Rolling Decision Model of Thermal Power Retrofit and Generation Expansion Planning Considering Carbon Emissions and Power Balance Risk

With the increasing urgency of the carbon emission reduction task,the generation expansion planning process needs to add carbon emission risk constraints,in addition to considering the level of power adequacy.However,methods for quantifying and assessing carbon emissions and operational risks are lacking.It results in excessive carbon emissions and frequent load-shedding on some days,although meeting annual carbon emission reduction targets.First,in response to the above problems,carbon emission and power balance risk assessment indicators and assessment methods,were proposed to quantify electricity abundance and carbon emission risk level of power planning scenarios,considering power supply regulation and renewable energy fluctuation characteristics.Secondly,building on traditional two-tier models for low-carbon power planning,including investment decisions and operational simulations,considering carbon emissions and power balance risks in lower-tier operational simulations,a two-tier rolling model for thermal power retrofit and generation expansion planning was established.The model includes an investment tier and operation assessment tier and makes year-by-year decisions on the number of thermal power units to be retrofitted and the type and capacity of units to be commissioned.Finally,the rationality and validity of the model were verified through an example analysis,a small-scale power supply system in a certain region is taken as an example.The model can significantly reduce the number of days of carbon emissions risk and ensure that the power balance risk is within the safe limit.

Carbon emission trading system and stock price crash risk of heavily polluting listed companies in China:based on analyst coverage mechanism

This study reveals the inconsistencies between the negative externalities of carbon emissions and the recognition condition of accounting statements.Hence,the study identifies that heavily polluting enterprises in China have severe off-balance sheet carbon reduction risks before implementing the carbon emission trading system(CETS).Through the staggered difference-in-difference(DID)model and the propen-sity score matching-DID model,the impact of CETS on reducing the risk of stock price crashes is examined using data from China’s A-share heavily polluting listed companies from 2007 to 2019.The results of this study are as follows:(1)CETS can significantly reduce the risk of stock price crashes for heavily polluting companies in the pilot areas.Specifically,CETS reduces the skewness(negative conditional skewness)and down-to-up volatility of the firm-specific weekly returns by 8.7%and 7.6%,respectively.(2)Heterogeneity analysis further shows that the impacts of CETS on the risk of stock price crashes are more significant for heavily polluting enterprises with the bear market condition,short-sighted management,and intensive air pollution.(3)Mechanism tests show that CETS can reduce analysts’coverage of heavy polluters,reducing the risk of stock price crashes.This study reveals the role of CETS from the stock price crash risk perspective and helps to clarify the relationship between climatic risk and corporate financial risk.

The price of carbon risk:Evidence from China's bond market

Using a 2009–2019 sample of Chinese bond issuers,we examine the effect of carbon risk on bond financing costs.Relative to low carbon risk issuers,high carbon risk issuers have substantially larger bond credit spreads,mainly because their credit risk is greater and they invest the funds in non-green projects.This positive relationship is more pronounced for issuers with financing constraints,those not making a green transition and those in cities with stringent environmental regulations.We find a reversed effect during the COVID-19 pandemic.However,China’s carbon peak and carbon neutral goals have renewed the focus on carbon risk.Carbon risk also causes bond issuers to scale back production and negatively affects their likelihood of receiving long-term financial support.Our findings suggest that investors consider carbon risk and charge a corresponding risk premium.

Firms and climate change:a review of carbon risk in corporate finance

This paper provides an overview of financial economics-based research on carbon risk with an emphasis on corporate finance.In the corporate finance literature,carbon risk refers to the impact of society’s transition to a lowcarbon economy on firm value due to tightening regulations,changing consumer preferences,reputational damage,etc.We focus on the links between carbon risk and different firm performance factors,such as firm risk,cost of capital,financial performance,firm value,and corporate decisions.Although research on carbon risk is still emerging in the corporate finance field,the amount of literature on this topic has been increasing,especially in the last 2 years.We find that some results are robust,while others are mixed.This indicates that conflicting hypotheses still exist,leading to a need for more in-depth exploration.

