Research on spatial calculating analysis model of landuse change

The spatial calculating analysis model is based on GIS overlay. It will compartmentalize the land in research district into three spatial types: unchanged parts, converted parts and increased parts. By this method we can evaluate the numerical model and dynamic degree model for calculating land-use change rates. Furthermore, the paper raises the possibility of revising the calculating analysis model of spatial information in order to predicate more precisely the dynamic changing level of all types of land uses. In the most concrete terms, the model is used mainly to understand changed area and changed rates (increasing or decreasing) of different land types from microcosmic angle and establish spatial distribution and spatio-temporal principles of the changing urban lands. And we will try to find out why the situation can take place by combining social and economic situations. The result indicates the calculating analysis model of spatial information can derive more accurate procedure of spatial transference and increase of all kinds of land from microcosmic angle. By this model and technology we can conduct the research of land-use spatio-temporal structure evolution more systematically and more deeply, and can obtain a satisfactory result. The result will benefit the rational planning and management of urban land use of developed coastal areas in China in the future.

Decision-Making Model for Farmer Choosing Land Use Based upon Dynamic Optimization Theory

Using the dynamic optimization theory, we described a decision-making model for farmer choosing land use when there are several different kinds of uses for land. To obtain an empirical model that could be easily applied, decision rules for farmer with a single static expectation were given.

Land use and landscape pattern change: a linkage to the construction of the Qinghai-Xizang Highway

Based on digital land use data from 1995 to 2000 and road data, the land use and landscape changes of Golmud, Qumaleb and Zhidoi are studied on a macro-scale. Land use and landscape changes in highway buffer zones and city expansion are special subjects. A new formula is used to define the exact degree of dynamic land use. To adequately define land use and landscape pattern changes, the buffer zones, illustrating the changes at different distances from the road, are recognized with ArcGIS 8.1 software. Prominent changes took place in land use and landscape patterns from 1995 to 2000, and the area of built-up land increased by 323.8%. The comprehensive degree of dynamic land use is 2.25, and the degree of dynamic land use of built-up land is the highest, followed by cultivated land. Woodland has the lowest value. The used degree index of land resources declined by 38.8 from 1995 to 2000. Landscape changed dramatically which influenced ecological processes immensely. Different from the corridor effect of other traffic routes, the corridor effect of this section of road is not obvious and its “point” radiation effect can be easily seen. The expanding range of Golmud City is confined to a 3 km buffer, while for Wudaoliang, it is 1 km. No land use change happened in the Nanshankou buffer.

Impacts of Transportation Arteries on Land Use Patterns in Urbanrural Fringe: A Comparative Gradient Analysis of Qixia District, Nanjing City, China

Integrated transportation and land use studies are of major interest to planners because they consider the interaction between transportation development and land use change. Quantifying the impact of transport infrastructure on land use change is necessary for evaluating the role of transportation development in the process of land use and land cover change in the urban-rural fringe. Taking Qixia District of Nanjing City, Jiangsu Province, China as a typical urban-rural fringe area, this paper analyzes the patterns and charac- teristics of land use change along three major transportation arteries using land use data from 2000 and 2008. We examine the spatial differentiation and gradient of land use pattern around railway, expressway, and highway corridors to investigate whether land use change in the urban-rural fringe is related to distance from transportation arteries and to clarify the varying impacts of different forms of transport infrastructure on land use patterns. We find that construction land generally tends to be located close to major transportation arteries, and that railways have the most obvious influence on land use change in the urban-rural fringe, while the impact of expressways was not significant. We conclude that there exists a causal relationship between the presence of transportation arteries and land use change in the urban-rural fringe, but this relationship varies across different types of linear transnort infrastrncnlre.

Developing land use scenario dynamics model by the integration of system dynamics model and cellular automata model

Modeling land use scenario changes and its potential impacts on the structure and function of the ecosystem in the typical regions are helpful to understanding the interactive mechanism between land use system and ecological system. A Land Use Scenario Dynamics (LUSD) model by the integration of System Dynamics (SD) model and Cellular Automata (CA) model is developed with land use scenario changes in northern China in the next 20 years simulated in this paper. The basic idea of LUSD model is to simulate the land use scenario de-mands by using SD model at first, then allocate the land use scenario patterns at the local scale with the considerations of land use suitability, inheritance ability and neighborhood effect by using CA model to satisfy the balance between land use scenario demands and supply. The application of LUSD model in northern China suggests that the model has the ability to reflect the complex behavior of land use system at different scales to some extent and is a useful tool for assessing the potential impacts of land use system on ecological system. In addition, the simulated results also indicate that obvious land use changes will take place in the farming-pastoral zone of northern China in the next 20 years with cultivated land and urban land being the most active land use types.

