Carbon emission risk of construction industry in Hebei Province of China based on carbon sink thresholds

In order to assess the environmental risks caused by carbon emissions from the construction industry in Hebei Province of China,an environmental risk assessment model based on forest carbon sink threshold was constructed to evaluate the carbon emission risks of the construction industry in Hebei Province,China from 2005 to 2020.The results are shown as follows:(1)The overall carbon emissions of the construction industry in Hebei Province of China showed an inverted"V"-shaped evolution trend during the past 16 years.Tangshan and Shijiazhuang maintained high carbon emissions,while Langfang,Hengshui and Baoding saw rapid increases in carbon emissions.(2)The environmental safety threshold of carbon emission from the construction industry in Hebei Province,China,has been continuously improved,and the provincial environmental safety threshold is between 9475080-23144760 tons;The environmental safety threshold was the highest in Baoding and Langfang,and the lowest in Xingtai.(3)In the past 16 years,the carbon emission risk of the construction industry in Hebei Province of China has been in a state of extremely serious risk,and the risk index generally presents an inverted"V"type trend.(4)The carbon emission risk of Hebei city in China presents a spatial pattern of"high in the south and low in the north",which goes through two stages:risk increase period and risk reduction period.

Daily rolling estimation of carbon emission cost of coal-fired units considering long-cycle interactive operation simulation of carbon-electricity market

The high overlap of participants in the carbon emissions trading and electricity markets couples the operations of the two markets.The carbon emission cost(CEC)of coal-fired units becomes part of the power generation cost through market coupling.The accuracy of CEC calculation affects the clearing capacity of coal-fired units in the electric power market.Study of carbon–electricity market interaction and CEC calculations is still in its initial stages.This study analyzes the impact of carbon emissions trading and compliance on the operation of the electric power market and defines the cost transmission mode between the carbon emissions trading and electric power markets.A long-period interactive operation simulation mechanism for the carbon–electricity market is established,and operation and trading models of the carbon emissions trading market and electric power market are established.A daily rolling estimation method for the CEC of coal-fired units is proposed,along with the CEC per unit electric quantity of the coal-fired units.The feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method are verified through an example simulation,and the factors influencing the CEC are analyzed.

Factors affecting the pilot trading market of carbon emissions in China

Climate change and carbon emissions are major problems which are attracting worldwide attention. China has had its pilot carbon emission trading markets in seven regions for more than 3 years. What affects carbon emission trading market in China is a big question. More attention is paid to how China promotes the carbon emission trading schemes in the whole country. This paper addresses concerns about the functioning of carbon emission trading schemes in seven pilot regions and takes the weekly data from November 25, 2013, to March 19, 2017. We employ a vector autoregressive model to study how coal price, oil price and stock index have affected the carbon price in China. The results indicate that carbon price is mainly affected by its own historical price; coal price and stock index have negative effects on carbon price, while oil price has a negative effect on carbon price during the first 3 weeks and then has a positive effect on carbon price. More regulatory attention and economic measures are needed to improve market efficiency, and the mechanisms of carbon emission trading schemes should be improved.

Study on China's Carbon Emission Trading Market Development under the Globalization

This paper starts by describing China's carbon emissions trading market development history, reveals the existence of its development problems, then, analyzes the experience of successful establishment of the European and American national carbon emissions trading market. At last, this paper recommends for a call of unified effort to improve domestic carbon emissions trading market system.

Carbon Emission Trading System of New Zealand and Its Enlightenment for China

The design characteristics and operation results of carbon emission trading system of New Zealand was introduced in this paper. The results suggested that taking forest carbon trade as the only one supplying source of greenhouse gas emission improved the foreseeability in forest maintenance,and strengthened the effect of forestation. According to this,the author suggested that carbon emission trading market in which forest carbon trade was the only one supplying source should be cultivated in China. A compensation mechanism that industry compensated forestry should be established. A social participated,highly united,coordinated and mutual intermediated carbon trading market should be built.

