Analysis of the Influence Factors of Grain Supply-Demand Gap in China

Based on the analysis of the grain supply and demand gap’s current situation in China, this paper establishes an indicator system for the influence factors of grain supply and demand gap. Then this paper calculates the correlation degree between the main grain varieties’ supply and demand gap and its influence factors. The results show that sown area and unit yield have the greatest impact on wheat supply and demand gap;per capita disposable income and unit yield have the greatest impact on corn supply and demand gap;per capita disposable income and agricultural mechanization level have the greatest impact on the supply and demand gap of soybean and rice. From the analysis results, we can obtain the difference between the factors affecting the grain supply and demand gap, and provide a certain theoretical basis and new ideas for the balance of grain supply and demand in China.

Analysis of China’s Crude Oil Supply and Demand in the Year 2010 and the Year 2020

Along with the speedy development of the economic growth in China, the shortage of oil and gas becomes more and more serious. Based on summarizing some related research results, the prediction of China＇s oil demand and supply in the year 2010 and the year 2020 has been given in the paper. The oil supply and demand situation is discussed on three different levels. Accordingly, suggestions about the oil supply safety and the national economy safety strategies have been given.

The Supply-Demand Analysis and Mechanism Innovation of Chinese Rural Public Goods

The connotation of rural public goods is expounded.The rural public goods refer to the products and labors that satisfy the production and living of rural residents,economic growth and social progress.The rural public goods is characterized by non-excludability,non-competitiveness and indispensability of other general public goods.The supply situation of Chinese government to rural public goods is analyzed,as well as the demand situation of rural public goods,which includes farmers' demand on training,the assistance demand of rural weak groups,farmers' demand on comfortable living conditions and farmers' demand on "soft" public goods.The paths for innovating the supply mechanism of rural public goods are put forward,which cover perfecting the decision mechanism of public goods supply;scientifically distributing the supply responsibility of rural public goods;facilitating the reform of each supporting equipment and exploring the multiple capital collecting channels of rural public goods.

Characteristic analysis and forecast of electricity supply and demand in APEC

The Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation(APEC)comprises of the world’s largest producers and consumers of energy,accounting for 60.3%of primary energy supply,50.0%of final energy consumption,and 63.0%of electricity generation worldwide in 2016.This study discusses the primary energy supply and final energy consumption situation of the APEC and analyzes the characteristics of electricity in terms of its generation structure based on fuel,consumption by the end-use sector,access to electricity,and so on.The renewable energy and electricity generation projections up to 2030 based on trends in the APEC are also assessed.It is seen that electricity in final energy consumption has been on an upward trend,with an average annual growth rate of about 4.8%during 2006–2016,in 2016,its share reached 24.3%.The industry sector consumes the largest share of electricity,accounting for about 45.5%in 2016.Coal supply and consumption peaked in 2011 and then began to decline,while renewable energy has been on an upward trend,with its primary energy supply share increasing from 4.80%in 2010 to 6.29%in 2016.Solar photovoltaic and onshore wind power are on the verge of costing less than the operating cost of existing coal-fired plants in 2018.In the APEC’s target scenario in which renewable energy is doubled,the predicted net growth from 2017 to 2030 of solar,wind,and hydro power is about 963,497,and 157 GW,respectively,and to reach this target,the APEC economies need to accelerate renewable energy development.

Analysis on the Situation of Power Supply and Demand in Shandong

In the first half of 2007, the power industry in Shandongprovince continued to maintain a rapid growth momentum.The gross electricity consumption amounted to 121.25 TWh,14.4% higher over that in the same period of last year. The totalinstalled capacity reached 53.29 GW. It was expected that bythe end of 2007, the gross electricity consumption in Shan-dong would reach 260 TWh, increasing by 14.4% on ayear-on-year basis; the maximum load would reach 40.

