Constructing an assessment index system for strategic risk management in coal science and technology enterprises

Coal occupies a dominant position in China's national economy and is an essential energy source for future industrial development.To inform the efficient and sustainable development of the coal industry,this paper analyzes the sources of strategic risk for coal science and technology enterprises using 3 firstclass indicators,10 second-level indicators,and 37 observation points established through the existing research literature and experience.Moreover,in accordance to the obtained initial index data,the selected indicators have been tested and screened using reliability and membership degree analyses to remove redundant variables,avoid juxtaposition of risk factors at different levels,and reduce the influence of some tiny risk factors for enterprise strategic risk.Then,factor analysis of external environment factor sub-scale was carried out.Factors are extracted according to a standard characteristic value greater than 1.Variables with high coefficients are classified into one factor category;and finally,3 first-class indicators,8 second-level indicators,and 37 observation points are reconstructed.

底线思维与科技审度:高风险社会治理的要义与进路

当前AI大爆发及其应对乏力表明,西方科技发展模式的缺陷与人类社会的脆弱及学界研究的薄弱,更加凸显人类风险防控机制存在诸多漏洞及其引发的科技危机与人类安全危机,已把人类带入高风险社会。用底线思维与刘大椿提出的科技审度予以破解:底线思维解决非共识下的议而不决;科技审度和审度思维所特有的执两用中、包容互补、多元开放、整合升级、共识决策等,可提供有效的治理对策。科技转型是治理科技风险的根本解决之道,科技审度可发挥重要的启发与引导作用,以构建真善美的新型科技发展模式,加快世界科学中心建设,据此总结出高风险社会治理的要义与进路,以作为科技风险治理的研究指南。

前沿科技的深层次伦理风险及其应对

当前,生命科技和人工智能等前沿科技的伦理风险日益引起国际社会的高度关切,我国的科技伦理治理正在走上制度化发展之路。为了更好地推进我国科技伦理治理工作,我们必须切实把握作为科技伦理治理重点的前沿科技的特征,揭示其所呈现出的一系列深层次伦理风险,从而进一步加强对科技社会系统的结构性特征的理解,探索和重构风险认知的底层逻辑。其一,充分认识新兴科技驱动的科技社会系统的革命性变化,以此理解前沿科技深层次伦理风险的结构性实质。其二,立足前沿科技伦理治理的开放性实践,将科技伦理的风险认知和规范视为相关群体不断更新的集体认知和工作假设。其三,强调前沿科技风险认知的系统性与可塑性,赋予科技和创新更大的可能性空间。由此,我们可以得出树立科学认知的伦理边界、设置合理的伦理法律门槛、形成具有开放性和整体性的治理机制、增进公众科技伦理素养以及遵循相称性原则等面向深层次科技伦理风险的预控和应对之道。

新兴技术伦理风险协同治理研究

新兴技术在造福人类社会的同时也引发了诸多伦理风险问题,防范和化解新兴技术伦理风险成为科技创新领域的重点内容,须高度重视和切实加强新兴技术伦理风险治理研究,以高效治理范式促进新兴技术良性发展和科技创新事业向善而行。通过阐释新兴技术伦理风险概念内涵和基本特征,剖析新兴技术伦理风险具体样态、生成缘由和管理问题,运用协同治理范式,从治理理念、治理主体、治理手段、治理过程和治理范围出发,提出新兴技术伦理风险协同治理实施路径,为有效应对科技创新领域伦理风险问题,着力提高新兴技术伦理风险治理效能,大力促进国家治理能力现代化提供理论指导和政策支持。

知识共生产框架下科技伦理治理主体的基础性功能与其对应的实现方式

发达的经济不仅为科技创新带来了肥沃的土壤,同时也带来了科技伦理方面的隐患。在面对越来越严峻的科技伦理治理挑战时,政府、专家和公众等主体如何达成合作来共同打开科技伦理治理的“黑箱”,是学界关注的重点。选择科技伦理治理中政府、专家和公众这3类具有代表性的重要主体,基于科技伦理治理的内容,对“知识共生产”的概念进行总结,在此基础上,进一步建构科技伦理治理主体的知识共生产研究框架,分析科技伦理治理主体的基础性功能与其对应的实现方式。研究认为,政府(治理知识型生产者)、专家(专业知识型生产者)和公众(助力知识型生产者)共同参与到科技伦理风险问题的治理过程,分别具有政策架构支持、知识储备运用和外在助力推动的基础性功能,并分别通过政策支持实现方式与宏观架构治理方式、知识储备作用方式与知识实践运用方式、现实动因推动方式与外在助力参与方式来发挥政府知识的治理作用、专家知识的专业作用和公众知识的辅助作用,从而实现知识共生产,进而推动科技伦理风险问题的有效解决。进一步提出,未来相关研究可以从框架、视角和理念三方面深入展开。