Analysis of the dynamics of land use change and its prediction based on the integration of remotely sensed data and CA-Markov model,in the upstream Citarum Watershed,West Java,Indonesia

In this research,the integration of remotely sensed data and Cellular Automata-Markov model(CA-Markov)have been used to analyze the dynamics of land use change and its prediction for the next year.Training phase for the CA-Markov model has been created based on the input pair of land use,which is the result of land use mapping using Maximum Likelihood(ML)algorithm.Three-map comparison has been used to evaluate process accuracy assessment of the training phase for the CA-Markov model.Furthermore,the simulation phase for the CAMarkov model can be used to predict land use map for the next year.The analyze of the dynamics of land use change and its prediction during the period 1990 to 2050 can be obtained that the land serves as a water absorbent surfaces such as primary forest,secondary forest and the mixed garden area continued to decline.Meanwhile,on build land area that can lead to reduced surface water absorbing tends to increase from year to year.The results of this research can be used as input for the next research,which aims to determine the impact of land use changes in hydrological conditions against flooding in the research area.

GIS based generation of dynamic hydrological and land patch simulation models for rural watershed areas

This paper introduces a GIS based methodology to generate dynamic process model for the simulation based analysis of a sensitive rural watershed.The Direct Computer Mapping(DCM)based solution starts from GIS layers and,via the graph interpretation and graphical edition of the process network,the expert interface is able to integrate the field experts’knowledge in the computer aided generation of the simulation model.The methodology was applied and tested for the Southern catchment basin of Lake Balaton,Hungary.In the simplified hydrological model the GIS description of nine watercourses,121 water sections,57 small lakes and 20 Lake Balaton compartments were mapped through the expert interface to the dynamic databases of the DCM model.The hydrological model involved precipitation,evaporation,transpiration,runoff,infiltration.The COoRdination of INformation on the Environment(CORINE)land cover based simplified‘‘land patch”model considered the effect of meteorological and hydrological scenarios on freshwater resources in the land patches,rivers and lakes.The first results show that the applied model generation methodology helps to build complex models,which,after validation can support the analysis of various land use,with the consideration of environmental aspects.

Simulation study on dynamic mechanism of land use and soil erosion in loess hilly regions of Shanxi and Shaanxi provinces

SOIL erosion in the hilly region of Shanxi and Shaanxi provinces is very severe, and unreason-able land use is the main reason. There have been many research reports on the prediction ofsoil erosion, and most of them use regression methods. The resulting co-relative equations areused to predict small-scale erosion of fields or farms and to select agricultural measures.

Analog simulation of urban construction land supply and demand in Chang-Zhu-Tan Urban Agglomeration based on land intensive use

Urban land intensive use is an important indicator in harmonizing the relationship between land supply and demand. The system dynamics(SD) can be used to construct the feedback loop between urban construction land supply and demand and index variable function. Based on this, this study built a supply and demand system dynamic model of urban construction land for Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration. This model can simulate the change trends of supply and demand of construction land, industrial land, and residential land in 2016–2030 by three scenarios of low, medium, and high intensity modes. The results showed that the scale of construction land of urban agglomeration is expanding, with a rapid increase rate for the urban construction land. The scale and speed of land use based on the three intensity modes existed differences. The large scale and supply of construction land in the low intensity mode caused easily the waste of land resources. In high intensity mode, the scale and supply of construction land were reduced against the healthy development of new-type urbanization. In the medium intensity mode, the scale and supply of land use adapted to the socio-economic development and at the same time reflected the concept of modern urban development. In addition, the results of this study found that the proportion of industrial land in construction land ranged from 15% to 21%, which increased year by year in the low intensity mode, and decreased slowly and stabilized in medium and high intensity modes. The proportion of residential land in construction land ranged from 27% to 35%, which decreased in the low and the medium intensity modes, and maintained a high level in the higher intensity mode. This study contributes to provide scientific reference for decision-making optimization of land supply and demand, urban planning, and land supply-side reform.

