Anomaly-Resistant Decentralized State Estimation Under Minimum Error Entropy With Fiducial Points for Wide-Area Power Systems

This paper investigates the anomaly-resistant decentralized state estimation(SE) problem for a class of wide-area power systems which are divided into several non-overlapping areas connected through transmission lines. Two classes of measurements(i.e., local measurements and edge measurements) are obtained, respectively, from the individual area and the transmission lines. A decentralized state estimator, whose performance is resistant against measurement with anomalies, is designed based on the minimum error entropy with fiducial points(MEEF) criterion. Specifically, 1) An augmented model, which incorporates the local prediction and local measurement, is developed by resorting to the unscented transformation approach and the statistical linearization approach;2) Using the augmented model, an MEEF-based cost function is designed that reflects the local prediction errors of the state and the measurement;and 3) The local estimate is first obtained by minimizing the MEEF-based cost function through a fixed-point iteration and then updated by using the edge measuring information. Finally, simulation experiments with three scenarios are carried out on the IEEE 14-bus system to illustrate the validity of the proposed anomaly-resistant decentralized SE scheme.

The improved artificial bee colony algorithm for mixed additive and multiplicative random error model and the bootstrap method for its precision estimation

To solve the complex weight matrix derivative problem when using the weighted least squares method to estimate the parameters of the mixed additive and multiplicative random error model(MAM error model),we use an improved artificial bee colony algorithm without derivative and the bootstrap method to estimate the parameters and evaluate the accuracy of MAM error model.The improved artificial bee colony algorithm can update individuals in multiple dimensions and improve the cooperation ability between individuals by constructing a new search equation based on the idea of quasi-affine transformation.The experimental results show that based on the weighted least squares criterion,the algorithm can get the results consistent with the weighted least squares method without multiple formula derivation.The parameter estimation and accuracy evaluation method based on the bootstrap method can get better parameter estimation and more reasonable accuracy information than existing methods,which provides a new idea for the theory of parameter estimation and accuracy evaluation of the MAM error model.

Improved cat swarm optimization for parameter estimation of mixed additive and multiplicative random error model

To estimate the parameters of the mixed additive and multiplicative(MAM)random error model using the weighted least squares iterative algorithm that requires derivation of the complex weight array,we introduce a derivative-free cat swarm optimization for parameter estimation.We embed the Powell method,which uses conjugate direction acceleration and does not need to derive the objective function,into the original cat swarm optimization to accelerate its convergence speed and search accuracy.We use the ordinary least squares,weighted least squares,original cat swarm optimization,particle swarm algorithm and improved cat swarm optimization to estimate the parameters of the straight-line fitting MAM model with lower nonlinearity and the DEM MAM model with higher nonlinearity,respectively.The experimental results show that the improved cat swarm optimization has faster convergence speed,higher search accuracy,and better stability than the original cat swarm optimization and the particle swarm algorithm.At the same time,the improved cat swarm optimization can obtain results consistent with the weighted least squares method based on the objective function only while avoiding multiple complex weight array derivations.The method in this paper provides a new idea for theoretical research on parameter estimation of MAM error models.

Feedback control and quantum error correction assisted quantum multi-parameter estimation

Quantum metrology provides a fundamental limit on the precision of multi-parameter estimation,called the Heisenberg limit,which has been achieved in noiseless quantum systems.However,for systems subject to noises,it is hard to achieve this limit since noises are inclined to destroy quantum coherence and entanglement.In this paper,a combined control scheme with feedback and quantum error correction(QEC)is proposed to achieve the Heisenberg limit in the presence of spontaneous emission,where the feedback control is used to protect a stabilizer code space containing an optimal probe state and an additional control is applied to eliminate the measurement incompatibility among three parameters.Although an ancilla system is necessary for the preparation of the optimal probe state,our scheme does not require the ancilla system to be noiseless.In addition,the control scheme in this paper has a low-dimensional code space.For the three components of a magnetic field,it can achieve the highest estimation precision with only a 2-dimensional code space,while at least a4-dimensional code space is required in the common optimal error correction protocols.