众包情报的四象限模型在科技安全风险预警中的应用

[研究目的]自维基百科产生以来,美国情报界开始重视众包情报,并运用众包情报开展情报搜集和技术创新。分析美国近年来众包情报运用案例,为众包情报运用于我国科技安全风险预警提供新视角和新启发。[研究方法]该文运用众包四象限理论构建科技安全风险预警模型,剖析典型众包情报案例,归纳总结其在情报搜集、技术创新和助推共同体文化方面的价值和挑战,分析科技安全风险预警中的众包情报需求。[研究结论]基于我国科技情报预警情境,构建众包情报任务场景,并从维护科技安全的情报保障、国产软硬件使用的数据支持、前沿科技治理的情报感知以及科技文化认同的情报赋能等四方面提出众包情报在科技安全风险预警中的应用路径。

生成式人工智能的科技安全风险与防范

生成式人工智能作为科技变革和产业赋能的重要引擎,凭借其强大的自然语言处理能力而具备广泛的应用前景。生成式人工智能具有以下科技安全风险:数字霸权和科技资源垄断等国家安全风险;算法黑箱和算法歧视等算法安全风险;人机互动过程人的自主决策意识丧失的科技伦理风险;跨境流动过程产生的数据和知识产权侵权风险。为构建可信任的生成式人工智能,应共同打造多元共治的生成式人工智能安全风险治理局面,形成风险识别及防范的逻辑闭环。在国家层面应以系统安全观为战略指引,分阶段稳步推进生成式人工智能科技安全立法。在行业层面应以场景理论为导向,分情景开展生成式人工智能的风险识别及其防控。在企业层面应将风险意识植入企业内部文化,探索多模块多层次的风险治理模式,落实企业合规责任。在用户层面应自觉以权利意识和自主决策为基本遵循。

人工智能深度伪造技术的法律风险防控

作为生成式人工智能的深度伪造技术给社会带来了新的风险与挑战。从类型学上看,深度伪造技术同时引发了基于个体权利谱系的微观法律风险、基于市场经济秩序的中观法律风险和基于国家公共安全的宏观法律风险,并依此形成了多样化和梯次性的法律风险格局。为有效化解风险,各国存在“自下而上型”分散治理模式、“自上而下型”垂直治理模式以及“多方参与型”合作治理模式。我国可通过“软法+硬法+算法”相结合的综合治理模式,实现对前述法律风险的有效防控:在软法层面,完善科技伦理制度,明确科技伦理的实体规范和程序规范;在硬法层面,通过“风险预防”与“风险控制”,强化风险防控的刚性约束;在算法层面,实现从样本数据采集到深度伪造内容发布的全过程技术监督,发挥技术的规范功能。

新时代中国特色科技伦理体系的构建及其价值意蕴

中国特色科技伦理体系建设是我国科技治理体系和治理能力现代化的重要要求。当前,世界科技创新进入新阶段,新兴科技伦理问题日益凸显,科技伦理治理成为国际社会共同关注的议题之一,这是建设中国特色科技伦理体系的现实逻辑基础。构建新时代中国特色科技伦理体系要坚持以马克思主义科技伦理思想为理论指导,以科技活动发展规律为客观遵循,从理论与实践两个维度深入分析其基本内容,从防范科技伦理治理风险,强化科技伦理教育培训机制,完善科技伦理审查监督体制,加强科技伦理国际合作四个方面入手,不断提升我国科技伦理治理能力和水平,进而保障科技创新活动行稳致远,促进科技更好造福人类。

科创板上市公司的信用风险体系构建、评价与组态分析——基于DBN-SEM-fsQCA方法

注册制逐步推广与高技术型产业特性使得科创板上市公司的信用风险评价日趋复杂。研究通过DBN-SEM-fsQCA的方法组合,实现对科创板上市公司信用风险体系的构建、评价与组态分析。研究结果表明:基于DBN选取的关键财务指标能够准确反映科创板上市公司的信用风险情况;在SEM视角下,盈利能力与信用风险联系密切,偿债能力、成长能力、营运能力与信用风险显著相关;基于组态视角,科创板上市公司的信用风险模式主要分为成长导向型、成长缺失与营运主导型、盈利与成长互补型、盈利导向型四种类型。为此,科创板上市公司可以通过扩大产业规模来获取市场份额优势,或者增加技术研发投入来取得超额利润,以及联合城市区位条件来实现信用风险的多层次把控。

