Climate change vulnerability assessment in the new urban planning process in Tanzania

Climate change vulnerability assessment is an essential tool for identifying regions that are most susceptible to the impacts of climate change and designing effective adaptation actions that can reduce vulnerability and enhance long-term resilience of these regions.This study explored a framework for climate change vulnerability assessment in the new urban planning process in Jangwani Ward,Tanzania.Specifically,taking flood as an example,this study highlighted the steps and methods for climate change vulnerability assessment in the new urban planning process.In the study area,95 households were selected and interviewed through purposeful sampling.Additionally,10 respondents(4 females and 6 males)were interviewed for Focus Group Discussion(FGD),and 3 respondents(1 female and 2 males)were selected for Key Informant Interviews(KII)at the Ministry of Lands,Housing and Human Settlements Development.This study indicated that climate change vulnerability assessment framework involves the assessment of climatic hazards,risk elements,and adaptive capacity,and the determination of vulnerability levels.The average hazard risk rating of flood was 2.3.Socioeconomic and livelihood activities and physical infrastructures both had the average risk element rating of 3.0,and ecosystems had the average risk element rating of 2.9.Adaptive capacity ratings of knowledge,technology,economy or finance,and institution were 1.6,1.9,1.4,and 2.2,respectively.The vulnerability levels of socioeconomic and livelihood activities and physical infrastructure were very high(4.0).Ecosystems had a high vulnerability level(3.8)to flood.The very high vulnerability level of socioeconomic and livelihood activities was driven by high exposure and sensitivity to risk elements and low adaptive capacity.The study recommends adoption of the new urban planning process including preparation,planning,implementation,and monitoring-evaluation-review phases that integrates climate change vulnerability assessment in all phases.

Perceptions of Bark Beetle Landscape Disturbance Effects on Natural Resources and Drinking Water: Assessing Communication and Knowledge Exchange in the Rocky Mountain Region, USA

Widespread changes to forested watersheds affected by the mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) epidemic across western North America raised concerns about the effects of this climate-induced disturbance on drinking water and natural resources. Effective communication and knowledge exchange across scientists and stakeholders (i.e., drinking water managers) is essential for constructively responding to such landscape scale disturbances, providing improved adaptive capacity through knowledge sharing. An assessment of stakeholder knowledge levels, information needs, primary concerns, and suggested communication strategies were conducted via an online elicitation survey and World Science Café workshops. Knowledge levels, assessed via a survey of local water managers and experts, were relatively low with approximately half of the respondents reporting little to no knowledge of the effects of mountain pine beetle on drinking water quality and quantity, thereby indicating limited knowledge exchange between scientists and drinking water stakeholders. Increased accessibility and dissemination of research findings pertinent to the mountain pine beetle epidemic’s effects on drinking water quality and quantity is necessary for natural resource management. Recommendations for improved communication among scientists and drinking water stakeholders in particular and forest health in general include dispersal of non-academic research summaries, information exchange through existing media and community resources, demonstration projects, and information clearinghouses. This information provides a better understanding of the challenges, concerns, and first-hand experience of stakeholders of a landscape disturbance issue to apply this knowledge to enhance land management practice and how researchers on this overall project enhanced science communication efforts.

Assessing Vulnerability to Drought Based on Exposure,Sensitivity and Adaptive Capacity:A Case Study in Middle Inner Mongolia of China

In this paper,we proposed a framework for evaluating the performance of ecosystem strategies prepared for enhancing vulnerability reduction in the face of hazards due to climate change.The framework highlights the positive effects of human activities in the coupled human and natural system(CHANS) by introducing adaptive capacity as an evaluation criterion.A built-in regional vulnerability to a certain hazard was generated based upon interaction of three dimensions of vulnerability:exposure,sensitivity and adaptive capacity.We illustrated the application of this framework in the temperate farming-grazing transitional zone in the middle Inner Mongolia of the northern China,where drought hazard is the key threat to the CHANS.Specific indices were produced to translate such climate variance and social-economic differences into specific indicators.The results showed that the most exposed regions are the inner land areas,while counties located in the eastern part are potentially the most adaptive ones.Ordos City and Bayannur City are most frequently influenced by multiple climate variances,showing highest sensitivity.Analysis also indicated that differences in the ability to adapt to changes are the main causes of spatial differences.After depiction of the spatial differentiations and analysis of the reasons,climate zones were divided to depict the differences in facing to the drought threats.The climate zones were shown to be similar to vulnerability zones based on the quantitative structure of indexes drafted by a triangular map.Further analysis of the composition of the vulnerability index showed that the evaluation criteria were effective in validating the spatial differentiation but potentially ineffective because of their limited time scope.This research will be a demonstration of how to combine the three dimensions by quantitative methods and will thus provide a guide for government to vulnerability reduction management.

