It is adequate to use the gray theory for modeling and forecasting short-term calamity series. The forecast of calamity gray series is equivalent to predicting an extraordinary event in nature. In order to look for th...It is adequate to use the gray theory for modeling and forecasting short-term calamity series. The forecast of calamity gray series is equivalent to predicting an extraordinary event in nature. In order to look for the regularity, the calamity date series, created from the threshold for a fixed time-interval series, are studied. In this paper, the Hurst exponent is applied to defining the long-term memory effect of the simulated calamity series, and is tested for the feasibility of using it as pre-requisite information before the gray modeling and forecasting. Based on the fractional Brownian motion (fBm) model, the time series with a definite length or quantity of data are derived assuming that various kinds of memory effect exist. Different threshold values are defined to yield or to analogize the calamity date series that are required in the prediction of the gray calamity events. After case study, both of the simulated and real seismic data show that the Hurst exponents are greater than 0.5 and, therefore, indicate that the long-term memory ef-fect exists. The correlation between the Hurst exponent and the gray modeling parameter, a, provides criteria for the classification of the forecast.展开更多
CORPORATE WHISTLEBLOWER'S ARREST HIGHLIGHTS HISTORY OF BUSINESS ABUSING LOCAL LAWS TO PERSECUTE ENEMIESA"fake medicine"scandal has ignited a nationwide furor over police procedure,with no less than China...CORPORATE WHISTLEBLOWER'S ARREST HIGHLIGHTS HISTORY OF BUSINESS ABUSING LOCAL LAWS TO PERSECUTE ENEMIESA"fake medicine"scandal has ignited a nationwide furor over police procedure,with no less than China's official Xinhua News Agency calling for public security bureaus(PSB)to"exercise power doubly prudently"following the threemonth detention of a corporate whistleblower.展开更多
The impact of recessive calamities was analyzed,including seasonal drought,cold injury,dry hot wind and aphid in the wheat production of Chuxiong Prefecture,and the countermeasures that prevented and controlled the re...The impact of recessive calamities was analyzed,including seasonal drought,cold injury,dry hot wind and aphid in the wheat production of Chuxiong Prefecture,and the countermeasures that prevented and controlled the recessive calamities in a target-oriented way were proposed,including the improvement of basic farmland,the application of organic manure,the promotion of the breed with high stress resistance,the seedling at suitable date,the improvement of control on fertilizing and watering,the enhancement of management on cultivating and controlling disease in time,and the breeding new variety adaptive to local ecosystem,in order to advance the wheat production in a sustainable way.展开更多
The social and cultural norms shape gender roles which sometimes deprive women of the opportunity to prepare for natural calamities. But the disastrous effect of natural disasters spares no one. It knows no gender. Mo...The social and cultural norms shape gender roles which sometimes deprive women of the opportunity to prepare for natural calamities. But the disastrous effect of natural disasters spares no one. It knows no gender. Most of the time, women more than men bear the worse of consequences. The study measures and describes the impact of disaster preparedness sessions on the perception of economically challenged women in Philippines. By using a mixed qualitative and quantitative research method the study found that: 1) the majority of women participants are willing to undergo training in disaster preparedness;2) their awareness in disaster preparedness improved from “basic” to “high” level;3) their level of action in disaster preparedness is still on the “planning stage” and;4) the program effectively changed their attitude towards disaster preparedness and mitigation. The study provided insights on the potential of women in disaster preparedness toward a disaster resilient Filipino community.展开更多
By reviewing the general state of urban flood calamities of the past 40 years and more, this article tries to explore the causes of urban flood, especitlly the man-made factors. It puts forward the ideas of setting up...By reviewing the general state of urban flood calamities of the past 40 years and more, this article tries to explore the causes of urban flood, especitlly the man-made factors. It puts forward the ideas of setting up a comprehensive system for urban flood prevention. This comprehensive system consists of six sub-systems such as: 1) command system; 2) system of flood control and drainage works; 3) system of keeping away of flood and coping with flood; 4) system of flood forecast; 5) flood -fighting and rescue system; 6) flood-preventing legislative and insurance system. This article also puts forward the counter-measures to avert floods and reduce the calamities.I.The General State of Urban Flood Calamities for the Last Few Years in展开更多
文摘It is adequate to use the gray theory for modeling and forecasting short-term calamity series. The forecast of calamity gray series is equivalent to predicting an extraordinary event in nature. In order to look for the regularity, the calamity date series, created from the threshold for a fixed time-interval series, are studied. In this paper, the Hurst exponent is applied to defining the long-term memory effect of the simulated calamity series, and is tested for the feasibility of using it as pre-requisite information before the gray modeling and forecasting. Based on the fractional Brownian motion (fBm) model, the time series with a definite length or quantity of data are derived assuming that various kinds of memory effect exist. Different threshold values are defined to yield or to analogize the calamity date series that are required in the prediction of the gray calamity events. After case study, both of the simulated and real seismic data show that the Hurst exponents are greater than 0.5 and, therefore, indicate that the long-term memory ef-fect exists. The correlation between the Hurst exponent and the gray modeling parameter, a, provides criteria for the classification of the forecast.
文摘CORPORATE WHISTLEBLOWER'S ARREST HIGHLIGHTS HISTORY OF BUSINESS ABUSING LOCAL LAWS TO PERSECUTE ENEMIESA"fake medicine"scandal has ignited a nationwide furor over police procedure,with no less than China's official Xinhua News Agency calling for public security bureaus(PSB)to"exercise power doubly prudently"following the threemonth detention of a corporate whistleblower.
基金Supported by Chinese Modern Agriculture Industrial Technology Construction Program(CARS-3)
文摘The impact of recessive calamities was analyzed,including seasonal drought,cold injury,dry hot wind and aphid in the wheat production of Chuxiong Prefecture,and the countermeasures that prevented and controlled the recessive calamities in a target-oriented way were proposed,including the improvement of basic farmland,the application of organic manure,the promotion of the breed with high stress resistance,the seedling at suitable date,the improvement of control on fertilizing and watering,the enhancement of management on cultivating and controlling disease in time,and the breeding new variety adaptive to local ecosystem,in order to advance the wheat production in a sustainable way.
文摘The social and cultural norms shape gender roles which sometimes deprive women of the opportunity to prepare for natural calamities. But the disastrous effect of natural disasters spares no one. It knows no gender. Most of the time, women more than men bear the worse of consequences. The study measures and describes the impact of disaster preparedness sessions on the perception of economically challenged women in Philippines. By using a mixed qualitative and quantitative research method the study found that: 1) the majority of women participants are willing to undergo training in disaster preparedness;2) their awareness in disaster preparedness improved from “basic” to “high” level;3) their level of action in disaster preparedness is still on the “planning stage” and;4) the program effectively changed their attitude towards disaster preparedness and mitigation. The study provided insights on the potential of women in disaster preparedness toward a disaster resilient Filipino community.
文摘By reviewing the general state of urban flood calamities of the past 40 years and more, this article tries to explore the causes of urban flood, especitlly the man-made factors. It puts forward the ideas of setting up a comprehensive system for urban flood prevention. This comprehensive system consists of six sub-systems such as: 1) command system; 2) system of flood control and drainage works; 3) system of keeping away of flood and coping with flood; 4) system of flood forecast; 5) flood -fighting and rescue system; 6) flood-preventing legislative and insurance system. This article also puts forward the counter-measures to avert floods and reduce the calamities.I.The General State of Urban Flood Calamities for the Last Few Years in
