Identification of High-Risk Scenarios for Cascading Failures in New Energy Power Grids Based on Deep Embedding Clustering Algorithms

At present,the proportion of new energy in the power grid is increasing,and the random fluctuations in power output increase the risk of cascading failures in the power grid.In this paper,we propose a method for identifying high-risk scenarios of interlocking faults in new energy power grids based on a deep embedding clustering(DEC)algorithm and apply it in a risk assessment of cascading failures in different operating scenarios for new energy power grids.First,considering the real-time operation status and system structure of new energy power grids,the scenario cascading failure risk indicator is established.Based on this indicator,the risk of cascading failure is calculated for the scenario set,the scenarios are clustered based on the DEC algorithm,and the scenarios with the highest indicators are selected as the significant risk scenario set.The results of simulations with an example power grid show that our method can effectively identify scenarios with a high risk of cascading failures from a large number of scenarios.

Robustness of community networks against cascading failures with heterogeneous redistribution strategies

Network robustness is one of the core contents of complex network security research.This paper focuses on the robustness of community networks with respect to cascading failures,considering the nodes influence and community heterogeneity.A novel node influence ranking method,community-based Clustering-LeaderRank(CCL)algorithm,is first proposed to identify influential nodes in community networks.Simulation results show that the CCL method can effectively identify the influence of nodes.Based on node influence,a new cascading failure model with heterogeneous redistribution strategy is proposed to describe and analyze node fault propagation in community networks.Analytical and numerical simulation results on cascading failure show that the community attribute has an important influence on the cascading failure process.The network robustness against cascading failures increases when the load is more distributed to neighbors of the same community instead of different communities.When the initial load distribution and the load redistribution strategy based on the node influence are the same,the network shows better robustness against node failure.

Cascading failures in congested complex networks with feedback

In this article, we investigate cascading failures in complex networks by introducing a feedback. To characterize the effect of the feedback, we define a procedure that involves a self-organization of trip distribution during the process of cascading failures. For this purpose, user equilibrium with variable demand is used as an alternative way to determine the traffic flow pattern throughout the network. Under the attack, cost function dynamics are introduced to discuss edge overload in complex networks, where each edge is assigned a finite capacity （controlled by parameter α）. We find that scale-free networks without considering the effect of the feedback are expected to be very sensitive to α as compared with random networks, while this situation is largely improved after introducing the feedback.

Recovery of coupled networks after cascading failures

With society＇s increasing dependence on critical infrastructure such as power grids and communications systems, the robustness of these systems has attracted significant attention.Failure of some nodes can trigger a cascading failure, which completely fragments the network, necessitating recovery efforts to improve robustness of complex systems. Inspired by real-world scenarios, this paper proposes repair models after two kinds of network failures, namely complete and incomplete collapse. In both models, three kinds of repair strategies are possible, including random selection（RS）, node selection based on single network node degree（SD）, and node selection based on double network node degree（DD）. We find that the node correlation in each of the two coupled networks affects repair efficiency. Numerical simulation and analysis results suggest that the repair node ratio and repair strategies may have a significant impact on the economics of the repair process. The results of this study thus provide insight into ways to improve the robustness of coupled networks after cascading failures.

Analysis of cascading failures of power cyber-physical systems considering false data injection attacks

This study considers the performance impacts of false data injection attacks on the cascading failures of a power cyber-physical system,and identifies vulnerable nodes.First,considering the monitoring and control functions of a cyber network and power flow characteristics of a power network,a power cyber-physical system model is established.Then,the influences of a false data attack on the decision-making and control processes of the cyber network communication processes are studied,and a cascading failure analysis process is proposed for the cyber-attack environment.In addition,a vulnerability evaluation index is defined from two perspectives,i.e.,the topology integrity and power network operation characteristics.Moreover,the effectiveness of a power flow betweenness assessment for vulnerable nodes in the cyberphysical environment is verified based on comparing the node power flow betweenness and vulnerability assessment index.Finally,an IEEE14-bus power network is selected for constructing a power cyber-physical system.Simulations show that both the uplink communication channel and downlink communication channel suffer from false data attacks,which affect the ability of the cyber network to suppress the propagation of cascading failures,and expand the scale of the cascading failures.The vulnerability evaluation index is calculated for each node,so as to verify the effectiveness of identifying vulnerable nodes based on the power flow betweenness.