Case Study: Reviewing Methods of Assessing Community Adaptive Capacity for Jefferson County, Texas

With the increased attention on community sustainability and resilience, different poles have developed voicing similarities and/or differences of the two concepts. This study quantifies adaptive capacity of Jefferson County, Texas, one of the coastal communities at the Gulf of Mexico having some of the worse adverse effects. Review of existing methods is presented. Analyses were conducted for the last ten years: from 2005 to 2014. Interestingly, statistical analyses showed that the County’s socio-economic profile or indicators have not changed throughout the ten years, but the environmental, institutional, and infrastructure indicators have. Focusing on one location magnifies the adaptive capacity of Jefferson County, the temporal aspect of both perspectives, and the relevance of existing methods to this community with its peculiarities. Future assessments need to be based on primary data collected through participatory engagement of all stakeholders. This calls for attempts to quantify adaptive capacity using the comparatively more challenging deductive reasoning, which would allow for incorporation of more risks and thus higher readiness.

Investigation on children's social adaptive capacity

Objective: To understand the present conditions of Children's social adaptive capacity. Methods: Using the social viability measuring list on infants-junior middle school students revised by Zuo Qi-hua, the social viability and its influence factors were investigated on 628 Children in,7 kindergartens of 4 cities in Chi-na. Results: The general trend of development of Child''s social adaptive capacity was fairly good. The rele-vance ratio on the edge level was 0. 3%. Of them 16.4% and 7% were excellent and extraordinary intelli-gence respectively. The family environment had played a very important role in child''s social adaptive capaci-ty. Conclusion: The research revealed that in the respect of training a child''s social adaptive ability, the ini-tiative of each family should be brought into full play and we should surmount the negative influence, and solve the contradiction between releasing one''s control and taking care of everything, and arouse the con-scious activity of the child, and ensure the unity and balance between the child''s own body and the living en-vironment.

Exposure, sensitivity, and social adaptive capacity related to climate change:empirical research in China

The present research established a preliminary indicator assessment system satisfying Chinese characters for exposure, sensitivity, and social adaptive capacity related to climate change. The 31 province-level administrative regions in China's Mainland were considered in our research. We developed three dimensions of indices related to climate change, including primary, secondary,and tertiary indicators. We chose all variables and indicators based on a literature review and used principal component analysis and the varimax method to develop a weighted assessment index system. Districts in central China scored higher on the overall exposure index than other sample districts, western China generally exhibited higher sensitivity, and eastern China exhibited comparatively higher social adaptive capacity than the other regions. This study also provides perspective for adaptation policies that all regions in China could adopt to determine development direction decision-making based on their specific conditions and diversified comparative advantages to enhance adaptive capacity in response to climate change.

Climate Change vs Cultural Heritage: An Adaptation Strategy for the Archaeological Site of Ancient Messene

This article examines the effects of climate change on archaeological sites, using as a case study the archaeological site of Ancient Messene in Greece, and proposes an integrated adaptation strategy. In order to determine the site’s most significant risks, a climate data analysis was conducted, taking into account three different climate emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways) and two future periods (2031-2060, 2071-2100). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) vulnerability assessment methodology was adopted to assess the vulnerability of the archaeological site to the effects of climate change. This is the first time such a methodology has been followed in Greece. The analysis revealed that the site’s critical hazards are fire, desertification, and flooding. The geographical location of the site in an intensely dry microclimate and the lack of safe and functional electromechanical and road infrastructure increase its vulnerability. The materials of the monuments are indirectly and directly impacted by climate change, whereas the vegetation is negatively impacted by the frequency of extreme events, especially wildfires. Based on the analysis results, a five-axis adaptation strategy was developed.

