For oil company decision-makers,the principal concern is how to allocate their limited resources into the most valuable opportunities.Recently a new management philosophy,＂Beyond NPV＂,has received more and more inte...For oil company decision-makers,the principal concern is how to allocate their limited resources into the most valuable opportunities.Recently a new management philosophy,＂Beyond NPV＂,has received more and more international attention.Economists and senior executives are seeking effective alternative analysis approaches for traditional technical and economic evaluation methods.The improved portfolio optimization model presented in this article represents an applicable technique beyond NPV for doing capital budgeting.In this proposed model,not only can oil company executives achieve trade-offs between returns and risks to their risk tolerance,but they can also employ an ＂operational premium＂ to distinguish their ability to improve the performance of the underlying projects.A simulation study based on 19 overseas upstream assets owned by a large oil company in China is conducted to compare optimized utility with non-optimized utility.The simulation results show that the petroleum optimization model including ＂operational premium＂ is more in line with the rational investors＇ demand.展开更多
The operational stability and economy of multi-energy systems(MES)are threatened by various uncertainties,such as variable renewable energy power,energy demands,and weather conditions.Most of the existing methods for ...The operational stability and economy of multi-energy systems(MES)are threatened by various uncertainties,such as variable renewable energy power,energy demands,and weather conditions.Most of the existing methods for the dispatch decisions of MES are based on the prescribed probability distribution or uncertainty sets of random variables,which have many disadvantages,such as potential infeasibility and over-conservatism.In this paper,we propose a novel dispatch model for MES that integrates dispatch decision making,uncertainty set selection,and operational cost control into a unified framework.First,the deterministic dispatch model of MES is introduced,in which the physical characteristics of district heating systems and buildings are fully considered.Then,a novel decision framework that combines the two-stage dispatch strategy and info-gap decision theory(IGDT)is proposed for MES,where the uncertainty set is flexible and can be optimized based on the operational cost budget.Finally,a revised algorithm,based on the column-and-constraint generation method,is proposed for the model.Case studies are performed on MES that includes a 33-bus distribution system and a heating network modified from a real 51-node network located in Jinlin Province,China.The results verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.展开更多
基金financial support from National Science and Technology Major Project of the Ministry of Science and Technology of China"Research on Investment estimation tools and economic appraisal system integration and development"(2011ZX05030-006-04)
文摘For oil company decision-makers,the principal concern is how to allocate their limited resources into the most valuable opportunities.Recently a new management philosophy,＂Beyond NPV＂,has received more and more international attention.Economists and senior executives are seeking effective alternative analysis approaches for traditional technical and economic evaluation methods.The improved portfolio optimization model presented in this article represents an applicable technique beyond NPV for doing capital budgeting.In this proposed model,not only can oil company executives achieve trade-offs between returns and risks to their risk tolerance,but they can also employ an ＂operational premium＂ to distinguish their ability to improve the performance of the underlying projects.A simulation study based on 19 overseas upstream assets owned by a large oil company in China is conducted to compare optimized utility with non-optimized utility.The simulation results show that the petroleum optimization model including ＂operational premium＂ is more in line with the rational investors＇ demand.
基金the National Science Foundation of China(52207080)in part by the State Grid Jiangsu Electric Power Company Science and Technology Project(J2020001)in part by the National Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province(BK20200404).
文摘The operational stability and economy of multi-energy systems(MES)are threatened by various uncertainties,such as variable renewable energy power,energy demands,and weather conditions.Most of the existing methods for the dispatch decisions of MES are based on the prescribed probability distribution or uncertainty sets of random variables,which have many disadvantages,such as potential infeasibility and over-conservatism.In this paper,we propose a novel dispatch model for MES that integrates dispatch decision making,uncertainty set selection,and operational cost control into a unified framework.First,the deterministic dispatch model of MES is introduced,in which the physical characteristics of district heating systems and buildings are fully considered.Then,a novel decision framework that combines the two-stage dispatch strategy and info-gap decision theory(IGDT)is proposed for MES,where the uncertainty set is flexible and can be optimized based on the operational cost budget.Finally,a revised algorithm,based on the column-and-constraint generation method,is proposed for the model.Case studies are performed on MES that includes a 33-bus distribution system and a heating network modified from a real 51-node network located in Jinlin Province,China.The results verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.
