The effect of COVID-19 on stock market performance has important implications for both financial theory and practice.This paper examines the relationship between COVID-19 and the instability of both stock return predi...The effect of COVID-19 on stock market performance has important implications for both financial theory and practice.This paper examines the relationship between COVID-19 and the instability of both stock return predictability and price volatility in the U.S over the period January 1st,2019 to June 30th,2020 by using the methodologies of Bai and Perron(Econometrica 66:47–78,1998.https://doi.org/10.2307/2998540;J Appl Econo 18:1–22,2003.https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.659),Elliot and Muller(Optimal testing general breaking processes in linear time series models.University of California at San Diego Economic Working Paper,2004),and Xu(J Econ 173:126–142,2013.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jecon om.2012.11.001).The results highlight a single break in return predictability and price volatility of both S&P 500 and DJIA.The timing of the break is consistent with the COVID-19 outbreak,or more specifically the stock sellingoffs by the U.S.senate committee members before COVID-19 crashed the market.Furthermore,return predictability and price volatility significantly increased following the derived break.The findings suggest that the pandemic crisis was associated with market inefficiency,creating profitable opportunities for traders and speculators.Furthermore,it also induced income and wealth inequality between market participants with plenty of liquidity at hand and those short of funds.展开更多
With the rapid expansion of the RMB exchange rate’s floating range,the effects of the RMB exchange rate and global commodity price changes on China’s stock prices are likely to increase.This study uses both auto reg...With the rapid expansion of the RMB exchange rate’s floating range,the effects of the RMB exchange rate and global commodity price changes on China’s stock prices are likely to increase.This study uses both auto regressive distributed lag(ARDL)and nonlinear ARDL(NARDL)approaches to explore the symmetric and asymmetric effects of the RMB exchange rate and global commodity prices on China’s stock prices.Our findings show that without considering the critical variable of global commodity prices,there is no cointegration relationship between the RMB exchange rate and China’s stock prices,and the coefficient of the RMB exchange rate is not statistically significant.However,when we introduce global commodity prices into the NARDL model,the result shows that the RMB exchange rate has a negative effect on China’s stock prices,that there indeed exists a long-run cointegration relationship among the RMB exchange rate,global commodity prices,and stock prices in the NARDL model,and that global commodity price changes have an asymmetric effect on China’s stock prices in the long run.Specifically,China’s stock prices are more sensitive to increases than decreases in global commodity prices.Thus,increases in global commodity prices cause China’s stock prices to decline sharply.In contrast,the same magnitude of decline in global commodity prices induces a smaller increase in China’s stock prices.展开更多
The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of dividend distributions and earnings per share by moderating bank size as measured by its total assets on the stock market value of banks operating in Jordan durin...The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of dividend distributions and earnings per share by moderating bank size as measured by its total assets on the stock market value of banks operating in Jordan during the period between 2011 and 2016.The hypotheses of the study were tested based on multiple and hierarchical regression method.The most important result of the study is that the earnings per share is the strongest variable that helps in predicting the stock market value of the bank shares,in addition to the significant effect of bank size as measured by its total assets.展开更多
The People’s Bank of China promulgated andput in force days ago Regulation on Foreign Ex-change Accounts in China, according to which for-eign individuals or legal persons can open foreignexchange accounts to keep fo...The People’s Bank of China promulgated andput in force days ago Regulation on Foreign Ex-change Accounts in China, according to which for-eign individuals or legal persons can open foreignexchange accounts to keep foreign exchange fortrading B stock in China.As stipulated by the regulation, as to foreigncurrency stock accounts opened bydomestic insti-tutions with the income from issuing stocks, theirreceipt shall be income from issuing stocks anddisbursement shall be used for the purposes pro-vided for in the prospectus approved by securitiessupervising organs; as to foreign exchange ac-counts opened by foreign individuals or legal per-sons for trading B stocks in China.their receipt shallbe the income of trading stocks and foreign ex-change remitted or brought in from abroad, andtheir disbursement shall be used for buying andselling stocks.As provided in the regulation, for the purposeof opening B stock account to trade B stocks展开更多
Foreign companies set to list on Shanghai stock board SETTING up an international stock board similar to those in New York and London is the key component of the State Council’s strategy to establish Shanghai as a ne...Foreign companies set to list on Shanghai stock board SETTING up an international stock board similar to those in New York and London is the key component of the State Council’s strategy to establish Shanghai as a new global financial center.Although it is two years since this intention was made, any specific timetable for its completion of this strategy has not yet been released. But anticipation is high and at the Lujiazui展开更多
The stock market in the form of the S&P 500 is estimated to be inefficient in 13%to 30%of the time since 1963.This is contrary to the theory of efficient capital markets,but in accordance with Samuelson’s Dictum,...The stock market in the form of the S&P 500 is estimated to be inefficient in 13%to 30%of the time since 1963.This is contrary to the theory of efficient capital markets,but in accordance with Samuelson’s Dictum,which posits that the stock market is micro efficient,but macro inefficient.I develop a new model to measure potential inefficiency at macro level.Inefficiency in price(P)is driven by earnings(EPS)and/or valuation(P/E).At the peak of the TMT-bubble in 1999/2000,both factors were in play,while only earnings assumptions were inefficient before the Great Financial Crisis in 2008/09.The model developed show expected results in terms of relative efficiency for Developed vs.Emerging Markets and for Dow Jones vs.Nasdaq.Parts of academia seems to accept a different definition of market efficiency at micro level compared to macro level.At macro level,a standard“price vs.fair value”definition seems to be generally accepted,while at micro level,a relative“price vs.price”definition seems to be broadly used.The latter way of thinking has historically contributed to price bubbles.Numerous examples of stock prices that deviate significantly from their fair value in days,weeks and months and doubtful methods for measuring efficiency at micro level cast doubt about the micro efficiency claim part of Samuelson’s Dictum.展开更多
基金This research was supported by the Social Science Foundation of Jiangxi Province(Grant No:20YJ09)the National Social Science Foundation of China(Grant No:17ZDA037).