Development and Utilization of the World＇s and China＇s Bulk Mineral Resources and their Supply and Demand Situation in the Next Twenty Years

Bulk mineral resources of iron ores, copper ores, bauxite, lead ores, zinc ores and potassium salt play a pivotal role on the world＇s and China＇s economic development. This study analyzed and predicted their resources base and potential, development and utilization and their world＇s and China＇s supply and demand situation in the future 20 years. The supply and demand of these six bulk mineral products are generally balanced, with a slight surplus, which will guarantee the stability of the international mineral commodity market supply. The six mineral resources （especially iron ores and copper ores） are abundant and have a great potential, and their development and utilization scale will gradually increase. Till the end of 2014, the reserve- production ratio of iron, copper, bauxite, lead, zinc ores and potassium salt was 95 years, 42 years, 100 years, 17 years, 37 years and 170 years, respectively. Except lead ores, the other five types all have reserve-production ratio exceeding 20 years, indicative of a high resources guarantee degree. If the utilization of recycled metals is counted in, the supply of the world＇s six mineral products will exceed the demand in the future twenty years. In 2015-2035, the supply of iron ores, refined copper, primary aluminum, refined lead, zinc and potassium salt will exceed their demand by 0.4-0.7 billion tons （Gt）, 5.0-6.0 million tons （Mt）, 1.1-8.9 Mt, 1.0-2.0 Mt, 1.2-2.0 Mt and 4.8-5.6 Mt, respectively. It is predicted that there is no problem with the supply side of bulk mineral products such as iron ores, but local or structural shortage may occur because of geopolitics, monopoly control, resources nationalism and trade friction. Affected by China＇s compressed industrialized development model, the demand of iron ores （crude steel）, potassium salt, refined lead, refined copper, bauxite （primary aluminum） and zinc will gradually reach their peak in advance. The demand peak of iron ores （crude steel） will reach around 2015, 2016 for potassium salt, 2020 for refined lead, 2021 for bauxite （primary aluminum）, 2022 for refined copper and 2023 for zinc. China＇s demand for iron ores （crude steel）, bauxite （primary aluminum） and zinc in the future 20 years will decline among the world＇s demand, while that for refined copper, refined lead and potassium salt will slightly increase. The demand for bulk mineral products still remains high. In 2015-2035, China＇s accumulative demand for iron ores （crude steel） will be 20.313 Gt （13.429 Gt）, 0.304 Gt for refined copper, 2.466 Gt （0.616 Gt） of bauxite （primary aluminum）, 0.102 Gt of refined lead, 0.138 Gt of zinc and 0.157 Gt of potassium salt, and they account for the world＇s YOY （YOY） accumulative demand of 35.17%, 51.09%, 48.47%, 46.62%, 43.95% and 21.84%, respectively. This proportion is 49.40%, 102.52%, 87.44%, 105.65%, 93.62% and 106.49% of that in 2014, respectively. From the supply side of China＇s bulk mineral resources, it is forecasted that the accumulative supply of primary （mine） mineral products in 2015-2035 is 4.046 Gt of iron ores, 0.591 Gt of copper, 1.129 Gt of bauxite, 63.661 Mt of （mine） lead, 0.109 Gt of （mine） zinc and 0.128 Gt of potassium salt, which accounts for 8.82%, 13.92%, 26.67%, 47.09%, 33.04% and 15.56% of the world＇s predicted YOY production, respectively. With the rapid increase in the smelting capacity of iron and steel and alumina, the rate of capacity utilization for crude steel, refined copper, alumina, primary aluminum and refined lead in 2014 was 72.13%, 83.63%, 74.45%, 70.76% and 72.22%, respectively. During 2000-2014, the rate of capacity utilization for China＇s crude steel and refined copper showed a generally fluctuating decrease, which leads to an insufficient supply of primary mineral products. It is forecasted that the supply insufficiency of iron ores in 2015-2035 is 17.44 Gt, 0.245 Gt of copper in copper concentrates, 1.337 Gt of bauxite, 38.44 Mt of lead in lead concentrates and 29.19 Mt of zinc in zinc concentrates. China has gradually raised the utilization of recycled metals, which has mitigated the insufficient supply of primary metal products to some extent. It is forecasted that in 2015-2035 the accumulative utilization amount of steel scrap （iron ores） is 3.27 Gt （5.08 Gt）, 70.312 Mt of recycled copper, 0.2 Gt of recycled aluminum, 48 Mt of recycled lead and 7.7 Mt of recycled zinc. The analysis on the supply and demand situation of China＇s bulk mineral resources in 2015-2035 suggests that the supply-demand contradiction for these six types of mineral products will decrease, indicative of a generally declining external dependency. If the use of recycled metal amount is counted in, the external dependency of China＇s iron, copper, bauxite, lead, zinc and potassium salt will be 79%, 65%, 26%, 8%, 16% and 18% in 2014, respectively. It is predicted that this external dependency will decrease to 62%, 64%, 20%, -0.93%, 16% and 14% in 2020, respectively, showing an overall decreasing trend. We propose the following suggestions correspondingly. （1） The demand peak of China＇s crude steel and potassium salt will reach during 2015-2023 in succession. Mining transformation should be planned and deployed in advance to deal with the arrival of this demand peak. （2） The supply-demand contradiction of China＇s bulk mineral resources will mitigate in the future 20 years, and the external dependency will decrease accordingly. It is suggested to adjust the mineral resources management policies according to different minerals and regions, and regulate the exploration and development activities. （3） China should further establish and improve the forced mechanism of resolving the smelting overcapacity of steel, refined copper, primary aluminum, lead and zinc to really achieve the goal of ＂reducing excess production capacity＂. （4） In accordance with the national strategic deployment of ＂One Belt One Road＂, China should encourage the excess capacity of steel, copper, alumina and primary aluminum enterprises to transfer to those countries or areas with abundant resources, high energy matching degree and relatively excellent infrastructure. Based on the national conditions, mining condition and geopolitics of the resources countries, we will gradually build steel, copper, aluminum and lead-zinc smelting bases, and potash processing and production bases, which will promote the excess capacity to transfer to the overseas orderly. （5） It is proposed to strengthen the planning and management of renewable resources recycling and to construct industrial base of renewable metal recycling. （6） China should promote the comprehensive development and utilization of paragenetic and associated mineral species to further improve the comprehensive utilization of bulk mineral resources.

An improved modal pushover analysis procedure for estimating seismic demands of structures

The pushover analysis （POA） procedure is difficult to apply to high-rise buildings, as it cannot account for the contributions of higher modes. To overcome this limitation, a modal pushover analysis （MPA） procedure was proposed by Chopra et al. （2001）. However, invariable lateral force distributions are still adopted in the MPA. In this paper, an improved MPA procedure is presented to estimate the seismic demands of structures, considering the redistribution of inertia forces after the structure yields. This improved procedure is verified with numerical examples of 5-, 9- and 22-story buildings. It is concluded that the improved MPA procedure is more accurate than either the POA procedure or MPA procedure. In addition, the proposed procedure avoids a large computational effort by adopting a two-phase lateral force distribution..

Oil and Gas Supply and Demand in China and Its Development Strategy

The paper makes a comprehensive prediction of China＇s future demand for oil and gas with two methods, i.e. the prediction method based on the demand for individual oil and gas products and the method for predicting the total demand. According to the demand prediction of, and the historical data on, the oil and gas consumption, we conduct an analysis of the oil and gas consumption trends, which can be described as six different development periods. On the other hand, the paper makes a comprehensive analysis of the domestic oil and gas resources and, on this basis, makes a basic prediction of the domestic output of oil and gas. The supply and demand situation is also analyzed. By using the SWOT analysis method, the paper puts forward the development strategies for China＇s oil and gas industry and gives some related strategic measures.

Risk Analysis and Solution Recommendations on Uranium Supply forNuclear Power in China

The Chinese government has set ambitious goals for the development of nuclear power, which is under the risks from uranium supply shortage. The supply and demand of uranium resources both domestically and abroad is firstly analyzed in the paper. The supply can still meet the demand in the short run, but the risk of shortage may exist in the long run. Moreover, the lack oJuranium resources will exist globally no matter at present or in the future. ThereJore, the main.factor restraining the nuclear power development in China is the short supply of uranium. Finally, recommendations are put Jorward such as strengthening the exploration and production of domestic uranium, cooperating with foreign enterprises in the exploration of uraniam mines, building the reserves, and proactively developing the fourth generation of nuclear power technology and so on.

Decision Making for Capacity Expansion of Water Supply Systems

This study developed a systematic decision-making process for water supply capacity expansion using the analytic hierarchy process. The decision-making criteria were categorized into environmental, economic, technical and socio-cultural aspects. Capacity expansion of three water resources (Kpong, Weija and Teshie plants) of Accra-Tema Metropolitan Area (Ghana) was studied as a test case. The research resulted in the environmental criterion with the highest priority weight (52.4%), followed by the economic (30.6%), technical (11.3%) and socio-cultural criteria (5.8%). The overall analysis ranked the Kpong plant with a score of 36.1% followed by the Weija and Teshie plants with scores 33.8% and 30.2%, respectively.

