Projected land use changes in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau at the carbon peak and carbon neutrality targets

Based on historical land use for eight periods from 1980 to 2020 and the projected land use under seven Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs:SSP1-1.9,SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,SSP4-3.4,SSP4-6.0,and SSP5-8.5)from 2021 to 2100,we conducted a study on past and future land use changes in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(QTP).This work aims to reveal the land use changes during the carbon peak(2021-2040)and carbon neutrality(2051-2070)periods and at the end of the 21st century(2081-2100).The results show that:(1)in the historical period(1980-2020),the land use types in the QTP were grassland(1475×10^(3)km^(2),58.2%),barren land(685×10^(3)km^(2),27.0%),forest land(243×10^(3)km^(2),9.6%),water(114×10^(3)km^(2),4.5%),cropland(18.6×10^(3)km^(2),0.7%)and urban land(0.3×10^(3)km^(2),0.01%).(2)Relative to the baseline period(1995-2014),the area of grassland is projected to decrease by 0.7%(SSP4-6.0)-5.4%(SSP2-4.5)(0.5-3.9%of the total area of the QTP),2.8%(SSP4-6.0)-12.5%(SSP3-7.0)(2.1-9.4%of the total area of the QTP)and 6.1%(SSP4-6.0)-21.7%(SSP4-3.4)(4.6-16.4%of the total area of the QTP)in the future three periods.In contrast,the forest land area is projected to increase,by approximately 2.5%(SSP4-6.0)to 30.1%(SSP3-7.0)(0.3-4.3%of the total area of the QTP),9.2%(SSP4-6.0)to 56.5%(SSP2-4.5)(1.3-8.0%of the total area of the QTP),and 21.2%(SSP4-6.0)to 72.8%(SSP2-4.5)(3.0-10.2%of the total area of the QTP)in the future three periods,respectively.(3)Approximately 0.4(SSP4-6.0)to 6.9%(SSP5-8.5),0.9(SSP4-6.0)to 2.7%(SSP4-3.4),and 0.04(SSP5-8.5)to 3.5%(SSP1-1.9)of land is expected to convert from grassland to forest land in the future three periods,respectively.The shift from grassland to forest land area is likely to enhance the carbon sink potential of the QTP in the future period.

Research on the Spatiotemporal Evolution,and Optimized Paths of Carbon Pressure in Northwestern Sichuan under the Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality Goals

Consolidating carbon sink capacity and reducing carbon pressure are important channels to achieve the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals actively yet prudently.In order to study the current situation of carbon pressure in the Northwestern Sichuan,we took the carbon pressure of the Aba Tibetan-Qiang autonomous prefecture(Aba prefecture)as an example and used the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)approach to measure the carbon emissions,carbon uptake,and the carbon balance index(CBI)of each county-level city in Aba prefecture from 2012 to 2020.The study found that:(a)There was a continuous trend of declining carbon emissions,increased carbon uptake,and decreased CBI in Aba prefecture during the sample period,but there is a large variability among county-level cities;(b)Aba prefecture differs in the spatiotemporal distribution of carbon emissions,carbon uptake,and CBI.Based on the research results,we propose several optimized paths for alleviating the current carbon pressure situation in the Northwestern Sichuan.

Research on Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality Technological Pathways in the Chinese Papermaking Industry