土地利用动态度双向模型及其在武汉郊县的应用

土地利用动态度是描述单一地类动态变化时采用的模型。事实上 ,土地利用数量净变化是土地利用双向变化的结果。为此 ,作者提出双向动态度模型 ,并以武汉市江夏区为例 ,探讨了结合土地利用动态度使用双向模型的优越性。

土地利用动态变化的空间分析测算模型

论文首先从土地利用变化的空间涵义出发,细分出未变化部分、转移部分和新增部分等3种空间类型,并据此对现有测算土地利用变化速率的数量分析和动态度模型进行了评析,提出了修正后的空间分析测算模型,旨在更为精细和准确地测算各土地利用类型的动态变化程度;并以北京城市边缘区的土地利用变化作为案例,对3种模型的测算结果进行了比较分析。结果表明:空间分析测算模型由于细分并同时考虑了各土地利用类型的空间转移及新增过程,能更为准确地测算出各种土地利用类型的动态变化程度与速率。

基于CA-Markov模型的土地利用演化模拟预测研究

为了探究城市发展过程中土地利用变化规律及各类驱动力的影响,以北京市顺义区为例,基于2000、2005、2010年3期遥感影像解译数据,分析研究区域的土地利用类型的动态变化程度,并基于Markov模型定量分析了土地利用的转移方向及转化程度。结合GIS分析功能,探讨多种土地利用驱动力对于土地利用类型转移的影响,并采用模糊计算的方法,将各类影像土地利用转移的因子标准化,并利用GIS中加权线性方法将其整合,结合元胞自动机马尔可夫模型,模拟出2010年的土地利用分布,经验证模拟的精度高达81.41%,Kappa指数为0.776 9,得到了较为理想的结果,证明了方法的可行性及精度的可靠性。并以2010年的土地利用格局为基础,预测2020年的土地利用状况并分析2010—2020年10 a间的土地利用变化。分析结果表明,除草地、林地变化不明显,耕地、水域面积继续保持减少的趋势,但减小的趋势渐缓,建设用地仍在不断增加,但也逐渐趋于饱和的增长趋势。此研究可为当前及未来的土地利用规划、管理和生态恢复提供科学依据。

基于马尔科夫模型的吐鲁番市土地覆被动态变化研究

以吐鲁番市1990年TM影像解译数据和2005年、2011年的土地利用图为数据源,通过建立马尔科夫模型来预测该地区土地覆被变化情况。马尔科夫模型的预测精度与模拟步长密切相关,因此,首先以1990年为基础年,基于不同的模拟步长,预测2005年的各地类面积,并与其实际面积相比较,找出最佳模拟步长。其次,用该最佳步长预测2011年以后的土地覆被变化,由此分析该地区土地利用程度和土地利用空间变化动态度。研究表明:(1)未利用地和草地相互转换数量较大;(2)2005年后耕地减少较为迅速,供需矛盾日益突出,基本没有实现耕地占补平衡;(3)在21年间水体减少近6 000hm2,很可能与全球气候变暖有关;(4)由于建设用地和园地的变化而使得土地利用程度逐年提高,说明经济的发展是土地覆被变化的重要因素;(5)人为因素是土地覆被变化的主要原因,人们正采取越来越有力的手段影响着土地覆被变化。基于上述结论,文章提出了相应建议。

近43年重庆主城区土地利用时空变化特征与预测

以重庆主城区为研究对象，1961年和1981年的土地利用现状图，1993年，2000年和2004年的TM遥感影像数据，运用GIS和RS技术、土地利用动态度和人为影响指数等数学模型分析了土地利用时空动态变化过程。研究表明：43年来，作为重庆市最重要的经济增长极，城市化进程加速的趋势已完成了以农业用地景观向城镇建设用地的转变。城镇建设用地面积显著增加，水田和旱地面积呈减少趋势，

土地利用/土地覆被变化模型方法分析

土地利用/土地覆被变化(LUCC)是研究全球变化问题中的一个热点,模型方法作为研究土地利用/土地覆被变化的重要方法之一,在区域土地利用变化规律总结上发挥了重要作用.本文对LUCC模型的发展趋势、模型构成和模型分类作了系统的介绍,并将当前广泛使用的模型从变化的程度、变化的方向和变化的空间形式分析等角度加以分析,最后指出了LUCC模型存在的问题,提出了相应的建议.

