduced to construct the FBN of ESoSA to deal with fuzzy information and uncertain information.Furthermore,the fuzzy importance index of the root node of the FBN is used to calculate the contribution rate of the ESoSA,and the ESoSA contribution rate evaluation model based on the root node fuzzy importance is established.Finally,the feasibility and rationality of this method are validated via an empirical case study of aviation ESoSA.Compared with traditional methods,the evaluation method based on FBN takes various failure states of equipment into consideration,is free of acquiring accurate probability of traditional equipment failure,and models the uncertainty of the relationship between equipment.The proposed method not only supplements and improves the ESoSA contribution rate assessment method,but also broadens the application scope of the Bayesian network.

基于FDHHFLTS-BN的海底管道泄漏失效风险定量分析

为预防海底油气管道泄漏失效事故,提出基于自由双层次犹豫模糊语言术语集(FDHHFLTS)和贝叶斯网络(BN)的FDHHFLTS-BN风险分析方法,用于分析海底油气管道泄漏失效事故概率及事故的关键风险因素。将故障树模型转换为BN结构,由专家根据FDHHFLTS评估基本事件发生可能性;采用最佳最差法(BWM)确定专家权重,结合相似性聚合方法(SAM)聚合专家意见;依据构建的BN模型,正向推理得到事故发生概率,反向推理得到后验概率,并进行敏感性分析。将该方法应用于实例分析,结果表明:分析段海底管道泄漏事故的概率值为P=6.20×10^(-3);焊缝施工缺陷、材料施工缺陷和渔具作用等为事故发生的关键因素;与传统方法对比分析结果证明,所提方法在确定海底管道风险方面具有一定的优势。

基于BN-AHP的UUV系统效能评估方法

提出了一种结合层次分析法(Analytic Hierarchy Process,AHP)和贝叶斯网络(Bayesian Networks,BN)的新型效能评估方法。首先,梳理提炼了UUV(Unmanned underwater vehicle,UUV)效能评估的五个维度;其次,利用AHP方法为每个维度建立了指标体系,并将其作为贝叶斯网络的节点输入,从而将不确定性因素纳入评估过程;随后,通过贝叶斯推理得出UUV效能评估值;最后,通过计算机仿真与传统AHP法,信息熵和人工神经网络法进行对比,实验结果表明,所提的方法相较于传统AHP方法和信息熵方法的评估结果更具收敛性和集中度,相较于人工神经网络方法可以在数据缺乏的情况下完成评估,同时在效能影响因子分析和方案优选方面更具区分度。

基于BN-AHP的装甲车辆动力系统故障状态评估

装甲车辆复杂传统部件的损伤能否及时被发现,这关系到整车战备或作战能力,系统的故障状态评估是至关重要的。将贝叶斯网络模型结合云模型理论,建立云贝叶斯网络模型,针对4个不同工况的装甲车辆进行故障状态评估。在获取贝叶斯网络初始节点时更多是依靠专家经验,往往会带来很大的误差,导致条件概率偏差过大,采用证据理论/层次分析法来优化专家经验,确定各个节点的条件概率;将层次分析法转化所得的条件概率值代入到云贝叶斯网络模型中,经过计算可以得到不同损毁等级的概率。将云贝叶斯网络模型计算结果与其他状态评估方法结果进行对比分析,结果表明,所采用的计算方法较其他方法在可靠性和准确性方面有所提高。

基于熵权优化FFR-BN法的梁式渡槽运行风险评价

梁式渡槽运行受多种风险因素影响,各因素之间联系及作用关系的复杂性及对因素认知的局限性常常造成风险评价结果不够精确,对此提出基于熵权优化的FFR-BN法开展梁式渡槽运行风险分析。此方法采用熵权法对主观与客观权重进行融合优化,有效解决了传统评价方法中专家打分低精度及强主观性问题。通过解释结构模型将梁式渡槽复杂系统拆分为各种子系统(因素、要素),随后分析风险因子之间的直接二元关系,从而构建复杂系统内风险因子、风险事件之间的逻辑关系框架,并在此基础上计算因子的模糊失效概率,运用贝叶斯网络的反向推理技术确定风险事件发生的最大可能路径、梁式渡槽运行风险中决定性风险因子。通过此方法计算得出实例梁式渡槽综合风险等级为Ⅰ级,关键致灾风险因子为设计洪水增加、钢筋失效、表层混凝土剥蚀、材料特性等,受所处区域地形及地质条件影响,裹头边坡防护问题导致的风险致因链是最大可能风险致因链。

Rock mass quality prediction on tunnel faces with incomplete multi-source dataset via tree-augmented naive Bayesian network

Rock mass quality serves as a vital index for predicting the stability and safety status of rock tunnel faces.In tunneling practice,the rock mass quality is often assessed via a combination of qualitative and quantitative parameters.However,due to the harsh on-site construction conditions,it is rather difficult to obtain some of the evaluation parameters which are essential for the rock mass quality prediction.In this study,a novel improved Swin Transformer is proposed to detect,segment,and quantify rock mass characteristic parameters such as water leakage,fractures,weak interlayers.The site experiment results demonstrate that the improved Swin Transformer achieves optimal segmentation results and achieving accuracies of 92%,81%,and 86%for water leakage,fractures,and weak interlayers,respectively.A multisource rock tunnel face characteristic(RTFC)dataset includes 11 parameters for predicting rock mass quality is established.Considering the limitations in predictive performance of incomplete evaluation parameters exist in this dataset,a novel tree-augmented naive Bayesian network(BN)is proposed to address the challenge of the incomplete dataset and achieved a prediction accuracy of 88%.In comparison with other commonly used Machine Learning models the proposed BN-based approach proved an improved performance on predicting the rock mass quality with the incomplete dataset.By utilizing the established BN,a further sensitivity analysis is conducted to quantitatively evaluate the importance of the various parameters,results indicate that the rock strength and fractures parameter exert the most significant influence on rock mass quality.

