Carbon emission trading system and stock price crash risk of heavily polluting listed companies in China:based on analyst coverage mechanism

This study reveals the inconsistencies between the negative externalities of carbon emissions and the recognition condition of accounting statements.Hence,the study identifies that heavily polluting enterprises in China have severe off-balance sheet carbon reduction risks before implementing the carbon emission trading system(CETS).Through the staggered difference-in-difference(DID)model and the propen-sity score matching-DID model,the impact of CETS on reducing the risk of stock price crashes is examined using data from China’s A-share heavily polluting listed companies from 2007 to 2019.The results of this study are as follows:(1)CETS can significantly reduce the risk of stock price crashes for heavily polluting companies in the pilot areas.Specifically,CETS reduces the skewness(negative conditional skewness)and down-to-up volatility of the firm-specific weekly returns by 8.7%and 7.6%,respectively.(2)Heterogeneity analysis further shows that the impacts of CETS on the risk of stock price crashes are more significant for heavily polluting enterprises with the bear market condition,short-sighted management,and intensive air pollution.(3)Mechanism tests show that CETS can reduce analysts’coverage of heavy polluters,reducing the risk of stock price crashes.This study reveals the role of CETS from the stock price crash risk perspective and helps to clarify the relationship between climatic risk and corporate financial risk.

Carbon emission reduction effect and mechanism test of carbon emission trading pilot

Carbon emission trading pilot policies were launched in seven provinces and cities,including Beijing,Shanghai,Tianjin and Chongqing in 2013.Carbon emission trading is of great significance to the development of green economy.Taking China’s carbon emission trading pilot as a natural experiment,the dual difference method was used to explore the carbon emission reduction effect of the pilot carbon emission trading policy on the pilot areas in China based on the panel data of 30 provinces,autonomous regions and municipalities in China from 2000 to 2019.Propensity score matching,parallel trend test and placebo test were conducted to improve the robustness of the empirical results.It is found that carbon emission trading pilot policies significantly promote carbon emission reduction in pilot areas compared with non-pilot areas.This conclusion from the benchmark regression passed the robustness test,and the carbon reduction effect showed an increasing trend year by year.With the mediation effect test,the carbon emission reduction mechanism of the pilot policy was studied.The results show that the carbon trading pilot policy reduces the carbon dioxide emission in the pilot area by promoting the upgrading of industrial structure and technological progress.

Carbon emission trading system of China： a linked market vs. separated markets

The Chinese government intends to upgrade its current provincial carbon emission trading pilots to a nationwide scheme by 2015. This study investigates two of scenarios： separated provincial markets and a linked inter- provincial market. The carbon abatement effects of separated and linked markets are compared using two pilot provinces of Hubei and Guangdong based on a computable general equilibrium model termed Sino- TERMCo2. Simulation results show that the linked market can improve social welfare and reduce carbon emission intensity for the nation as well as for the Hubei-Guangdong bloc compared to the separated market. However, the combined system also distributes welfare more unevenly and thus increases social inequity. On the policy ground, the current results suggest that a well-constructed, nation- wide carbon market complemented with adequate welfare transfer policies can be employed to replace the current top-down abatement target disaggregation practice.

Daily rolling estimation of carbon emission cost of coal-fired units considering long-cycle interactive operation simulation of carbon-electricity market

The high overlap of participants in the carbon emissions trading and electricity markets couples the operations of the two markets.The carbon emission cost(CEC)of coal-fired units becomes part of the power generation cost through market coupling.The accuracy of CEC calculation affects the clearing capacity of coal-fired units in the electric power market.Study of carbon–electricity market interaction and CEC calculations is still in its initial stages.This study analyzes the impact of carbon emissions trading and compliance on the operation of the electric power market and defines the cost transmission mode between the carbon emissions trading and electric power markets.A long-period interactive operation simulation mechanism for the carbon–electricity market is established,and operation and trading models of the carbon emissions trading market and electric power market are established.A daily rolling estimation method for the CEC of coal-fired units is proposed,along with the CEC per unit electric quantity of the coal-fired units.The feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method are verified through an example simulation,and the factors influencing the CEC are analyzed.

Factors affecting the pilot trading market of carbon emissions in China

Climate change and carbon emissions are major problems which are attracting worldwide attention. China has had its pilot carbon emission trading markets in seven regions for more than 3 years. What affects carbon emission trading market in China is a big question. More attention is paid to how China promotes the carbon emission trading schemes in the whole country. This paper addresses concerns about the functioning of carbon emission trading schemes in seven pilot regions and takes the weekly data from November 25, 2013, to March 19, 2017. We employ a vector autoregressive model to study how coal price, oil price and stock index have affected the carbon price in China. The results indicate that carbon price is mainly affected by its own historical price; coal price and stock index have negative effects on carbon price, while oil price has a negative effect on carbon price during the first 3 weeks and then has a positive effect on carbon price. More regulatory attention and economic measures are needed to improve market efficiency, and the mechanisms of carbon emission trading schemes should be improved.