Against the backdrop of the dual carbon goals,the papermaking industry in China faces significant pressure to reduce emissions and lower carbon intensity.Based on historical data of energy consumption in the pulp and paper industry in China from 2000 to 2020,this study analyzed the current status of paper production and energy consumption in China.Two methods were employed to predict the growth trend of paper production in China,and three carbon dioxide emission accounting methods were compared.The study used an accounting method based on the industry’s overall energy consumption and predicted the carbon dioxide(CO_(2))emissions of the Chinese papermaking industry from 2021 to 2060 under three scenarios.The study identified the timing for achieving carbon peak and proposed the measures for carbon neutrality.The results indicated that:(1)the CO_(2)emissions of the Chinese papermaking industry in 2020 were 111.98 million tons.(2)Under low-demand,high-demand,and baseline scenarios,the papermaking industry is expected to achieve carbon peak during the“14th Five-Year Plan”period.(3)In 2060,under the three scenarios,CO_(2)emissions from the papermaking industry will decrease by 11%-31%compared to the baseline year.However,there will still be emissions of 72-93 million tons,requiring reductions in fossil energy consumption at the source,increasing forestry carbon sequestration and utilization of Carbon Capture,Utilization and Storage(CCUS)technology,and taking measures such as carbon trading to achieve carbon neutrality.

Progress, challenge and significance of building a carbon industry system in the context of carbon neutrality strategy

Carbon dioxide storage and utilization has become an inevitable trend and choice for sustainable development under the background of global climate change and carbon neutrality.Carbon industry which is dominated by CO_(2) capture,utilization and storage/CO_(2) capture and storage(CCUS/CCS)is becoming a new strategic industry under the goal of carbon neutrality.The sustainable development of carbon industry needs to learn from the experiences of global oil and gas industry development.There are three types of“carbon”in the earth system.Black carbon is the CO_(2) that has not been sequestered or used and remains in the atmosphere for a long time;grey carbon is the CO_(2) that has been fixed or permanently sequestered in the geological body,and blue carbon is the CO_(2) that could be converted into products for human use through biological,physical,chemical and other ways.The carbon industry system covers carbon generation,carbon capture,carbon transportation,carbon utilization,carbon sequestration,carbon products,carbon finance,and other businesses.It is a revolutionary industrial field to completely eliminate“black carbon”.The development of carbon industry technical system takes carbon emission reduction,zero carbon,negative carbon and carbon economy as the connotation,and the construction of a low-cost and energy-efficient carbon industry system based on CCUS/CCS are strategic measures to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality and clean energy utilization globally.This will promote the“four 80%s”transformation of China's energy supply,namely,to 2060,the percentage of zero-carbon new energy in the energy consumption will be over 80%and the CO_(2) emission will be decreased by 80%to ensure the carbon emission reduction of total 80×10^(8) t from the percentage of carbon-based fossil energy in the energy consumption of over 80%,and the percentage of CO_(2) emission from energy of over 80%in 2021.The carbon industry in China is facing three challenges,large CO_(2) emissions,high percentage of coal in energy consumption,and poor innovative system.Three strategic measures are proposed accordingly,including:(1)unswervingly develop carbon industrial system and ensure the achievement of carbon neutrality as scheduled by 2060;(2)vigorously develop new energy sources and promote a revolutionary transformation of China’s energy production and consumption structure;(3)accelerate the establishment of scientific and technological innovation system of the whole CO_(2) industry.It is of great significance for continuously optimization of ecological environment and construction of green earth and ecological earth to develop the carbon industry system,utilize clean energy,and achieve the strategic goal of global carbon neutrality.

Forecast of natural gas supply and demand in China under the background of “Dual Carbon Targets”

As a kind of clean energy which creates little carbon dioxide, natural gas will play a key role in the process of achieving “Peak Carbon Dioxide Emission” and “Carbon Neutrality”. The Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System(LEAP) model was improved by using new parameters including comprehensive energy efficiency and terminal effective energy consumption. The Back Propagation(BP) Neural Network–LEAP model was proposed to predict key data such as total primary energy consumption, energy mix, carbon emissions from energy consumption, and natural gas consumption in China. Moreover, natural gas production in China was forecasted by the production composition method. Finally, based on the forecast results of natural gas supply and demand, suggestions were put forward on the development of China’s natural gas industry under the background of “Dual Carbon Targets”. The research results indicate that under the background of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, China’s primary energy consumption will peak(59.4×10^(8)tce) around 2035, carbon emissions from energy consumption will peak(103.4×10^(8)t) by 2025, and natural gas consumption will peak(6100×10^(8)m^(3)) around 2040, of which the largest increase will be contributed by the power sector and industrial sector. China’s peak natural gas production is about(2800–3400)×10^(8)m^(3), including(2100–2300)×10^(8)m^(3)conventional gas(including tight gas),(600–1050)×10^(8)m^(3)shale gas, and(150–220)×10^(8)m^(3)coalbed methane. Under the background of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, the natural gas consumption and production of China will further increase, showing a great potential of the natural gas industry.