文摘The effect of COVID-19 on stock market performance has important implications for both financial theory and practice.This paper examines the relationship between COVID-19 and the instability of both stock return predictability and price volatility in the U.S over the period January 1st,2019 to June 30th,2020 by using the methodologies of Bai and Perron(Econometrica 66:47–78,1998.https://doi.org/10.2307/2998540;J Appl Econo 18:1–22,2003.https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.659),Elliot and Muller(Optimal testing general breaking processes in linear time series models.University of California at San Diego Economic Working Paper,2004),and Xu(J Econ 173:126–142,2013.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jecon om.2012.11.001).The results highlight a single break in return predictability and price volatility of both S&P 500 and DJIA.The timing of the break is consistent with the COVID-19 outbreak,or more specifically the stock sellingoffs by the U.S.senate committee members before COVID-19 crashed the market.Furthermore,return predictability and price volatility significantly increased following the derived break.The findings suggest that the pandemic crisis was associated with market inefficiency,creating profitable opportunities for traders and speculators.Furthermore,it also induced income and wealth inequality between market participants with plenty of liquidity at hand and those short of funds.
基金supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(2019CDSKXYGG0042,2018CDXYGG0054,2020CDJSK01HQ01)National Social Science Funds(16CJL007).
文摘With the rapid expansion of the RMB exchange rate’s floating range,the effects of the RMB exchange rate and global commodity price changes on China’s stock prices are likely to increase.This study uses both auto regressive distributed lag(ARDL)and nonlinear ARDL(NARDL)approaches to explore the symmetric and asymmetric effects of the RMB exchange rate and global commodity prices on China’s stock prices.Our findings show that without considering the critical variable of global commodity prices,there is no cointegration relationship between the RMB exchange rate and China’s stock prices,and the coefficient of the RMB exchange rate is not statistically significant.However,when we introduce global commodity prices into the NARDL model,the result shows that the RMB exchange rate has a negative effect on China’s stock prices,that there indeed exists a long-run cointegration relationship among the RMB exchange rate,global commodity prices,and stock prices in the NARDL model,and that global commodity price changes have an asymmetric effect on China’s stock prices in the long run.Specifically,China’s stock prices are more sensitive to increases than decreases in global commodity prices.Thus,increases in global commodity prices cause China’s stock prices to decline sharply.In contrast,the same magnitude of decline in global commodity prices induces a smaller increase in China’s stock prices.
文摘The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of dividend distributions and earnings per share by moderating bank size as measured by its total assets on the stock market value of banks operating in Jordan during the period between 2011 and 2016.The hypotheses of the study were tested based on multiple and hierarchical regression method.The most important result of the study is that the earnings per share is the strongest variable that helps in predicting the stock market value of the bank shares,in addition to the significant effect of bank size as measured by its total assets.
文摘The People’s Bank of China promulgated andput in force days ago Regulation on Foreign Ex-change Accounts in China, according to which for-eign individuals or legal persons can open foreignexchange accounts to keep foreign exchange fortrading B stock in China.As stipulated by the regulation, as to foreigncurrency stock accounts opened bydomestic insti-tutions with the income from issuing stocks, theirreceipt shall be income from issuing stocks anddisbursement shall be used for the purposes pro-vided for in the prospectus approved by securitiessupervising organs; as to foreign exchange ac-counts opened by foreign individuals or legal per-sons for trading B stocks in China.their receipt shallbe the income of trading stocks and foreign ex-change remitted or brought in from abroad, andtheir disbursement shall be used for buying andselling stocks.As provided in the regulation, for the purposeof opening B stock account to trade B stocks
文摘Foreign companies set to list on Shanghai stock board SETTING up an international stock board similar to those in New York and London is the key component of the State Council’s strategy to establish Shanghai as a new global financial center.Although it is two years since this intention was made, any specific timetable for its completion of this strategy has not yet been released. But anticipation is high and at the Lujiazui
文摘The stock market in the form of the S&P 500 is estimated to be inefficient in 13%to 30%of the time since 1963.This is contrary to the theory of efficient capital markets,but in accordance with Samuelson’s Dictum,which posits that the stock market is micro efficient,but macro inefficient.I develop a new model to measure potential inefficiency at macro level.Inefficiency in price(P)is driven by earnings(EPS)and/or valuation(P/E).At the peak of the TMT-bubble in 1999/2000,both factors were in play,while only earnings assumptions were inefficient before the Great Financial Crisis in 2008/09.The model developed show expected results in terms of relative efficiency for Developed vs.Emerging Markets and for Dow Jones vs.Nasdaq.Parts of academia seems to accept a different definition of market efficiency at micro level compared to macro level.At macro level,a standard“price vs.fair value”definition seems to be generally accepted,while at micro level,a relative“price vs.price”definition seems to be broadly used.The latter way of thinking has historically contributed to price bubbles.Numerous examples of stock prices that deviate significantly from their fair value in days,weeks and months and doubtful methods for measuring efficiency at micro level cast doubt about the micro efficiency claim part of Samuelson’s Dictum.