Gender Perspectives of Vulnerability to Climate Change: A Descriptive Evidence from Farming Households at Ikpayongo Community in Gwer Lga, Benue State, Nigeria

Climate change impact and risks on agricultural livelihood affect women and men disproportionately and often to the disadvantage of women and girls. Consequently, this study assessed gender perspectives of vulnerability to climate change of farming households at Ikpayongo community in Gwer local government area, Benue State, Nigeria using descriptive approach. The study identified a total of 120 male-headed and female-headed farming households across four neighbourhoods and administered structured questionnaire on them using simple random sampling method, while data analysis was done using descriptive statistics. The results indicate lower education and income status among female-headed households, though male-headed households have high household size. Both sexes have relatively equal access to land for farming, however men have large farm size compared to women. The major crops cultivated by men were rice and yam, while women cultivated largely groundnut and cassava. Women are more exposed and sensitive to climate-related hazards such as floods and heat stress due to the location of their farms. The result further shows that males possess better adaptive capacity given their higher incomes, social networks and more access to training/capacity building programmes and credit facilities. The study concludes that female-headed farming households are more vulnerable to climate change and variability than male-headed farming households due to higher exposure and a lower adaptive capacity. Programme and policies to improve women access to credit facilities and relevant training to boost their adaptive capacity and build resilience are highly recommended. This would also limit exposure with attendant reduction in vulnerability.

Coastal Vulnerability Assessment of Rapu-Rapu and the West Coast of Albay Province, Philippines

Coastal vulnerability assessment using the Integrated Sensitivity, Exposure, and Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment (ICSEA-C-Change) tool provides a deeper understanding of the potential impacts of climate change on coastal zones. Vulnerability ratings were obtained using rubrics that were presented to the stakeholders during focused group discussions. Derived scores were then averaged and consolidated to come up with the overall vulnerability rating. These ratings were based on the resource and status of coastal habitats’ reliance on near-shore fishing and other quality measures like fisheries ecosystem dependency, population, and water quality of the coastal habitats in the barangays. Ratings resulted in identifying 12 barangays out of 23 that are highly vulnerable to climate change impacts such as waves, storm surges, sea level rise, increase in surface temperature, and extreme rainfall. These are Buenavista and Basicao (Pioduran), Catburawan (Ligao), Tapel, Nagas and Maramba (Oas), Talin-Talin, Pantao, Macabugos, and Tambo (Libon) and Buhatan and Villa Hermosa (Rapu-Rapu). Assessment results were highly influenced by the absence of three major marine habitats, i.e., coral reefs, seagrass/seaweeds, and mangroves in the coastal areas. Likewise, 11 barangays out of 23, which were Marigondon and Malidong (Pioduran), Maonon and Cabarian (Ligao), Badian and Cagmanaba (Oas), Apud and Rawis (Libon), and Galicia, Hamorawon, and Poblacion (Rapu-Rapu) obtained moderate vulnerability scores. This was attributed to the presence of marine habitats that although in poor state, may serve their ecological functioning when properly protected. Highly vulnerable barangays must be prioritized in coastal rehabilitation and disaster risk reduction management planning. Parameters encompassing the sensitivity and adaptive capacity of each barangay must be taken into consideration to reduce potential impacts brought by factors attributed to climate change. Vital information from the assessment will serve as basis for developing strategic plans for improving the climate change adaptation strategies of the local government units.

