Urban growth scenario projection using heuristic cellular automata in arid areas considering the drought impact

Arid areas with low precipitation and sparse vegetation typically yield compact urban pattern,and drought directly impacts urban site selection,growth processes,and future scenarios.Spatial simulation and projection based on cellular automata(CA)models is important to achieve sustainable urban development in arid areas.We developed a new CA model using bat algorithm(BA)named bat algorithm-probability-of-occurrence-cellular automata(BA-POO-CA)model by considering drought constraint to accurately delineate urban growth patterns and project future scenarios of Urumqi City and its surrounding areas,located in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,China.We calibrated the BA-POO-CA model for the drought-prone study area with 2000 and 2010 data and validated the model with 2010 and 2020 data,and finally projected its urban scenarios in 2030.The results showed that BA-POO-CA model yielded overall accuracy of 97.70%and figure-of-merits(FOMs)of 35.50%in 2010,and 97.70%and 26.70%in 2020,respectively.The inclusion of drought intensity factor improved the performance of BA-POO-CA model in terms of FOMs,with increases of 5.50%in 2010 and 7.90%in 2020 than the model excluding drought intensity factor.This suggested that the urban growth of Urumqi City was affected by drought,and therefore taking drought intensity factor into account would contribute to simulation accuracy.The BA-POO-CA model including drought intensity factor was used to project two possible scenarios(i.e.,business-as-usual(BAU)scenario and ecological scenario)in 2030.In the BAU scenario,the urban growth dominated mainly in urban fringe areas,especially in the northern part of Toutunhe District,Xinshi District,and Midong District.Using exceptional and extreme drought areas as a spatial constraint,the urban growth was mainly concentrated in the"main urban areas-Changji-Hutubi"corridor urban pattern in the ecological scenario.The results of this research can help to adjust urban planning and development policies.Our model is readily applicable to simulating urban growth and future scenarios in global arid areas such as Northwest China and Africa.

Three-dimensional cellular automata based particle flow simulations of mechanical properties of talus deposit

Based on three-dimensional cellular automata （CA）, a new stochastic simulation model to simulate the microstructures and particle flow of talus deposit is proposed. Ill addition, an auto-modeling program CARS is developed, with which nunaerical simulations can be conducted conveniently. For the problem of simulating mechanical behaviors of talus deposit, spatial anangement or sphere shapes should be considered. In the new modeling method, four sphere anangement models are developed for the particle flow simulation of talus deposit. Numerical results show that the talus deposit has the mechanical characteristics of typical stress-strain curves, as other rock-like materials. The cohesion of talus deposit decreases with increasing rock content, while the internal friction angle increases with increasing rock contents. Finally, numerical simulation is verified with the results of field test.

Desertification evolution prediction for lake area of Minqin oasis based on integration of GIS and cellular automata

The Minqin oasis is surrounded on three sides by the Tengger Desert and the Badanjilin Desert, and it prevents these two deserts from converging. However, in recent years it has become the worst ecological environment in the Lake area due to deficient water resources, continual declines in the groundwater level and quality （increasing mineralization and salination）, which are causing in- creasing desertification. In this study, Landsat Thematic Mapper （TM） remote images from 1992, 1998, 2002, and 2006 of the Lake area of the Minqin oasis are interpreted to analyze the desertification evolution. A combination of an ArcObjects module and a cellular automata model is used to build a model simulating the desertification dynamics; the forecasting accuracy of this model is shown to reach up to 90%. The desertification situation in 2012 is forecasted by this model, and the results showed that, from 2006 to 2012, the green land area will be reduced by 999.92 hm2 （l.59 percent of the total oasis area）, the desertification land area will be reduced by 3,000.68 hrn2 （4.78 percent of the total oasis area）, and sand land area will increase by 4,000.6 hm2 （6.37 per- cent of the total oasis area）. The sand land is predicted to become more widespread, and more than 18% sand land will be distrib- uted in the center of green land in the Lake area. In other words, more and more abandoned green land （mined farm land） will be transformed into sand land, and this will intensify the desertification.

