[Objective] The paper was to predict the occurrence trend of Spodoptera litura in Chenzhou area in 2010. [Method] With filed survey data for continuous years in Chenzhou and Ningyuan areas in Hunan Province as basic d...[Objective] The paper was to predict the occurrence trend of Spodoptera litura in Chenzhou area in 2010. [Method] With filed survey data for continuous years in Chenzhou and Ningyuan areas in Hunan Province as basic data, combining with local meteorological data, the occurrence law of S. litura in Chenzhou area in 2010 was predicted in the paper. [Result] With Chenzhou as an example, the occurrence quantity of S. litura during April and June in 2010 was only second to 2002 and 2003, which was higher than other years, indicating that 2010 would be the year with moderate and slightly heavier occurrence of S. litura. The occurrence quantity of S. litura during April and June was predicted by using temperature in January, and the correlation coefficient was significant, reaching the reliability degree of 90%. The occurrence quantity of S. litura during April and June was predicted by using sexually trapped moth during February and March, the correlation between them was very high, reaching the reliability degree of 98%. The sexually trapped moth of S. litura during April and June was predicted using sexually trapped moth by black cutworm （Agrotis ypsilon） during February and April, and the correlation coefficient between them reached the reliability degree of 90%. [Conclusion] The study provided reference for integrated control of S. litura.展开更多
基金Supported by Short-Flat-Fast Project of Meteorological Bureau of Hunan Province
文摘[Objective] The paper was to predict the occurrence trend of Spodoptera litura in Chenzhou area in 2010. [Method] With filed survey data for continuous years in Chenzhou and Ningyuan areas in Hunan Province as basic data, combining with local meteorological data, the occurrence law of S. litura in Chenzhou area in 2010 was predicted in the paper. [Result] With Chenzhou as an example, the occurrence quantity of S. litura during April and June in 2010 was only second to 2002 and 2003, which was higher than other years, indicating that 2010 would be the year with moderate and slightly heavier occurrence of S. litura. The occurrence quantity of S. litura during April and June was predicted by using temperature in January, and the correlation coefficient was significant, reaching the reliability degree of 90%. The occurrence quantity of S. litura during April and June was predicted by using sexually trapped moth during February and March, the correlation between them was very high, reaching the reliability degree of 98%. The sexually trapped moth of S. litura during April and June was predicted using sexually trapped moth by black cutworm （Agrotis ypsilon） during February and April, and the correlation coefficient between them reached the reliability degree of 90%. [Conclusion] The study provided reference for integrated control of S. litura.