Study on carbon intensity trading market based on carbon finance mechanism

As the largest developing country in the world, China has not be involved in the obligation of emissions reduction in the （〈Kyoto Protocol）） . But it has become the largest CO2 emissions countries in the world. This makes China confronted with more pressure of carbon emissions reduction in the post-Kyoto era, and face great challenges in response to climate change issues. On one hand, China＇ s economic growth stage has decided that the situation of more energy consumption and increased carbon emissions is diffficult to reverse in the short term; On the other hand, the traditional policy under the control of total amount of carbon emission has largely restricted economic development. If a developing country in economic transition is carried out compulsory absolute amount of carbon reduction policies, its economic activity and social consumption will be imposed additional constraints inevitably, which will eventually lead to lower economic competitiveness and decline in social standards of living. Ultimately it will affect the good effects of carbon emissions reduction, so the policy can not achieve a satisfactory result. This paper introduces the financial mechanism into the carbon market model, extends the time of model from one phase to multi-phase. And this paper tries to establish a cross-time carbon credits trade system, and the current strength of the traditional carbon emission market trade model is extended. The paper designs two type of option mechanism model--call options trade carbon emissions model and put options carbon emissions model. Models＇ results show that choosing options tool to extend our traditional carbon market model can bring following impacts on carbon market development： trade costs have fallen, the carbon intensity also has descended, and has realized the flow of carbon intensity in diffident time; it enables manufacturers to effectively avoid the risk of carbon emissions trade; it increases the flexibility and maneuverability of the carbon trade market. Finally, the policy recommendations in the financial mechanisms carbon market trade are put forward.

Inclusion of forestry offsets in emission trading schemes:insights from global experts

Emissions trading schemes(ETSs)have been a central component of international climate change policies,as a carbon pricing tool to achieve emissions reduction targets.Forest carbon offset credits have been leveraged in many ETSs to efficiently meet emission reduction targets,yet there is little knowledge about the perceptions,experiences,and challenges associated with the forest carbon offsetting in existing and pilot ETS.Given that the future inclusion of forest carbon offset in ETS management activities and policies will require strong support and acceptability among the institutions and experts involved in ETS,this study explores the experiences and lessons learned with 16 globally engaging experts representing major existing ETSs(North America,Europe,and New Zealand)and Chinese pilot ETSs towards the inclusion of forestry offsets,major concerns and challenges with existing implementation models.Findings revealed that many respondents particularly from North America,New Zealand,and Chinese pilot systems portrayed positive attitudes toward the inclusion of forestry carbon offsets and its role in contributing to a viable ETS,while European experts were not supportive.Respondents cited leakage,permanence,additionality,and monitoring design features as the major challenges and concerns that inhibit the expansion and inclusion of forest carbon offsetting.Respondents from Chinese pilot schemes referenced a unique set of challenges related to implementation,including the increasing cost of afforestation and reforestation projects,the uncertainty in the future supply and demand for their national Certified Emissions Reduction(CER)scheme and landowner engagement.Existing and future ETSs should learn from and address the challenges experienced by global experts and carbon pricing mechanisms to design,evaluate,or enhance their forest carbon offset programs for an effective and viable system that successfully contributes to GHG mitigation practices globally.We recommend inclusion of forest carbon offsets at the early stages of ETS improves the perceptions and experience of policy makers and practitioners toward the success and potential of forestry offsets in ETS ensuring familiarity and confidence in the mechanism.