Robust state of charge estimation of lithium-ion battery via mixture kernel mean p-power error loss LSTM with heap-based-optimizer

The state of charge(SOC)estimation of lithium-ion battery is an important function in the battery management system(BMS)of electric vehicles.The long short term memory(LSTM)model can be employed for SOC estimation,which is capable of estimating the future changing states of a nonlinear system.Since the BMS usually works under complicated operating conditions,i.e the real measurement data used for model training may be corrupted by non-Gaussian noise,and thus the performance of the original LSTM with the mean square error(MSE)loss may deteriorate.Therefore,a novel LSTM with mixture kernel mean p-power error(MKMPE)loss,called MKMPE-LSTM,is developed by using the MKMPE loss to replace the MSE as the learning criterion in LSTM framework,which can achieve robust SOC estimation under the measurement data contaminated with non-Gaussian noises(or outliers)because of the MKMPE containing the p-order moments of the error distribution.In addition,a meta-heuristic algorithm,called heap-based-optimizer(HBO),is employed to optimize the hyper-parameters(mainly including learning rate,number of hidden layer neuron and value of p in MKMPE)of the proposed MKMPE-LSTM model to further improve its flexibility and generalization performance,and a novel hybrid model(HBO-MKMPE-LSTM)is established for SOC estimation under non-Gaussian noise cases.Finally,several tests are performed under various cases through a benchmark to evaluate the performance of the proposed HBO-MKMPE-LSTM model,and the results demonstrate that the proposed hybrid method can provide a good robustness and accuracy under different non-Gaussian measurement noises,and the SOC estimation results in terms of mean square error(MSE),root MSE(RMSE),mean absolute relative error(MARE),and determination coefficient R2are less than 0.05%,3%,3%,and above 99.8%at 25℃,respectively.

Efficient error estimation in quantum key distribution

In a quantum key distribution（QKD） system, the error rate needs to be estimated for determining the joint probability distribution between legitimate parties, and for improving the performance of key reconciliation. We propose an efficient error estimation scheme for QKD, which is called parity comparison method（PCM）. In the proposed method, the parity of a group of sifted keys is practically analysed to estimate the quantum bit error rate instead of using the traditional key sampling. From the simulation results, the proposed method evidently improves the accuracy and decreases revealed information in most realistic application situations.

Estimation for nearly unit root processes with GARCH errors

In this paper the limiting distribution of the least square estimate for the autoregressive coefficient of a nearly unit root model with GARCH errors is derived. Since the limiting distribution depends on the unknown variance of the errors, an empirical likelihood ratio statistic is proposed from which confidence intervals can be constructed for the nearly unit root model without knowing the variance. To gain an intuitive sense for the empirical likelihood ratio, a small simulation for the asymptotic distribution is given.

An Online Model Correction Method Based on an Inverse Problem:Part I—Model Error Estimation by Iteration

Errors inevitably exist in numerical weather prediction （NWP） due to imperfect numeric and physical parameterizations. To eliminate these errors, by considering NWP as an inverse problem, an unknown term in the prediction equations can be estimated inversely by using the past data, which are presumed to represent the imperfection of the NWP model （model error, denoted as ME）. In this first paper of a two-part series, an iteration method for obtaining the MEs in past intervals is presented, and the results from testing its convergence in idealized experiments are reported. Moreover, two batches of iteration tests were applied in the global forecast system of the Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction System （GRAPES-GFS） for July-August 2009 and January-February 2010. The datasets associated with the initial conditions and sea surface temperature （SST） were both based on NCEP （National Centers for Environmental Prediction） FNL （final） data. The results showed that 6th h forecast errors were reduced to 10% of their original value after a 20-step iteration. Then, off-line forecast error corrections were estimated linearly based on the 2-month mean MEs and compared with forecast errors. The estimated error corrections agreed well with the forecast errors, but the linear growth rate of the estimation was steeper than the forecast error. The advantage of this iteration method is that the MEs can provide the foundation for online correction. A larger proportion of the forecast errors can be expected to be canceled out by properly introducing the model error correction into GRAPES-GFS.

Enriched goal-oriented error estimation for fracture problems solved by continuum-based shell extended finite element method

An enriched goal-oriented error estimation method with extended degrees of freedom is developed to estimate the error in the continuum-based shell extended finite element method. It leads to high quality local error bounds in three-dimensional fracture mechanics simulation which involves enrichments to solve the singularity in crack tip. This enriched goal-oriented error estimation gives a chance to evaluate this continuum- based shell extended finite element method simulation. With comparisons of reliability to the stress intensity factor calculation in stretching and bending, the accuracy of the continuum-based shell extended finite element method simulation is evaluated, and the reason of error is discussed.