Risk identification and regulatory system design for the carbon market

Currently,the global carbon trading systems are fragmented and belong to different governments or are under the jurisdiction of different regions,resulting in a series of new problems,such as how to link dispersed trading systems,how to compare the emission reduction of various markets and other issues.Since the development of the international carbon market is relatively immature with uncertain life expectancy and volatility during its short history,and there is a lack of quantitative data on the long-term record,the market could provide few risk management tools.Meanwhile,with the launches of China's regional carbon trading pilots in seven provinces since 2013 and combined with the national voluntary emission trading system,carbon trading will become an important mechanism for China in achieving its emission reduction target.In the first stage,the carbon finance market is at least faced with mechanism design risks,market supply risks and compliance risks.Therefore,to secure the development of the carbon market and for public interest,relevant government departments of China should identify the risks facing the market and should make the basic principles and goals,such as ensuring effective trading and pricing mechanisms to avoid fraud and price manipulation,and balancing transparency and confidentiality of information.Consequently,the governments should develop a comprehensive carbon finance regulatory system covering regulatory legislation,regulatory institutions and their authorities,regulatory scope as well as regulatory objects.

Risk Assessment of Carbon Sequestration for Terrestrial Ecosystems in China

Climate change will alter the capacity of carbon sequestration,and the risk assessment of carbon sequestration for terrestrial ecosystems will be helpful to the decision-making for climate change countermeasures and international climate negotiations.Based on the net ecosystem productivity of terrestrial ecosystems simulated by Atmosphere Vegetation Integrated Model,each grid of the risk criterion was set by time series trend analysis.Then the risks of carbon sequestration of terrestrial ecosystems were investigated.The results show that,in the IPCCSRES-B2 climate scenario,climate change will bring risks of carbon sequestration,and the high-risk level will dominate terrestrial ecosystems.The risk would expand with the increase of warming degree.By the end of the long-term of this century,about 60% of the whole country will face the risk;Northwest China,mountainous areas in Northeast China,middle and lower reaches plain of Yangtze River areas,Southwest China and Southeast China tend to be extremely vulnerable.Risk levels in most regions are likely to grow with the increase of warming degree,and this increase will mainly occur during the near-term to mid-term.Northwest China will become an area of high risks,and deciduous coniferous forests,temperate mixed forests and desert grassland tend to be extremely vulnerable.

Lower limit of thermal maturity for the carbonization of organic matter in marine shale and its exploration risk

Based on the drilling data of the Silurian Longmaxi Formation in the Sichuan Basin and periphery, SW China, the Ro lower limits and essential features of the carbonization of organic matter in over-high maturity marine shale were examined using laser Raman, electrical and physical property characterization techniques. Three preliminary conclusions are drawn:(1) The lower limit of Ro for the carbonization of Type I-II1 organic matter in marine shale is 3.5%; when the Ro is less than 3.4%, carbonization of organic matter won't happen in general; when the Ro ranges from 3.4% to 3.5%, non-carbonization and weak carbonization of organic matter may coexist; when the Ro is higher than 3.5%, the carbonization of organic matter is highly likely to take place.(2) Organic-rich shale entering carbonization phase have three basic characteristics: log resistivity curve showing a general "slender neck" with low-ultralow resistance response, Raman spectra showing a higher graphite peak, and poor physical property(with matrix porosity of only less than 1/2 of the normal level).(3) The quality damage of shale reservoir caused by the carbonization of organic matter is almost fatal, which primarily manifests in depletion of hydrocarbon generation capacity, reduction or disappearance of organic pores and intercrystalline pores of clay minerals, and drop of adsorption capacity to natural gas. Therefore, the lower limit of Ro for the carbonization of Type I-II1 organic matter should be regarded as the theoretically impassable red line of shale gas exploration in the ancient marine shale formations. The organic-rich shale with low-ultralow resistance should be evaluated effectively in area selection to exclude the high risk areas caused by the carbonization of organic matter. The target organic-rich shale layers with low-ultralow resistance drilled during exploration and development should be evaluated on carbonization level of organic matter, and the deployment plan should be adjusted according to the evaluation results in time.

