There are three parts in this article. In Section 1, we establish the model of branching chain with drift in space-time random environment （BCDSTRE）, i.e., the coupling of branching chain and random walk. In Section...There are three parts in this article. In Section 1, we establish the model of branching chain with drift in space-time random environment （BCDSTRE）, i.e., the coupling of branching chain and random walk. In Section 2, we prove that any BCDSTRE must be a Markov chain in time random environment when we consider the distribution of the particles in space as a random element. In Section 3, we calculate the first-order moments and the second-order moments of BCDSTRE.展开更多
Studying the propagation of cascading failures through the transmission network is key to asses and mitigate the risk faced the energy system. As complex systems the power grid failure is often studied using some prob...Studying the propagation of cascading failures through the transmission network is key to asses and mitigate the risk faced the energy system. As complex systems the power grid failure is often studied using some probability distributions. We apply 4 well-known probabilistic models, Poisson model, Power Law model, Generalized Poisson Branching process model and Borel-Tanner Branching process model, to a 14-year utility historical outage data from a regional power grid in China, computing probabilities of cascading line outages. For this data, the empirical distribution of the total number of line outages is well approximated by the initial line outages propagating according to a Borel-Tanner branching process. Also for this data, Power law model overestimates, while Generalized Possion branching process and Possion model underestimate, the probability of larger outages. Especially, the probability distribution generated by the Poisson model deviates heavily from the observed data, underestimating the probability of large events (total no. of outages over 5) by roughly a factor of 10-2 to 10-5. The observation is confirmed by a statistical test of model fitness. The results of this work indicate that further testing of Borel-Tanner branching process models of cascading failure is appropriate, and should be further discussed as it outperforms other more traditional models.展开更多
It is well known that a supercritical single-type Bienayme-Galton-Watson process can be viewed as a decomposable branching process formed by two subtypes of particles: those having infinite line of descent and those w...It is well known that a supercritical single-type Bienayme-Galton-Watson process can be viewed as a decomposable branching process formed by two subtypes of particles: those having infinite line of descent and those who have finite number of descendants. In this paper we analyze such a decomposition for the linear-fractional Bienayme-Galton-Watson processes with countably many types. We find explicit expressions for the main characteristics of the reproduction laws for so-called skeleton and doomed particles.展开更多
It is well known that Fleming-Viot superprocesses can be obtained from the Dawson-Watanabe superprocesses by conditioning the latter to have constant total mass. The same question is investigated for measure-valued br...It is well known that Fleming-Viot superprocesses can be obtained from the Dawson-Watanabe superprocesses by conditioning the latter to have constant total mass. The same question is investigated for measure-valued branching processes with interacting intensity independent of the geographical position. It is showed that a sequence of conditioned probability laws of this kind of interacting measure-valued branching processes also approximates to the probability law of Fleming-Viot superprocesses.展开更多
基金Supported by the NSFC(10371092,11771185,10871200)
文摘There are three parts in this article. In Section 1, we establish the model of branching chain with drift in space-time random environment （BCDSTRE）, i.e., the coupling of branching chain and random walk. In Section 2, we prove that any BCDSTRE must be a Markov chain in time random environment when we consider the distribution of the particles in space as a random element. In Section 3, we calculate the first-order moments and the second-order moments of BCDSTRE.
文摘Studying the propagation of cascading failures through the transmission network is key to asses and mitigate the risk faced the energy system. As complex systems the power grid failure is often studied using some probability distributions. We apply 4 well-known probabilistic models, Poisson model, Power Law model, Generalized Poisson Branching process model and Borel-Tanner Branching process model, to a 14-year utility historical outage data from a regional power grid in China, computing probabilities of cascading line outages. For this data, the empirical distribution of the total number of line outages is well approximated by the initial line outages propagating according to a Borel-Tanner branching process. Also for this data, Power law model overestimates, while Generalized Possion branching process and Possion model underestimate, the probability of larger outages. Especially, the probability distribution generated by the Poisson model deviates heavily from the observed data, underestimating the probability of large events (total no. of outages over 5) by roughly a factor of 10-2 to 10-5. The observation is confirmed by a statistical test of model fitness. The results of this work indicate that further testing of Borel-Tanner branching process models of cascading failure is appropriate, and should be further discussed as it outperforms other more traditional models.
文摘It is well known that a supercritical single-type Bienayme-Galton-Watson process can be viewed as a decomposable branching process formed by two subtypes of particles: those having infinite line of descent and those who have finite number of descendants. In this paper we analyze such a decomposition for the linear-fractional Bienayme-Galton-Watson processes with countably many types. We find explicit expressions for the main characteristics of the reproduction laws for so-called skeleton and doomed particles.
文摘It is well known that Fleming-Viot superprocesses can be obtained from the Dawson-Watanabe superprocesses by conditioning the latter to have constant total mass. The same question is investigated for measure-valued branching processes with interacting intensity independent of the geographical position. It is showed that a sequence of conditioned probability laws of this kind of interacting measure-valued branching processes also approximates to the probability law of Fleming-Viot superprocesses.