Recursive weighted least squares estimation algorithm based on minimum model error principle

Kalman filter is commonly used in data filtering and parameters estimation of nonlinear system,such as projectile's trajectory estimation and control.While there is a drawback that the prior error covariance matrix and filter parameters are difficult to be determined,which may result in filtering divergence.As to the problem that the accuracy of state estimation for nonlinear ballistic model strongly depends on its mathematical model,we improve the weighted least squares method(WLSM)with minimum model error principle.Invariant embedding method is adopted to solve the cost function including the model error.With the knowledge of measurement data and measurement error covariance matrix,we use gradient descent algorithm to determine the weighting matrix of model error.The uncertainty and linearization error of model are recursively estimated by the proposed method,thus achieving an online filtering estimation of the observations.Simulation results indicate that the proposed recursive estimation algorithm is insensitive to initial conditions and of good robustness.

Application of an Error Statistics Estimation Method to the PSAS Forecast Error Covariance Model

In atmospheric data assimilation systems, the forecast error covariance model is an important component. However, the paralneters required by a forecast error covariance model are difficult to obtain due to the absence of the truth. This study applies an error statistics estimation method to the Pfiysical-space Statistical Analysis System （PSAS） height-wind forecast error covariance model. This method consists of two components： the first component computes the error statistics by using the National Meteorological Center （NMC） method, which is a lagged-forecast difference approach, within the framework of the PSAS height-wind forecast error covariance model; the second obtains a calibration formula to rescale the error standard deviations provided by the NMC method. The calibration is against the error statistics estimated by using a maximum-likelihood estimation （MLE） with rawindsonde height observed-minus-forecast residuals. A complete set of formulas for estimating the error statistics and for the calibration is applied to a one-month-long dataset generated by a general circulation model of the Global Model and Assimilation Office （GMAO）, NASA. There is a clear constant relationship between the error statistics estimates of the NMC-method and MLE. The final product provides a full set of 6-hour error statistics required by the PSAS height-wind forecast error covariance model over the globe. The features of these error statistics are examined and discussed.

Ridge estimation iterative solution of ill-posed mixed additive and multiplicative random error model with equality constraints

The reasonable prior information between the parameters in the adjustment processing can significantly improve the precision of the parameter solution. Based on the principle of equality constraints, we establish the mixed additive and multiplicative random error model with equality constraints and derive the weighted least squares iterative solution of the model. In addition, aiming at the ill-posed problem of the coefficient matrix, we also propose the ridge estimation iterative solution of ill-posed mixed additive and multiplicative random error model with equality constraints based on the principle of ridge estimation method and derive the U-curve method to determine the ridge parameter. The experimental results show that the weighted least squares iterative solution can obtain more reasonable parameter estimation and precision information than existing solutions, verifying the feasibility of applying the equality constraints to the mixed additive and multiplicative random error model. Furthermore, the ridge estimation iterative solution can obtain more accurate parameter estimation and precision information than the weighted least squares iterative solution.

Wavelet Density Estimation of Censoring Data and Evaluate of Mean Integral Square Error with Convergence Ratio and Empirical Distribution of Given Estimator

Wavelet has rapid development in the current mathematics new areas. It also has a double meaning of theory and application. In signal and image compression, signal analysis, engineering technology has a wide range of applications. In this paper, we use wavelet method, for estimating the density function for censoring data. We evaluate the mean integrated squared error, convergence ratio of given estimator. Also, we obtain empirical distribution of given estimator and verify the conclusion by two simulation examples.

Estimation under a Finite Mixture of Exponentiated Exponential Components Model and Balanced Square Error Loss

By exponentiating each of the components of a finite mixture of two exponential components model by a positive parameter, several shapes of hazard rate functions are obtained. Maximum likelihood and Bayes methods, based on square error loss function and objective prior, are used to obtain estimators based on balanced square error loss function for the parameters, survival and hazard rate functions of a mixture of two exponentiated exponential components model. Approximate interval estimators of the parameters of the model are obtained.

