基于24Model-D-ISM的地铁站火灾疏散影响因素研究

为预防地铁站火灾事故,深入了解地铁站火灾人员疏散影响因素间的内在联系与层次结构,基于第6版“2-4”模型(24Model)分析63起地铁站火灾疏散事故,充分考虑各个因素之间的交互作用,提取19个影响地铁站人员疏散的关键因素,建立地铁站火灾人员疏散影响因素指标体系;采用算子客观赋权法(C-OWA)改进决策试验与评价实验法(DEMATEL),确定地铁站火灾人员疏散的重要影响因素;在此基础上,采用解释结构模型(ISM)分析各个因素间的层次结构及相互作用路径,构建地铁站火灾人员疏散影响因素的多级递阶结构模型。研究结果表明:疏散引导、恐慌从众行为、人员拥挤为地铁站火灾人员疏散的关键影响因素;地铁站火灾人员疏散受表层因素、中间层因素、深层因素共同作用的影响,其中,疏散教育与培训、设施维护与检查、疏散预案等因素是根源影响因素,重视根源影响因素的改善有利于从本质上预防和控制事故的发生。

24Model与LCM原因因素定义对比研究

为探究损失致因模型(LCM)原因因素定义与事故致因“2-4”模型(24Model)存在的异同和优缺点,梳理2个模型各层面原因和结果的定义,对比定义内容及其对事故原因分析等安全实务的指导作用,并以一起瓦斯爆炸事故为例加以实证分析,获得二者分析结果之间的差异。研究结果表明:LCM是首个将管理因素纳入事故致因分析的一维事件序列模型,可明确各层面原因因素的定义和因素间的逻辑关系,但部分定义存在交叉重复的问题,并没有揭示安全工作指导思想等深层次事故致因因素;24Model作为系统性事故致因模型,对各类因素的定义均以组织为主体,描述事件、事故、安全的概念内涵,划分个体安全动作、安全能力和组织安全管理体系的类别并给出含义解析,探究组织安全文化层面的问题并以32个元素体现;2个模型的事故原因分析方法均建立在对各层级原因因素定义的基础上,并适用于模型理论体系本身。

Fixed-Bed Column Adsorption Modeling of MnO4- Ions from Acidic Aqueous Solutions on Activated Carbons Prepared with the Biomass

Activated carbons calcined at 400˚C and 600˚C (AC-400 and AC-600), prepared using palm nuts, collected in the town of Franceville in Gabon, were used to study the dynamic adsorption of MnO4- ions in acidic media on fixed bed column and on the kinetic modeling of experimental data of breakthrough curves of MnO4- ions obtained. Results on the adsorption of MnO4- ions in fixed-bed dynamics obtained on AC-400 and AC-600 adsorbents beds indicated that the AC-400 bed appears to be the most efficient in removing MnO4- ions in acidic media. Indeed, the adsorbed amounts, the adsorbed capacities at saturation and the elimination percentage of MnO4- ions obtained with AC-400 (31.24 mg;52.06 mg·g-1 and 41.65% respectively) were higher compared to those obtained with AC-600 (9.87 mg;16.45 mg·g-1 and 17.79% respectively). The breakthrough curves kinetic modeling revealed that the Thomas model and the pseudo-first-order kinetic model were the most suitable models to describe the adsorption of MnO4- ions on adsorbents studied in our experimental conditions. The results of the intraparticle diffusion model showed that intraparticle diffusion was involved in the adsorption mechanism of MnO4- ions on investigated adsorbents and was not the limiting step and the only process controlling MnO4- ions adsorption. In contrast to AC-400, the intraparticle diffusion on AC-600 bed plays an important role in the adsorption mechanism of MnO4- ions.

