This study aimed to examine the performance of the Siegel-Tukey and Savage tests on data sets with heterogeneous variances. The analysis, considering Normal, Platykurtic, and Skewed distributions and a standard deviat...This study aimed to examine the performance of the Siegel-Tukey and Savage tests on data sets with heterogeneous variances. The analysis, considering Normal, Platykurtic, and Skewed distributions and a standard deviation ratio of 1, was conducted for both small and large sample sizes. For small sample sizes, two main categories were established: equal and different sample sizes. Analyses were performed using Monte Carlo simulations with 20,000 repetitions for each scenario, and the simulations were evaluated using SAS software. For small sample sizes, the I. type error rate of the Siegel-Tukey test generally ranged from 0.045 to 0.055, while the I. type error rate of the Savage test was observed to range from 0.016 to 0.041. Similar trends were observed for Platykurtic and Skewed distributions. In scenarios with different sample sizes, the Savage test generally exhibited lower I. type error rates. For large sample sizes, two main categories were established: equal and different sample sizes. For large sample sizes, the I. type error rate of the Siegel-Tukey test ranged from 0.047 to 0.052, while the I. type error rate of the Savage test ranged from 0.043 to 0.051. In cases of equal sample sizes, both tests generally had lower error rates, with the Savage test providing more consistent results for large sample sizes. In conclusion, it was determined that the Savage test provides lower I. type error rates for small sample sizes and that both tests have similar error rates for large sample sizes. These findings suggest that the Savage test could be a more reliable option when analyzing variance differences.展开更多
Self-positioning of a shearer is the key technology for mining with a man-less working face. In an underground coal mine all radio navigation; satellite positioning or celestial navigation methods have their limitatio...Self-positioning of a shearer is the key technology for mining with a man-less working face. In an underground coal mine all radio navigation; satellite positioning or celestial navigation methods have their limitations. We analyzed an inertial navi-gation system intended to guide the movement a shearer and designed a self-positioning device for the shearer. Simulation tests were also performed on the system. We analyzed the errors observed in these tests to show that the main reason for the low preci-sion of the self-positioning system is accumulated error in the inertial sensor. A Kalman filtering algorithm used in combination with the shearer motion model effectively reduces the measurement errors of the self-positioning system by compensating for gyroscopic drift. Finally, we built an error compensation model to reduce accumulated errors using continuous correction to provide self-positioning of the shearer within a certain range of accuracy.展开更多
Compared with the traditional non-cutting measurement,machining tests can more accurately reflect the kinematic errors of five-axis machine tools in the actual machining process for the users.However,measurement and c...Compared with the traditional non-cutting measurement,machining tests can more accurately reflect the kinematic errors of five-axis machine tools in the actual machining process for the users.However,measurement and calculation of the machining tests in the literature are quite difficult and time-consuming.A new method of the machining tests for the trunnion axis of five-axis machine tool is proposed.Firstly,a simple mathematical model of the cradle-type five-axis machine tool was established by optimizing the coordinate system settings based on robot kinematics.Then,the machining tests based on error-sensitive directions were proposed to identify the kinematic errors of the trunnion axis of cradle-type five-axis machine tool.By adopting the error-sensitive vectors in the matrix calculation,the functional relationship equations between the machining errors of the test piece in the error-sensitive directions and the kinematic errors of C-axis and A-axis of five-axis machine tool rotary table was established based on the model of the kinematic errors.According to our previous work,the kinematic errors of C-axis can be treated as the known quantities,and the kinematic errors of A-axis can be obtained from the equations.This method was tested in Mikron UCP600 vertical machining center.The machining errors in the error-sensitive directions can be obtained by CMM inspection from the finished test piece to identify the kinematic errors of five-axis machine tool trunnion axis.Experimental results demonstrated that the proposed method can reduce the complexity,cost,and the time consumed substantially,and has a wider applicability.This paper proposes a new method of the machining tests for the trunnion axis of five-axis machine tool.展开更多