A Posteriori Error Estimate of Two Grid Mixed Finite Element Methods for Semilinear Elliptic Equations

In this paper, we present the a posteriori error estimate of two-grid mixed finite element methods by averaging techniques for semilinear elliptic equations. We first propose the two-grid algorithms to linearize the mixed method equations. Then, the averaging technique is used to construct the a posteriori error estimates of the two-grid mixed finite element method and theoretical analysis are given for the error estimators. Finally, we give some numerical examples to verify the reliability and efficiency of the a posteriori error estimator.

Array-error estimation method for multi-channel SAR systems in azimuth

For multi-channel synthetic aperture radar（SAR） systems, since the minimum antenna area constraint is eliminated,wide swath and high resolution SAR image can be achieved.However, the unavoidable array errors, consisting of channel gainphase mismatch and position uncertainty, significantly degrade the performance of such systems. An iteration-free method is proposed to simultaneously estimate position and gain-phase errors.In our research, the steering vectors corresponding to a pair of Doppler bins within the same range bin are studied in terms of their rotational relationships. The method is based on the fact that the rotational matrix only depends on the position errors and the frequency spacing between the paired Doppler bins but is independent of gain-phase error. Upon combining the projection matrices corresponding to the paired Doppler bins, the position errors are directly obtained in terms of extracting the rotational matrix in a least squares framework. The proposed method, when used in conjunction with the self-calibration algorithm, performs stably as well as has less computational load, compared with the conventional methods. Simulations reveal that the proposed method behaves better than the conventional methods even when the signal-to-noise ratio（SNR） is low.

Channel Error Estimation Methods Comparison under Different Conditions for Multichannel HRWS SAR Systems

Multichannel synthetic aperture radar (SAR) in azimuth can resolve the contradiction between high resolution and wide swath faced with traditional SAR imaging. However, channel errors will degrade the performance of imaging. This paper compares the performances of four channel error estimation algorithms under different clutter distributions and SNR conditions. Further, explanations are given for performance differences of the four algorithms, which provide evidence for method selection in engineering applications.

Bayesian Filtering for High-Dimensional State-Space Models With State Partition and Error Compensation

In the era of exponential growth of data availability,the architecture of systems has a trend toward high dimensionality,and directly exploiting holistic information for state inference is not always computationally affordable.This paper proposes a novel Bayesian filtering algorithm that considers algorithmic computational cost and estimation accuracy for high-dimensional linear systems.The high-dimensional state vector is divided into several blocks to save computation resources by avoiding the calculation of error covariance with immense dimensions.After that,two sequential states are estimated simultaneously by introducing an auxiliary variable in the new probability space,mitigating the performance degradation caused by state segmentation.Moreover,the computational cost and error covariance of the proposed algorithm are analyzed analytically to show its distinct features compared with several existing methods.Simulation results illustrate that the proposed Bayesian filtering can maintain a higher estimation accuracy with reasonable computational cost when applied to high-dimensional linear systems.

Low Complexity Minimum Mean Square Error Channel Estimation for Adaptive Coding and Modulation Systems

Performance of the Adaptive Coding and Modulation(ACM) strongly depends on the retrieved Channel State Information(CSI),which can be obtained using the channel estimation techniques relying on pilot symbol transmission.Earlier analysis of methods of pilot-aided channel estimation for ACM systems were relatively little.In this paper,we investigate the performance of CSI prediction using the Minimum Mean Square Error(MMSE)channel estimator for an ACM system.To solve the two problems of MMSE:high computational operations and oversimplified assumption,we then propose the Low-Complexity schemes(LC-MMSE and Recursion LC-MMSE(R-LC-MMSE)).Computational complexity and Mean Square Error(MSE) are presented to evaluate the efficiency of the proposed algorithm.Both analysis and numerical results show that LC-MMSE performs close to the wellknown MMSE estimator with much lower complexity and R-LC-MMSE improves the application of MMSE estimation to specific circumstances.

ERROR ESTIMATION OF SPECTRAL-DIFFERENCE METHOD FOR COMPRESSIBLE FLUID FLOW IN THREE-DIMENSIONAL SPACE

This paper is devoted to a combined Fourier spectral-finite difference method for solving 3-dimensional, semi-periodic compressible fluid flow problem. The error estimation, as well as the convergence rate, is presented.