Model for cascading failures with adaptive defense in complex networks

This paper investigates cascading failures in networks by considering interplay between the flow dynamic and the network topology, where the fluxes exchanged between a pair of nodes can be adaptively adjusted depending on the changes of the shortest path lengths between them. The simulations on both an artificially created scale-free network and the real network structure of the power grid reveal that the adaptive adjustment of the fluxes can drastically enhance the robustness of complex networks against cascading failures. Particularly, there exists an optimal region where the propagation of the cascade is significantly suppressed and the fluxes supported by the network are maximal. With this understanding, a costless strategy of defense for preventing cascade breakdown is proposed. It is shown to be more effective for suppressing the propagation of the cascade than the recent proposed strategy of defense based on the intentional removal of nodes.

Cascading failures of overload behaviors using a new coupled network model between edges

With the development of network science,the coupling between networks has become the focus of complex network research.However,previous studies mainly focused on the coupling between nodes,while ignored the coupling between edges.We propose a novel cascading failure model of two-layer networks.The model considers the different loads and capacities of edges,as well as the elastic and coupling relationship between edges.In addition,a more flexible load-capacity strategy is adopted to verify the model.The simulation results show that the model is feasible.Different networks have different behaviors for the same parameters.By changing the load parameters,capacity parameters,overload parameters,and distribution parameters reasonably,the robustness of the model can be significantly improved.

Numerical investigation of hydro-morphodynamic characteristics of a cascading failure of landslide dams

A cascading failure of landslide dams caused by strong earthquakes or torrential rains in mountainous river valleys can pose great threats to people’s lives,properties,and infrastructures.In this study,based on the three-dimensional Reynoldsaveraged Navier-Stokes equations(RANS),the renormalization group(RNG)k-εturbulence model,suspended and bed load transport equations,and the instability discriminant formula of dam breach side slope,and the explicit finite volume method(FVM),a detailed numerical simulation model for calculating the hydro-morphodynamic characteristics of cascading dam breach process has been developed.The developed numerical model can simulate the breach hydrograph and the dam breach morphology evolution during the cascading failure process of landslide dams.A model test of the breaches of two cascading landslide dams has been used as the validation case.The comparison of the calculated and measured results indicates that the breach hydrograph and the breach morphology evolution process of the upstream and downstream dams are generally consistent with each other,and the relative errors of the key breaching parameters,i.e.,the peak breach flow and the time to peak of each dam,are less than±5%.Further,the comparison of the breach hydrographs of the upstream and downstream dams shows that there is an amplification effect of the breach flood on the cascading landslide dam failures.Three key parameters,i.e.,the distance between the upstream and the downstream dams,the river channel slope,and the downstream dam height,have been used to study the flood amplification effect.The parameter sensitivity analyses show that the peak breach flow at the downstream dam decreases with increasing distance between the upstream and the downstream dams,and the downstream dam height.Further,the peak breach flow at the downstream dam first increases and then decreases with steepening of the river channel slope.When the flood caused by the upstream dam failure flows to the downstream dam,it can produce a surge wave that overtops and erodes the dam crest,resulting in a lowering of the dam crest elevation.This has an impact on the failure occurrence time and the peak breach flow of the downstream dam.The influence of the surge wave on the downstream dam failure process is related to the volume of water that overtops the dam crest and the erosion characteristics of dam material.Moreover,the cascading failure case of the Xiaogangjian and Lower Xiaogangjian landslide dams has also been used as the representative case for validating the model.In comparisons of the calculated and measured breach hydrographs and final breach morphologies,the relative errors of the key dam breaching parameters are all within±10%,which verify the rationality of the model is applicable to real-world cases.Overall,the numerical model developed in this study can provide important technical support for the risk assessment and emergency treatment of failures of cascading landslide dams.