Key Optimization Issues for Renewable Energy Systems under Carbon-Peaking and Carbon Neutrality Targets:Current States and Perspectives

1 Introduction The United States,Japan,Canada,the European Union,and other developed countries and regions have all formulated climate strategies and pledged to achieve net-zero CO_(2) emissions by 2050.China,meanwhile,has announced through the“carbon-peaking and carbon neutrality targets”in September 2020 that it aims to achieve“peak carbon use”by 2030 and“carbon neutrality”by 2060[1].According to statistical data from the International Energy Agency(IEA),Fig.1 illustrates the carbon intensity of electricity generation in various regions in the Announced Pledge Scenario(APS)from 2010 to 2040[2].One can easily observe that each region aims to accomplish a sharp decrease in the carbon intensity of electricity generation after 2020.

Policy and Management of Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality:A Literature Review

The vision of reaching a carbon peak and achieving carbon neutrality is guiding the low-carbon transition of China’s socioeconomic system.Currently,a research gap remains in the existing literature in terms of studies that systematically identify opportunities to achieve carbon neutrality.To address this gap,this study comprehensively collates and investigates 1105 published research studies regarding carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.In doing so,the principles of development in this area are quantitively analyzed from a space–time perspective.At the same time,this study traces shifts and alterations in research hotspots.This systematic review summarizes the priorities and standpoints of key industries on carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.Furthermore,with an emphasis on five key management science topics,the scientific concerns and strategic demands for these two carbon emission-reduction goals are clarified.The paper ends with theoretical insights on and practical countermeasures for actions,priority tasks,and policy measures that will enable China to achieve a carbon-neutral future.This study provides a complete picture of the research status on carbon peaking and carbon neutrality,as well as the research directions worth investigating in this field,which are crucial to the formulation of carbon peak and carbon neutrality policies.

Carbon peak and carbon neutrality in China:Goals,implementation path and prospects

Climate change is a common problem in human society.The Chinese government promises to peak carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and strives to achieve carbon neutralization by 2060.The proposal of the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutralization has led China into the era of climate economy and set off a green change with both opportunities and challenges.On the basis of expounding the objectives and specific connotation of China’s carbon peak and carbon neutralization,this paper systematically discusses the main implementation path and the prospect of China’s carbon peak and carbon neutralization.China’s path to realizing carbon neutralization includes four directions:(1)in terms of carbon dioxide emission control:energy transformation path,energy conservation,and emission reduction path;(2)for increasing carbon sink:carbon capture,utilization,and storage path,ecological governance,and land greening path;(3)in key technology development:zero-carbon utilization,coal new energy coupling,carbon capture utilization and storage(CCUS),energy storage technology and other key technology paths required to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutralization;(4)from the angle of policy development:Formulate legal guarantees for the government to promote the carbon trading market;Formulate carbon emission standards for enterprises and increase publicity and education for individuals and society.Based on practicing the goal and path of carbon peak and carbon neutralization,China will vigorously develop low carbon and circular economy and promote green and high-quality economic development;speed up to enter the era of fossil resources and promoting energy transformation;accelerate the integrated innovation of green and low-carbon technologies and promote carbon neutrality.