一体化国家战略体系和能力建设中的安全风险研究

巩固提高一体化国家战略体系和能力是中国加快国防和军事现代化建设的重要路径,在当前中美大国战略竞争加剧且国际政治环境动荡的背景下,一体化国家战略能力建设中的国防科技产业安全面临新的风险与挑战。中国国防科技工业在国际政治互动中形成的高度集中的市场结构、大国竞争状态下的非公主体低可靠性,以及一体化实践中的信息扩散与泄密,共同组成了国防科技工业一体化战略能力建设的核心风险要素。通过新兴领域科技主体培育优化国防科技工业产业组织形态,基于风险识别、风险评估和风险处理措施管控非公主体风险,构建系统、完善的信息化保密管理体系,提升关于中国国防现代化建设的国际话语权,是当前化解和治理一体化国家战略能力建设的安全风险的重要方式。

情报视角下山西省科技安全风险防控策略研究

科技创新是发展的关键,已成为保障国家安全的重要战略支撑。维护科技安全已成为落实国家总体安全观的重中之重,防范化解科技安全风险意义重大。新形势下,国家安全的各个领域都迫切需要情报的支撑,情报的支撑作用在科技安全风险防控中尤其凸显。在情报视角下,围绕山西省部分产业科技创新能力不足、关键核心技术受制于人以及新技术快速发展和应用等方面,梳理了山西省科技领域可能面临的风险和挑战,并提出一系列增强科技安全风险防范化解能力的对策建议,以期为科技安全保驾护航。

Reflections on a Science and Technology Agenda for 21st Century Disaster Risk Reduction Based on the Scientific Content of the 2016 UNISDR Science and Technology Conference on the Implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–203

The first international conference for the post-2015 United Nations landmark agreements(Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030, Sustainable Development Goals, and Paris Agreement on Climate Change) was held in January 2016 to discuss the role of science and technology in implementing the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. The UNISDR Science and Technology Conference on the Implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 aimed to discuss and endorse plans that maximize science's contribution to reducing disaster risks and losses in the coming 15 years and bring together the diversity of stakeholders producing and using disaster risk reduction(DRR) science and technology. This article describes the evolution of the role of science and technology in the policy process building up to the Sendai Framework adoption that resulted in an unprecedented emphasis on science in the text agreed on by 187 United Nations member states in March 2015 and endorsed by the United Nations General Assembly in June 2015. Contributions assembled by the Conference Organizing Committee and teams including the conference concept notes and the conference discussions that involved a broad range of scientists and decision makers are summarized in this article. The conference emphasized how partnerships and networks can advance multidisciplinary research and bring together science, policy, and practice; how disaster risk is understood, and how risks are assessed and early warning systems are designed; what data, standards, and innovative practices would be needed to measure and report on risk reduction; what research and capacity gaps exist and how difficulties in creating and using science for effective DRR can be overcome. The Science and Technology Conference achieved two main outcomes:(1) initiating the UNISDR Science and Technology Partnership for the implementation of the Sendai Framework; and(2) generating discussion and agreement regarding the content and endorsement process of the UNISDR Science and Technology Road Map to 2030.

Science and Technology Networks: A Helping Hand to Boost Implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030?

The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 underlines the importance of Science and Technology(S&T) and S&T networks for effective disaster risk reduction(DRR). The knowledge of existing S&T networks and their exact role in DRR,however, is limited. This opinion piece initiates a discussion on the role of S&T networks in the implementation of the Sendai Framework. The article highlights that current practice is oriented towards a narrative that emphasizes the potential of S&T for DRR and stresses a collaborative approach delivered through networks. But a true understanding of whether and how S&T networks can mobilize and enable S&T for DRR is missing. We call for a review of existing S&T networks for DRR and the development of good practice guidelines on S&T networks for DRR. This review should include knowledge on how to overcome common challenges and maximize the benefits, along with a framework for successful evaluation of such networks.This knowledge would provide much needed guidance for existing and emerging networks.

Thirty Years of Science,Technology,and Academia in Disaster Risk Reduction and Emerging Responsibilities

The 1990 initiation of the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction marked its 30th year in 2019.The three decades since then have seen significant developments in science and technology and their incorporation into the decision making in the field of disaster risk reduction.The disasters that have occurred during that time have enhanced the importance of the field,and new research and innovations have evolved.This article summarizes this evolution through the review of specific milestones.While the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 provides opportunities for synergies with the sustainable development agenda,the science and technology communities have also changed their roles from advisory to co-designing and co-delivering solutions.Higher education plays an important role in developing new generations of professionals,and the role of thematic incubation in higher education institutions is highlighted along with the development of the professional society in disaster risk reduction.The evolution from Society 4.0(information age)to Society 5.0 will see an enhanced role of the technology-driven approach in disaster risk reduction,while traditional knowledge and indigenous technologies still remain valid for society.Scientists and science communities need to be more sensitive to changing the“last mile”concept to“first mile”thinking with respect to the users’needs and perspectives.