Supply Chain Demand Forecast Based on SSA-XGBoost Model

Supply chain management usually faces problems such as high empty rate of transportation, unreasonable inventory management, and large material consumption caused by inaccurate market demand forecasts. To solve these problems, using artificial intelligence and big data technology to achieve market demand forecasting and intelligent decision-making is becoming a strategic technology trend of supply chain management in the future. Firstly, this paper makes a visual analysis of the historical data of the Stock Keeping Unit (SKU);Then, the characteristic factors affecting the future demand are constructed from the storage level, product level, historical usage of SKU, etc;Finally, a supply chain demand forecasting algorithm based on SSA-XGBoost model has proposed around three aspects of feature engineering, parameter optimization and model integration, and is compared with other machine learning models. The experiment shows that the forecasting result of SSA-XGBoost forecasting model is highly consistent with the actual value, so it is of practical significance to adopt this forecasting model to solve the supply chain demand forecasting problem.

China's Excess Oil Refining Production Capacity in the Background of the Supply Side Structural Reform

Through analysis of the current situation and newly-increased production capacity-of the oil refining industry of China, this Paper discusses both the continuous expansion trend and the serious excess of production capacity of the oil refining industry of China. Due to the entry of the Chinese economy into the new normal,the accelerated substitution of old energy by new energy and rigid restrictions composed of low carbon and environmental protection requirements, the oil demand of China will continue to increase overall, but the growth will obviously slow down. At the same time, the newly-increased production capacity in Shandong and coastal region will continuously expand, the supply and demand contradiction will intensify, and the structural excess production capacity of the oil refining industry of China will be prominent. It is suggested that the government should attach great importance to the production capacity of the oil refining industry at the macro level, and deeply carry forward the supply side structural reform, and that enterprises should speed up technical innovation,enhance regional and layout optimization, adapt to market changes and adjust product structure, control oil refining but increase chemical engineering, improve product quality and production efficiency, and constantly promote the international competitiveness of the Chinese petrochemical industry.

RESEARCH ON MUNICIPAL WATER DEMANDS FORECAST

Based on the changing law of municipal water demand,a trigonometric function model for short-term water demand forecast is established using the time-series analysis approach.The method for forecasting water demand during holidays and under unexpected events is also presented.Meanwhile,a computer software is developed.Through actual application,this method performs well and has high accuracy,so it can be applied to the daily operation of a water distribution system and lay a foundation for on-line optimal operation.

Carbon neutrality policy and interconnection scenario according to the perspective of Republic of Korea

The future energy policy,long-term energy supply plan,and necessity of power system interconnection are discussed considering the climate change agreement and national carbon neutrality policy.Although several studies have been conducted on power system interconnection related projects,a few reviews have been performed related to the Greenhouse Gas Convention in North-East Asian(NEA)regions.Therefore,the future directions and possible scenarios on power system interconnection are studied by combining the issues by comprehensively considering carbon neutrality policy according to the perspective of Korea.

Energy substitution game under the supply capacity restriction

Along with Chinese economic growth,energy plays a more and more important role in the national economy.The imbalance between insufficient energy supply and huge energy demand has become a major problem in energy utilization,and energy substitution is attracting more and more attention as a key to the sustainable and sound development of Chinese economy.Explored the possibilities of the mutual substitution of the two types of energy with different functions with game theory in light of the supply capacity.As a con- clusion,there are four equilibrium results corresponding to different levels of supply capac- ity.Subsequently,we carry on the study further by numerical simulation,investigate in one group of results most close to Chinese energy status and find the equilibrium price as well as the demand variation pattern.