Energy and economic impacts of an international multi-regional carbon market

The establishment of a global multi-regional carbon market is considered to be a cost effective approach to facilitate global emission abatement and has been widely concerned.The ongoing planned linkage between the European Union's carbon market and a new emission trading system in Australia in 2015 would be an important attempt to the practice of building up an international carbon market across different regions.To understand the abatement effect of such a global carbon market and to study its energy and economic impact on different market participants,this article adopts a global dynamic computable general equilibrium model with a detailed representation of the interactions between energy and economic systems.Our model includes 20 economic sectors and 19 regions,and describes in detail 17 energy technologies.Bundled with fossil fuel consumptions,the emission permits are considered to be essential inputs in each of the production and consumption activities in the economic system to simulate global carbon market policies.Carbon emission permits are endogenously set in the model,and can be traded between sectors and regions.Considering the current development of the global carbon market,this study takes 2020 as the study period.Four scenarios(reference scenario,independent carbon market scenario,Europe Union(EUh-Australia scenario,and China-EU-Australia scenario) are designed to evaluate the impact of the global carbon market involving China,the EU,and Australia.We find that the carbon price in the three countries varies a lot,from $32/tCO_2 in Australia,to $17.5/tCO_2 in the EU,and to $10/tCO_2 in China.Though the relative emission reduction(3%) in China is lower than that in the EU(9%) and Australia(18%),the absolute emission reduction in China is far greater than that in the EU and Australia.When China is included in the carbon market,which already includes the EU and Australia,the prevailing global carbon price falls from $22 per ton carbon dioxide(CO_2) to $12/tCO_2,due to the relatively lower abatement cost in China.Seventy-one percent of the EU's and eighty-one percent of Australia's domestic reduction burden would be transferred to China,increasing 0.03%of the EU's and 0.06%of Australia's welfare.The emission constraint improves the energy efficiency of China's industry sector by 1.4%,reduces coal consumption by3.3%,and increases clean energy by 3.5%.

For CO<SUB>2</SUB>Emission Trading in China, Can the Market Become a National One, Four Years after Creating Seven Local Markets?

In this paper, we assess the existing seven local pilot carbon emission trading schemes in China and analyse the factors determining whether China’s carbon market is successful in terms of handling substantial amounts of CO2 emissions rights, regulating the market and trading them at a reasonable price. The emission trading system is developing slowly in most of the participating provinces and cities. Prices tend to decline, while volumes trading slowly increase. The volatility is partially the result of regulation (the rights need to be renewed before a certain date) and partially due to government interventions in the market. Based on the assessment, recommendations are provided for China implementing a national carbon market, based on the experiences and lessons learnt from the seven local carbon emission trading schemes. Conditions for China to roll out the system and later improve the national emission trading scheme to replace the existing local emission trading schemes are formulated.

Linking China's emissions trading pilot schemes

All seven emissions trading pilots in China operate independently.One challenge facing most of them is the low inclusion thresholds for enterprises and the few total covered emissions,which negatively influences the effects of the emissions trading systems(ETSs).Some pilot sites,such as Guangdong,Hubei,Tianjin and Beijing,have indicated their willingness to link their schemes with others.ETS linking could expand scheme coverages and therefore help to reduce the overall costs of achieving the linked schemes' emissions control targets.Linking could also help to address the issues of carbon leakage and reduce price fluctuations.The potential benefits and feasibility of linking different pilot systems are analyzed in this article.The seven pilot regions are at different stages of social and economic development,with significant differences in total emissions and emissions structures as well as carbon abatement potentials and costs.Through linking,more-developed regions such as Beijing,Shanghai and Shenzhen,which are typically considered to face higher mitigation costs,will have the opportunity to achieve their emissions control targets by purchasing carbon units from less-developed regions,which will earn financial revenues from selling the units.To realize this win-win result,a series of policy and technical barriers at both the central government and pilot government levels needs to be overcome.Establishing a unified national emissions trading market would appear to be the ideal solution to these challenges,but it will take considerable time and will not be the short-term solution.In the absence of a unified national scheme,it is recommended that the central government encourage pilot schemes to link,that it develops corresponding national policies to support the linking efforts and that the pilot schemes that are intended to be linked coordinate on certain design elements.Based on the coordinating need,the major elements of an ETS can be divided into four categories:elements that need mutual recognition(cap setting and allowance allocation methods);elements that should be completely identical(compliance mechanisms,price containment measures,banking and borrowing rules,and offset mechanisms);technical elements that are preferably identical and easy to coordinate(MRV standards,technical registry standards);and elements that require no coordination(coverages and scopes).