This paper presents an approach for estimating power of the score test, based on an asymptotic approximation to the power of the score test under contiguous alternatives. The method is applied to the problem of power ...This paper presents an approach for estimating power of the score test, based on an asymptotic approximation to the power of the score test under contiguous alternatives. The method is applied to the problem of power calculations for the score test of heteroscedasticity in European rabbit data (Ratkowsky, 1983). Simulation studies are presented which indicate that the asymptotic approximation to the finite-sample situation is good over a wide range of parameter configurations.展开更多
The large transformer is pivotal equipment in an electric power supply system; Its partial discharge test and the induced voltage withstand test on large transformers are carried out at a frequency about twice the wor...The large transformer is pivotal equipment in an electric power supply system; Its partial discharge test and the induced voltage withstand test on large transformers are carried out at a frequency about twice the working frequency. If the magnetizing inductance cannot compensate for the stray capacitance, the test sample turns into a capacitive load and a capacitive rise exhibits in the testing circuit. For self-restoring insulation, a method has been recommended in IEC60-1 that an unapproved measuring system be calibrated by an approved system at a voltage not less than 50% of the rated testing voltage, and the result then be extrapolated linearly. It has been found that this method leads to great error due to the capacitive rise if it is not correctly used during a withstand voltage test under certain testing conditions, especiaUy for a test on high voltage transformers with large capacity. Since the withstand voltage test is the most important means to examine the operation reliability of a transformer, and it can be destructive to the insulation, a precise measurement must be guaranteed. In this paper a factor, named as the capacitive rise factor, is introduced to assess the rise. The voltage measurement error during the calibration is determined by the parameters of the test sample and the testing facilities, as well as the measuring point. Based on theoretical analysis in this paper, a novel method is suggested and demonstrated to estimate the error by using the capacitive rise factor and other known parame- ters of the testing circuit.展开更多
To analyze the attitude errors of vertical docking test system of small satellite,the static error and kinematic error of test system are considered.The working principle of test system and coordinate of actuator are ...To analyze the attitude errors of vertical docking test system of small satellite,the static error and kinematic error of test system are considered.The working principle of test system and coordinate of actuator are introduced.The model of friction torque on the joints and torque on docking mechanism are built.Dynamics equation of actuator is built by the Lagrange equation and the Nielsen equation.Under the condition of 24 different angle groups,the calculation of dynamics equation is built by using MATLAB/SIMULINK platform and the kinematic errors of actuator are obtained.The attitude error models of docking mechanism are built.Results shows that the main angle error sources of yaw,row,pitch are not identical.The attitude error of yaw angle can be decreased by compensating the angle error around xaxis.The attitude error of row angle mainly originates in the system error,and it can be eliminated by adjusting non-orthogonal degree.展开更多
Chaos theory has taught us that a system which has both nonlinearity and random input will most likely produce irregular data. If random errors are irregular data, then random error process will raise nonlinearity (K...Chaos theory has taught us that a system which has both nonlinearity and random input will most likely produce irregular data. If random errors are irregular data, then random error process will raise nonlinearity (Kantz and Schreiber (1997)). Tsai (1986) introduced a composite test for autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity in linear models with AR(1) errors. Liu (2003) introduced a composite test for correlation and heteroscedasticity in nonlinear models with DBL(p, 0, 1) errors. Therefore, the important problems in regression model axe detections of bilinearity, correlation and heteroscedasticity. In this article, the authors discuss more general case of nonlinear models with DBL(p, q, 1) random errors by score test. Several statistics for the test of bilinearity, correlation, and heteroscedasticity are obtained, and expressed in simple matrix formulas. The results of regression models with linear errors are extended to those with bilinear errors. The simulation study is carried out to investigate the powers of the test statistics. All results of this article extend and develop results of Tsai (1986), Wei, et al (1995), and Liu, et al (2003).展开更多
When a statistical test of hypothesis for a population mean is performed, we are faced with the possibility of committing a Type II error by not rejecting the null hypothesis when in fact the population mean has chang...When a statistical test of hypothesis for a population mean is performed, we are faced with the possibility of committing a Type II error by not rejecting the null hypothesis when in fact the population mean has changed. We consider this issue and quantify matters in a manner that differs a bit from what is commonly done. In particular, we define the probability distribution function for Type II errors. We then explore some interesting properties that we have not seen mentioned elsewhere for this probability distribution function. Finally, we discuss several Maple procedures that can be used to perform various calculations using the distribution.展开更多