Risk-Balanced Routing Strategy for Service Function Chains of Cyber-Physical Power System Considering Cross-Space Cascading Failure

Cyber-physical power system(CPPS)has significantly improved the operational efficiency of power systems.However,cross-space cascading failures may occur due to the coupling characteristics,which poses a great threat to the safety and reliability of CPPS,and there is an acute need to reduce the probability of these failures.Towards this end,this paper first proposes a cascading failure index to identify and quantify the importance of different information in the same class of communication services.On this basis,a joint improved risk-balanced service function chain routing strategy(SFC-RS)is proposed,which is modeled as a robust optimization problem and solved by column-and-constraint generation(C-CG)algorithm.Compared with the traditional shortest-path routing algorithm,the superiority of SFC-RS is verified in the IEEE 30-bus system.The results demonstrate that SFC-RS effectively mitigates the risk associated with information transmission in the network,enhances information transmission accessibility,and effectively limits communication disruption from becoming the cause of cross-space cascading failures.

MODELING AND SIMULATION OF THE VULNERABILITY OF INTERDEPENDENT POWER-WATER INFRASTRUCTURE NETWORKS TO CASCADING FAILURES

Critical infrastructures are becoming increasingly interdependent and vulnerable to cascading failures. Existing studies have analyzed the vulnerability of interdependent networks to cascading failures from the static perspective of network topology structure. This paper develops a more realistic cascading failures model that considers the dynamic redistribution of load in power network to explore the vulnerability of interdependent power-water networks. In this model, the critical tolerance threshold is originally proposed to indicate the vulnerability of network to cascading failures. In addition, some key parameters that are important to network vulnerability are identified and quantified through numerical simulation. Results show that cascading failures can be prevented when the values of tolerance parameter are above a critical tolerance threshold. Otherwise interdependent networks collapse after attacking a critical fraction of power nodes. Interdependent networks become more vulnerable with the increase in interdependence strength, which implies the importance of protecting those interconnected nodes to reduce the consequences of cascading failures. Interdependent networks are most vulnerable under high-load attack, which shows the significance of protecting high-load nodes.

Interpreting the vulnerability of power systems in cascading failures using multi-graph convolutional networks

Analyzing the vulnerability of power systems in cascading failures is generally regarded as a challenging problem. Although existing studies can extract some critical rules, they fail to capture the complex subtleties under different operational conditions. In recent years, several deep learning methods have been applied to address this issue. However, most of the existing deep learning methods consider only the grid topology of a power system in terms of topological connections, but do not encompass a power system’s spatial information such as the electrical distance to increase the accuracy in the process of graph convolution. In this paper, we construct a novel power-weighted line graph that uses power system topology and spatial information to optimize the edge weight assignment of the line graph. Then we propose a multi-graph convolutional network(MGCN) based on a graph classification task, which preserves a power system’s spatial correlations and captures the relationships among physical components. Our model can better handle the problem with power systems that have parallel lines, where our method can maintain desirable accuracy in modeling systems with these extra topology features. To increase the interpretability of the model, we present the MGCN using layer-wise relevance propagation and quantify the contributing factors of model classification.

Exploring the impacts of major events on the systemic risk of the international energy market

This study examines the systemic risk caused by major events in the international energy market(IEM)and proposes a management strategy to mitigate it. Using the tail-event driven network(TENET)method, this study constructed a tail-risk spillover network(TRSN) of IEM and simulated the dynamic spillover tail-risk process through the cascading failure mechanism. The study found that renewable energy markets contributed more to systemic risk during the Paris Agreement and the COVID-19pandemic, while fossil energy markets played a larger role during the Russia-Ukraine conflict. This study identifies systemically important markets(SM) and critical tail-risk spillover paths as potential sources of systemic risk. The research confirms that cutting off the IEM risk spillover path can greatly reduce systemic risk and the influence of SM. This study offers insights into the management of systemic risk in IEM and provides policy recommendations to reduce the impact of shock events.