基于“2-4”模型和Apriori算法的商业综合体火灾成因分析

为深入分析商业综合体火灾事故成因,揭示事故致因因素之间的关联规则,运用事故致因“2-4”模型和Apriori算法,对40起商业综合体火灾事故原因进行分析,研究结果表明:在组织文化、管理体系、个体能力和个体动作4个层面中,安全主体责任的认识(100%)、安全管理制度未执行(80%)、无安全培训(70%)等因素是火灾事故的主要原因;通过Apriori算法挖掘出277条关联规则,并从高支持度、高置信度和高提升度3个维度进行深入分析,发现员工参与度与防火意识薄弱、安全管理知识匮乏与报警意识薄弱且应急响应不及时等因素之间存在显著关联。基于分析结果,提出加强安全责任意识、完善管理制度执行、强化安全培训等针对性建议,为商业综合体火灾预防提供理论依据和实践指导。

24 Model在道路运输事故成因中的应用

为预防道路运输事故,基于事故致因“2-4”(24 Model)模型,对2015—2021年发生的215起道路运输事故的行为原因进行研究。从个人层面和组织层面分析导致事故发生的直接原因、间接原因、根本原因及其根源原因。结果表明:发生频次最多的不安全动作是驾驶员超速行驶(占10.67%);22.33%的道路运输事故存在管理者违章安排无资质员工上岗作业;管理者和领导者对57.67%的道路运输事故的发生有重要影响;由人为因素产生的不安全物态占比达71.53%;驾驶员、车辆安全生产管理制度欠缺或执行不到位在根本原因中尤为突出(占20.92%)。基于此,提出道路运输事故预防对策并构建出道路运输系统各因素关系图。

IFAM与24Model的对比研究

为完善和推动事故致因理论的发展,提高事故防控水平,在对信息流事故致因模型(IFAM)和事故致因2-4模型(24Model)理论基础、组成要素和分析过程对比研究的基础上,通过实例分析辨识二者之间的异同。研究结果表明:IFAM与24Model都有较强的理论基础,部分组成要素存在对应关系,但原因类别划分存在差异。IFAM以信息流和组织为研究对象,研究过程相对复杂,更适用于分析单起事故;24Model以组织为研究对象,事故原因模块通用性和逻辑性强,适用于分析单起或某类事故。在实际应用中,IFAM与24Model均可用于事故调查分析和事故分级定责,具有一定的理论和实践价值。IFAM通过信息流表征事故致因,直观描述组织外部原因因素,但对个体能力的深入研究欠缺;而24Model认为组织外部因素需要通过组织内部原因模块的欠缺体现,认为个体能力是引发事故的间接原因并进行细致分析,但对组织间相关关系的探究欠缺。研究结果可为事故预防工作提供新视角和理论支撑。

基于24Model的房屋市政工程事故致因组态研究

为探索房屋市政工程事故的影响因素与关联组态路径,依据案例的完整性、代表性与可靠性选取2018—2022年发生的70起较大及以上规模房屋市政工程生产安全事故作为研究对象,运用定性比较分析方法和“2-4”模型寻找该类事故的致因组态。研究结果表明:组织安全管理体系的执行情况是导致事故发生的重要影响因素;安全文化型和不安全动作型是事故的主要发生机制;事故致因与结果之间存在多重并发的因果关系。房屋市政工程生产安全管理需夯实安全管理体系,利用致因组态强化事故预防措施,以改善工程的经济与社会效益。

Parameter Extraction for 2-π Equivalent Circuit Model of RF CMOS Spiral Inductors

A novel parameter extraction method with rational functions is presented for the 2-πequivalent circuit model of RF CMOS spiral inductors. The final S-parameters simulated by the circuit model closely match experimental data. The extraction strategy is straightforward and can be easily implemented as a CAD tool to model spiral inductors. The resulting circuit models will be very useful for RF circuit designers.