Research on Carbon Reduction Strategy of China’s Industrial Chain with the Goal of Carbon Emission Peak and Carbon Neutrality

In order to achieve the development goals of emission peak in 2030 and carbon neutrality in 2060,carbon reduction measures should be implemented in the whole industrial chain.Based on the existing research,the basic logic of carbon reduction in the industrial chain is analyzed,and then the specific strategies for carbon reduction in the industrial chain are proposed,including:reducing the use of fossil energy and vigorously developing the new energy industry;reducing carbon through energy conservation,industrial upgrading,development of circular economy,and application of carbon capture technology;reducing carbon through low-carbon transformation of logistics industry,innovation of trading methods,and promotion of low-carbon green consumption.The external guarantee system for carbon reduction includes the introduction of relevant policies,laws and regulations,and the use of carbon emission trading mechanism.

Study on the Carbon Effect of Agricultural Land Remediation Based on the Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality Goals

With the goal of achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality,this paper studies the carbon effect of agricultural land remediation.In this paper,the carbon effect mechanism and calculation method of land consolidation,the proposed national carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals,and the requirements put forward by agricultural land consolidation followed were analyzed.Then,the application research on the carbon effect accounting of agricultural land consolidation was conducted.Besides,the application process of carbon effect accounting of land consolidation with the goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.Therefore,we hope this study will play an effective role to advance the carbon effect research in the regulation of agricultural land.

Consumer behavior patterns of carbon neutral label using the unified theory of acceptance and use of technology

China has paid considerable attention to developing and implementing a carbon labeling system in response to increasing environmental issues such as global warming.This paper aims to provide a theoretical basis for formulating and implementing a carbon labeling system in China through a study of consumer acceptance behavior and its influencing factors.This paper constructed an extended model of consumers’acceptance behavior of carbon neutral labels based on the theories and methods of Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology(UTAUT)and analyzed the effects of five factors(carbon label cognition,performance expectancy,effort expectancy,social influence,and facilitating factors)on consumer carbon neutral label acceptance and adoption.The structural equation model analysis revealed that carbon label cognition,performance expectancy,social influence,and facilitating factors significantly,and positively impact consumers’acceptance of carbon neutral labels.Moreover,carbon label cognition,performance expectancy,and facilitating factors significantly,and positively affect consumers’carbon neutral label adoption behavior.Meanwhile,carbon label cognition,and effort expectancy have no significant impact on consumers’willingness to accept carbon neutral labels,which in turn significantly impacts consumers’carbon neutral label adoption behavior.According to the research findings,increasing the promotion of carbon labeling and improving the practical strategies and management recommendations for carbon label design are proposed.

Evaluating the Derivative Value of Smart Grid Investment under Dual Carbon Target: A Hybrid Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Analysis

With the goal of“carbon peaking and carbon neutralization”,it is an inevitable trend for investing smart grid to promote the large-scale grid connection of renewable energy.Smart grid investment has a significant driving effect(derivative value),and evaluating this value can help to more accurately grasp the external effects of smart grid investment and support the realization of industrial linkage value with power grid investment as the core.Therefore,by analyzing the characterization of the derivative value of smart grid driven by investment,this paper constructs the evaluation index system of the derivative value of smart grid investment including 11 indicators.Then,the hybrid evaluation model of the derivative value of smart grid investment is developed based on anti-entropy weight(AEW),level based weight assessment(LBWA),and measurement alternatives and ranking according to the compromise solution(MARCOS)techniques.The results of case analysis show that for SG investment,the value of sustainable development can better reflect its derivative value,and when smart grid performs poorly in promoting renewable energy consumption,improving primary energy efficiency,and improving its own fault resistance,the driving force of its investment for future sustainable development will decline significantly,making the grid investment lack derivative value.In addition,smart grid investment needs to pay attention to the economy of investment,which is an important guarantee to ensure that the power grid has sufficient and stable sources of investment funds.Finally,compared with three comparison models,the proposed hybrid multi-criteria decision-making(MCDM)model can better improve the decision-making efficiency on the premise of ensuring robustness.