Spatial emission reduction effects of China’s carbon emissions trading:quasi-natural experiments and policy spillovers

Insufficient assessment of emission reduction effects still exists in the carbon emission rights trading system,a major environmental regulation measure in China.Based on the data from the carbon trading pilot covering the years from 2007 to 2017,this study combined the synthetic control method with dynamic spatial Durbin model to comprehensively evaluate the spatial emission reduction effects of carbon trading policies.The results showed that:①The carbon trading policies promoted carbon emission reductions in the pilot regions,among which Tianjin and Hubei responded significantly,and also helped to suppress carbon emissions in the neighboring areas.②Long-term emission reduction effect from carbon emissions trading became gradually significant,while the indirect emission reduction effect was relatively weaker.③In term of reducing carbon emissions,the economic development channel played a key role,but it had a threat to the promotion of carbon emissions in the surrounding areas.Energy consumption was the main obstacle to the growth of carbon emissions.④In the long run,technological progress tended to become the key to the effective implementation of potential emission reduction effects of carbon trading policies.Based on the above findings,we suggest that the construction of a national carbon trading market should be promoted,the balanced development and orderly advancement of regional carbon trading markets should be paid attention to,the coordinated development of green economy as well as knowledge and technology exchange and cooperation among regions should be strengthened to form a low carbon development model among regions.

Game analysis on constructing the model of an international carbon emissions trading model

Constructing a model for international carbon emissions trading is an effective method to curb global warming through a market mechanism.Although the international carbon emissions market generates substantial profits,the relevant trading mechanism has been far from perfect.The perfect mechanism for international carbon emissions trading should be a revealing preference game.In other words,only if all players in this game truly show their information and preferences can the Nash outcome be Pareto efficient and fair.China should actively participate in the international carbon emissions trading game;promote efficiency,justice,rationality,and the quality of being manipulation-free in the carbon emissions market;and play a more important role in perfecting the international carbon emissions trading mechanism.

Localization Reform of Carbon Emissions Trading Mechanism in China

Based on the practical experiences of Guangdong carbon emissions trading pilot, the key issues such as cap setting, allowance alloca- tion, system defects, regulatory integration and MRV mechanisms were analyzed in this paper from the localization perspective. A number of solu- tions and policy recommendations were also proposed in this study in order to solve these barriers.

Carbon Price Forecasting Approach Based on Multi-Scale Decomposition and Transfer Learning

Accurate carbon price forecasting is essential to provide the guidance for production and investment.Current research is mainly dependent on plenty of historical samples of carbon prices,which is impractical for the newly launched carbon market due to its short history.Based on the idea of transfer learning,this paper proposes a novel price forecasting model,which utilizes the correlation between the new and mature markets.The model is firstly pretrained on large data of mature market by gated recurrent unit algorithm,and then fine-tuned by the target market samples.An integral framework,including complexity decomposition method for data pre-processing,sample entropy for feature selection,and support vector regression for result post-processing,is provided.In the empirical analysis of new Chinese market,the root mean square error,mean absolute error,mean absolute percentage error,and determination coefficient of the model are 0.529,0.476,0.717%and 0.501 respectively,proving its validity.

The validity of carbon emission trading policies:Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China

This study focuses on the validity of carbon emission trading policies(CETP).CETP aims to adjusting the consumption structure of clean energy and promoting the transformation of green technology to achieve regional CO2 and SO2 reduction.Using difference-in-difference(DID)and spatial panel model,we estimated the abatement effect of CETP,the influence mechanism of regional CO2 and SO2 policies,environmental and economic compatibility with provincial panel data in China from 2005 to 2017.The results show that the CETP can effectively decrease regional CO2 and SO2 emissions in pilot areas by 19.1%and 37.0%respectively when considering spatial correlation of CO2 and SO2 emissions.From 2014 to 2017,the values of CO2 reduction effect are−0.139,−0.146,−0.187 and−0.206 respectively,indicating the abatement effect increases gradually.CETP can promote 6.1%of the ratio of clean energy consumption and 4.6%of the rate of green technology.In addition,further benefit analysis shows that CETP can improve 12.4%of regional economic output and residents'health by reducing regional CO2 and SO2 emissions,and effectively benefit high-quality economic growth.