基于EVT-Copula-CoVaR的石油市场对中国碳市场风险溢出效应研究

石油是全球碳排放的重要来源,而碳排放权交易市场是节能减排的有效工具,将石油市场与碳市场进行关联分析,特别是考虑到中国特殊的制度设计问题,测度国内外石油市场对中国不同碳市场的风险溢出效应受到理论界和实务界的关注与重视。本文在考虑到市场极端风险的基础上,选取2014年4月2日至2019年10月31日国内外石油市场与5个交易较活跃的中国碳市场的碳价格数据作为研究样本,构建EVT-Copula-CoVaR模型量化分析石油市场对中国碳市场的风险溢出效应。研究表明,国内外石油市场的风险事件对各碳市场均产生正向溢出效应,且对比不同碳市场可发现同一置信水平下石油市场对碳市场的风险溢出强度从大到小依次为:湖北、广东、深圳、北京、上海。同时,对比国内外石油市场发现,国外石油市场对碳市场的风险溢出效应更大。研究结论有助于丰富和延伸我国碳市场与石油市场之间的联动机制研究,同时对我国碳市场的稳定发展及风险管理具有重要的意义。

中国碳排放权交易机制与实践:基于微观企业股权资本成本的视角

碳排放权交易市场作为企业减排增效的重要机制,引发了资本市场投资者对企业碳排放问题的关注,进而可能影响投资者对企业的风险评估与价值判断。手工整理中国各试点碳市场的控排企业名录发现:碳排放权交易机制显著提升了控排企业的权益资本成本,主要机制为投资者碳风险关注,但该市场机制存在明显的效应边界。进一步发现,当碳市场的初始配额实施部分竞价拍卖和非履约主体交易更为活跃,产品市场竞争程度更高和企业所在城市空气污染更为严重,以及企业非财务绩效表现更好时,碳排放权交易机制对企业权益资本成本的提升作用更为明显。研究结论有助于更为全面的评估我国碳市场建设的经济后果,为该低碳环保政策的持续推广提供理论依据与经验参考。

中国实现碳中和:降碳风险的识别与应对

中国实现碳中和目标必将引发能源利用模式的深度变革,重塑各领域生产生活方式既是一场系统性变革,也面临微观与宏观的转型风险。从系统视角阐释中国零碳转型过程中降碳风险及其风险的系统传导机制,并基于低碳/零碳/负碳技术创新及转化的“研发—应用—推广”的阶段过程,解析了零碳转型过程中风险因素的传导路径;指出技术成熟度、产品绿色溢价、资产沉没成本、技术应用及供应链保障五类主要降碳风险,评估其对中国碳中和目标实现和社会经济发展的影响。提出中国需从系统视角慎重把握目标实现过程中的降碳风险,从政策引领、监测核算、科技人才、创新环境、国际合作等多方面共同发力和协同推进,全局把控设计应对政策措施,应深入实施低碳技术领跑者政策、加强碳排放核算与碳减排风险评估、积极培育壮大低碳技术研发力量、营造有利于低碳创新的社会环境。

基于模糊交叉熵与TOPSIS的碳审计风险评估

审计在促进“双碳”目标实现的过程中发挥着重要的监督与评价作用,有效规范了企业的碳排放行为,推动了企业生产方式的绿色转型。当前,我国的碳审计发展尚处起步阶段,存在着诸如制度不健全、碳数据核算困难、碳审计人才缺乏等一系列问题,多种因素的叠加使得碳审计工作面临着极大的风险与挑战。在文献梳理的基础上,本文依托传统风险导向审计理论,首先从环境风险、固有风险、控制风险、检查风险四个层面建立碳审计风险评估指标体系;其次,借助模糊交叉熵和TOPSIS算法构架新型的碳审计风险评估模型,探索碳审计风险评估模型的运行步骤,明晰风险评估模型中的决策方案排序策略;再次,通过对特定案例的深入分析,阐释模糊交叉熵和TOPSIS风险评估模型在碳审计风险评估中的具体应用流程,全方位探究风险评估模型中各类运算结果的分析方法;最后,针对碳审计所面临的各种风险,相应地从碳审计模式设计、双碳大数据中心构建、人才队伍建设三个方面提出管理碳审计检查风险的措施与建议。有关研究思路和结论能够为审计组织如何发现碳审计存在的关键风险因素、衡量碳审计风险水平、评价和控制碳审计风险提供理论支持。