Bioenergy Perspectives in the EU Regions: Carbon Neutrality Pathway

Bioenergy plays an important role in the climate neutrality targets of the EU. However, the status of bioenergy implementation varies greatly across the EU. The aim of this paper is to assess the role of bioenergy in different EU countries using EU experts’ opinions of bioenergy implementation in their own country. The paper identifies leading and lagging countries in biomass development by focusing on the current share of bioenergy in the total energy supply. The study shows differences in bioenergy development between Southern and Western EU countries with Northern and Eastern EU countries. The anti-bioenergy movement and continuing political support for the fossil fuel industry are important barriers inhibiting biomass development in many EU countries, especially in Southern Europe and Western Europe. Our analysis finds that the EU needs more factual bioenergy information and improved promotion of bioenergy throughout society, especially in southern and western parts of the EU. Bioenergy development in the EU can be looked at optimistically, especially in Northern and Eastern Europe. The experience of societal acceptance of bioenergy in countries such as Finland and Sweden is applicable to countries that have thus far seen less progress in bioenergy implementation such as Poland and the Netherlands.

Major contribution to carbon neutrality by China’s geosciences and geological technologies

In the context of global climate change,geosciences provide an important geological solution to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality,China’s geosciences and geological technologies can play an important role in solving the problem of carbon neutrality.This paper discusses the main problems,opportunities,and challenges that can be solved by the participation of geosciences in carbon neutrality,as well as China’s response to them.The main scientific problems involved and the geological work carried out mainly fall into three categories:(1)Carbon emission reduction technology(natural gas hydrate,geothermal,hot dry rock,nuclear energy,hydropower,wind energy,solar energy,hydrogen energy);(2)carbon sequestration technology(carbon capture and storage,underground space utilization);(3)key minerals needed to support carbon neutralization(raw materials for energy transformation,carbon reduction technology).Therefore,geosciences and geological technologies are needed:First,actively participate in the development of green energy such as natural gas,geothermal energy,hydropower,hot dry rock,and key energy minerals,and develop exploration and exploitation technologies such as geothermal energy and natural gas;the second is to do a good job in geological support for new energy site selection,carry out an in-depth study on geotechnical feasibility and mitigation measures,and form the basis of relevant economic decisions to reduce costs and prevent geological disasters;the third is to develop and coordinate relevant departments of geosciences,organize and carry out strategic research on natural resources,carry out theoretical system research on global climate change and other issues under the guidance of earth system science theory,and coordinate frontier scientific information and advanced technological tools of various disciplines.The goal of carbon neutrality provides new opportunities and challenges for geosciences research.In the future,it is necessary to provide theoretical and technical support from various aspects,enhance the ability of climate adaptation,and support the realization of the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.

Research on the Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutralization Model in Colleges and Universities:Taking China University of Geosciences(Beijing)as an Example

The“3060”goal demonstrates China’s responsibility in actively responding to global climate,enhances China’s voice and influence in climate governance,and sets an example of energy conservation and emission reduction for developing countries.As the main institutions that educate people for the Party and the country,colleges and universities have the responsibility to explore the realization path of carbon peak and carbon neutralization against the new problems encountered in the practice of energy conservation and emission reduction in colleges and universities.In response to the national strategy and the action plan of the Ministry of Education,taking the carbon practice of China University of Geosciences(Beijing)as the starting point,this paper conducts benchmarking research on the path of carbon peak and carbon neutralization in universities through the ecological factor method,campus carbon footprint,and questionnaire analysis.

Research progress on construction of monitoring system and platform for Carbon peak and Carbon neutral in Chinese fisheries

In order to thoroughly implement the national research on peak carbon dioxide emissions’carbon neutral strategy,this paper uses China National Knowledge Infrastructure(CNKI)network database to search the literature reports on the theme of carbon neutrality in peak carbon dioxide emissions,and makes bibliometric analysis from key words,institutions and research fields.The literature mainly focuses on 2020-2021;the research hotspots are peak carbon dioxide emissions,carbon neutrality,and carbon emission.After analysis,the relevant research in the fishery field is still in the initial stage,and the construction of monitoring system and platform needs to be further strengthened to provide technical support for realizing the goal of"double carbon"in the fishery field in the future.

