Predicting distant metastasis in nasopharyngeal carcinoma using gradient boosting tree model based on detailed magnetic resonance imaging reports

BACKGROUND Development of distant metastasis(DM)is a major concern during treatment of nasopharyngeal carcinoma(NPC).However,studies have demonstrated im-proved distant control and survival in patients with advanced NPC with the addition of chemotherapy to concomitant chemoradiotherapy.Therefore,precise prediction of metastasis in patients with NPC is crucial.AIM To develop a predictive model for metastasis in NPC using detailed magnetic resonance imaging(MRI)reports.METHODS This retrospective study included 792 patients with non-distant metastatic NPC.A total of 469 imaging variables were obtained from detailed MRI reports.Data were stratified and randomly split into training(50%)and testing sets.Gradient boosting tree(GBT)models were built and used to select variables for predicting DM.A full model comprising all variables and a reduced model with the top-five variables were built.Model performance was assessed by area under the curve(AUC).RESULTS Among the 792 patients,94 developed DM during follow-up.The number of metastatic cervical nodes(30.9%),tumor invasion in the posterior half of the nasal cavity(9.7%),two sides of the pharyngeal recess(6.2%),tubal torus(3.3%),and single side of the parapharyngeal space(2.7%)were the top-five contributors for predicting DM,based on their relative importance in GBT models.The testing AUC of the full model was 0.75(95%confidence interval[CI]:0.69-0.82).The testing AUC of the reduced model was 0.75(95%CI:0.68-0.82).For the whole dataset,the full(AUC=0.76,95%CI:0.72-0.82)and reduced models(AUC=0.76,95%CI:0.71-0.81)outperformed the tumor node-staging system(AUC=0.67,95%CI:0.61-0.73).CONCLUSION The GBT model outperformed the tumor node-staging system in predicting metastasis in NPC.The number of metastatic cervical nodes was identified as the principal contributing variable.

Modelling the dead fuel moisture content in a grassland of Ergun City,China

The dead fuel moisture content(DFMC)is the key driver leading to fire occurrence.Accurately estimating the DFMC could help identify locations facing fire risks,prioritise areas for fire monitoring,and facilitate timely deployment of fire-suppression resources.In this study,the DFMC and environmental variables,including air temperature,relative humidity,wind speed,solar radiation,rainfall,atmospheric pressure,soil temperature,and soil humidity,were simultaneously measured in a grassland of Ergun City,Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region of China in 2021.We chose three regression models,i.e.,random forest(RF)model,extreme gradient boosting(XGB)model,and boosted regression tree(BRT)model,to model the seasonal DFMC according to the data collected.To ensure accuracy,we added time-lag variables of 3 d to the models.The results showed that the RF model had the best fitting effect with an R2value of 0.847 and a prediction accuracy with a mean absolute error score of 4.764%among the three models.The accuracies of the models in spring and autumn were higher than those in the other two seasons.In addition,different seasons had different key influencing factors,and the degree of influence of these factors on the DFMC changed with time lags.Moreover,time-lag variables within 44 h clearly improved the fitting effect and prediction accuracy,indicating that environmental conditions within approximately 48 h greatly influence the DFMC.This study highlights the importance of considering 48 h time-lagged variables when predicting the DFMC of grassland fuels and mapping grassland fire risks based on the DFMC to help locate high-priority areas for grassland fire monitoring and prevention.

Non-cooperative Space Target Estimation Algorithm Without Prior Information Dependence Based on Temporal Line of Sight Constraint

Under single-satellite observation,the parameter estimation of the boost phase of high-precision space noncooperative targets requires prior information.To improve the accuracy without prior information,we propose a parameter estimation model of the boost phase based on trajectory plane parametric cutting.The use of the plane passing through the geo-center and the cutting sequence line of sight(LOS)generates the trajectory-cutting plane.With the coefficient of the trajectory cutting plane directly used as the parameter to be estimated,a motion parameter estimation model in space non-cooperative targets is established,and the Gauss-Newton iteration method is used to solve the flight parameters.The experimental results show that the estimation algorithm proposed in this paper weakly relies on prior information and has higher estimation accuracy,providing a practical new idea and method for the parameter estimation of space non-cooperative targets under single-satellite warning.

Fatigue Life Estimation of High Strength 2090-T83 Aluminum Alloy under Pure Torsion Loading Using Various Machine Learning Techniques

The ongoing effort to create methods for detecting and quantifying fatigue damage is motivated by the high levels of uncertainty in present fatigue-life prediction approaches and the frequently catastrophic nature of fatigue failure.The fatigue life of high strength aluminum alloy 2090-T83 is predicted in this study using a variety of artificial intelligence and machine learning techniques for constant amplitude and negative stress ratios(R?1).Artificial neural networks(ANN),adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems(ANFIS),support-vector machines(SVM),a random forest model(RF),and an extreme-gradient tree-boosting model(XGB)are trained using numerical and experimental input data obtained from fatigue tests based on a relatively low number of stress measurements.In particular,the coefficients of the traditional force law formula are found using relevant numerical methods.It is shown that,in comparison to traditional approaches,the neural network and neuro-fuzzy models produce better results,with the neural network models trained using the boosting iterations technique providing the best performances.Building strong models from weak models,XGB helps to predict fatigue life by reducing model partiality and variation in supervised learning.Fuzzy neural models can be used to predict the fatigue life of alloys more accurately than neural networks and traditional methods.

An evaluation of treatments and survival rates for pancreatic adenocarcinoma through survival analysis with inverse probability of treatment weighting:a population-based study

Objective:This study conducted inverse probability of treatment weighting(IPTW)survival analysis to examine survival in pancreatic adenocarcinoma patients.Methods:In this population-based study,data from the Surveillance,Epidemiology,and End Results program of the United States were analyzed to identify patients diagnosed with adenocarcinoma of the pancreas 2004 to 2014.Differences in survival rates were examined among patients who underwent pancreatectomy alone,radiotherapy alone,and those who had pancreatectomy plus adjuvant radiotherapy.Kaplan-Meier estimates and Cox proportional hazards models with the IPTW were performed to determine the effect of different treatments on overall and cancer-specific survival.This study was approved by the Ethics Review Board of Weifang Medical University.Results:A total of 8191 patients were included,with 3409 taking pancreatectomy only,2865 taking radiotherapy only,and 1917 taking pancreatectomy plus adjuvant radiotherapy.Patients who received surgery plus adjuvant radiotherapy had statistically a higher survival rate than those who received the other 2 treatments.Survival analysis with the IPTW for the 3 different groups showed that the difference in median overall survival time among these patient groups was significant.Conclusion:Using IPTW survival analysis,the present study shows that surgery with adjuvant radiotherapy is significantly associated with improved overall and cancer-specific survival among patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma.