The European Commission has proposed a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism(CBAM)to reduce carbon leakage and create a level playing field for its domestic products and imported goods.Nevertheless,the effectiveness of t...The European Commission has proposed a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism(CBAM)to reduce carbon leakage and create a level playing field for its domestic products and imported goods.Nevertheless,the effectiveness of the proposal remains unclear,especially when it triggers threats of retaliation from trading partners of the European Union.We apply a Computable General Equilibrium model-Global Trade Analysis Project-to assess the economic and environmental impacts of different CBAM schemes.Here we show that the effectiveness of the CBAM to address carbon leakage risks is rather limited,and the CBAM raises concerns over global welfare costs,Correct to Gross Domestic Product(GDP)losses,and violation of equality principles.Trade retaliation leads to multiplied welfare losses,which would mostly be borne by poor countries.Our results question the carbon leakage reduction effect of a unilateral trade policy and suggest that climate change mitigation still needs to be performed within the framework of international cooperation.展开更多
Due to concerns about carbon leakage and sectoral competitiveness,the European Union(EU)proposed implementing the carbon border adjustment mechanism(CBAM).The effectiveness and potential negative consequences of CBAM ...Due to concerns about carbon leakage and sectoral competitiveness,the European Union(EU)proposed implementing the carbon border adjustment mechanism(CBAM).The effectiveness and potential negative consequences of CBAM have aroused extensive discussion.From the perspective of the economy-wide analysis,this study uses a global computable general equilibrium model to explore the rationality of CBAM from the aspects of socioeconomic impact and the effects of promoting climate mitigation.Furthermore,the potential alternative mechanism of CBAM is proposed.The results show that CBAM can reduce the EU's gross domestic product(GDP)loss;however,the GDP loss in all other regions increases.Moreover,CBAM raises household welfare losses in most regions,including the EU.Second,although CBAM can reduce the marginal abatement cost in eight regions,it comes at the cost of greater economic losses.Furthermore,the economic and household welfare cost of raising emissions reduction targets in regions like the USA and Japan is substantially higher than the impact of passively accepting the CBAM;therefore,CBAM's ability to drive ambitious emission reduction initiatives may be limited.Finally,for the potential alternative mechanism,from the perspective of reducing economic cost and household welfare losses,the EU could implement domestic tax cuts in the short-term and promote global unified carbon pricing in the long-term.展开更多
The European Union(EU)is developing the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism(CBAM)to address carbon leakage in international trade.However,the EU has paid inadequate attention to input-output linkages,specifically those...The European Union(EU)is developing the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism(CBAM)to address carbon leakage in international trade.However,the EU has paid inadequate attention to input-output linkages,specifically those in the steel,aluminum,and fertiliser industries.This study aims to identify priority sectors eligible for initial regulation within the emissions-intensive trade-exposed(EITE)industries based on input-output linkages and compare its impacts with the current CBAM sector coverage.This study constructs a Global Production Network(GPN)and Carbon Flow Network(CFN)to present the input trade and embodied carbon flows for the EITE industries.This study highlights the role of the EITE industries as influential nodes in the production network and how the EITE industries in the EU contribute to carbon emissions.To improve the economy and political acceptability,CABM should cover four priority sectors with low economic impacts but a crucial role in reducing emissions,such as plastics,phosphorus fertiliser,aluminum,and copper industry.展开更多
为系统梳理碳关税领域研究特征、研究热点与演进,弥补欧盟碳边境调节机制正式实施背景下该领域文献综述的空缺,使用CiteSpace可视化分析软件从中国知网(CNKI)和Web of Science核心合集中筛选1998−2023年碳关税领域文献进行计量分析。结...为系统梳理碳关税领域研究特征、研究热点与演进,弥补欧盟碳边境调节机制正式实施背景下该领域文献综述的空缺,使用CiteSpace可视化分析软件从中国知网(CNKI)和Web of Science核心合集中筛选1998−2023年碳关税领域文献进行计量分析。结果表明:①探讨的主要内容包括碳关税的属性与实质、合法性与可行性、经济与环境影响和应对措施,呈现学科交叉的特点,不同研究者从各自的立场出发做出了差异化评价与论述,但使用的主要方法相对一致,包括可计算一般均衡模型、全球贸易分析模型和博弈分析。②该领域受到了官方政府和权威期刊的较高关注,机构间研究合作较为频繁,而国家间合作总体较少,国内研究的影响力较弱。③碳关税领域的发展演变分为萌芽、波动和复兴三个阶段。④领域内热点更迭较快,其中,碳边境调节机制突现强度最高,是整个学科知识转化与焦点转移的重要桥梁;碳中和、世贸组织规则和欧洲绿色新政等关键词是当前研究的前沿热点。后续研究可从关注政策最新设计和国际谈判动态、聚焦发展中国家利益和公平正义指标、以全球化视角综合考虑碳关税政策多维度影响以及从微观层面研究企业行为反应机制、加强国际合作与交流、创新多元化研究方法等方面展开。展开更多
基金supported by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council(EP/V041665/1)the British Council(2019-RLWK11-10577)。
文摘The European Commission has proposed a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism(CBAM)to reduce carbon leakage and create a level playing field for its domestic products and imported goods.Nevertheless,the effectiveness of the proposal remains unclear,especially when it triggers threats of retaliation from trading partners of the European Union.We apply a Computable General Equilibrium model-Global Trade Analysis Project-to assess the economic and environmental impacts of different CBAM schemes.Here we show that the effectiveness of the CBAM to address carbon leakage risks is rather limited,and the CBAM raises concerns over global welfare costs,Correct to Gross Domestic Product(GDP)losses,and violation of equality principles.Trade retaliation leads to multiplied welfare losses,which would mostly be borne by poor countries.Our results question the carbon leakage reduction effect of a unilateral trade policy and suggest that climate change mitigation still needs to be performed within the framework of international cooperation.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(72293605,72293600,72204013,72074022)R&D Program of Beijing Municipal Education Commission(SM202310005005)China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(2021M700314,2023T160035).
