Extreme value theory applied to the auroral electrojet indices

The study of extreme weather and space events has gained paramount importance in modern society owing to rapid advances in high technology.Understanding and describing exceptional occurrences plays a crucial role in making decisive assessments of their potential impact on technical,economic,and social aspects in various fields.This research focuses on analyzing the hourly values of the auroral electrojet(AE)geomagnetic index from 1957 to 2019 by using the peak over threshold method in extreme value theory.By fitting the generalized Pareto distribution to extreme AE values,shape parameter indices were derived,revealing negative values that establish an upper bound for this time series.Consequently,it became evident that the AE values had reached a plateau,suggesting that extreme events exceeding the established upper limit are rare.As a result,although the need for diligent precautions to mitigate the consequences of such extreme events persists,surpassing the upper limit of AE values becomes increasingly challenging.It is also possible to observe an aurora in the middle-and low-latitude regions during the maximum period of the AE index.

How Sense of Ritual in Tourism Impacts Tourists’Co-Creation of Tourism Experience Values:A Study Based on the Theory of Value Co-Creation

Establishing a sense of ritual within tourism consumption scenarios offers tourists the opportunity for interactive engagement.Drawing upon the value co-creation theory,this study constructed an influence mechanism model to examine tourists'active engagement in the process of co-creating tourism experience values.It employed Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling(PLS-SEM)to empirically test the proposed hypotheses.The findings demonstrate that the model constructed in the present study exhibits robust reliability,validity,and explanatory power.The perception of the sense of ritual in tourism exerts a significant positive influence on tourists’co-creation of tourism experience values,thereby significantly enhancing both the communitas and flow experienced by tourists during their travels.Moreover,such communitas and flow can mediate the influence of the sense of ritual in tourism on tourists’co-creation of tourism experience values.This study contributes to advancing the current research on tourists’co-creation of tourism experience values and the sense of ritual in tourism,thereby providing theoretical foundations for cultivating a sense of ritual within tourism consumption scenarios.

Research on Data Theory of Value

This paper explores the data theory of value along the line of reasoning epochal characteristics of data-theoretical innovation-paradigmatic transformation and,through a comparison of hard and soft factors and observation of data peculiar features,it draws the conclusion that data have the epochal characteristics of non-competitiveness and non-exclusivity,decreasing marginal cost and increasing marginal return,non-physical and intangible form,and non-finiteness and non-scarcity.It is the epochal characteristics of data that undermine the traditional theory of value and innovate the“production-exchange”theory,including data value generation,data value realization,data value rights determination and data value pricing.From the perspective of data value generation,the levels of data quality,processing,use and connectivity,data application scenarios and data openness will influence data value.From the perspective of data value realization,data,as independent factors of production,show value creation effect,create a value multiplier effect by empowering other factors of production,and substitute other factors of production to create a zero-price effect.From the perspective of data value rights determination,based on the theory of property,the tragedy of the private outweighs the comedy of the private with respect to data,and based on the theory of sharing economy,the comedy of the commons outweighs the tragedy of the commons with respect to data.From the perspective of data pricing,standardized data products can be priced according to the physical product attributes,and non-standardized data products can be priced according to the virtual product attributes.Based on the epochal characteristics of data and theoretical innovation,the“production-exchange”paradigm has undergone a transformation from“using tangible factors to produce tangible products and exchanging tangible products for tangible products”to“using intangible factors to produce tangible products and exchanging intangible products for tangible products”and ultimately to“using intangible factors to produce intangible products and exchanging intangible products for intangible products”.

Estimation of Return Level for Maximum Daily and Hourly Precipitation in Nagano Prefecture, Japan, Using the Extreme Value Theory

The weather in Nagano Prefecture, Japan, can be roughly classified into four types according to principal component analysis and k-means clustering. We predicted the extreme values of the maximum daily and hourly precipitation in Nagano Prefecture using the extreme value theory. For the maximum daily precipitation, the vales of ξ in Matsumoto, Karuizawa, Sugadaira, and Saku were positive;therefore, it has no upper bound and tends to take large values. Therefore, it is dangerous and caution is required. The values of ξ in Nagano, Kisofukushima, and Minamishinano were determined to be zero, therefore, there was no upper limit, the probability of obtaining a large value was low, and caution was required. We predicted the maximum return levels for return periods of 10, 20, 50, and 100 years along with respective 95% confidence intervals in Nagano, Matsumoto, Karuizawa, Sugadaira, Saku, Kisofukushima, and Minamishinano. In Matsumoto, the 100-year return level was 182 mm, with a 95% CI [129, 236]. In Minamishinano, the 100-year return level was 285 mm, with a 95% CI [173, 398]. The 100-year return levels for the maximum daily rainfall were 285, 271, and 271 mm in Minamishinano, Saku, and Karuizawa, respectively, where the changes in the daily maximum rainfall were larger than those at other points. Because these values are large, caution is required during heavy rainfall. The 100-year return levels for the maximum daily and hourly precipitation were similar in Karuizawa and Saku. In Sugadaira, the 100-year return level for a maximum hourly rainfall of 107.2 mm was larger than the maximum daily rainfall. Hence, it is necessary to be careful about short-term rainfall events.