低碳技术发展产业链风险评估

“双碳”目标下,低碳技术将迎来大规模发展,传统技术被加速替代,会对产业链相关行业原材料、资金、劳动力需求以及污染物排放等产生直接影响。因此,亟须提前评估低碳技术发展可能引发的关键要素失衡以及部分行业环境影响攀升风险,以避免威胁产业链安全,制约“双碳”目标实现。为此,选取未来有望大规模普及的电解水制氢、电化学储能、低碳发电技术、电弧炉炼钢技术及多通道燃煤等10类低碳技术作为研究对象,评估2024—2030年各项技术大规模普及对产业链相关行业原材料、资金、劳动力需求和污染物排放的综合影响,识别潜在风险。结果表明:钴、铜、镍、锂、锰等关键矿产资源对外依存度高且未来需求增长快,面临短缺风险相对更大;发展光伏发电技术对资金的需求最大;电化学储能技术普及引致的劳动力需求增长最快;关键低碳技术产业链上游的电气机械和器材制造业将面临严峻的资金和劳动力供给不足风险;煤炭采选业将面临一定的劳动力过剩风险;金属矿采选业将面临较大的环境污染上升风险。并进一步针对技术、组件、上中下游行业可能面临的风险提出了应对策略。

基于信息不对称与风险规避的低碳闭环供应链定价决策研究

为确定闭环供应链的产品定价和碳减排率,同时考虑制造商的风险规避行为和零售回收运营成本信息的不对称性,构建以制造商为主导的Stackelberg博弈模型,分析对比信息对称和信息不对称两种情况下的最优决策,利用数值分析验证结论。研究表明:产品的销售价格、批发价格、碳减排率及制造商效用都将随着制造商风险规避程度的提高而降低,而市场需求与零售商效用将增加;当零售商谎报回收运营成本时,相较于坦白回收运营成本,产品转移价格与零售商效用均有所提升,产品回收价格、废旧产品回收量和制造商效用则降低,且风险规避和信息不对称均对碳减排产生消极影响。

考虑风险和碳排放因素的集装箱多式联运路径选择

为给在风险和碳排放不同程度影响下多式联运决策者提供较优的联运选择方案,分别从运输和中转两个角度分析构建联运过程中的风险评价指标体系,通过采用贝叶斯网络模型测算风险发生概率,进而定量分析得到风险成本。考虑双碳目标下多式联运碳排放条件,将多式联运过程中产生的碳排放内化为碳税成本。以此为基础,构建最小化物流成本、风险成本和碳税成本的集装箱多式联运路径优化模型。考虑到联运决策者差异化需求,确定相应目标因素的不同敏感程度和时间约束,设计混合算法进行求解。案例结果表明,可以根据决策者差异化需求灵活调整模型敏感度大小,为多式联运决策者提供较优的联运选择方案。

考虑条件风险价值和阶梯碳交易的综合能源系统优化调度

为进一步提升综合能源系统环境效益,减少新能源出力不确定性所带来的潜在风险,提出了计及条件风险价值(conditional value at risk,CVaR)以及阶梯碳交易的综合能源系统优化调度模型。考虑到系统风电和光伏出力不确定性可能带来的影响,采用条件风险价值量度不确定性带来的潜在风险,并将碳捕获技术、电转气设备以及阶梯式碳交易机制引入系统调度模型,构建了综合考虑系统运行成本和碳交易成本的优化调度目标函数,由于所建立模型为混合整数规划问题,采用CPLEX求解器进行求解,设置4种场景进行验证分析,算例表明所提模型可有效减少二氧化碳排放,在兼顾经济性和环境性的同时引入CVaR,可避免由于忽略风光不确定性所带来的较为乐观的调度结果,使系统最终调度结果更为合理。