Angular measuring system is the most important component of a servo turntable in inertial test apparatus. Its function and precision determine the turntable' s function and precision. It attaches importance to resear...Angular measuring system is the most important component of a servo turntable in inertial test apparatus. Its function and precision determine the turntable' s function and precision. It attaches importance to research on inertial test equipment. This paper introduces the principle of the angular measuring system using amplitude discrimination mode. The dynamic errors axe analyzed from the aspects of inductosyn, amplitude and function error of double-phase voltage and wavefonn distortion. Through detailed calculation, theory is provided for practical application; system errors are allocated and the angular measuring system meets the accuracy requirement. As a result, the schedule of the angular measuring system can be used in practice.展开更多
Principle component analysis (PCA) based chi-square test is more sensitive to subtle gross errors and has greater power to correctly detect gross errors than classical chi-square test. However, classical principal c...Principle component analysis (PCA) based chi-square test is more sensitive to subtle gross errors and has greater power to correctly detect gross errors than classical chi-square test. However, classical principal com- ponent test (PCT) is non-robust and can be very sensitive to one or more outliers. In this paper, a Huber function liked robust weight factor was added in the collective chi-square test to eliminate the influence of gross errors on the PCT. Meanwhile, robust chi-square test was applied to modified simultaneous estimation of gross error (MSEGE) strategy to detect and identify multiple gross errors. Simulation results show that the proposed robust test can reduce the possibility of type Ⅱ errors effectively. Adding robust chi-square test into MSEGE does not obviously improve the power of multiple gross error identification, the proposed approach considers the influence of outliers on hypothesis statistic test and is more reasonable.展开更多
Single event effects(SEEs) induced by radiations become a significant challenge to the reliability for modern electronic systems. To evaluate SEEs susceptibility for microelectronic devices and integrated circuits(ICs...Single event effects(SEEs) induced by radiations become a significant challenge to the reliability for modern electronic systems. To evaluate SEEs susceptibility for microelectronic devices and integrated circuits(ICs), an SEE testing system with flexibility and robustness was developed at Heavy Ion Research Facility in Lanzhou(HIRFL). The system is compatible with various types of microelectronic devices and ICs, and supports plenty of complex and high-speed test schemes and plans for the irradiated devices under test(DUTs). Thanks to the combination of meticulous circuit design and the hardened logic design, the system has additional performances to avoid an overheated situation and irradiations by stray radiations. The system has been tested and verified by experiments for irradiating devices at HIRFL.展开更多
The use of Statistical Hypothesis Testing procedure to determine type I and type II errors was linked to the measurement of sensitivity and specificity in clinical trial test and experimental pathogen detection techni...The use of Statistical Hypothesis Testing procedure to determine type I and type II errors was linked to the measurement of sensitivity and specificity in clinical trial test and experimental pathogen detection techniques. A theoretical analysis of establishing these types of errors was made and compared to determination of False Positive, False Negative, True Positive and True Negative. Experimental laboratory detection methods used to detect Cryptosporidium spp. were used to highlight the relationship between hypothesis testing, sensitivity, specificity and predicted values. The study finds that, sensitivity and specificity for the two laboratory methods used for Cryptosporidium detection were low hence lowering the probability of detecting a “false null hypothesis” for the presence of cryptosporidium in the water samples using either Microscopic or PCR. Nevertheless, both procedures for cryptosporidium detection had higher “true negatives” increasing its probability of failing to reject a “true null hypothesis” with specificity of 1.00 for both Microscopic and PCR laboratory detection methods.展开更多