A hybrid Lagrangian-Eulerian numerical model for sea-ice dynamics

A hybrid Lagrangian - Eulerian （HLE） method is developed for sea ice dynamics, which combines the high computational efficiency of finite difference method （FDM） with the high numerical accuracy of smoothed particle hydrodynamics （SPH）. In this HLE model, the sea ice cover is represented by a group of Lagrangian ice particles with their own thicknesses and concentrations. These ice variables are interpolated to the Eularian gird nodes using the Gaussian interpolation function. The FDM is used to determine the ice velocities at Eulerian grid nodes, and the velocities of Lagrangian ice particles are interpolated from these grid velocities with the Gaussian function also. The thicknesses and concentrations of ice particles are determined based on their new locations. With the HLE numerical model, the ice ridging process in a rectangular basin is simulated, and the simulated results are validated with the analytical solution. This method is also applied to the simulation of sea ice dynamics in a vortex wind field. At last, this HLE model is applied to the Bohai Sea, and the simulated concentration, thickness and velocity match the satellite images and the field observed data well.

Analysis of axial strain in one-dimensional loading by different models

Different phenomenological equations based on plasticity, primary creep （as a viscoplastic mechanism）, secondary creep （as another viscoplastic mechanism） and different combinations of these equations are presented and used to describe the material inelastic deformation in uniaxial test. Agreement of the models with experimental results and with the theoretical concepts and physical realities is the criterion of choosing the most appropriate formulation for uniaxial test. A model is thus proposed in which plastic deformation, primary creep and secondary creep contribute to the inelastic deformation. However, it is believed that the hardening parameter is composed of plastic and primary creep parts. Accordingly, the axial plastic strain in a uniaxial test may no longer be considered as the hardening parameter. Therefore, a proportionality concept is proposed to calculate the plastic contribution of deformation.

Analytical models for the penetration of semi-infinite targets by rigid,deformable and erosive long rods

A theoretical study is presented herein on the pen- etration of a semi-infinite target by a spherical-headed long rod for Yp 〉 S, where Yp is the penetrator strength and S is the static target resistance. For Yp 〉 S, depending upon initial impact velocity, there exist three types of penetration, namely, penetration by a rigid long rod, penetration by a deforming non-erosive long rod and penetration by an erosive long rod. If the impact velocity of the penetrator is higher than the hydrodynamic velocity （VH）, it will penetrate the target in an erosive mode; if the impact velocity lies between the hydrodynamic velocity （VH） and the rigid body velocity （VR）, it will penetrate the target in a deformable mode; if the impact velocity is less than the rigid body velocity （VR）, it will penetrate the target in a rigid mode. The critical conditions for the transition among these three penetration modes are proposed. It is demonstrated that the present model predictions correlate well with the experimental observations in terms of depth of penetration （DOP） and the critical transition conditions.

Periodic Packing Mode for Trickle-Bed Reactors: Experiments and Modeling

A periodic packing mode of trickle-bed reactor (TBR) for the gas limited reaction was proposed. Hy-drogenation of 2-ethylanthraquinone over Pd/Al2O3 in a laboratory-scale TBR was taken as a test reaction for determining whether the periodic packing mode is advantageous. The effects of operating conditions and packing type on TBR performance were experimentally examined to demonstrate the cause-effect relationships. A mathe-matic model of TBR considering axial dispersion and fractional wetting was developed to quantitatively illuminate the reason of performance enhancement.

Numerical analysis of the failure process of soil-rock mixtures through computed tomography and PFC3D models

Soil-rock mixture （SRM） is a unique type of geomaterial characterized by a heterogeneous composition and a complicated structure. It is intractable for the continuum-based soil and rock mechanics theories to accurately characterize and predict the SRM＇s mechanical properties. This study reports a novel numerical method incorporating microfocus computed tomography and PFC3D codes to probe the deformation and failure processes of SRM. The three-dimensional （3D） PFC models that represent the SRM＇s complex structures were built. By simulating the entire failure process in PFC3D, the SRM＇s strength, elastic modulus and crack growth were obtained. The influence of rock ratios on the SRM＇s strength, deformation and failure processes, as well as its internal mesoscale mechanism, were analyzed. By comparing simulation results with experimental data, it was verified that the 3D PFC models were in good agreement with SRM＇s real structure and the SRM＇s compression process, deformation and failure patterns; its intrinsic mesomechanism can be effectively analyzed based on such 3D PFC models.