Global Community of Disaster Risk Reduction Scientists and Decision Makers Endorse a Science and Technology Partnership to Support the Implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030

At the first gathering of its kind on the role of science in implementing the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030,over 750 scientists,policymakers,business people,and practitioners met in Geneva from January 27–29,2016.The UNISDR Science and Technology Conference on the Implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 fea-

Nuclear Energy and Its History: Past Consequences, Present Inadequacies and a Perspective for Success

An attempt is made to locate nuclear technology within a logical context considering history, risks, societal catastrophes and perspectives: the need is identified for a new direction in the exploitation in order to restore the role in energy production. We depict the situation coming from a marvelous history of discoveries started at the beginning of the XX century;heroes are recalled who made possible something that is inconceivable today: design, construction and production of electricity in a few years;that history was tainted by intentional nuclear explosions, i.e. the original sin that we are now paying. Then, we attempt to show that the societal risk is an inherent part of the civilization. Restoring the public trust (towards nuclear fission technology) by matching nuclear safety with the current technological status and advancers in risk assessment is the key objective. The “independent assessment”, or a principle for the exploitation of nuclear energy already stated in the 50’s of the previous century, shall then re-appear. This is used to erect the signpost for a “dynamic barricade” to further reduce the risk of operation of nuclear reactors and to match the design with current technological capabilities and with the frontiers of the research.

ChatGPT技术嵌入智慧司法的伦理风险及其法治应对

中国式司法公正的标准是情理法圆融。实现司法的法律效果与社会效果的统一是司法的社会治理目标与司法人民性的必然要求。围绕着司法公正的合理性标准展开讨论,以合理是合法的必要条件为基本命题,通过剖析ChatGPT的技术本质及其融入智慧司法场景的具体情形,揭示司法技术化趋势由于单向强化司法技术引发了伦理风险。ChatGPT作为人工智能技术的集大成者依然无法克服技术不能在个案中实现情理法圆融的缺陷。在司法技术化趋势下,既要以科技伦理审查控制算法与数据取用,也要提升法官的司法技艺,后者是在当前人工智能技术条件下实现情理法圆融的最为重要法治路径。尤其应明确法官主体与社会效能原则,培养法官对具体案情与社会运行机理的感知能力,使法官在把握具体案情的基础上,融贯法律知识、法律方法以及对特定主体合理行为的代入式判断和理解。

生成型人工智能的刑事风险与防治策略——以ChatGPT为例

生成型人工智能在通过程序生成具有创造性的新内容方面实现了新的突破,同时蕴含诸多的刑事风险。生成型人工智能的刑事风险包括不当获取数据信息的刑事风险、生成违法犯罪信息的刑事风险、使用者不当利用生成内容的刑事风险。规制生成型人工智能的刑事风险时,刑法应有所为有所不为,始终保持内在的谦抑,坚守不阻碍科技发展的底线。为此,应采用分级治理策略:通过生成型人工智能研发企业刑事合规计划,探索生成型人工智能所涉违法犯罪的预防性治理模式;加强科技监管手段在行政监管手段中的运用比重,通过有效的行政规制手段降低生成型人工智能刑事风险现实化的可能性;当刑事合规计划与行政监管手段失灵时,才可考虑采用轻重程度适当的刑法规制手段。实施分级治理策略,有利于督促生成型人工智能研发企业从源头上降低风险,并充分发挥行政监管与行政前置法“过滤”犯罪的作用,实现遏制技术风险和促进科技发展的双重目的。

热辐射与灰分耦合对矿区表层土壤Cr、As、Cu和Zn赋存及浸出影响机制研究

为了解热辐射与灰分耦合对矿区表层土壤理化性质及其重金属Cr、As、Cu、Zn赋存和浸出毒性的影响,采用锥量仪在不同热辐射温度(400℃、600℃、750℃)及生物质负载量(1 kg/m^(2)、3 kg/m^(2)、5 kg/m^(2))下开展室内燃烧试验,对样品理化性质、Cr、As、Cu、Zn质量比和形态进行分析,并通过TCLP法对重金属潜在的浸出风险进行评估。结果表明:热辐射与灰分耦合作用显著改变表层土壤的理化性质。其次,耦合作用使得表层土壤Cr、As、Cu和Zn的总质量比增加,说明生物质燃烧产生的热辐射与灰分是影响矿区林地表层土壤重金属浓度的重要因素。此外,耦合作用使得Cr有效态的比例由50%下降到40%,As有效态的比例由14%增加到22%,对Cu和Zn有效态的作用则不明显,说明其对表层土壤Cr、As的迁移性分别起到了抑制和促进作用。TCLP试验结果表明,仅土壤受热或生物质与土壤共同燃烧都会使土壤中Cr、As、Cu和Zn的浸出水平增大;Cr、As、Cu和Zn浸出质量比最高分别为0.88 mg/kg、0.81 mg/kg、654.13 mg/kg和35.58 mg/kg,其中Cu、Zn均超出监管值。