Unlike height-diameter equations for standing trees commonly used in forest resources modelling,tree height models for cut-to-length(CTL)stems tend to produce prediction errors whose distributions are not conditionall...Unlike height-diameter equations for standing trees commonly used in forest resources modelling,tree height models for cut-to-length(CTL)stems tend to produce prediction errors whose distributions are not conditionally normal but are rather leptokurtic and heavy-tailed.This feature was merely noticed in previous studies but never thoroughly investigated.This study characterized the prediction error distribution of a newly developed such tree height model for Pin us radiata(D.Don)through the three-parameter Burr TypeⅫ(BⅫ)distribution.The model’s prediction errors(ε)exhibited heteroskedasticity conditional mainly on the small end relative diameter of the top log and also on DBH to a minor extent.Structured serial correlations were also present in the data.A total of 14 candidate weighting functions were compared to select the best two for weightingεin order to reduce its conditional heteroskedasticity.The weighted prediction errors(εw)were shifted by a constant to the positive range supported by the BXII distribution.Then the distribution of weighted and shifted prediction errors(εw+)was characterized by the BⅫdistribution using maximum likelihood estimation through 1000 times of repeated random sampling,fitting and goodness-of-fit testing,each time by randomly taking only one observation from each tree to circumvent the potential adverse impact of serial correlation in the data on parameter estimation and inferences.The nonparametric two sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov(KS)goodness-of-fit test and its closely related Kuiper’s(KU)test showed the fitted BⅫdistributions provided a good fit to the highly leptokurtic and heavy-tailed distribution ofε.Random samples generated from the fitted BⅫdistributions ofεw+derived from using the best two weighting functions,when back-shifted and unweighted,exhibited distributions that were,in about97 and 95%of the 1000 cases respectively,not statistically different from the distribution ofε.Our results for cut-tolength P.radiata stems represented the first case of any tree species where a non-normal error distribution in tree height prediction was described by an underlying probability distribution.The fitted BXII prediction error distribution will help to unlock the full potential of the new tree height model in forest resources modelling of P.radiata plantations,particularly when uncertainty assessments,statistical inferences and error propagations are needed in research and practical applications through harvester data analytics.展开更多
Aiming at the Four-Dimensional Variation source term inversion algorithm proposed earlier,the observation error regularization factor is introduced to improve the prediction accuracy of the diffusion model,and an impr...Aiming at the Four-Dimensional Variation source term inversion algorithm proposed earlier,the observation error regularization factor is introduced to improve the prediction accuracy of the diffusion model,and an improved Four-Dimensional Variation source term inversion algorithm with observation error regularization(OER-4DVAR STI model)is formed.Firstly,by constructing the inversion process and basic model of OER-4DVAR STI model,its basic principle and logical structure are studied.Secondly,the observation error regularization factor estimation method based on Bayesian optimization is proposed,and the error factor is separated and optimized by two parameters:error statistical time and deviation degree.Finally,the scientific,feasible and advanced nature of the OER-4DVAR STI model are verified by numerical simulation and tracer test data.The experimental results show that OER-4DVAR STI model can better reverse calculate the hazard source term information under the conditions of high atmospheric stability and flat underlying surface.Compared with the previous inversion algorithm,the source intensity estimation accuracy of OER-4DVAR STI model is improved by about 46.97%,and the source location estimation accuracy is improved by about 26.72%.展开更多
文摘This study aimed to examine the performance of the Siegel-Tukey and Savage tests on data sets with heterogeneous variances. The analysis, considering Normal, Platykurtic, and Skewed distributions and a standard deviation ratio of 1, was conducted for both small and large sample sizes. For small sample sizes, two main categories were established: equal and different sample sizes. Analyses were performed using Monte Carlo simulations with 20,000 repetitions for each scenario, and the simulations were evaluated using SAS software. For small sample sizes, the I. type error rate of the Siegel-Tukey test generally ranged from 0.045 to 0.055, while the I. type error rate of the Savage test was observed to range from 0.016 to 0.041. Similar trends were observed for Platykurtic and Skewed distributions. In scenarios with different sample sizes, the Savage test generally exhibited lower I. type error rates. For large sample sizes, two main categories were established: equal and different sample sizes. For large sample sizes, the I. type error rate of the Siegel-Tukey test ranged from 0.047 to 0.052, while the I. type error rate of the Savage test ranged from 0.043 to 0.051. In cases of equal sample sizes, both tests generally had lower error rates, with the Savage test providing more consistent results for large sample sizes. In conclusion, it was determined that the Savage test provides lower I. type error rates for small sample sizes and that both tests have similar error rates for large sample sizes. These findings suggest that the Savage test could be a more reliable option when analyzing variance differences.