Young and old forest in the boreal:critical stages of ecosystem dynamics and management under global change

The circumboreal forest encompasses diverse landscape structures, dynamics and forest age distributions determined by their physical setting, and historical and current disturbance regimes. However, due to intensifying forest utilisation, and in certain areas due to increasing natural disturbances, boreal forest age-class structures have changed rapidly, so that the proportion of old forest has substantially declined, while that of young post-harvest and post-natural-disturbance forest proportions have increased. In the future, with a warming climate in certain boreal regions, this trend may further be enhanced due to an increase in natural disturbances and large-scale use of forest biomass to replace fossil-based fuels and products.The major drivers of change of forest age class distributions and structures include the use of clearcut shortrotation harvesting, more frequent and severe natural disturbances due to climate warming in certain regions. The decline in old forest area, and increase in managed young forest lacking natural post-disturbance structural legacies,represent a major transformation in the ecological conditions of the boreal forest beyond historical limits of variability.This may introduce a threat to biodiversity, ecosystem resilience and long-term adaptive capacity of the forest ecosystem.To safeguard boreal forest biodiversity and ecosystem functioning, and to maintain the multiple services provided to societies by this forest biome, it is pivotal to maintain an adequate share and the ecological qualities of young postdisturbance stages, along with mature forest stages with old-growth characteristics. This requires management for natural post-disturbance legacy structures, and innovative use of diverse uneven-aged and continuous cover management approaches to maintain critical late-successional forest structures in landscapes.

Vulnerability assessment of water resources to climate change in Chinese cities

Climate change is an inevitable trend,which challenges security of water resources in China,especially in cities.Assessing vulnerability of water resource to climate change in cities has important role for policy makers. The paper constructs a vulnerability function,including exposure,sensitivity and adaptive capacity,according to the vulnerability concept proposed by IPCC,establishes an assessment indicators system of water resources to climate change in cities,and analyzes vulnerability features of Chinese cites based on 655 cities＇data in 2006.The vulnerability assessment results show that there are distinctive differences among all the cities,between east,central and west cities,between ordinary,big and mega cities,while there is no statistical significant difference between north and south cities.Based on the research,the paper suggests that strategic emphasis should focus on the central cities and ordinary cities

Vulnerability of Kenya’s Water Towers to Future Climate Change: An Assessment to Inform Decision Making in Watershed Management

Recent trends show that in the coming decades, Kenya’s natural resources will continue to face significant pressure due to both anthropogenic and natural stressors, and this will have greater negative impacts on socio-economic development including food security and livelihoods. Understanding the impacts of these stressors is an important step to developing coping and adaptation strategies at every level. The Water Towers of Kenya play a critical role in supplying ecosystems services such as water supply, timber and non-timber forest products and regulating services such as climate and water quantity and quality. To assess the vulnerability of the Water Towers to climate change, the study adopted the IPCC AR4 framework that defines vulnerability as a function of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. The historical trends in rainfall indicate that the three Water Towers show a declining rainfall trend during the March-April-May (MAM) main rainy season, while the October-November-December (OND) short rainy season shows an increase. The temperature patterns are consistent with the domain having a common rising trend with a rate in the range of 0.3°C to 0.5°C per decade. Projection analysis considered three emissions scenarios: low-emission (mitigation) scenario (RCP2.6), a medium-level emission scenario (RCP4.5), and a high-emission (business as usual) scenario (RCP8.5). The results of the high-emission scenario show that the annual temperature over the Water Towers could rise by 3.0°C to 3.5°C by the 2050s (2036-2065) and 3.6°C to 4.8°C by the 2070s (2055-2085 results not presented), relative to the baseline period 1970-2000. The findings indicate that exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity vary in magnitude, as well as spatially across the Water Towers. This is reflected in the spatially variable vulnerability index across the Water Towers. Overall vulnerability will increase in the water towers leading to erosion of the resilience of the exposed ecosystems and the communities that rely on ecosystem services these landscapes provide.

International Cooperation in Adaptation to Climate Change: Foreign Agendas or Local Necessities?

The paper aims to analyze climate change adaptation projects funded from international cooperation in Veracruz, which is a Mexican state. They used 5 criteria based on international, national and local dimensions as well as their relation to climate adaptation. From this evaluation, they were able to determine that the results were particularly negative. Mostly, because the objectives set by donor countries are scarcely related to the objectives and priorities of recipient countries, in this case developing countries, which are the most vulnerable to climate change. This provides insight into international collaborative projects in developing states and their impact on the socioeconomic, environmental and vulnerable ecosystems.