Dynamical distribution of continuous service time model involving non-Maxwellian collision kernel and value functions

The distribution of continuous service time in call centers is investigated.A non-Maxwellian collision kernel combining two different value functions in the interaction rule are used to describe the evolution of continuous service time,respectively.Using the statistical mechanical and asymptotic limit methods,Fokker–Planck equations are derived from the corresponding Boltzmann-type equations with non-Maxwellian collision kernels.The steady-state solutions of the Fokker–Planck equation are obtained in exact form.Numerical experiments are provided to support our results under different parameters.

A Value for Games Defined on Graphs

Given a graph g=( V,A ) , we define a space of subgraphs M with the binary operation of union and the unique decomposition property into blocks. This space allows us to discuss a notion of minimal subgraphs (minimal coalitions) that are of interest for the game. Additionally, a partition of the game is defined in terms of the gain of each block, and subsequently, a solution to the game is defined based on distributing to each player (node and edge) present in each block a payment proportional to their contribution to the coalition.

Analyzing of the ENSO Index Using Extreme Value Theory

We predicted the extreme values of the ENSO index, the Niño3.4 index, and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) using extreme value theory. Various diagnostic plots for assessing the accuracy of the Generalized Pareto (GP) model fitted to the Niño3.4 index and SOI are shown, and all four diagnostic plots support the fitted GP model. Because the shape parameter of the Niño3.4 was negative, the Niño3.4 index had a finite upper limit. In contrast, that of the SOI was zero, therefore the SOI did not have a finite upper limit, and there is a possibility that a significant risk will occur. We predicted the maximum return level for the return periods of 10, 20, 50, 100, 350, and 500 years and their respective 95% confidence intervals, CI. The 10-year, and 100-year return levels for Niño3.4 were estimated to be 2.41, and 2.62, with 95% CI [2.22, 2.59], and [2.58, 2.66], respectively. The Niño3.4 index was 2.65 in the 2015/16 super El Niño, which is a phenomenon that occurs once every 500 years. The Niño3.4 index was 2.51 in the 1982/83, and 1997/98 super El Niño, which is a phenomenon that occurs once every 20 years. Recently, a large super El Niño event with a small probability of occurrence has occurred. In response to global warming, the super El Niño events are becoming more likely to occur.

Analysis of the USD/JPY and EUR/JPY Exchange Rates Using Multifractal Analysis and Extreme Value Theory

We performed a multifractal analysis using wavelet transform to detect the changes in the fractality of the USD/JPY and EUR/JPY exchange rates, and predicted their extreme values using extreme value theory. After the 1997 Asian financial crisis, the USD/JPY and EUR/JPY became multifractal, then the USD/JPY became monofractal and stable, and yen depreciation was observed. However, the EUR/JPY became multifractal and unstable, and a strong yen depreciation was observed. The coherence between the USD/JPY and EUR/JPY was strong between 1995 and 2000. After the 2007-2008 financial crisis, the USD/JPY became monofractal and stable, and yen appreciation was observed. However, the EUR/JPY became multifractal and unstable, and strong yen appreciation was observed. Various diagnostic plots for assessing the accuracy of the GP model fitted to USD/JPY and EUR/JPY are shown, and all the diagnostic plots support the fitted GP model. The shape parameters of USD/JPY and EUR/JPY were close to zero, therefore the USD/JPY and EUR/JPY did not have finite upper limits. We predicted the maximum return level for the return periods of 10, 20, 50, 100, 350, and 500 years and their respective 95% confidence intervals (CI). As a result, the 10-year and 100-year return levels for USD/JPY were estimated to be 149.6 and 164.8, with 95% CI [143.2, 156.0] and [149.4, 180.1], respectively.

An Analysis on Cultural Values of Companies from China and the United States——Based on Hofstede's Cultural Dimension Theory

Nowadays, commercial competition is becoming fiercer and fiercer, and with the globalization proceeding, when a company tries to expand, promote and develop, it needs to adapt itself to the open business society while not losing its own culture. Since English has been widely used in the world, an effective and suitable English website is essential for a company to use as a kind of advertisement and publicity, where its cultural values are presented.With companies' websites as subjects and Hofstede's cultural dimension theory as the theoretical basis, this study, through text content and data analysis of company profiles,strategies and cultures, tries to find out the tendency of Chinese and American companies on the five cultural value dimensions,which is power distance, uncertainty avoidance, individualism, masculinity and long-term orientation. Accordingly, constructive suggestions are put forward to help appease and avoid misunderstandings, and promote business communication and collaboration.

