安全生产事故往往由多组织交互、多因素耦合造成,事故原因涉及多个组织。为预防和遏制多组织生产安全事故的发生,基于系统理论事故建模与过程模型(Systems-Theory Accident Modeling and Process,STAMP)、24Model,构建一种用于多组织事...安全生产事故往往由多组织交互、多因素耦合造成,事故原因涉及多个组织。为预防和遏制多组织生产安全事故的发生,基于系统理论事故建模与过程模型(Systems-Theory Accident Modeling and Process,STAMP)、24Model,构建一种用于多组织事故分析的方法,并以青岛石油爆炸事故为例进行事故原因分析。结果显示:STAMP-24Model可以分组织,分层次且有效、全面、详细地分析涉及多个组织的事故原因,探究多组织之间的交互关系;对事故进行动态演化分析,可得到各组织不安全动作耦合关系与形成的事故失效链及管控失效路径,进而为预防多组织事故提供思路和参考。展开更多
Frequent occurrence of land expropriation disputes in rural areas of China has attracted attention of scholars to study causes. Most existing studies discuss causes from " structure- institution" level. In o...Frequent occurrence of land expropriation disputes in rural areas of China has attracted attention of scholars to study causes. Most existing studies discuss causes from " structure- institution" level. In other words,land expropriation disputes are caused by existing imperfect institutions,regulations,and policies. Such analysis model points institutional causes,but pays little attention to policy implementation process,especially the subjective initiative of parties concerned. This paper described a decade-long land expropriation dispute case in detail.Through description of event and process and survey of reasons of actors,it revealed factors resulting in occurrence and upgrade of dispute,and analyzed factors and their interactions with the aid of Smith Process Model.展开更多
With the rapid development of information technology,the cyberspace security problem is increasingly serious.Kinds of dynamic defense technology have emerged such as moving target defense and mimic defense.This paper ...With the rapid development of information technology,the cyberspace security problem is increasingly serious.Kinds of dynamic defense technology have emerged such as moving target defense and mimic defense.This paper aims to describe the architecture and analyze the performance of Cyberspace Mimic DNS based on generalized stochastic Petri net.We propose a general method of anti-attacking analysis.For general attack and special attack model,the available probability,escaped probability and nonspecial awareness probability are adopted to quantitatively analyze the system performance.And we expand the GSPN model to adjust to engineering practice by specifying randomness of different output vectors.The result shows that the proposed method is effective,and Mimic system has high anti-attacking performance.To deal with the special attack,we can integrate the traditional defense mechanism in engineering practice.Besides,we analyze the performance of mimic DNSframework based on multi-ruling proxy and input-output desperation,the results represent we can use multi ruling or high-speed cache servers to achieve the consistent cost of delay,throughput compared with single authorized DNS,it can effectively solve 10%to 20%performance loss caused by general ruling proxy.展开更多
The historical formation and development of the abandoned channel of the Yellow River is reviewed and its causes of formation and present condition of prevention and control are analyzed in this paper. Based on this a...The historical formation and development of the abandoned channel of the Yellow River is reviewed and its causes of formation and present condition of prevention and control are analyzed in this paper. Based on this analysis, some ideas about control, critical problems and countermeasures in the next period are proposed with two typical control models as examples. We suggest that in preventing and controlling the wind-drift sandy lands in the region, the emphasis should be to develop, with a greatly expanded effort, a recycling economy. This should realize a combination of two ideas, i.e. integrate combating desertification with a structural adjustment of agricultural and an increase in the income of farmers.展开更多
Root-cause identification plays a vital role in business decision making by providing effective future directions for the organizations.Aspect extraction and sentiment extraction plays a vital role in identifying the ...Root-cause identification plays a vital role in business decision making by providing effective future directions for the organizations.Aspect extraction and sentiment extraction plays a vital role in identifying the rootcauses.This paper proposes the Ensemble based temporal weighting and pareto ranking(ETP)model for Root-cause identification.Aspect extraction is performed based on rules and is followed by opinion identification using the proposed boosted ensemble model.The obtained aspects are validated and ranked using the proposed aspect weighing scheme.Pareto-rule based aspect selection is performed as the final selection mechanism and the results are presented for business decision making.Experiments were performed with the standard five product benchmark dataset.Performances on all five product reviews indicate the effective performance of the proposed model.Comparisons are performed using three standard state-of-the-art models and effectiveness is measured in terms of F-Measure and Detection rates.The results indicate improved performances exhibited by the proposed model with an increase in F-Measure levels at 1%–15%and detection rates at 4%–24%compared to the state-of-the-art models.展开更多
The multiple cause of death (MCOD) analysis is used to account for the full contribution of TB as a cause of death to South African mortality in 2008 that were coded using ICD10. Following a review of MCOD methods, a ...The multiple cause of death (MCOD) analysis is used to account for the full contribution of TB as a cause of death to South African mortality in 2008 that were coded using ICD10. Following a review of MCOD methods, a sufficient set of variables for use in MCOD and a new method of quantifying the severity of each cause of death are proposed. The results show that a total of 86,818 (14.3% of all deaths) were TB related, and within all deaths due to natural underlying causes, 86,373 (16.1%) were TB related. Furthermore, 42,581 (7.9%) were due to TB only, 6.0% had TB as an underlying cause along with other contributory causes and 2.0% had TB as a contributory cause. TB was mentioned as the underlying cause of death in 74,863 certificates or 13.9% of deaths due to natural underlying causes. Further analysis using multinomial baseline logit models, reveals that the relative odds of death in any demographic group compared with death in the baseline categories depend on the severity level of TB considered. It is proposed that the severity measure should be adopted when studying the contribution of all main causes of death to total mortality.展开更多
