The international community has taken extensive actions to achieve carbon neutrality and sustainable development with the intensification of global warming and climate change.China has also carried out a long-term lay...The international community has taken extensive actions to achieve carbon neutrality and sustainable development with the intensification of global warming and climate change.China has also carried out a long-term layout,setting the goal of achieving a carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060.In 2021,with the official launch of a unified national carbon emissions trading market,China’s nationwide carbon emissions trading kicked off.Carbon emission trading is an important policy tool for China’s carbon peak and carbon-neutral action and an essential part of the country’s promotion of a comprehensive green transformation of the economy and society.This study uses a VAR(Vector Autoregressive)model to analyze the influencing factors of the Beijing carbon emissions trading price from January 2014 to December 2019.The study found that coal prices have the most significant impact on Beijing’s carbon emissions trading prices.Oil prices,industrial development indexes,and AQI(Air Quality Index)impacted Beijing’s carbon emissions trading prices.In contrast,natural gas prices and economic indexes have the most negligible impact.These findings will help decision-makers determine a reasonable price for carbon emissions trading and contribute to the market’s healthy development.展开更多
In this paper,the authors take Hubei carbon trading market prices as a sample,and select 27 variables from five aspects:International carbon market prices,energy prices,the macroeconomic situation,exchange rate factor...In this paper,the authors take Hubei carbon trading market prices as a sample,and select 27 variables from five aspects:International carbon market prices,energy prices,the macroeconomic situation,exchange rate factors and climate environment.The authors construct the elliptical approximate factor model and use a robust two step method based on multivariate Kendall's Tau matrix to extract common factors,identify the influencing factors of carbon prices,make out-of-sample forecasting of carbon prices,and compare with the prediction based on the historical mean of carbon trading market prices.The results show that the prediction of carbon trading market prices using elliptical approximate factor model is more accurate than the prediction based on the historical mean of carbon trading market prices.Among them,fossil energy prices,international carbon prices and climate environment are important influencing factors of carbon trading prices.展开更多
基金financially supported by the National Natural Sciences Foundation of China(NSFC-71672009.71972011).
文摘The international community has taken extensive actions to achieve carbon neutrality and sustainable development with the intensification of global warming and climate change.China has also carried out a long-term layout,setting the goal of achieving a carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060.In 2021,with the official launch of a unified national carbon emissions trading market,China’s nationwide carbon emissions trading kicked off.Carbon emission trading is an important policy tool for China’s carbon peak and carbon-neutral action and an essential part of the country’s promotion of a comprehensive green transformation of the economy and society.This study uses a VAR(Vector Autoregressive)model to analyze the influencing factors of the Beijing carbon emissions trading price from January 2014 to December 2019.The study found that coal prices have the most significant impact on Beijing’s carbon emissions trading prices.Oil prices,industrial development indexes,and AQI(Air Quality Index)impacted Beijing’s carbon emissions trading prices.In contrast,natural gas prices and economic indexes have the most negligible impact.These findings will help decision-makers determine a reasonable price for carbon emissions trading and contribute to the market’s healthy development.
基金supported by the National Social Science Fund of China under Grant No.21BTJ072。
文摘In this paper,the authors take Hubei carbon trading market prices as a sample,and select 27 variables from five aspects:International carbon market prices,energy prices,the macroeconomic situation,exchange rate factors and climate environment.The authors construct the elliptical approximate factor model and use a robust two step method based on multivariate Kendall's Tau matrix to extract common factors,identify the influencing factors of carbon prices,make out-of-sample forecasting of carbon prices,and compare with the prediction based on the historical mean of carbon trading market prices.The results show that the prediction of carbon trading market prices using elliptical approximate factor model is more accurate than the prediction based on the historical mean of carbon trading market prices.Among them,fossil energy prices,international carbon prices and climate environment are important influencing factors of carbon trading prices.