An analysis of China's CO_2 emission peaking target and pathways

China has set the goal for its CO2 emissions to peak around 2030, which is not only a strategic decision coordinating domestic sustainable development and global climate change mitigation but also an overarching target and a key point of action for China＇s resource conservation, environmental protection, shift in economic development patterns, and CO2 emission reduction to avoid climate change. The development stage where China maps out the CO2 emission peak target is earlier than that of the developed countries. It is a necessity that the non-fossil energy supplies be able to meet all the increased energy demand for achieving CO2 emission peaking. Given that China＇s potential GDP annual increasing rate will be more than 4%, and China＇s total energy demand will continue to increase by approximately 1.0%--1.5% annually around 2030, new and renewable energies will need to increase by 6%-8% annually to meet the desired CO2 emission peak. The share of new and renewable energies in China＇s total primary energy supply will be approximately 20% by 2030. At that time, the energy consumption elasticity will decrease to around 0.3, and the annual decrease in the rate of CO2 intensity will also be higher than 4% to ensure the sustained growth of GDE To achieve the CO2 emission peaking target and substantially promote the low-carbon deve!opment transformation, China needs to actively promote an energy production and consumption revolution, the innovation of advanced energy technologies, the reform of the energy regulatory system and pricing mechanism, and especially the construction of a national carbon emission cap and trade system.

Basic Path and System Construction of Green and Low-Carbon Agricultural Development with Respect to the Strategic Target of Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality

The Dual Carbon strategy,which is aimed at achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality,is one of China's major strategiesinthecomingperiod.Agriculture is both an important source of greenhouse gas and a huge carbon sink system.To promote the Dual Carbon strategy,it is crucial for China to lay emphasis on green and low-carbon agricultural development.To achieve carbon peaking,agricultural carbonreduction and sequestration are significant means and haveegreat potential.Thisspaper firstly reviews the current situation of green and lowcarbon agricultural developmen.t.At present,the total agricultural carbon emissions in China are approaching the peak smoothly,and the proportion of carbon emissionsSgenerated by the use of such modern agricultural inputssas fertilizer and on-farm energy increases.Meanwhile,the operation of agricultural ecosystems in China demonstrates the strong capacity to absorb carbon.Then,the paper analyzes the main problems existing in green and low-carbon agricultural development,including excessive agricultural inputs and excessive consumption of fossil energy,the low utilization rate of agricultural resources,insufficient technical reserves for green and low-carbon agricultural development,and a weak supporting system.In the next part,the paper elaborates on the basic path and measures to realize green and low-carbon agriculturalddevelopment,such as strengthening the conservation of agricultural resources and improving the efficiency of resource utilization;enhancing the comprehensive treatment of agricultural non-point source pollution,realizing the reduction and efficiency of fertilizer and pesticide,resource utilization of agricultural wastes,and effective control of white agricultural pollution;cultivating,expanding and strengthening green and low-carbon agricultural industries,and greening the whole industrial chain of agricultural products from production,processing tocirculation;increasing scientific and technological innovation and building a scientific and technological support systems for green and low-carbon agricultural development.Finally,an institutional system to promote green and low-carbon agricultural development is constructed from the aspects of fiscal and taxation system,financial system,land management system,value realization mechanism of ecological products,and constraint and incentive mechanism,etc.This study provides a scientific basis for the further formulation of green and lowcarbon agricultural development policies and measures and relevant research.