文摘Due to concerns about carbon leakage and sectoral competitiveness,the European Union(EU)proposed implementing the carbon border adjustment mechanism(CBAM).The effectiveness and potential negative consequences of CBAM have aroused extensive discussion.From the perspective of the economy-wide analysis,this study uses a global computable general equilibrium model to explore the rationality of CBAM from the aspects of socioeconomic impact and the effects of promoting climate mitigation.Furthermore,the potential alternative mechanism of CBAM is proposed.The results show that CBAM can reduce the EU's gross domestic product(GDP)loss;however,the GDP loss in all other regions increases.Moreover,CBAM raises household welfare losses in most regions,including the EU.Second,although CBAM can reduce the marginal abatement cost in eight regions,it comes at the cost of greater economic losses.Furthermore,the economic and household welfare cost of raising emissions reduction targets in regions like the USA and Japan is substantially higher than the impact of passively accepting the CBAM;therefore,CBAM's ability to drive ambitious emission reduction initiatives may be limited.Finally,for the potential alternative mechanism,from the perspective of reducing economic cost and household welfare losses,the EU could implement domestic tax cuts in the short-term and promote global unified carbon pricing in the long-term.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China Key Program (72133003)the Key Projects of Philosophy and Social Sciences Research,Ministry of Education (22JZD008).
文摘The European Union(EU)is developing the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism(CBAM)to address carbon leakage in international trade.However,the EU has paid inadequate attention to input-output linkages,specifically those in the steel,aluminum,and fertiliser industries.This study aims to identify priority sectors eligible for initial regulation within the emissions-intensive trade-exposed(EITE)industries based on input-output linkages and compare its impacts with the current CBAM sector coverage.This study constructs a Global Production Network(GPN)and Carbon Flow Network(CFN)to present the input trade and embodied carbon flows for the EITE industries.This study highlights the role of the EITE industries as influential nodes in the production network and how the EITE industries in the EU contribute to carbon emissions.To improve the economy and political acceptability,CABM should cover four priority sectors with low economic impacts but a crucial role in reducing emissions,such as plastics,phosphorus fertiliser,aluminum,and copper industry.
文摘为系统梳理碳关税领域研究特征、研究热点与演进,弥补欧盟碳边境调节机制正式实施背景下该领域文献综述的空缺,使用CiteSpace可视化分析软件从中国知网(CNKI)和Web of Science核心合集中筛选1998−2023年碳关税领域文献进行计量分析。结果表明:①探讨的主要内容包括碳关税的属性与实质、合法性与可行性、经济与环境影响和应对措施,呈现学科交叉的特点,不同研究者从各自的立场出发做出了差异化评价与论述,但使用的主要方法相对一致,包括可计算一般均衡模型、全球贸易分析模型和博弈分析。②该领域受到了官方政府和权威期刊的较高关注,机构间研究合作较为频繁,而国家间合作总体较少,国内研究的影响力较弱。③碳关税领域的发展演变分为萌芽、波动和复兴三个阶段。④领域内热点更迭较快,其中,碳边境调节机制突现强度最高,是整个学科知识转化与焦点转移的重要桥梁;碳中和、世贸组织规则和欧洲绿色新政等关键词是当前研究的前沿热点。后续研究可从关注政策最新设计和国际谈判动态、聚焦发展中国家利益和公平正义指标、以全球化视角综合考虑碳关税政策多维度影响以及从微观层面研究企业行为反应机制、加强国际合作与交流、创新多元化研究方法等方面展开。