System Reliability Analysis Method Based on T-S FTA and HE-BN

For high-reliability systems in military,aerospace,and railway fields,the challenges of reliability analysis lie in dealing with unclear failure mechanisms,complex fault relationships,lack of fault data,and uncertainty of fault states.To overcome these problems,this paper proposes a reliability analysismethod based on T-S fault tree analysis(T-S FTA)and Hyper-ellipsoidal Bayesian network(HE-BN).The method describes the connection between the various systemfault events by T-S fuzzy gates and translates them into a Bayesian network(BN)model.Combining the advantages of T-S fault tree modeling with the advantages of Bayesian network computation,a reliability modeling method is proposed that can fully reflect the fault characteristics of complex systems.Experts describe the degree of failure of the event in the form of interval numbers.The knowledge and experience of experts are fused with the D-S evidence theory to obtain the initial failure probability interval of the BN root node.Then,the Hyper-ellipsoidal model(HM)constrains the initial failure probability interval and constructs a HE-BN for the system.A reliability analysismethod is proposed to solve the problem of insufficient failure data and uncertainty in the degree of failure.The failure probability of the system is further calculated and the key components that affect the system’s reliability are identified.The proposedmethod accounts for the uncertainty and incompleteness of the failure data in complex multi-state systems and establishes an easily computable reliability model that fully reflects the characteristics of complex faults and accurately identifies system weaknesses.The feasibility and accuracy of the method are further verified by conducting case studies.

Bayesian network-based survival prediction model for patients having undergone post-transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt for portal hypertension

BACKGROUND Portal hypertension(PHT),primarily induced by cirrhosis,manifests severe symptoms impacting patient survival.Although transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt(TIPS)is a critical intervention for managing PHT,it carries risks like hepatic encephalopathy,thus affecting patient survival prognosis.To our knowledge,existing prognostic models for post-TIPS survival in patients with PHT fail to account for the interplay among and collective impact of various prognostic factors on outcomes.Consequently,the development of an innovative modeling approach is essential to address this limitation.AIM To develop and validate a Bayesian network(BN)-based survival prediction model for patients with cirrhosis-induced PHT having undergone TIPS.METHODS The clinical data of 393 patients with cirrhosis-induced PHT who underwent TIPS surgery at the Second Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University between January 2015 and May 2022 were retrospectively analyzed.Variables were selected using Cox and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression methods,and a BN-based model was established and evaluated to predict survival in patients having undergone TIPS surgery for PHT.RESULTS Variable selection revealed the following as key factors impacting survival:age,ascites,hypertension,indications for TIPS,postoperative portal vein pressure(post-PVP),aspartate aminotransferase,alkaline phosphatase,total bilirubin,prealbumin,the Child-Pugh grade,and the model for end-stage liver disease(MELD)score.Based on the above-mentioned variables,a BN-based 2-year survival prognostic prediction model was constructed,which identified the following factors to be directly linked to the survival time:age,ascites,indications for TIPS,concurrent hypertension,post-PVP,the Child-Pugh grade,and the MELD score.The Bayesian information criterion was 3589.04,and 10-fold cross-validation indicated an average log-likelihood loss of 5.55 with a standard deviation of 0.16.The model’s accuracy,precision,recall,and F1 score were 0.90,0.92,0.97,and 0.95 respectively,with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve being 0.72.CONCLUSION This study successfully developed a BN-based survival prediction model with good predictive capabilities.It offers valuable insights for treatment strategies and prognostic evaluations in patients having undergone TIPS surgery for PHT.

基于FUZZY-BN-FTA的厂区架空燃气管道泄漏可能性研究

为研究厂区架空燃气管道泄漏的故的可能性,提出模糊数学方法、贝叶斯网络模型以及故障树模型相结合的集成模型。通过GeNIe软件建立架空燃气管道泄漏事故的模糊贝叶斯网络模型;引入Leaky Noisy-or Gate扩展模型对模糊贝叶斯网络中节点的条件概率表进行修正,结合基本事件先验概率预测架空燃气管道泄漏的概率值,并引入3个基本事件重要度确定基本事件的重要性排序,同时进行敏感性分析确定主要影响因素,提出控制措施。研究结果表明:厂区车辆撞击、管道疲劳损耗、管材质量不佳、安装设计不合理、焊接缺陷为导致架空燃气管道泄漏的主要因素。研究结果可为工业企业安全管理人员有针对性地制定控制措施,减少事故发生率提供参考。