SOLUTIONS TO DISCRETE MULTIPARAMETER PERIODIC BOUNDARY VALUE PROBLEMS INVOLVING THE p-LAPLACIAN VIA CRITICAL POINT THEORY

In this paper, we consider the existence of three nontrivial solutions for a discrete non-linear multiparameter periodic problem involving the p-Laplacian. By using the similar method for the Dirichlet boundary value problems in [C. Bonanno and P. Candito, Appl. Anal., 88（4） （2009）, pp. 605-616], we construct two new strong maximum principles and obtain that the boundary value problem has three positive solutions for λ and μ in some suitable intervals. The approaches we use are the critical point theory.

A Color Image Encryption Scheme Based on Singular Values and Chaos

The security of digital images transmitted via the Internet or other public media is of the utmost importance.Image encryption is a method of keeping an image secure while it travels across a non-secure communication medium where it could be intercepted by unauthorized entities.This study provides an approach to color image encryption that could find practical use in various contexts.The proposed method,which combines four chaotic systems,employs singular value decomposition and a chaotic sequence,making it both secure and compression-friendly.The unified average change intensity,the number of pixels’change rate,information entropy analysis,correlation coefficient analysis,compression friendliness,and security against brute force,statistical analysis and differential attacks are all used to evaluate the algorithm’s performance.Following a thorough investigation of the experimental data,it is concluded that the proposed image encryption approach is secure against a wide range of attacks and provides superior compression friendliness when compared to chaos-based alternatives.

Network Traffic Based on GARCH-M Model and Extreme Value Theory

GARCH-M ( generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity in the mean) model is used to analyse the volatility clustering phenomenon in mobile communication network traffic. Normal distribution, t distribution and generalized Pareto distribution assumptions are adopted re- spectively to simulate the random component in the model. The demonstration of the quantile of network traffic series indicates that common GARCH-M model can partially deal with the "fat tail" problem. However, the "fat tail" characteristic of the random component directly affects the accura- cy of the calculation. Even t distribution is based on the assumption for all the data. On the other hand, extreme value theory, which only concentrates on the tail distribution, can provide more ac- curate result for high quantiles. The best result is obtained based on the generalized Pareto distribu- tion assumption for the random component in the GARCH-M model.

Analysis of Japan and World Records in the 100 m Dash Using Extreme Value Theory

Extreme value theory provides methods to analyze the most extreme parts of data. We predicted the ultimate 100 m dash records for men and women for specific periods using the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. The various diagnostic plots, which assessed the accuracy of the GEV model, were well fitted to the 100 m records in the world and Japan, validating the model. The men’s world record had a shape parameter of -0.250 with a 95% confidence interval of [-0.391, -0.109]. The 100 m record had a finite limit and a calculated upper limit was 9.46 s. The return level estimates for the men’s world record were 9.74, 9.62, and 9.58 s with a 95% confidence interval of [9.69, 9.79], [9.54, 9.69], and [9.48, 9.67] for 10-, 100- and 350-year return periods, respectively. In one year, the probability of occurrence for a new world record of men, 9.58 s (Usain Bolt), was 1/350, while that for women, 10.49 s (Florence Griffith-Joyner), was about 1/100, confirming it was more difficult for men to break records than women.

Analyzing the Annual Maximum Magnitude of Earthquakes in Japan by Extreme Value Theory

One of the most important and interesting issues associated with the earthquakes is the long-term trend of the extreme events. Extreme value theory provides methods for analysis of the most extreme parts of data. We estimated the annual maximum magnitude of earthquakes in Japan by extreme value theory using earthquake data between 1900 and 2019. Generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution was applied to fit the extreme indices. The distribution was used to estimate the probability of extreme values in specified time periods. The various diagnostic plots for assessing the accuracy of the GEV model fitted to the magnitude of maximum earthquakes data in Japan gave the validity of the GEV model. The extreme value index, ξ was evaluated as −0.163, with a 95% confidence interval of [−0.260, −0.0174] by the use of profile likelihood. Hence, the annual maximum magnitude of earthquakes has a finite upper limit. We obtained the maximum return level for the return periods of 10, 20, 50, 100 and 500 years along with their respective 95% confidence interval. Further, to get a more accurate confidence interval, we estimated the profile log-likelihood. The return level estimate was obtained as 7.83, 8.60 and 8.99, with a 95% confidence interval of [7.67, 8.06], [8.32, 9.21] and [8.61, 10.0] for the 10-, 100- and 500-year return periods, respectively. Hence, the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake, which was the largest in the observation history of Japan, had a magnitude of 9.0, and it was a phenomenon that occurs once every 500 year.

