SYSTEM SIMULATION AND RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT OF CHINESE CARBON SEQUESTRATION MARKET

This study builds a simulation of Chinese carbon sequestration market(CSM) based on the Swarm platform and complex adaptive system(CAS) theory.The simulation results represent that the total assets and profits of the carbon sequestration project(CSP) buyer and seller are steadily on the increase in the carbon trading maxket.The market regulatory efficiency is determined by the market investment and the improvement of regulation policy.Furthermore,the real sample simulation of Sichuan Daduhe Forest CSP demonstrates that the profit of CSP traded in the CSM is higher than the profit from the transactions of outside exchange.It implies that establishing CSM is an effective way to improve the CSP business for investors and a positive action to response to global warming as well.Finally,this study applies an Analytic Hierarchy Process-Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation(AHPFCE) approach to evaluate the reliability of CSM simulation.It concludes that the CSM simulation is "more creditable",which indicates that the CSM simulation results can be used as a proxy to observe the market uncertainties.

Valuation of forest carbon sinks in China within the framework of the system of national accounts

To better promote forest resource management and strengthen the development of forest carbon sink marketization, this paper studied the accounting of forest carbon sinks from 2003 to 2008 based on a system of national accounts （SNA） and data from the latest forest resources inventory in China. The study calculated the value of forest carbon stocks at a total of RMB 817.13 × 10^9 yuan in 2003 and RMB 839.93×10^9 yuan in 2008, with an average annual increase of 0.55 % from an increase in physical carbon sinks. The total value of forest carbon sinks in 2003 and 2008 was RMB 26.73×10^9 yuan and RMB 29.77×10^9 yuan, respectively, with an average annual growth of 2.18 %. From 2003 to 2008, both stock and flow value of forest carbon sinks increased, but the total net flow value of carbon sinks decreased. The growth rate for the environmentally adjusted Gross Domestic Product （eaGDP） for China＇s forest carbon sinks was 17.23 %, outstripping the average growth rate of 9.5 % for the GDP during the same period. The study alsoindicates that China＇s forest carbon sinks affects the GDP in the range of 0.25-0.26 %, and its economic potential is not relatively huge.