零碳园区研究综述及展望

园区作为国民生产、生活的重要载体,提供了大量的能源生产活动和基础服务设施,同时也成为碳排放的重要源头。园区物理界限分明,生态系统独立,运营管理权明晰,使得园区成为践行碳中和的天然试验田。首先,介绍零碳园区的典型构成,并对其净零碳能力进行分析;其次,从物理层、信息层、平台层、应用层4个层面分析零碳园区发展形态,提出园区零碳操作系统的架构;然后,对零碳园区的关键技术进行分析,从园区碳排放核算技术、园区低碳经济体系、园区低碳管控技术3个方面对零碳园区的研究现状进行总结,同时分析现有研究的不足和未来研究方向;最后,提出零碳园区研究的挑战与展望。

试点碳排放权交易市场对中国工业低碳转型的作用机制研究

本文通过构建理论模型,探讨试点碳排放权交易市场影响中国工业低碳转型的作用机制,并从七个试点省份出发,选取2006—2021年的省级面板数据,运用多期双重差分法对试点碳排放权交易市场政策的环境经济效应进行分析。研究结果显示,试点碳排放权交易市场能够有效降低碳排放强度和提升工业低碳全要素生产率,从而促进中国工业的低碳转型。机制检验结果表明,试点碳排放权交易市场主要通过成本约束和结构升级途径促进工业低碳转型,而技术进步途径的作用尚未实质性显现。异质性分析结果表明,在经济发展水平和研发水平更高的地区,碳排放权交易政策对碳排放强度的降低和生产率的提升效果更加明显;而在外商投资水平更高的地区,碳排放权交易政策对低碳全要素生产率的提升效果更加明显。

不同碳减排政策交互影响下发电企业交易策略

在双碳目标和电力系统转型背景下,发电企业的交易策略会发生重要转变。基于可再生能源配额制的实施,综合考虑碳排放权市场和绿证市场,探究了发电企业参与电力市场的最优决策。首先搭建了在多政策情形下市场主体参与交易的市场架构,理清各市场中的供求关系。随后建立发电企业利润函数,以发电企业利润最大化为目标,并分别在非合作博弈和合作博弈两种情况下,建立发电企业的最优生产交易模型。最后通过算例分析检验该交易模型,为发电企业在多种政策影响下参加电力市场交易提供依据。

森林碳汇的碳资产价值评估方法

森林碳汇是实现碳中和的重要途径之一,如何评价其经济价值是重要的理论与现实问题。文章将碳资产价值理论引入森林碳汇领域,提出一种评估森林碳汇碳资产价值及分析其影响因素敏感性的方法,继而通过实例估计某森林碳汇项目碳资产价值的合理值,并对该项目碳资产价值的影响因素进行敏感性分析。研究表明:(1)森林碳汇具有较高的、可度量的碳资产价值;(2)碳资产理论能够为森林碳汇经济价值的评估和计量提供一种新的方法;(3)森林碳汇的经济价值主要取决于项目碳汇量和碳汇价格,与碳汇价格变动相比,项目碳汇量变动对森林碳汇碳资产价值具有更大的影响。

中国碳排放权交易机制与实践:基于微观企业股权资本成本的视角

碳排放权交易市场作为企业减排增效的重要机制,引发了资本市场投资者对企业碳排放问题的关注,进而可能影响投资者对企业的风险评估与价值判断。手工整理中国各试点碳市场的控排企业名录发现:碳排放权交易机制显著提升了控排企业的权益资本成本,主要机制为投资者碳风险关注,但该市场机制存在明显的效应边界。进一步发现,当碳市场的初始配额实施部分竞价拍卖和非履约主体交易更为活跃,产品市场竞争程度更高和企业所在城市空气污染更为严重,以及企业非财务绩效表现更好时,碳排放权交易机制对企业权益资本成本的提升作用更为明显。研究结论有助于更为全面的评估我国碳市场建设的经济后果,为该低碳环保政策的持续推广提供理论依据与经验参考。