基金Financial support for this work, provided by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.50504014), is gratefully acknowledged
文摘Self-positioning of a shearer is the key technology for mining with a man-less working face. In an underground coal mine all radio navigation; satellite positioning or celestial navigation methods have their limitations. We analyzed an inertial navi-gation system intended to guide the movement a shearer and designed a self-positioning device for the shearer. Simulation tests were also performed on the system. We analyzed the errors observed in these tests to show that the main reason for the low preci-sion of the self-positioning system is accumulated error in the inertial sensor. A Kalman filtering algorithm used in combination with the shearer motion model effectively reduces the measurement errors of the self-positioning system by compensating for gyroscopic drift. Finally, we built an error compensation model to reduce accumulated errors using continuous correction to provide self-positioning of the shearer within a certain range of accuracy.
基金Supported by National Nature Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51175461)Science Fund for Creative Research Groups of National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51221004)Program for Zhejiang Leading Team of S&T Innovation of China(Grant No.2009R50008)
文摘Compared with the traditional non-cutting measurement,machining tests can more accurately reflect the kinematic errors of five-axis machine tools in the actual machining process for the users.However,measurement and calculation of the machining tests in the literature are quite difficult and time-consuming.A new method of the machining tests for the trunnion axis of five-axis machine tool is proposed.Firstly,a simple mathematical model of the cradle-type five-axis machine tool was established by optimizing the coordinate system settings based on robot kinematics.Then,the machining tests based on error-sensitive directions were proposed to identify the kinematic errors of the trunnion axis of cradle-type five-axis machine tool.By adopting the error-sensitive vectors in the matrix calculation,the functional relationship equations between the machining errors of the test piece in the error-sensitive directions and the kinematic errors of C-axis and A-axis of five-axis machine tool rotary table was established based on the model of the kinematic errors.According to our previous work,the kinematic errors of C-axis can be treated as the known quantities,and the kinematic errors of A-axis can be obtained from the equations.This method was tested in Mikron UCP600 vertical machining center.The machining errors in the error-sensitive directions can be obtained by CMM inspection from the finished test piece to identify the kinematic errors of five-axis machine tool trunnion axis.Experimental results demonstrated that the proposed method can reduce the complexity,cost,and the time consumed substantially,and has a wider applicability.This paper proposes a new method of the machining tests for the trunnion axis of five-axis machine tool.
基金Supported by SSFC(04BTJ002),the National Natural Science Foundation of China(10371016) and the Post-Doctorial Grant in Southeast University.
文摘This paper presents an approach for estimating power of the score test, based on an asymptotic approximation to the power of the score test under contiguous alternatives. The method is applied to the problem of power calculations for the score test of heteroscedasticity in European rabbit data (Ratkowsky, 1983). Simulation studies are presented which indicate that the asymptotic approximation to the finite-sample situation is good over a wide range of parameter configurations.
文摘The large transformer is pivotal equipment in an electric power supply system; Its partial discharge test and the induced voltage withstand test on large transformers are carried out at a frequency about twice the working frequency. If the magnetizing inductance cannot compensate for the stray capacitance, the test sample turns into a capacitive load and a capacitive rise exhibits in the testing circuit. For self-restoring insulation, a method has been recommended in IEC60-1 that an unapproved measuring system be calibrated by an approved system at a voltage not less than 50% of the rated testing voltage, and the result then be extrapolated linearly. It has been found that this method leads to great error due to the capacitive rise if it is not correctly used during a withstand voltage test under certain testing conditions, especiaUy for a test on high voltage transformers with large capacity. Since the withstand voltage test is the most important means to examine the operation reliability of a transformer, and it can be destructive to the insulation, a precise measurement must be guaranteed. In this paper a factor, named as the capacitive rise factor, is introduced to assess the rise. The voltage measurement error during the calibration is determined by the parameters of the test sample and the testing facilities, as well as the measuring point. Based on theoretical analysis in this paper, a novel method is suggested and demonstrated to estimate the error by using the capacitive rise factor and other known parame- ters of the testing circuit.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51375125)the Foundation for Distinguished Young Scholars of Heilongjiang Province,China(No.JC201111)the Program for New Century Excellent Talents in University(No.NCET10-0146)
文摘To analyze the attitude errors of vertical docking test system of small satellite,the static error and kinematic error of test system are considered.The working principle of test system and coordinate of actuator are introduced.The model of friction torque on the joints and torque on docking mechanism are built.Dynamics equation of actuator is built by the Lagrange equation and the Nielsen equation.Under the condition of 24 different angle groups,the calculation of dynamics equation is built by using MATLAB/SIMULINK platform and the kinematic errors of actuator are obtained.The attitude error models of docking mechanism are built.Results shows that the main angle error sources of yaw,row,pitch are not identical.The attitude error of yaw angle can be decreased by compensating the angle error around xaxis.The attitude error of row angle mainly originates in the system error,and it can be eliminated by adjusting non-orthogonal degree.