基于ANN-CA的外来入侵植物互花米草的扩散趋势预测研究

采用遥感技术手段对九段沙互花米草(Spartina alterniflora)信息提取与动态监测基础上,开展滨海地区互花米草入侵时空特征分析、入侵地区景观演变规律以及预测互花米草扩散趋势等研究对于沿海城市生态环境协调发展具有重要的意义。选取邻域因子、生态属性和地理属性等相关变量因子,耦合人工神经网络(ANN)与元胞自动机(CA),基于2015-2019年间九段沙互花米草与其他湿地景观类型数据构建ANN-CA模型,采用3层BP神经网络,在不断训练与校正与验证模型精度的基础上,对2019年九段沙区域互花米草进行模拟,采用Lee-Sallee形状指数来对比模拟分类结果与实际分类结果在空间分布层面的相似度,并进行相应的模型校正,在此基础上预测2025年九段沙互花米草扩散与群落分布格局,为互花米草的扩张趋势、景观演变以及分布扩散预测提供理论依据和科学基础。结果表明,1)1995-2025年间互花米草自从引种定居到不断扩张,所呈现的面积变化图近乎S型曲线,其中2015-2019年面积增长了847 hm^(2),2019-2025年面积增长了646 hm^(2),因此互花米草在九段沙自然保护区的动态扩散,分别为定居阶段、滞缓阶段、快速增长阶段以及缓慢增长阶段。2)2025年九段沙区域互花米草的扩张速率从趋势看已进入扩张的缓慢期,与前几年相比尽管有所增加,但趋势有所放缓。3)构建的ANN-CA模型能够较好地对九段沙自然保护区的植被演变进行模拟和预测。

基于CA的建筑工人不安全行为传染机制

为抑制建筑工人间不安全行为的传染,借鉴易感-暴露-感染-康复(SEIR)模型,引入行为跟随者、行为接触者、不安全行为传染者和安全行为者4类行为主体,描述建筑工人不安全行为传染过程;考虑到工人群体关系的复杂性,提出小世界网络上的元胞自动机(CA)传染模型,刻画不同行为主体行为状态转化规则;运用数值仿真方法,分析行为跟随方式、不安全行为传染者分布模式与抑制率对不安全行为传染的影响。结果表明:行为跟随者的不同跟随方式、不安全行为传染者的不同分布模式对不安全行为传染效果具有显著影响,抑制率与不安全行为传染效果负向相关,其中,综合跟随方式下的行为传染效果最为显著;小群体分散分布模式极大地扩大和强化不安全行为传染者的传染范围与能力;适度的抑制性措施能够有效抑制不安全行为传染。

Effects of rainy weather on traffic accidents of a freeway using cellular automata model

The aim of this work is to investigate the influence of rainy weather on traffic accidents of a freeway. The micro-scale driving behaviors in rainy weather and possible vehicle rear-end and sideslip accidents are analyzed. An improved CA model of two lanes one-way freeway is presented, where some vehicle accidents will occur when the necessary conditions are simultaneously satisfied. The characteristics of traffic flow under different rainfall intensities are discussed and the accident probabilities are analyzed via the simulation experiments by using variable speed limit （VSL） and incoming flow control. The results indicate that the measures are effective especially during heavy rainstorms or short-time heavy rainfall. According to different rainfall intensities, an appropriate strategy should be adopted in order to reduce the probability of vehicle accidents and enhance traffic flux as well.