On the Aesthetic Value of the Theory of Survival and the Theory of Death in the Works of Franz Kafka

The problem of "life and death" has been a confusing proposition of philosophy since long ago,for which philosophers both at home and abroad take great pains to pursue the answer.The problem of"life and death"is also attractive for litterateurs.This paper attempts to scrutinize the works of Franz Kafka and based on comments of different critics,simply analyzing the theory of survival and the theory of death and exploring the aesthetic value.Through analysis,the author of this paper concludes that the theory of survival in the works of Kafka tends to express hating of not being favored by chances and the fright and anxiety of the time;on the contrary,the theory of death in his works tends to express worship and belief.Both life and death are expressed vividly in his works,showing the brave pursuit of senior artistic forms of Kafka and the essence of its aesthetic value.

Empirical Analysis of Value-at-Risk Estimation Methods Using Extreme Value Theory

This paper investigates methods of value-at-risk (VaR) estimation using extreme value theory (EVT). It compares two different estimation methods, 'two-step subsample bootstrap' based on moment estimation and maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), according to their theoretical bases and computation procedures. Then, the estimation results are analyzed together with those of normal method and empirical method. The empirical research of foreign exchange data shows that the EVT methods have good characters in estimating VaR under extreme conditions and 'two-step subsample bootstrap' method is preferable to MLE.

A Power Allocation Scheme Using Updated SLNR Value Based on Perturbation Theory

The performance of downlink multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) cellular networks is limited by co-channel interference (CCI). In this paper, we propose a linear precoding scheme based on signal-to-leakage-and-noise ratio (SLNR) criteria which can reduce the CCI significantly. Since each user’s SLNR value is corresponding to the largest eigenvalue of the generalized matrix which indicates the channel quality that we propose a scheme to do a dynamic power allocation as an auxiliary way to improve SLNR precoding scheme. We use the perturbation theory to update each user’s SLNR value each time step in time-varying channels rather than directly decompose the channel matrix so as to reduce the amount of calculation. The simulation results show that the proposed scheme offers about 0.3 bps/Hz additional capacity gain and 0.5 dB BER gain over conventional SLNR precoding method with lower computational complexity. And it also obtains about 0.5 bps/Hz additional capacity gain and 1 dB BER gain compared to the scheme only update the preceding vectors.

Exploring a Deep Analysis Method for “Click-Stream” Information from the Perspective of the Flow of Bidirectional Value of Customer Relations Based on Ricoeur's Hermeneutic Theory

Click-streams of online shopping are the tracks/trails of interactions between a customer and a vendor.We observe that it is of great importance both in theory and practice to explore a deep analysis method for analyzing click-stream information of an individual customer in a specific transaction for understanding the bidirectional value transfer within the machine-human interaction of an online store and for its personalization.We analyze the significance,the hierarchical structure and the characteristics of click-stream information and propose that Ricoeur's hermeneutic theory be the foundation of forming such a deep analysis method.Then we use the empirical context information of the click-stream to improve the naive interpretation put forward by Ricoeur.Moreover,we apply the Grounded Theory to extend the deep analysis of Ricoeur's theory of textual interpretation.The improved theory fits well with the needs of interpretation and the analysis of click-stream information.We exemplify and show the feasibility of this analysis method by using data collected(a single case)from a large study of human-computer interaction.

Estimation of Dynamic VaR in Chinese Stock Markets Based on Time Scale and Extreme Value Theory

The accuracy and time scale invariance of value-at-risk （VaR） measurement methods for different stock indices and at different confidence levels are tested. Extreme value theory （EVT） is applied to model the extreme tail of standardized residual series of daily/weekly indices losses, and parametric and nonparametric methods are used to estimate parameters of the general Pareto distribution （GPD）, and dynamic VaR for indices of three stock markets in China. The accuracy and time scale invariance of risk measurement methods through back-testing approach are also examined. Results show that not all the indices accept time scale invariance; there are some differences in accuracy between different indices at various confidence levels. The most powerful dynamic VaR estimation methods are EVT-GJR-Hill at 97.5% level for weekly loss to Shanghai stock market, and EVT-GARCH-MLE （Hill） at 99.0% level for weekly loss to Taiwan and Hong Kong stock markets, respectively.

Riemann Hypothesis and Value Distribution Theory

Riemann Hypothesis was posed by Riemann in early 50’s of the 19th century in his thesis titled “The Number of Primes less than a Given Number”. It is one of the unsolved “Supper” problems of mathematics. The Riemann Hypothesis is closely related to the well-known Prime Number Theorem. The Riemann Hypothesis states that all the nontrivial zeros of the zeta-function lie on the “critical line” . In this paper, we use Nevanlinna’s Second Main Theorem in the value distribution theory, refute the Riemann Hypothesis. In reference [7], we have already given a proof of refute the Riemann Hypothesis. In this paper, we gave out the second proof, please read the reference.