文摘Chaos theory has taught us that a system which has both nonlinearity and random input will most likely produce irregular data. If random errors are irregular data, then random error process will raise nonlinearity (Kantz and Schreiber (1997)). Tsai (1986) introduced a composite test for autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity in linear models with AR(1) errors. Liu (2003) introduced a composite test for correlation and heteroscedasticity in nonlinear models with DBL(p, 0, 1) errors. Therefore, the important problems in regression model axe detections of bilinearity, correlation and heteroscedasticity. In this article, the authors discuss more general case of nonlinear models with DBL(p, q, 1) random errors by score test. Several statistics for the test of bilinearity, correlation, and heteroscedasticity are obtained, and expressed in simple matrix formulas. The results of regression models with linear errors are extended to those with bilinear errors. The simulation study is carried out to investigate the powers of the test statistics. All results of this article extend and develop results of Tsai (1986), Wei, et al (1995), and Liu, et al (2003).
文摘When a statistical test of hypothesis for a population mean is performed, we are faced with the possibility of committing a Type II error by not rejecting the null hypothesis when in fact the population mean has changed. We consider this issue and quantify matters in a manner that differs a bit from what is commonly done. In particular, we define the probability distribution function for Type II errors. We then explore some interesting properties that we have not seen mentioned elsewhere for this probability distribution function. Finally, we discuss several Maple procedures that can be used to perform various calculations using the distribution.
文摘Angular measuring system is the most important component of a servo turntable in inertial test apparatus. Its function and precision determine the turntable' s function and precision. It attaches importance to research on inertial test equipment. This paper introduces the principle of the angular measuring system using amplitude discrimination mode. The dynamic errors axe analyzed from the aspects of inductosyn, amplitude and function error of double-phase voltage and wavefonn distortion. Through detailed calculation, theory is provided for practical application; system errors are allocated and the angular measuring system meets the accuracy requirement. As a result, the schedule of the angular measuring system can be used in practice.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China(No 60504033)
文摘Principle component analysis (PCA) based chi-square test is more sensitive to subtle gross errors and has greater power to correctly detect gross errors than classical chi-square test. However, classical principal com- ponent test (PCT) is non-robust and can be very sensitive to one or more outliers. In this paper, a Huber function liked robust weight factor was added in the collective chi-square test to eliminate the influence of gross errors on the PCT. Meanwhile, robust chi-square test was applied to modified simultaneous estimation of gross error (MSEGE) strategy to detect and identify multiple gross errors. Simulation results show that the proposed robust test can reduce the possibility of type Ⅱ errors effectively. Adding robust chi-square test into MSEGE does not obviously improve the power of multiple gross error identification, the proposed approach considers the influence of outliers on hypothesis statistic test and is more reasonable.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.11079045,11179003 and 11305233)the Important Direction Project of the CAS Knowledge Innovation Program(No.KJCX2-YWN27)
文摘Single event effects(SEEs) induced by radiations become a significant challenge to the reliability for modern electronic systems. To evaluate SEEs susceptibility for microelectronic devices and integrated circuits(ICs), an SEE testing system with flexibility and robustness was developed at Heavy Ion Research Facility in Lanzhou(HIRFL). The system is compatible with various types of microelectronic devices and ICs, and supports plenty of complex and high-speed test schemes and plans for the irradiated devices under test(DUTs). Thanks to the combination of meticulous circuit design and the hardened logic design, the system has additional performances to avoid an overheated situation and irradiations by stray radiations. The system has been tested and verified by experiments for irradiating devices at HIRFL.