Livelihood Diversification as an Adaptation Approach to Change in the Pastoral Hindu-Kush Himalayan Region

Migratory livestock raising has been one of the most important livelihood options for people residing in high mountain areas and has made a significant contribution to the economy of the Hindu Kush Himalayan(HKH) region, both in terms of supporting households and in export earnings. However, in recent decades, changes in the socioeconomic situation and increasing climate variability have led to a need to enhance adaptation by building the resilience of local socio-ecological systems, including economic diversification and sustainable management of natural resources. Based on semistructured interviews with pastoral communities in six countries within the pastoral HKH region, this paper discusses the situation, trends and driving forces behind the diversification of pastoral livelihood. For internal diversification the study highlights the need for enhancement of pastoral livelihoods through value-adding activities in the pastoral sectors. For external diversification changes on policy changes are needed to support free out-migration, market exploitation, and multiple resource use. Finally the paper highlights the role of education in determining household adaptation strategies in the face of various socio-ecological pressures and recommends integrating innovative and indigenous knowledge to develop appropriate methods for risk management and resource management in the pastoral HKH region.

Exploratory Analyses for Water Quality of the Gulf of Mexico Basin, Texas, 2005-2014

With the increased demand for more water sources, the issues of water quality have become more important. This study presents exploratory data analyses on water quality issues related to the Gulf of Mexico Basin in Texas for the last decade: 2005-2014. Dissolved oxygen, water temperature, specific conductance, PH, transparency, sampling depth and Enterococci observations for the ten years from 2005 to 2014 were analyzed. Statistical testing showed that the observations followed similar distributions between the years. Thus they were combined for each of the variables. Throughout the ten years transparency, water temperature, specific conductance, and Enterococci showed higher variances. Pair-wise correlations were negligible but they had positive spatial autocorrelation. Sampling was constantly conducted in the four months of February, May, August, and November. Water temperature, dissolved oxygen and Enterococci concentrations varied significantly during these four months. Univariate spatial regressions showed that Enterococci is predicted to increase whereas dissolved oxygen, PH, water temperature, specific conductances were predicted to decrease.

Vulnerability assessment of crop production to climate change across Northwest China during 1995–2014

Crop production vulnerability to climate change in Northwest China depends upon multiple socio-ecological factors.Knowledge regarding the specific indicators and methods suitable for assessing crop production vulnerability is limited that address spatiotemporal variations across large and diverse zones.We propose an integrated assessment framework to quantify the vulnerability of crop production derived from crop yield sensitivity,exposure,and adaptive consequences across 338 counties in Northwest China during 1995–2014.Maps on these indices were generated using climatic and socioeconomic data with spatial mapping method.Different clusters of crop production vulnerability were then identified by a k-means cluster method to assess the heterogeneity of vulnerability at a regional scale.Results show that the vulnerability of crop production in 338 counties varies significantly in both geographical and socioeconomic aspects,specifically,vulnerability indicators are generally higher in Minhe,Menyuan,Hualong,and Ledu,and Xayar had the lowest value of vulnerability.This indicates that adaptation strategies for regional crop production need to focus on several levels,from the improvement of adaptive ability to crop yield fluctuation by promoting irrigation agriculture and optimizing limited water resources in typical arid areas,to agriculture-related financial policies incentivizing the capital investment and technology upgrade of crop production on traditional farming regions.This study provides convincing evidence that the factors related to socioeconomic policies are particularly alarming when a crop’s risk is compared to precipitation fluctuations.We recommend these findings be used to facilitate regional agriculture planning to reduce crop production vulnerability and ensure sustainable food security in specific regions.

Indicator Approach to Assessing Climate Change Vulnerability of Communities in Kenya: A Case Study of Kitui County

Community vulnerability to climate change can be conceptualized as an aggregate of three vulnerability components: exposure to climatic stress, sensitivity to climate stress and adaptive capacity. However, even within similar regions these vulnerability components are spatially differentiated necessitating the understanding of a regions vulnerability pattern before targeting adaptation assistance. This research sought to understand the differentiated vulnerability patterns of communities in Kitui County as well as the existing coping strategies to guide implementation of adaptation assistance. Indicator approach to vulnerability assessment and focus group discussions were used to understand the vulnerability pattern and coping strategies respectively. Results showed a differentiated vulnerability pattern with a west to east gradient across Kitui County. The pattern exhibited less vulnerability scores on the western and central parts and more vulnerability scores on the eastern and northern parts of the County. Existing coping strategies have become inadequate with increasing climate variability, severity and frequency of extreme climate events, which render the communities even more vulnerable. The patterns of vulnerability can guide appropriate targeting of adaptation assistance and in turn lead to improved climate change resilience and community livelihoods.

Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Water and Public Health in Alberta, Canada

A warming climate may affect the well-being through impacts on health and sustainability of its natural resources. Climate change, population growth, and agricultural and industrial development are increasing demand and pressure on Alberta＇s water supplies, and the risk to the health and well-being of Albertanso its economy and its aquatic ecosystems. An analytic framework was developed to help determine the adaptive capacity of the public health sector and its ability to cope with changes in climate and water quality and quantity. The framework includes possibilities for changes in public health processes, management, inputs, outputs, structure, financing, institutions, and policies. Research gaps and priorities related to impacts on the health sector from changed conditions of climate and water supply are offered.

A Nationwide Approach on Measuring Households’ Resilience by Constructing Climate Resilient Livelihoods Index (CRLI) in Rural Bangladesh

This study developed households’ Climate Resilient Livelihoods Index (CRLI) in Bangladesh. CRLI indicators were selected based on the Adequacy of Human livelihood conditions for Well-being and Development (AHEAD) framework and FAO resilience tools. The study was designed on cross-sectional data through a country-wide primary survey of 26,925 rural households. At first, we performed logistic regression to gauge the significance and intensity of different livelihood indicators on any specific livelihood indicator. Secondly, we scored each household with the set criteria of different livelihoods accessibility, if any households fulfill the set criteria was “scored 1” and if not “scored 0”. After scoring the households, eight different scores for each household were summed up to construct a composite score of “CRLI”. If any household scored 0 - 2 was considered as low resilient, if any household scored 3 - 5 was considered as moderate resilient and if any household scored 6 - 8 was considered as highly resilient. Additionally, we used ArcMap to visualize the percentage of households in districts with different resilience categories. Findings revealed that nationally 1.7% of households were low resilient, 60% of households were moderate resilient and only 11.48% of households were high resilient. More specifically, only 1.7% of households failed to secure any of the climate-resilient livelihood indicators, and only 0.06% of households secured all of them. Findings also revealed that food secured households had better adaptive capacity due to ensuring access to basic services, more financial capabilities, lower dependency ratio, and physical connectivity. In contrast, households with social safety net coverage had food insecurity, less financial ability, higher dependency ratio, lower education, and income sources. Among 64 counties, Cox’s Bazar, Bandarban, Chuadanga, Barguna, Bhola, Patuakhali, Narail, Kurigram, Sunamganj, Jamalpur, and Netrokona were the most vulnerable in terms of low CRLI. On the other hand, more than 25% of high resilient households were located in Dhaka, Gazipur, and Munshiganj counties. These findings would propel the government to devise appropriate steps in terms of more investment in area-specific local communities for enhancing regional resilience.

Adaptive Fitting Capacity Prediction Method for Lithium‑Ion Batteries

Lithium-ion batteries have become the mainstream power source for electric vehicles because of their excellent performance.However,lithium-ion batteries still experience aging and capacity attenuation during usage.It is therefore critical to accu-rately predict battery remaining capacity for increasing battery safety and prolonging battery life.This paper first adopts the metabolism grey algorithm and a simplified electrochemical model to predict battery capacity under different operating conditions.To improve the prediction performance where the capacity changes nonlinearly,a decoupling analysis of battery capacity loss is then conducted based on the simplified electrochemical model.Finally,an adaptive fitting method is devel-oped for capacity prediction,aiming at improving the prediction accuracy at the inflection point of battery capacity diving.The prediction results indicate that the developed adaptive fitting method can achieve high prediction accuracy under battery capacity attenuation at different discharge stages with errors lower than 2.2%.And the battery capacity decay shows linear variation,and the proposed method effectively forecast the inflection point of battery capacity diving.