中国北方农牧交错带耕地动态变化的遥感监测

以中国北方农牧交错带典型地区（科尔沁左翼后旗）的耕地资源作为研究对象,在RS和GIS的支持下,利用遥感影像（MSS,TM）重建了科尔沁左翼后旗1975、1985、1995、2000和2005年耕地的土地利用/覆盖变化信息.研究结果表明：1975～2005年间耕地面积整体上增加但增加的幅度略有不同;1995～2000年间耕地的土地利用动态度最大,而2000～2005年间耕地的土地利用动态度相对较小;1975～2000年间耕地整体重心向西迁移,2000年后耕地的重心缓慢向东迁移;1975～2005年间耕地面积的增加主要来自对草地的开垦和沼泽的围垦,耕地面积的减少主要由于耕地撂荒转变为草地（2000年前）、退耕转变为草地（2000年以后）和耕地的沙化、盐碱化等退化的发生;人口的不断增加和宏观政策的导向是影响科尔沁左翼后旗耕地动态变化的主要原因.

水库区域土地利用时空变化分析

水库工程建设必将对区域土地利用及生态系统稳定性产生重要影响,分析水库区域土地利用时空动态变化情况,可为水库区域土地资源与生态环境保护提供技术支撑。以出山店水库区域(大坝以上至水位为92 m库区尾水上游第一条流域面积大于100 km2的支流)为例,对不同时期卫星遥感影像进行解译、叠加计算和空间分析,生成土地利用转移矩阵,构建单一类型动态度、综合类型动态度模型,定量分析水库区域土地利用时空变化特征。结果表明:2000—2018年出山店水库区域土地利用结构发生了显著变化,不同时段不同土地利用类型空间动态度差异明显,但空间格局变化并不大。水库建设将对区域经济社会发展产生带动作用,应及时调整土地利用结构,加强水库区域土地资源及生态环境保护。

土地利用和土地覆被变化模型方法综述

对土地利用 /土地覆被变化模型的发展趋势、模型构成和模型分类作了系统的介绍,并将当前广泛使用的模型从变化的程度、变化的方向和变化的空间形式分析等角度加以分析,最后指出了土地利用 /土地覆被变化模型存在的问题,提出了相应的建议.

人工绿洲林果产业用地时空变化——以新疆迪那河流域为例

【目的】探讨新疆迪那河流域轮台人工绿洲林果产业用地时空变化,评估林果产业发展状况,为小流域绿洲林果产业可持续发展提供基础数据和理论依据。【方法】在RS和GIS支持下,通过解译1992、1998、2007和2018年4期卫星遥感影像数据及野外调查获取的无人机影像数据,提取迪那河流域轮台人工绿洲林果产业用地信息,采用数理统计、动态度、转移矩阵和重心模型分析林果产业用地26年间时空变化。【结果】1)迪那河流域轮台人工绿洲林果产业用地不断增加,从1992年的2138 hm^2增至2018年的7626 hm^2;林果产业用地面积占人工绿洲总面积比例稳定中有所波动,从1992年的10%增至1998年的14%,2007年达到最大值18%,2018年又回落到12%;2)林果产业用地面积动态度与人工绿洲面积动态度差异较大:1992—1998年、1998—2007年林果产业用地面积年均增长速度(11%)高于人工绿洲面积年均增长速度(4%和5%);2007—2018年林果产业用地面积增长缓慢(1%),远小于人工绿洲(7%);3)1992—2018年,其他类型土地转入林果产业用地面积(6645 hm^2)远大于林果产业用地转出面积(1362 hm^2);林果产业扩张土地主要来源于耕地(2671 hm^2)、人工绿洲内未利用地(2345 hm^2)和人工绿洲外围土地(1421 hm^2),而转出土地主要是耕地(918 hm^2);4)26年间,林果产业用地分布重心和辐射范围变化较小。【结论】迪那河流域轮台人工绿洲林果产业发展受政策影响较大,1992—1998年增长显著,1998—2007年进入跨越式发展阶段,2007—2018年平稳增长,发展趋势与所在新疆维吾尔自治区林果产业发展趋势一致;林果产业对人工绿洲扩张的推动作用小于耕地;林果产业用地面积增加多来源于原有人工绿洲内耕地的转化和未利用土地的开垦,少量来源于人工绿洲外围戈壁区土地的转入;相比于沙漠区,戈壁区更适合林果产业发展。

武汉市土地利用和覆被变化特征分析

采用武汉市1996～2007年土地利用现状变更调查数据,结合相应的LUCC模型分析土地利用变化的特征,得出农业产业结构调整、退耕还林政策及城镇化、工业化带来的相应建设用地增加是引起该区土地利用/覆被变化特征的主要原因。