Critical Factors in Managing Relationally Demanding Jobs, in Care for Very Ill and/or Dying Patients: A Phenomenological Study among Public Hospital Nurses

Background: Workload, interpersonal relationships, professional conflict and the emotional cost of providing care are potential sources of stress and burnout among nurses. Based on experiences of hospital nurses, this paper aims to identify critical factors for nurses in managing relationally demanding situations in care for very ill and/or dying patients. Methods: In-depth interviews were carried out with six nurses, working in a medium-sized hospital in Norway. The interviews were analysed using an interpretative phenomenological analysis. Results: The lack of identification with the core aspect of the job, relational contact with patients and relatives, and external motivation were found as potential barriers for managing relationally demanding jobs. The results also indicate that the nurses’ experiences of symptoms of burnout can be a result of demands that exceeded the nurses’ resources. A match between personal capacity and demands, mutual support among colleagues and leadership support, and contextual factors are critical to prevent the negative process of burnout. Conclusion: The results underscore the importance of an early response to employees who are beginning to struggle at work and the relevance of a true match between personal capacity and job demands. Moreover support among colleagues and leadership seems critical to prevent a negative process of burnout and help to manage relationally demanding jobs.

Regulating Aspects and Geologic Solutions of the Natural Gas Building Capacities to a Gas Market Model in Albania

Caspian Gas into Balkans over medium to long term becames Albanian case on June 2013 when TAP route was selected. After Albanian National Territory Council approved TAP AG＇s Compound Development Permit, the project should start Construction Phase 1. Existing gas pipeline connections of Albania within the European network via TAP, is highly estimated by energy authorities in both technical and regulating aspects. New pipelines are projected to be build in order to meet local energy consume and seasonal fluctuations, as well as needs of Kosovo and FYROM. Some of important points： determination on the capacity sector building for a due Albanian Gas Market Model, supply options on the future gasification, alternatives of opening underground gas storages in the salt domes of Dumre region and extending pipelines to neighboring countries. By assistance of the Secretariat of Energy Community, MEI starts drafting the new gas law to meet Third Energy Package. TAP project, IAP project, Albania-Kosovo Pipeline, an LNG plant and terminals coastal construction, can contribute on the diversification of gas supply. Underground Gas Storage potentials are geologic solution target, considering the Upper Miocene depleted sandstone gas fields of Divjaka, as well as the Dumre evaporitic deposits diapir of the Upper Triassic.

智慧健康养老产业的现实需求与发展进路

智慧健康养老产业高质量发展是深入实施健康中国战略和积极应对人口老龄化国家战略的重要内容。基于智慧健康养老产业的供需分析框架,分析智慧健康养老产业的现实需求、供给现状,发现智慧健康养老产业供给不平衡、不充分,产业链环节衔接不当,智慧健康养老产品的数字鸿沟难以跨越,智慧健康养老服务的专业人才匮乏,政府和市场的协同合作机制不健全等。据此提出以需定供,提升产业供给质量;整合优势,构建稳定高效产业链;智享养老,推进数字无障碍建设;人才为本,夯实高素质专业队伍;协同发力,推动有效市场和有为政府更好结合等。

中国式产能过剩:历史考察及对新发展阶段治理的启示

改革开放以来,我国经历了四轮较为明显的产能过剩:20世纪90年代的消费品过剩阶段、2003—2007年的部分工业品过剩阶段、2011—2015年的产能过剩全面加剧阶段、2016—2020年的重点行业治理取得阶段性成果阶段,各阶段产能过剩的背景、表现、治理措施及效果不尽相同。历史考察发现,中国式产能过剩具有以下特征:产能过剩跟经济波动密切关联、产能过剩问题反复出现、产能过剩与落后产能问题并存、产能过剩形成机制深刻复杂。在新发展阶段,治理产能过剩问题既要推动存量过剩产能退出,更要从根本上构建预防过剩产能反复的长效机制,建议重点关注以下工作:完善市场化法治化机制,构建过剩产能高效退出机制;推动政府治理机制改革,探索政府与市场结合新模式;加快科技自主创新,推动供需结构匹配;加快构建“管资本”国有资产监管体制,重点推动国有企业产能利用率提升。

国家图书馆文旅融合服务供需分析研究:19个图书馆的实践解析

以19个国家图书馆为研究对象,采用网络调查法、案例分析法和文献研究法,梳理国家图书馆文旅融合服务供需两端相关理论并提炼分析框架,基于框架归纳阐释四大实践特点并提出经验启示。国家图书馆文旅融合服务实践呈现国家典籍珍藏及展示、以人文吸引力为核心、用户导向的文旅服务、开放包容的文旅服务的特点。我国其他图书馆应充分借鉴国家图书馆文旅融合服务实践经验,强化馆藏资源质量基础支撑,以人文吸引力为重点发展方向,推动文旅融合服务全覆盖、个性化并营造开放包容服务环境。