Change trend of natural gas hydrates in permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(1960-2050)under the background of global warming and their impacts on carbon emissions

Global warming and the response to it have become a topic of concern in today’s society and are also a research focus in the global scientific community.As the world’s third pole,the global warming amplifier,and the starting region of China’s climate change,the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is extremely sensitive to climate change.The permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is rich in natural gas hydrates(NGHs)resources.Under the background of global warming,whether the NGHs will be disassociated and enter the atmosphere as the air temperature rises has become a major concern of both the public and the scientific community.Given this,this study reviewed the trend of global warming and accordingly summarized the characteristics of the temperature increase in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.Based on this as well as the distribution characteristics of the NGHs in the permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,this study investigated the changes in the response of the NGHs to global warming,aiming to clarify the impacts of global warming on the NGHs in the permafrost of the plateau.A noticeable response to global warming has been observed in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.Over the past decades,the increase in the mean annual air temperature of the plateau was increasingly high and more recently.Specifically,the mean annual air temperature of the plateau changed at a rate of approximately 0.308-0.420℃/10a and increased by approximately 1.54-2.10℃in the past decades.Moreover,the annual mean ground temperature of the shallow permafrost on the plateau increased by approximately 1.155-1.575℃and the permafrost area decreased by approximately 0.34×10^(6)km^(2) from about 1.4×10^(6)km^(2) to 1.06×10^(6)km^(2) in the past decades.As indicated by simulated calculation results,the thickness of the NGH-bearing permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has decreased by 29-39 m in the past 50 years,with the equivalent of(1.69-2.27)×10^(10)-(1.12-1.51)×10^(12)m^(3) of methane(CH_(4))being released due to NGHs dissociation.It is predicted that the thickness of the NGH-bearing permafrost will decrease by 23 m and 27 m,and dissociated and released NGHs will be the equivalent of(1.34-88.8)×10^(10)m^(3) and(1.57-104)×10^(10)m^(3)of CH_(4),respectively by 2030 and 2050.Considering the positive feedback mechanism of NGHs on global warming and the fact that CH_(4) has a higher greenhouse effect than carbon dioxide,the NGHs in the permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau will emit more CH_(4) into the atmosphere,which is an important trend of NGHs under the background of global warming.Therefore,the NGHs are destructive as a time bomb and may lead to a waste of efforts that mankind has made in carbon emission reduction and carbon neutrality.Accordingly,this study suggests that human beings should make more efforts to conduct the exploration and exploitation of the NGHs in the permafrost of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,accelerate research on the techniques and equipment for NGHs extraction,storage,and transportation,and exploit the permafrost-associated NGHs while thawing them.The purpose is to reduce carbon emissions into the atmosphere and mitigate the atmospheric greenhouse effect,thus contributing to the global goal of peak carbon dioxide emissions and carbon neutrality.

Development Strategy and Countermeasures of China's CBM Industry under the Goal of “Carbon Peak and Neutrality”

China’s coalbed methane(CBM) industry is in an extremely important “climbing period” and “strategic opportunity period”,which can be generally characterized by “three low and one small”:low degree of exploration and development,low adaptability of main technology,low return on investment and small development scale.Under the “carbon peak and neutrality” background,the development status of CBM industry is systematically combed.The resources,technology,management problems and reasons are analyzed.Strategies and countermeasures to accelerate the industrial development are put forward according to the factors such as efficient development of resources,major technical breakthrough,talent team training,policy formulation and implementation,return on investment and so on.The existing problems are as follows:(a) The overall occurrence conditions in China are complicated and the development is difficult compared with the other countries.(b) The research precision accuracy of CBM resource conditions is not enough.(c) The adaptability of technology is poor.(d) The management mode is not suitable.In view of these problems,this paper puts forward the “two steps” development strategy and the technical and management countermeasures of “five in one”.The corresponding “five in one” technology and management countermeasures are the formulation and implementation of relevant safeguard measures in accordance with the principle of collaborative innovation in five aspects:resources,technology,talents,policies and investment.Through the above measures,the dream and grand blueprint of CBM industry shall be realized.