Roll System and Stock's Multi-parameter Coupling Dynamic Modeling Based on the Shape Control of Steel Strip

The existence of rolling deformation area in the rolling mill system is the main characteristic which dis- tinguishes the other machinery. In order to analyze the dynamic property of roll system＇s flexural deformation, it is necessary to consider the transverse periodic movement of stock in the rolling deformation area which is caused by the flexural deformation movement of roll system simul- taneously. Therefore, the displacement field of roll system and flow of metal in the deformation area is described by kinematic analysis in the dynamic system. Through intro- ducing the lateral displacement function of metal in the deformation area, the dynamic variation of per unit width rolling force can be determined at the same time. Then the coupling law caused by the co-effect of rigid movement and flexural deformation of the system structural elements is determined. Furthermore, a multi-parameter coupling dynamic model of the roll system and stock is established by the principle of virtual work. More explicitly, the cou- pled motion modal analysis was made for the roll system. Meanwhile, the analytical solutions for the flexural defor- mation movement＇s mode shape functions of rolls are discussed. In addition, the dynamic characteristic of the lateral flow of metal in the rolling deformation area has been analyzed at the same time. The establishment ofdynamic lateral displacement function of metal in the deformation area makes the foundation for analyzing the coupling law between roll system and rolling deformation area, and provides a theoretical basis for the realization of the dynamic shape control of steel strip.

Investment in deepwater oil and gas exploration projects:a multi-factor analysis with a real options model

Deepwater oil and gas projects embody high risks from geology and engineering aspects, which exert substantial influence on project valuation. But the uncer- tainties may be converted to additional value to the projects in the case of flexible management. Given the flexibility of project management, this paper extends the classical real options model to a multi-factor model which contains oil price, geology, and engineering uncertainties. It then gives an application example of the new model to evaluate deepwater oil and gas projects with a numerical analytical method. Compared with other methods and models, this multi-factor real options model contains more project information. It reflects the potential value deriving not only from oil price variation but also from geology and engi- neering uncertainties, which provides more accurate and reliable valuation information for decision makers.

Modelling of Quasi 3-D Groundwater Flow and Studying of Equivalent Drainage Boundary in Beihai Peninsula,Guangxi

This paper describes a quasi 3-D finite element model of the groundwater flow in two -aquifer system which is constructed from a sequence of aquifer flow equations coupled by leakage terms representing flow through the aquitard . It is applied to evaluate the maximum rate of groundwater resources exploited from the coastal aquifer without seawater intrusion . The main task in this model is to determine the drainage boundary of the aquifer extending under the sea . The information of the boundary can be obtained from the fluctuations of the groundwater level caused by sea-tide fluctuations . A new idea, Equivalent Drainage Boundary (EDB), is proposed and the corresponding methods , determining the EDB, are developed with tidal fluctuations data observed in boreholes . The quasi 3-D model and the methods determining EDB have been applied to the aquifer system of Beihai peninsula , Guangxi Autonomous Region of China for calculating the available groundwater resources .

Kinetic Modeling the Formation of Low-mature Gases and Analysis of the Possibility to Be Accumulated