A Vector-based Cellular Automata Model for Simulating Urban Land Use Change

Cellular Automata(CA) is widely used for the simulation of land use changes. This study applied a vector-based CA model to simulate land use change in order to minimize or eliminate the scale sensitivity in traditional raster-based CA model. The cells of vector-based CA model are presented according to the shapes and attributes of geographic entities, and the transition rules of vector-based CA model are improved by taking spatial variables of the study area into consideration. The vector-based CA model is applied to simulate land use changes in downtown of Qidong City, Jiangsu Province, China and its validation is confirmed by the methods of visual assessment and spatial accuracy. The simulation result of vector-based CA model reveals that nearly 75% of newly increased urban cells are located in the northwest and southwest parts of the study area from 2002 to 2007, which is in consistent with real land use map. In addition, the simulation results of the vector-based and raster-based CA models are compared to real land use data and their spatial accuracies are found to be 84.0% and 81.9%, respectively. In conclusion, results from this study indicate that the vector-based CA model is a practical and applicable method for the simulation of urbanization processes.

Station Model for Rail Transit System Using Cellular Automata

In this paper, we propose a new cellular automata model to simulate the railway traffic at station. Based on NaSch model, the proposed station model is composed of the main track and the siding track. Two different schemes for trains passing through station are considered. One is the scheme of ＂pass by the main track, start and stop by the siding track＂. The other is the scheme of ＂two tracks play the same role＂. We simulate the train movement using the proposed model and analyze the traffic flow at station. The simulation results demonstrate that the proposed cellular automata model can be successfully used for the simulations of railway traffic. Some characteristic behaviors of railway traffic flow can be reproduced. Moreover, the simulation values of the minimum headway are close to the theoretical values. This result demonstrates the dependability and availability of the proposed model.

A cellular automata model for simulating grain structures with straight and hyperbolic interfaces

A description of a mathematical algorithm for simulating grain structures with straight and hyperbolic interfaces is shown. The presence of straight and hyperbolic interfaces in many grain structures of metallic materials is due to different solidification conditions, in- eluding different solidification speeds, growth directions, and delaying on the nucleation times of each nucleated node. Grain growth is a complex problem to be simulated; therefore, computational methods based on the chaos theory have been developed for this purpose. Straight and hyperbolic interfaces are between columnar and equiaxed grain structures or in transition zones. The algorithm developed in this work involves random distributions of temperature to assign preferential probabilities to each node of the simulated sample for nucleation according to previously defined boundary conditions. Moreover, more than one single nucleation process can be established in order to gen- erate hyperbolic interfaces between the grains. The appearance of new nucleated nodes is declared in sequences with a particular number of nucleated nodes and a number of steps for execution. This input information influences directly on the final grain structure （grain size and dislribution）. Preferential growth directions are also established to obtain equiaxed and columnar grains. The simulation is done using rou- tines for nucleation and growth nested inside the main function. Here, random numbers are generated to place the coordinates of each new nucleated node at each nucleation sequence according to a solidification probability. Nucleation and growth routines are executed as a func- tion of nodal availability in order to know if a node will be part of a grain. Finally, this information is saved in a two-dimensional computa- tional array and displayed on the computer screen placing color pixels on the corresponding position forming an image as is done in cellular automaton.

Coupled Faults Analysis and Evaluation M ethods Based on Cellular Automata

The reliability analysis of coupled faults may be difficult due to its properties of multiple and intermittent. The challenge is to find the rule and depict of the cross-linking relationship by mathematical model. The method in this study was developed around the Cellular Automata( CA) with a novel neighborhood definition and the structure of network model to build the failure cellular automata. And the simulation of the coupled faults influence combined with the importance evaluation method of network node to find the most critical faults which were beneficial to improve the design,without consuming massive computational overhead.

