Factors Influencing the Number of Rabies Cases in Children in China

To understand the epidemic situation and factors influencing rabies cases in children in China, we obtained an overview of the current epidemic based on individual data of rabies cases in children and a descriptive analysis was carried on the prevalence and related factors. The results showed that the rabies cases in children accounted for 21.3% of the total number of rabies cases in China, 97.0% of these cases occurred in rural areas, they were mainly caused by dogs （81.5%）, and were primarily level Ill exposure （47.7%）. More than half of the cases were not treated with wound care, vaccination rate was extremely low （15.7%）, and only 5.9% of cases were injected with antibodies. Furthermore, 25.4% of cases adopted incorrect treatments such as extruding bleed and wound closure, cases vaccinated with 5 injections acco- unted for only 22.5%. In conclusion, the prevalence of rabies cases in children in China remains a serious concern, the number and immune status of dogs in rural areas, and knowledge of rabies by risk populations should be considered in future rabies prevention and control programs.

EWMA control chart based on its first hitting time and coronavirus alert levels for monitoring symmetric COVID-19 cases

Objective:To define the alert levels for the total number of COVID-19 cases derived by using quantile functions to monitor COVID-19 outbreaks via an exponentially weighted moving-average(EWMA)control chart based on the first hitting time of the total number of COVID-19 cases following a symmetric logistic growth curve.Methods:The cumulative distribution function of the time for the total number of COVID-19 cases was used to construct a quantile function for classifying COVID-19 alert levels.The EWMA control chart control limits for monitoring a COVID-19 outbreak were formulated by applying the delta method and the sample mean and variance method.Samples were selected from countries and region including Thailand,Singapore,Vietnam,and Hong Kong to generate the total number of COVID-19 cases from February 15,2020 to December 16,2020,all of which followed symmetric patterns.A comparison of the two methods was made by applying them to a EWMA control chart based on the first hitting time for monitoring the COVID-19 outbreak in the sampled countries and region.Results:The optimal first hitting times for the EWMA control chart for monitoring COVID-19 outbreaks in Thailand,Singapore,Vietnam,and Hong Kong were approximately 280,208,286,and 298 days,respectively.Conclusions:The findings show that the sample mean and variance method can detect the first hitting time better than the delta method.Moreover,the COVID-19 alert levels can be defined into four stages for monitoring COVID-19 situation,which help the authorities to enact policies that monitor,control,and protect the population from a COVID-19 outbreak.

ENDOMYOCARDIAL FIBROSIS IN CHINA

To introduce the epidemical, pathological, and clinical characteristics as well as the diagnostic and therapeutical experiences of endomyocardial fibrosis(EMF) in China. [WT5”BX] Data sources.[WT5”BZ]A CMBdisc search was done of the Chinese language literature published from January 1983 through June 1997 about EMF and/or restrictive cardiomyopathy. A manual search was then done for other contributions, including abstracts, between January 1965 and June 1997. [WT5”BX] Results. [WT5”BZ]Eighty seven Chinese cases of EMF were collected in this paper. There were 49 men and 38 women, with a mean age of 28±13 years(range, 8 to 68 years). The distribution of the cases is mainly in the south of China. Combined right and left ventricular disease occurs in 48 percent of cases, with pure right ventricular involvement occurring in 42 percent and pure left ventricular involvement in the remaining 10 percent of patients who are examined postmortem. The diagnosis of EMF was confirmed in 21 cases at autopsy, and in 66 cases by echocardiography, angiocardiography, and/or endomyocardial biopsy which showed the characteristic changes. Clinically, right sided disease is the commonest variety. Endocardiectomy and tricuspid(n=7) or mitral(n=1) valves replacement have been performed in 8 patients. There were 2 operative deaths. Six patients had a satisfactory recovery postoperatively and living well in the follow up duration. [WT5”BX] Conclusion.

On SIR epidemic models with generally distributed infectious periods： Number of secondary cases and probability of infection

Recently, Clancy [SIR epidemic models with general infectious period distribution, Statist. Prob. Left. 85 （2014） 1-5] has shown how SIR epidemics in which individuals＇ infection periods are not necessarily exponentially distributed may be modeled in terms of a piecewise-deterministic Markov process （PDMP）. In this paper, we present a more detailed description of the underlying PDMP, from which we analyze the population transmission number and the infection probability of a certain susceptible individual.