文摘The use of Statistical Hypothesis Testing procedure to determine type I and type II errors was linked to the measurement of sensitivity and specificity in clinical trial test and experimental pathogen detection techniques. A theoretical analysis of establishing these types of errors was made and compared to determination of False Positive, False Negative, True Positive and True Negative. Experimental laboratory detection methods used to detect Cryptosporidium spp. were used to highlight the relationship between hypothesis testing, sensitivity, specificity and predicted values. The study finds that, sensitivity and specificity for the two laboratory methods used for Cryptosporidium detection were low hence lowering the probability of detecting a “false null hypothesis” for the presence of cryptosporidium in the water samples using either Microscopic or PCR. Nevertheless, both procedures for cryptosporidium detection had higher “true negatives” increasing its probability of failing to reject a “true null hypothesis” with specificity of 1.00 for both Microscopic and PCR laboratory detection methods.
文摘Unlike height-diameter equations for standing trees commonly used in forest resources modelling,tree height models for cut-to-length(CTL)stems tend to produce prediction errors whose distributions are not conditionally normal but are rather leptokurtic and heavy-tailed.This feature was merely noticed in previous studies but never thoroughly investigated.This study characterized the prediction error distribution of a newly developed such tree height model for Pin us radiata(D.Don)through the three-parameter Burr TypeⅫ(BⅫ)distribution.The model’s prediction errors(ε)exhibited heteroskedasticity conditional mainly on the small end relative diameter of the top log and also on DBH to a minor extent.Structured serial correlations were also present in the data.A total of 14 candidate weighting functions were compared to select the best two for weightingεin order to reduce its conditional heteroskedasticity.The weighted prediction errors(εw)were shifted by a constant to the positive range supported by the BXII distribution.Then the distribution of weighted and shifted prediction errors(εw+)was characterized by the BⅫdistribution using maximum likelihood estimation through 1000 times of repeated random sampling,fitting and goodness-of-fit testing,each time by randomly taking only one observation from each tree to circumvent the potential adverse impact of serial correlation in the data on parameter estimation and inferences.The nonparametric two sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov(KS)goodness-of-fit test and its closely related Kuiper’s(KU)test showed the fitted BⅫdistributions provided a good fit to the highly leptokurtic and heavy-tailed distribution ofε.Random samples generated from the fitted BⅫdistributions ofεw+derived from using the best two weighting functions,when back-shifted and unweighted,exhibited distributions that were,in about97 and 95%of the 1000 cases respectively,not statistically different from the distribution ofε.Our results for cut-tolength P.radiata stems represented the first case of any tree species where a non-normal error distribution in tree height prediction was described by an underlying probability distribution.The fitted BXII prediction error distribution will help to unlock the full potential of the new tree height model in forest resources modelling of P.radiata plantations,particularly when uncertainty assessments,statistical inferences and error propagations are needed in research and practical applications through harvester data analytics.
基金Ministry of Science and Technology of the People’s Republic of China for its support and guidance(Grant No.2018YFC0214100)。
文摘Aiming at the Four-Dimensional Variation source term inversion algorithm proposed earlier,the observation error regularization factor is introduced to improve the prediction accuracy of the diffusion model,and an improved Four-Dimensional Variation source term inversion algorithm with observation error regularization(OER-4DVAR STI model)is formed.Firstly,by constructing the inversion process and basic model of OER-4DVAR STI model,its basic principle and logical structure are studied.Secondly,the observation error regularization factor estimation method based on Bayesian optimization is proposed,and the error factor is separated and optimized by two parameters:error statistical time and deviation degree.Finally,the scientific,feasible and advanced nature of the OER-4DVAR STI model are verified by numerical simulation and tracer test data.The experimental results show that OER-4DVAR STI model can better reverse calculate the hazard source term information under the conditions of high atmospheric stability and flat underlying surface.Compared with the previous inversion algorithm,the source intensity estimation accuracy of OER-4DVAR STI model is improved by about 46.97%,and the source location estimation accuracy is improved by about 26.72%.