Load-redistribution strategy based on time-varying load against cascading failure of complex network

Cascading failure can cause great damage to complex networks, so it is of great significance to improve the network robustness against cascading failure. Many previous existing works on load-redistribution strategies require global information, which is not suitable for large scale networks, and some strategies based on local information assume that the load of a node is always its initial load before the network is attacked, and the load of the failure node is redistributed to its neighbors according to their initial load or initial residual capacity. This paper proposes a new load-redistribution strategy based on local information considering an ever-changing load. It redistributes the loads of the failure node to its nearest neighbors according to their current residual capacity, which makes full use of the residual capacity of the network. Experiments are conducted on two typical networks and two real networks, and the experimental results show that the new load-redistribution strategy can reduce the size of cascading failure efficiently.

Reliability Evaluation of Machine Center Components Based on Cascading Failure Analysis

In order to rectify the problems that the com- ponent reliability model exhibits deviation, and the evalu- ation result is low due to the overlook of failure propagation in traditional reliability evaluation of machine center components, a new reliability evaluation method based on cascading failure analysis and the failure influ- enced degree assessment is proposed. A direct graph model of cascading failure among components is established according to cascading failure mechanism analysis and graph theory. The failure influenced degrees of the system components are assessed by the adjacency matrix and its transposition, combined with the Pagerank algorithm. Based on the comprehensive failure probability function and total probability formula, the inherent failure proba- bility function is determined to realize the reliability evaluation of the system components. Finally, the method is applied to a machine center, it shows the following： 1） The reliability evaluation values of the proposed method are at least 2.5% higher than those of the traditional method; 2） The difference between the comprehensive and inherent reliability of the system component presents a positive correlation with the failure influenced degree ofthe system component, which provides a theoretical basis for reliability allocation of machine center system.

An LCOR model for suppressing cascading failure in weighted complex networks

Based on the relationship between capacity and load, cascading failure on weighted complex networks is investigated, and a load-capacity optimal relationship （LCOR） model is proposed in this paper. Compared with three other kinds of load- capacity linear or non-linear relationship models in model networks as well as a number of real-world weighted networks including the railway network, the airports network and the metro network, the LCOR model is shown to have the best robustness against cascading failure with less cost. Furthermore, theoretical analysis and computational method of its cost threshold are provided to validate the effectiveness of the LCOR model. The results show that the LCOR model is effective for designing real-world networks with high robustness and less cost against cascading failure.

Cascading failure in the wireless sensor scale-free networks

In the practical wireless sensor networks （WSNs）, the cascading failure caused by a failure node has serious impact on the network performance. In this paper, we deeply research the cascading failure of scale-free topology in WSNs. Firstly, a cascading failure model for scale-free topology in WSNs is studied. Through analyzing the influence of the node load on cascading failure, the critical load triggering large-scale cascading failure is obtained. Then based on the critical load, a control method for cascading failure is presented. In addition, the simulation experiments are performed to validate the effectiveness of the control method. The results show that the control method can effectively prevent cascading failure.