船舶超大空间火灾环境下人员疏散模型

针对船舶超大空间火灾对人员疏散能力的影响难以量化问题,本文基于元胞自动机理论,构建了一种行人个体自主分析火灾环境下温度和能见度影响的疏散模型(cellular automata model considering visibility and temperature, CAVT)。CAVT模型采用Sigmoid函数和历史实验数据建立温度、能见度与人员运动能力的映射关系,基于FDS数值模拟结果建立火灾环境场对人员个体运动能力影响的时空耦合关系,使用熵值法计算温度场和能见度场在火灾环境场中的权重。以某客船超大空间为例开展研究分析,结果表明:火灾环境下人员疏散时间受火源功率影响较大,火源位置影响较小,出口宽度大于3 m,不影响疏散效率。与Pathfinder软件相比,CAVT模型可更准确模拟人员因高温和低能见度导致的运动能力的动态下降反馈。

强制流动对Mg–9%Al合金定向凝固组织演化的模拟研究

基于欧拉多相流技术与元胞自动机方法构建了镁合金凝固组织预测模型,研究了无流动、x方向流动和y方向流动三种条件下Mg–9%Al合金定向凝固过程中的成分和组织演化过程.研究结果表明,无流动作用时镁合金枝晶呈现互为60°夹角生长,并在凝固后期出现与一次枝晶呈60°夹角二次枝晶形貌,凝固组织具有密排六方(HCP)晶体结构特征,验证了该模型的可靠性.由于x方向的流动作用下,与无流动结果相比较,迎流方向枝晶生长较快并出现发达的二次枝晶形貌,研究表明由于枝晶前端排出的溶质受流动影响被运输到枝晶后端区域,从而使前端区域具有更大的过冷度,提升了凝固驱动力.由于y方向流动的存在,枝晶呈现不对称生长,其中部分枝晶生长方向偏转约3°,研究表明迎流枝晶前沿的溶质被运输并富集在其他枝晶生长区域,最终使其发生了生长偏转;进一步分析枝晶生长前沿的流场和成分分布信息发现,枝晶生长过程中流动u1∇c1引起的值在固液界面处的不对称分布是导致枝晶生长发生偏转的主要原因.

基于CA-Markov的河西走廊土地利用变化研究

基于河西走廊1990年、2000年土地利用矢量数据,通过空间叠加和构建土地利用分布与变化的1km-Grid数据集以研究20世纪90年代土地利用分布与变化的数量特征和空间格局特征,并运用马尔可夫模型和元胞自动机技术对2010年土地利用分布情景进行预测。研究表明:河西走廊以未利用土地和草地为主;20世纪90年代,耕地、城乡工矿居民用地增加,而林地、草地、水域和未利用土地减少;多种土地利用类型的开垦在区域土地利用变化中处于主导地位,其中"草地→耕地"和"未利用→耕地"2个变化类型的规模最显著。主要交通线与大的河流附近人类活动强烈,因而土地利用类型及变化类型比较多样,空间格局复杂。CA-Markov模型模拟结果表明2000～2010年间6个土地利用类型将保持原有的变化趋势和变化速率,因此,迫切需要加强对林地、草地和水域的保护,控制和阻止盲目开垦耕地的行为,推进退耕还林还草工程,促进区域生态环境质量的保护和改善。

基于MCE-CA的东莞市紧凑城市形态模拟

针对快速城市化引起的城市蔓延问题,利用多准则判断元胞自动机(MCE-CA)模型模拟紧凑的城市空间形态。该模型主要考虑城市发展区位和农业适宜性条件,通过AHP方法确定参数权重。以广东省东莞市为实验区,在准确模拟东莞市2001-2005年的实际城市形态的基础上预测了2010和2020年城市形态。进一步模拟了用地更为紧凑、优质农田损失更少的紧凑城市形态。通过比较发现,后者的城市形态避免了用地分散、凌乱的问题,也节约了更多的优质农田。

基于改进CA的矿区土地利用空间结构演变预测

利用矿区2002年、2006年两个年份的遥感影像,分析矿区土地利用空间结构,以此将土地利用类型分为无破坏、已破坏已复垦、已破坏待复垦、待破坏待复垦和其他类型5种类型。针对目前CA(Cellular Automata)存在的不足,提出一种基于空间动态数据挖掘和随机预测的矿区CA方法,对离散状态属性的预测和模拟建立了一种具有可操作性的细胞自动机预测方法,并运用该方法对某矿区2010年的土地利用空间结构进行了预测。实例表明此方法是有效可行的,并且该方法的结果可以为矿区土地利用规划提供准确、可靠的依据。