我国碳排放权交易市场对企业碳减排的效应与机制研究

碳排放权交易市场是我国政府激励企业碳减排、实现绿色低碳发展的重要环境规制工具。本文基于2008—2021年中国沪深两市A股上市企业的面板数据,从企业视角研究碳排放权交易市场对碳减排的影响及传导机制。研究表明:(1)碳排放权交易市场对企业碳减排有显著的促进作用;(2)在机制检验层面,绿色技术创新和企业碳信息披露在碳排放权交易市场对企业碳减排影响中发挥了中介作用,政府的参与加强了碳排放权交易市场对企业碳减的促进作用;(3)异质性分析发现:碳排放权交易市场的实施对非国有企业的碳减排效果强于国有企业,相比于非高耗能行业,碳排放权交易市场的实施对促进高耗能行业碳减排效果更加明显。本文不仅为全国碳排放权交易市场建设提供理论参考,也为促进企业绿色低碳转型、推进碳达峰碳中和提供了政策智力支撑。

城市绿地碳汇核算和监测研究进展

城市绿地在城市绿色低碳循环发展过程中具有重要作用,准确评估城市绿地碳汇能力是推进城市“碳达峰、碳中和”的一项关键工作。在阐述城市绿地碳汇概念的基础上,从城市绿地碳储量变化和碳排放2个方面梳理了城市绿地碳汇计量的核算方法及应用现状,提出了针对不同尺度、不同管理模式的城市绿地碳汇监测体系构建思路。在此基础上,从城市绿地基线碳汇量、泄漏量等方面阐明了城市绿地碳汇项目减排量的计量方法。研究结果可为提高城市绿地碳汇评估的准确性,推动面向“碳中和”的城市绿地建设提供思路和方法。

考虑绿证和碳排放权交易的电力市场协同减碳效应与仿真

为解决电力行业降碳问题,同时考虑绿证和碳排放权交易机制,对两种交易机制的协同降碳效果进行定量分析,建立以各厂商利润最大化为目标的双层博弈模型,分析可再生能源配额比例和碳减排率对厂商决策行为的影响。针对免费碳配额的分配提出一种新的碳配额核定策略,并利用Karush-Kuhn-Tucker(KKT)条件将双层模型转化为单层模型进行求解。研究结果表明:新的碳配额核定策略既可以促进可再生能源发展,抑制煤电增长,又可以减少碳排放,助力“双碳”目标实现。该研究为各厂商联动及通过优化配置资源结构推动能源转型提供了参考。

用能权市场和碳市场协同下火电企业配额履约策略

火电企业在用能权市场和碳市场中面临着独立配额约束,为降低履约难度、提升减排效率,对两市场协同下火电企业配额履约策略进行了研究.分析两市场的相互影响,从交易主体、配额分配、互认抵消等方面梳理市场间协同机理;构建火电企业履行双市场配额责任的系统动力学模型,探讨双重配额约束对企业的影响;对比分析无协同机制、允许配额互认和限制抵消比例3种政策情景下企业的履约策略.结果表明,双重配额约束加大了企业履约成本,未能提升其自主减排意愿,进一步建立配额互认的协同机制后,企业能够在履行义务的同时优化自身经济效益,但会引起两市场发展不平衡问题,为解决这一困境,互认比率应处于2~3.5之间,且需进一步设计抵消限制机制,确保企业按时履约和市场均衡发展,实现资源配置最优化.

电碳绿证交易耦合下新能源发电商参与投标竞争的多市场博弈分析

引入碳市场和绿证市场有助于通过市场机制提高新能源的市场竞争力,进而促进新能源发展和实现电力行业低碳运行。在电力、碳和绿证交易耦合的多市场环境下,如何研究新能源发电商的策略性竞争行为及其影响是一个重要的理论课题。为此,该文建立了一个计入新能源出力不确定性且考虑电-碳-绿证交易耦合的多市场博弈均衡模型,其中考虑了新能源发电商和传统发电商在电-碳-绿证3个市场中的博弈行为,并引入偏差惩罚机制对新能源发电商的投标偏差进行处理,采用非线性互补方法求得该均衡模型的解。最后,通过算例仿真验证了所提理论模型的合理性和有效性,结果表明:与单独引入碳市场或绿证市场相比,同时引入碳市场和绿证市场更能增强新能源的市场竞争力,降低碳排放量。