Analysis of overload-based cascading failure in multilayer spatial networks

Many complex networks in real life are embedded in space and most infrastructure networks are interdependent,such as the power system and the transport network.In this paper,we construct two cascading failure models on the multilayer spatial network.In our research,the distance l between nodes within the layer obeys the exponential distribution P(l)~exp(-l/ζ),and the length r of dependency link between layers is defined according to node position.An entropy approach is applied to analyze the spatial network structure and reflect the difference degree between nodes.Two metrics,namely dynamic network size and dynamic network entropy,are proposed to evaluate the spatial network robustness and stability.During the cascading failure process,the spatial network evolution is analyzed,and the numbers of failure nodes caused by different reasons are also counted,respectively.Besides,we discuss the factors affecting network robustness.Simulations demonstrate that the larger the values of average degree<k>,the stronger the network robustness.As the length r decreases,the network performs better.When the probability p is small,asζdecreases,the network robustness becomes more reliable.When p is large,the network robustness manifests better performance asζincreases.These results provide insight into enhancing the robustness,maintaining the stability,and adjusting the difference degree between nodes of the embedded spatiality systems.

Failure analysis of unmanned autonomous swarm considering cascading effects

In this paper, we focus on the failure analysis of unmanned autonomous swarm(UAS) considering cascading effects. A framework of failure analysis for UAS is proposed.Guided by the framework, the failure analysis of UAS with crash fault agents is performed. Resilience is used to analyze the processes of cascading failure and self-repair of UAS. Through simulation studies, we reveal the pivotal relationship between resilience, the swarm size, and the percentage of failed agents.The simulation results show that the swarm size does not affect the cascading failure process but has much influence on the process of self-repair and the final performance of the swarm.The results also reveal a tipping point exists in the swarm. Meanwhile, we get a counter-intuitive result that larger-scale UAS loses more resilience in the case of a small percentage of failed individuals, suggesting that the increasing swarm size does not necessarily lead to high resilience. It is also found that the temporal degree failure strategy performs much more harmfully to the resilience of swarm systems than the random failure. Our work can provide new insights into the mechanisms of swarm collapse, help build more robust UAS, and develop more efficient failure or protection strategies.

Protection Strategies against Cascading Failure for Power Systems of Ring Network

Power grid vulnerability is a key issue with large blackouts, causing power disruption for millions of people. The complexity of power grid, together with excessive number of components, makes it difficult to be modeled. Currently, researchers use complex networks to model and study the performance of power grids. In fact, power grids can be modeled into a complex network by making use of ring network topology, with substations and transmission lines denoted as nodes and edges, respectively. In this paper, three protection schemes are proposed and their effectiveness in protecting the power network under high and low-load attacks is studied. The proposed schemes, namely, Cascaded Load Cut-off (CLC), Cascaded Load Overflow (CLO) and Adaptive-Cascaded Load Overflow (A-CLO), improve the robustness of the power grids, i.e., decrease the value of critical tolerance. Simulation results show that CLC and CLO protection schemes are more effective in improving the robustness of networks than the A-CLO protection scheme. However, the CLC protection scheme is effective only at the expense that certain percentage of the network will have no power supply. Thus, results show that the CLO protection scheme dominates the other protection schemes, CLC and A-CLO, in terms of the robustness of the network, improved with the precise amount of load cut-off determined.

Cascading failure in multilayer networks with dynamic dependency groups＊

The cascading failure often occurs in real networks. It is significant to analyze the cascading failure in the complex network research. The dependency relation can change over time. Therefore, in this study, we investigate the cascading fail- ure in multilayer networks with dynamic dependency groups. We construct a model considering the recovery mechanism. In our model, two effects between layers are defined. Under Effect 1, the dependent nodes in other layers will be disabled as long as one node does not belong to the largest connected component in one layer. Under Effect 2, the dependent nodes in other layers will recover when one node belongs to the largest connected component. The theoretical solution of the largest component is deduced and the simulation results verify our theoretical solution. In the simulation, we analyze the influence factors of the network robustness, including the fraction of dependent nodes and the group size, in our model. It shows that increasing the fraction of dependent nodes and the group size will enhance the network robustness under Effect 1. On the contrary, these will reduce the network robustness under Effect 2. Meanwhile, we find that the tightness of the network connection will affect the robustness of networks. Furthermore, setting the average degree of network as 8 is enough to keep the network robust.