风险规避下考虑碳期货的工程机械再制造企业生产决策研究

在碳限额与交易政策下,研究碳期货对风险规避型工程机械再制造企业生产决策的影响。分别构建无碳期货情形和考虑碳期货情形下风险规避型再制造企业的生产决策模型;利用Kuhn-Tucker条件对模型求解,比较两种情形下的最优解;通过算例分析碳期货和风险规避系数对产量、企业效用、消费者剩余和碳排放总量的影响。研究表明,在企业风险规避程度较高情形下,引入碳期货总是会增加新品产量和总产量,而再制品产量,在完全再制造策略下随之增加,部分再制造策略下随之减少。此外,企业风险规避程度较高时,考虑碳期货情形下的企业效用、消费者剩余和碳排放总量均高于不考虑碳期货情形。

ESG表现对商业银行盈利能力的影响

基于2012—2021年我国37家上市商业银行的季度数据,使用因子分析法构建了商业银行盈利能力指标,利用基本回归模型实证检验了ESG表现对商业银行盈利能力的影响,并通过构建中介效应模型探索了ESG表现影响商业银行盈利能力的路径。结果表明:良好的ESG表现可以通过降低商业银行的风险来提高其盈利能力。又通过异质性分析发现,良好的ESG表现能明显通过降低城市商业银行风险来提高盈利能力。

转型金融:内涵、框架与未来展望

随着应对气候变化和经济低碳转型成为全球共识,各国纷纷提出碳排放控制目标以及净零时间表。传统的绿色金融无法满足碳密集型企业的转型需求,导致各国距离实现净零目标存在巨大的资金缺口,转型金融应运而生,并逐渐受到人们的广泛关注。从转型金融的概念出发,阐述转型金融在优化资源配置和管理转型风险方面的功能作用,并结合国际市场实践明确转型金融的发展前景。通过阐释转型金融发展的逻辑机理,对比分析国际上主流的转型融资方法,形成转型金融发展框架的五大核心要素。为此,今后应加强顶层政策体系的协同与约束力度、统一和完善转型金融的界定标准,并积极开展转型金融相关的理论创新。

融合MD&A多维度语义的企业碳减排信用风险预警研究

本文以2011~2022年制造型企业为例,将创新性、前瞻性、风险性等10种MD&A语义指标引入基于机器学习算法构建的碳减排信用风险预警模型中,探究引入前后模型预测效果的变化,并使用SHAP可解释法揭示预警模型决策逻辑过程。研究发现:(1)MD&A语义指标可显著提升碳减排信用风险预警模型的预测效果,如P_(i)、CV_(i)评估指标的提升幅度、降低幅度分别在1%~11%、0.0029~0.1944。而相较于语义指标,碳减排信用指标对模型预测效果提升更为明显;(2)总体碳减排信用风险预警效果上,XGBoost模型最佳,其次是RF和SVM模型,LR模型最差;(3)净语调1、创新性、风险性是影响碳减排信用风险的关键语义指标。当净语调1、创新性指标增大时,模型预测为正常企业的概率增加;当风险性指标增大时,模型预测为违约企业的概率增加。

基于元素分析的污泥焚烧处置综合性评估

污泥的无害化处置和资源化利用是目前社会关注的重点,对污泥泥质的综合性评估是污泥处置和利用的前提。采用8个地区的出厂污泥,基于元素分析结果,综合考虑其碳排放量和风险性,对污泥“焚烧+灰渣利用”处置方式进行综合性评估。污泥的工业分析发现地区1、7、8污泥中的干基低位发热量均值分别为11.60、10.39和12.04 MJ/kg,有机物含量均值为53.98%、51.23%和54.97%,发热量和有机成分含量较高,发热量和有机成分存在显著正相关关系(P<0.05)。而地区1、2、6污泥的重金属含量较高,8个地区的污泥浸出液中镍、铜、锌所占比例较大,3种元素之和约为总体的90%。从碳排放和风险性分析可得,地区1、7、8的碳补偿量分别为958.59、909.08和963.39 kgCO 2/t,碳补偿量较大,总碳排放量较小,但地区1污泥在采用制砖、水泥熟料处置时综合污染指数分别为0.72和0.71,在污染警戒范围(0.7~1.0)内。结果表明,地区1、7、8的出厂污泥宜采用“焚烧+灰渣利用”处置方式,但地区1污泥处置时需关注重金属污染风险。污泥的元素分析能为污泥的焚烧处置提供科学性指导。