While achieving successes,the neoliberalist economic development model hasalso given rise to a series of grave problems,especially problem of social injusticeand polarization,which have begun to threaten Latin America...While achieving successes,the neoliberalist economic development model hasalso given rise to a series of grave problems,especially problem of social injusticeand polarization,which have begun to threaten Latin America’s social security andstability.展开更多
文摘安全生产事故往往由多组织交互、多因素耦合造成,事故原因涉及多个组织。为预防和遏制多组织生产安全事故的发生,基于系统理论事故建模与过程模型(Systems-Theory Accident Modeling and Process,STAMP)、24Model,构建一种用于多组织事故分析的方法,并以青岛石油爆炸事故为例进行事故原因分析。结果显示:STAMP-24Model可以分组织,分层次且有效、全面、详细地分析涉及多个组织的事故原因,探究多组织之间的交互关系;对事故进行动态演化分析,可得到各组织不安全动作耦合关系与形成的事故失效链及管控失效路径,进而为预防多组织事故提供思路和参考。
基金Supported by Youth Foundation for Humanities and Social Science Research from the Ministry of Education(10YJC840078)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(SWU1209363&SWU1409319)
文摘Frequent occurrence of land expropriation disputes in rural areas of China has attracted attention of scholars to study causes. Most existing studies discuss causes from " structure- institution" level. In other words,land expropriation disputes are caused by existing imperfect institutions,regulations,and policies. Such analysis model points institutional causes,but pays little attention to policy implementation process,especially the subjective initiative of parties concerned. This paper described a decade-long land expropriation dispute case in detail.Through description of event and process and survey of reasons of actors,it revealed factors resulting in occurrence and upgrade of dispute,and analyzed factors and their interactions with the aid of Smith Process Model.
基金This work was supported by the specific issues of national cyberspace security(Grant No.2018YFB0804001)the Innovative Research Groups of the National key R&D plan(Grant No.2020YFB18040803).
文摘With the rapid development of information technology,the cyberspace security problem is increasingly serious.Kinds of dynamic defense technology have emerged such as moving target defense and mimic defense.This paper aims to describe the architecture and analyze the performance of Cyberspace Mimic DNS based on generalized stochastic Petri net.We propose a general method of anti-attacking analysis.For general attack and special attack model,the available probability,escaped probability and nonspecial awareness probability are adopted to quantitatively analyze the system performance.And we expand the GSPN model to adjust to engineering practice by specifying randomness of different output vectors.The result shows that the proposed method is effective,and Mimic system has high anti-attacking performance.To deal with the special attack,we can integrate the traditional defense mechanism in engineering practice.Besides,we analyze the performance of mimic DNSframework based on multi-ruling proxy and input-output desperation,the results represent we can use multi ruling or high-speed cache servers to achieve the consistent cost of delay,throughput compared with single authorized DNS,it can effectively solve 10%to 20%performance loss caused by general ruling proxy.
文摘The historical formation and development of the abandoned channel of the Yellow River is reviewed and its causes of formation and present condition of prevention and control are analyzed in this paper. Based on this analysis, some ideas about control, critical problems and countermeasures in the next period are proposed with two typical control models as examples. We suggest that in preventing and controlling the wind-drift sandy lands in the region, the emphasis should be to develop, with a greatly expanded effort, a recycling economy. This should realize a combination of two ideas, i.e. integrate combating desertification with a structural adjustment of agricultural and an increase in the income of farmers.
文摘Root-cause identification plays a vital role in business decision making by providing effective future directions for the organizations.Aspect extraction and sentiment extraction plays a vital role in identifying the rootcauses.This paper proposes the Ensemble based temporal weighting and pareto ranking(ETP)model for Root-cause identification.Aspect extraction is performed based on rules and is followed by opinion identification using the proposed boosted ensemble model.The obtained aspects are validated and ranked using the proposed aspect weighing scheme.Pareto-rule based aspect selection is performed as the final selection mechanism and the results are presented for business decision making.Experiments were performed with the standard five product benchmark dataset.Performances on all five product reviews indicate the effective performance of the proposed model.Comparisons are performed using three standard state-of-the-art models and effectiveness is measured in terms of F-Measure and Detection rates.The results indicate improved performances exhibited by the proposed model with an increase in F-Measure levels at 1%–15%and detection rates at 4%–24%compared to the state-of-the-art models.
文摘The multiple cause of death (MCOD) analysis is used to account for the full contribution of TB as a cause of death to South African mortality in 2008 that were coded using ICD10. Following a review of MCOD methods, a sufficient set of variables for use in MCOD and a new method of quantifying the severity of each cause of death are proposed. The results show that a total of 86,818 (14.3% of all deaths) were TB related, and within all deaths due to natural underlying causes, 86,373 (16.1%) were TB related. Furthermore, 42,581 (7.9%) were due to TB only, 6.0% had TB as an underlying cause along with other contributory causes and 2.0% had TB as a contributory cause. TB was mentioned as the underlying cause of death in 74,863 certificates or 13.9% of deaths due to natural underlying causes. Further analysis using multinomial baseline logit models, reveals that the relative odds of death in any demographic group compared with death in the baseline categories depend on the severity level of TB considered. It is proposed that the severity measure should be adopted when studying the contribution of all main causes of death to total mortality.
文摘While achieving successes,the neoliberalist economic development model hasalso given rise to a series of grave problems,especially problem of social injusticeand polarization,which have begun to threaten Latin America’s social security andstability.