The key elements analysis of Guangdong & Shenzhen ETS & tips for China national ETS construction

The only joint effort area of provincial and municipal governments resides in Guangdong Province and Shenzhen City in China's carbon emission trading system(ETS) pilots,which characterize the national carbon ETS plots.The present study on the operating experience from this area has important reference value for the national carbon ETS.Analysis and comparison of the key elements show many differences in coverage,total allowance,allowance allocation,and MRV mechanism between Guangdong and Shenzhen carbon ETS.The present study provides the following explanation:(1)the design characteristics of carbon ETS(e.g.coverage,total quotas,the allocation,and MRV mechanism) depend on the local geographical conditions and policy goals.The differences of economic structure in Guangdong Province and Shenzhen City result in different coverage,which then result in differences in other management elements.(2)The operating state of the carbon market is affected by overall design of carbon ETS:in the case of tighter total allowance,lower proportion of China Certified Emission Reductions,and harsher punishment,the carbon market is relatively active,which intends to produce carbon financial market.Based on deep analysis of operation characteristics of carbon ETS in Guangdong and Shenzhen,the present study suggests that(1)the allowance should be allocated freely at the beginning stage and then gradually transited to the voluntary paid auction;(2)the allowances assigned to companies shall be linked up with their energy-saving objectives;(3)the output fluctuations and economic influence on the allowance allocation should be properly handled to maintain the fairness and consistence of allowance allocation standards;(4)stable public expectation is one of the key elements to maintain the regular operation of carbon ETS;(5)constrained carbon emission behavior outside ETS can contribute to social justice;and(6)the improvement of professional skills of relevant personnel in the enterprise and independent third party can enhance carbon emissions data reliability.

Optimal Implementation Strategy of Carbon Emission Reduction Policy Instruments in Consideration of Cost Efficiency

In this paper, regulatory and optimum programming model has been adopted. Considering the costs of emission reduction, supervision and penalty, we went all out to analyze the optimal decision of cost efficiency of regulators when implementing these three policy instruments: carbon emission standards, carbon emission trading permissions, and carbon taxes as well. Its result has indicated: In strict accordance with control target of total carbon emissions, regulators are willing to render social and economic cost able to achieve the goal of optimal cost efficiency by regulating carbon emission standards and supervising marginal cost caused by variations in the probability; fortunately, under the conditions of low supervisory cost and certain criteria which is met, the implementation of carbon emission trading permissions could provide social and economic cost with opportunities to realize that objective; through comparative analysis, carbon emission trading permissions have the advantages of higher efficiency than carbon emission standards on the premise of incomplete information. During the implementation of carbon taxes strategy, when there exists uncertainty information in the enterprises reduction behaviors, the condition which enterprises can fully comply with is the tax rate level is not higher than marginal penalty function; the tax rate level of enterprises perfect compliance ought not to be lower than the division of marginal penalty cost and marginal supervisory cost. The optimal strategy of enterprises imperfect compliance is that regulators varying the marginal cost of emission standards is equal to varying that of supervisory probability.

Green Technology Innovation under China's New Development Concept:The Effects of Policy-Push and Demand-Pull on Renewable Energy Innovation

Green technology innovation meets the dual expectation of innovative development and green development perspectives.Under the canonical demand-pull and policy-push theories,a long-term mechanism for green technology innovation could be formed through upstream policy push and downstream demand-pull.Leveraging China's regional carbon emission trading scheme pilots as a quasi-natural experiment,this paper examines the policy-push and demand-pull effects on innovation in renewable energy patents.The data pertain to the city-level renewable energy patents from 2000 to 2020.Based upon the triple difference-in-difference method,results suggest that both policy-push and demandpull factors exert positive effects on innovation.This paper further explores the practical and theoretical implications of green technology innovation under the new development perspective.

Impacts of Market-based Environmental Regulation on Green Total Factor Energy Efficiency in China

This study employed a difference-in-differences design to assess the effect of marketbased environmental regulation on green total factor energy efficiency(GTFEE)in a quasi-natural experiment that investigated China's carbon emissions trading scheme(ETS).The empirical results show that ETS had a positive effect on GTFEE.A series of robustness tests revealed that the results were robust.Potential mechanisms through which ETS can improve GTFEE include the promotion of technological innovation and the upgrading of industrial structure.The positive effects varied in different cities and diferent regions-the result was pronounced in eastern China and developed cities,but it was insignificant in central and western areas and developing cities.This study confirms the satisfactory performance of China's ETS in improving GTFEE,and this is relevant for other emerging countries.

Will auctioning promote the renewable energy generation in China?

Renewable energy generation,as part of the global effort to mitigate climate change,will play a central role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and achieving China's goal of carbon emissions peak before 2030 and carbon neutral before 2060.However,the impact of carbon quota auctions on renewable energy generation has not been sufficiently discussed.The main purpose of this study is to investigate whether China can rely on quota auctions to increase renewable energy generation in the short term,and to demonstrate which is more effective in promoting renewable energy development,policy enforcement or auction constraints?The improved neo-trans-log production model,the multiobjective linear programming model and the dispatch heuristic were used to predict additional emission reduction cost,optimized power mix with different auctioning rates,with economic development,technological progress and the unique characteristics of China's power generation industry being taken into consideration.The results show that the auctioning rate will have little influence on the optimized energy production structure,especially on the share of renewable energy resources;when the total on-grid electricity generation ranges from 7625 to 7926 billion kW h and the auctioning rate ranges from 0% to 5%,policy enforcement will influence the generation of renewable energy to a greater extent than auctioning in the near future.