基于元胞自动机方法与欧拉多相流技术的激光沉积IN718组织形貌模拟

为研究激光沉积过程中沉积层微观枝晶外延生长及转向机制,基于欧拉多相流技术与元胞自动机方法相结合,建立了激光沉积IN718二维熔化凝固模型;获得了沉积层温度场、流场以及微观凝固组织的演变过程,对比了模拟与实验所得沉积层枝晶外延生长区厚度,分析了顶部枝晶转向的机制。结果表明:温度场与流场相互影响,模型对沉积层厚度预测误差约为7.0%。沉积层顶部和中部晶体织构取向不同,枝晶的生长方向更偏向于局部热梯度方向,在沉积层顶部,局部热梯度的方向接近水平方向,枝晶的生长方向与局部热梯度偏角较小,因此,形成平行于激光扫描方向的枝晶区。

磴口县景观格局AES-LPI-CA模型演化模拟

以内蒙古巴彦淖尔市磴口县为研究区,在LPI-CA-Markov模型的基础上构建AES-LPI-CA模型,利用人工内分泌系统(AES)调整元胞自动机邻域中中心元胞的转移概率,并基于磴口县2000年与2007年景观格局数据对县域2014年景观格局进行模拟,将该模型模拟结果与LPI-CA-Markov模型、CA-Markov模型的模拟结果进行对比,结果显示3种模型模拟结果的KIA(Kappa index of agreement,以2014年实际景观分布为参照)依次为0.823 6、0.785 5、0.768 2,AES-LPI-CA模型显示了较高模拟精度。

基于CA模型的城市边缘区土地利用演变模拟——以广州市花都区为例

研究目的:探索土地利用的多地类CA模拟方法,并掌握城市边缘区土地利用变化规律。研究方法:选取典型城市边缘区——广州市花都区为研究区域,利用C#语言结合ArcEngine GIS平台编程进行花都区土地利用演变CA模拟研究。以不同时间研究区土地利用图为基础数据,比较研究期内各地类的变化数量与方向以确定地类转换之间的优先级,并确定各地类的转换概率阈值。然后利用蒙特卡罗方法结合控制因素进行判断,最终确定元胞的转化状态。研究结果:模拟结果表明,2000—2005年间,新增建设用地分布在除北部山区以外的所有区域,但主要集中在城市中心区域,农用地主要分布在西南部和东北部,而且破碎化程度越来越高。在流向上,仍然有不少数量的农用地(主要为耕地和林地)转向建设用地。与实际情况相比,模拟的数量精度为84.8%,位置精度为71.3%。研究结论:研究结果表明此方法便于理解与操作,同时模拟精度较高。

基于形态学和坐标变换的二维CA图像处理技术研究

深入研究了一类二维细胞自动机(CA),提出了一种用于二值和多值图像处理的二维CA实现方法。对于二值图像,提出了类似于数学形态学腐蚀、膨胀的CA布尔逻辑规则;对于多值图像,采用坐标逻辑运算把图像分解成多个二值图像后用CA并行处理。所有的CA规则都可以用细胞神经网络(CNN)实现。最后,将这种方法用于图像滤波,获得了很好的实验结果。

CA法及其在材料介观模拟中的应用

元胞自动机(CA)是复杂体系的一种理想化模型,适合于处理难以用数学公式定量描述的复杂动态物理体系问题,如材料的组织演变等。本文概述了CA法的基本思想及原理,介绍了CA法的基本组成及特征,综述了其在材料介观模拟研究中的应用。研究表明,CA法在金属凝固结晶、再结晶及相变现象等材料介观尺度的组织模拟中表现出特有的优越性。