At present, shallow gases have received much attention due to low cost in exploration and production. Low-mature gases, as one significant origin to shallow gas, turns to be an important research topic. The present understanding of low-mature gases is confined within some geological cases, and few laboratory studies have been reported. Therefore, the potential and characters of low- mature gases are not clear up to now. Here, two premature samples （one coal and the other shale） were pyrolyzed in a gold confined system. The gaseous components including hydrocarbon gases and non-hydrocarbon gases were analyzed. Based on kinetic modeling, the formation of low-mature gases was modeled. The results showed that during low mature stage, about 178 mL/gTOC gas was generated from the shale and 100 mL/gTOC from the coal. Two third to three fourth of the generated gases are non-hydrocarbon gases such as H2S and CO2. The total yields of C1-5 for the two samples are almost the same, 30-40 mL/gTOC, but individual gaseous hydrocarbon is different. The shale has much lower C1 but higher C2-5, whereas the coal has higher C1 but lower C2-5. Hydrocarbon gases formed during low-mature stage are very wet. The stable carbon isotope ratios of methane range from -40‰ to -50‰ （PDB）, in good consistence with empiric criterion for low-mature gases summed up by the previous researchers. The generation characters suggest that the low-mature gases could be accumulated to form an economic gas reservoir, but most of them occur only as associated gases.

A Numerical Algorithm Based on Quadratic Finite Element for Two-Dimensional Nonlinear Time Fractional Thermal Diffusion Model

In this article,a high-order scheme,which is formulated by combining the quadratic finite element method in space with a second-order time discrete scheme,is developed for looking for the numerical solution of a two-dimensional nonlinear time fractional thermal diffusion model.The time Caputo fractional derivative is approximated by using the L2-1formula,the first-order derivative and nonlinear term are discretized by some second-order approximation formulas,and the quadratic finite element is used to approximate the spatial direction.The error accuracy O(h3+
t2)is obtained,which is verified by the numerical results.

Thermodynamic modeling and phase diagram prediction of salt lake brine systemsⅡ.Aqueous Li^(+)-Na^(+)-K^(+)-SO_(4)^(2-) and its subsystems

It is still a challenging task to accurately and temperature-continuously express the thermodynamic properties and phase equilibrium behaviors of the salt-lake brine with multi-component,multitemperature and high concentration.The essential subsystem of sulfate type brine,aqueous Li^(+)-Na^(+)-K^(+)-SO_(4)^(2-) and its subsystems across a temperature range from 250 K to 643 K are investigated with the improved comprehensive thermodynamic model.Liquid parameters(Δg_(IJ),Δh_(IJ),and ΔC_(p,IJ))associated with the contributions of Gibbs energy,enthalpy,and heat capacity to the binary interaction parameters,i.e.the temperature coefficients of eNRTL parameters formulated with a Gibbs Helmholtz expression,are determined via multi-objective optimization method.The solid constantsΔ_(f)G_(k)°^((298.15))andΔ_(f)H_(k)°^((298.15))of11 solid species occurred in the quaternary system are rebuilt from multi-temperature solubilities.The modeling results show the accurate representation of(1)solution properties and binary phase diagram at temperature ranges from eutectic points to 643 K;(2)isothermal phase diagrams for Li_(2)SO_(4)-Na_(2)SO_(4)-H_(2)O,Li_(2)SO_(4)-K_(2)SO_(4)-H_(2)O and Na_(2)SO_(4)-K_(2)SO_(4)-H_(2)O ternary systems.The predicted results of complete structure and polythermal phase diagram of ternary systems and the isothermal phase diagrams of quaternary system excellently match with the experimental data.

STPA与24Model的对比分析

为完善和发展事故致因理论,从基础理论、相关定义、分析过程和分析难度4个方面,对比分析系统理论过程分析(STPA)与“2-4”模型(24Model),并分别进行实例应用。研究结果表明:两者都有很强的理论基础;24Model和STPA总体依照线性模式展开,部分元素可得到对应。STPA的研究对象为系统中的损失,更擅长系统交互研究,研究复杂程度较高,研究误差较大,更适用于单起事故分析;而24Model的研究对象为组织中的事件,事故原因划分更加明确与通用,分析过程简单,研究误差较小,在单起事故和多起事故分析中均可使用,两者都具有较好的拓展性。在应用方面,STPA能够明确指出系统内危险源与损害的联系,但应用过程复杂,致因因素分析主观性强,缺乏对管理体系和安全文化的研究;24Model原因分析结果全面,应用步骤明确,但缺乏对组织间的交互和设计缺陷分析。