Shock Initiation Experiments with Modeling on a DNAN Based MeltCast Insensitive Explosive

2,4-dinitroanisole(DNAN)is a good replacement for 2,4,6-trinitrotoluene(TNT)in melt-cast explosives due to its superior insensitivity.With the increasing use of DNAN-based melt-cast explosives,the prediction of reaction violence and hazard assessment of the explosives subjected to shock is of great significance.This study investigated the shock initiation characteristics for a DNAN-based melt-cast explosive,DHFA,using the one-dimensional Lagrangian apparatus.The embedded manganin gauges in the apparatus record the pressure histories at four Lagrangian positions and show that shock-todetonation transition in DHFA needs a high input shock pressure.The experimental data are analyzed to calibrate the Ignition and Growth model.The calibration is performed using an objective function based on both pressure history and the arrival time of shock.Good agreement between experimental and calculated pressure histories indicates the high accuracy of the calibrated parameters with the optimization method.

ESTIMATORS AND SOME BEHAVIORS FORA PARTIALLY LINEAR MODEL WITH CENSORED DATA

This paper considers the local linear regression estimators for partially linear model with censored data. Which have some nice large-sample behaviors and are easy to implement. By many simulation runs, the author also found that the estimators show remarkable in the small sample case yet.

ESTIMATION FOR THE AYMPTOTIC VARIANCE OF PARAMETRIC ESTIMATES IN PARTIAL LINEAR MODEL WITH CENSORED

Consider tile partial linear model Y=Xβ+ g(T) + e. Wilers Y is at risk of being censored from the right, g is an unknown smoothing function on [0,1], β is a 1-dimensional parameter to be estimated and e is an unobserved error. In Ref[1,2], it wes proved that the estimator for the asymptotic variance of βn(βn) is consistent. In this paper, we establish the limit distribution and the law of the iterated logarithm for,En, and obtain the convergest rates for En and the strong uniform convergent rates for gn(gn).

A comparative single-pulse shock tube experiment and kinetic modeling study on pyrolysis of cyclohexane,methylcyclohexane and ethylcyclohexane

The pyrolysis of cyclohexane,methylcyclohexane,and ethylcyclohexane have been studied behind reflected shock waves at pressures of 5 and10 bar and at temperatures of 930-1550 K for 0.05%fuel diluted by Argon.A single-pulse shock tube(SPST)is used to perform the pyrolysis experiments at reaction times varying from 1.65 to 1.74 ms.Major products are obtained and quantified using gas chromatography analysis.A flame ionization detector and a thermal conductivity detector are used for species identification and quantification.Kinetic modeling has been performed using several detailed and lumped chemical kinetic mechanisms.Differences in modeling results among the kinetic models are described.Reaction path analysis and sensitivity analysis are performed to determine the important reactions controlling fuel pyrolysis and their influence on the predicted concentrations of reactant and product species profiles.The present work provides new fundamental knowledge in understating pyrolysis characteristics of cyclohexane compounds and additional data set for detailed kinetic mechanism development.

A new Ignition-Growth reaction rate model for shock initiation

Accurately predicting reactive flow is a challenge when characterizing an explosive under external shock stimuli as the shock initiation time is on the order of a microsecond.The present study constructs a new Ignition-Growth reaction rate model,which can describe the shock initiation processes of explosives with different initial densities,particle sizes and loading pressures by only one set of model parameters.Compared with the Lee-Tarver reaction rate model,the new Ignition-Growth reaction rate model describes better the shock initiation process of explosives and requires fewer model parameters.Moreover,the shock initiation of a 2,4-Dinitroanisole(DNAN)-based melt-cast explosive RDA-2(DNAN/HMX(octahydro-1,3,5,7-tetranitro-1,3,5,7-tetrazoncine)/aluminum)are investigated both experimentally and numerically.A series of shock initiation experiments is performed with manganin piezoresistive pressure gauges and corresponding numerical simulations are carried out with the new Ignition-Growth reaction rate model.The RDA-2 explosive is found to have higher critical initiation pressure and lower shock sensitivity than traditional explosives(such as the Comp.B explosive).The calibrated reaction rate model parameters of RDA-2 could provide numerical basis for its further application.

EMPIRICAL LIKELIHOOD-BASED INFERENCE IN LINEAR MODELS WITH INTERVAL CENSORED DATA

An empirical likelihood approach to estimate the coefficients in linear model with interval censored responses is developed in this paper. By constructing unbiased transformation of interval censored data,an empirical log-likelihood function with asymptotic X^2 is derived. The confidence regions for the coefficients are constructed. Some simulation results indicate that the method performs better than the normal approximation method in term of coverage accuracies.

Composite Quantile Regression for Nonparametric Model with Random Censored Data

The composite quantile regression should provide estimation efficiency gain over a single quantile regression. In this paper, we extend composite quantile regression to nonparametric model with random censored data. The asymptotic normality of the proposed estimator is established. The proposed methods are applied to the lung cancer data. Extensive simulations are reported, showing that the proposed method works well in practical settings.

Generalized Likelihood Ratio Tests for Varying-Coefficient Models with Censored Data

In this paper, we extend the generalized likelihood ratio test to the varying-coefficient models with censored data. We investigate the asymptotic behavior of the proposed test and demonstrate that its limiting null distribution follows a distribution, with the scale constant and the number of degree of freedom being independent of nuisance parameters or functions, which is called the wilks phenomenon. Both simulated and real data examples are given to illustrate the performance of the testing approach.

Statistical Inference of Stress-Strength Model for Exponentiated Pareto Model with Censored Data

The reliability of a system is discussed when the strength of the system and the stress imposed on it are independent and non-identical exponentiated Pareto distributed random variables with progressively censored scheme.Different interval estimations are proposed.The interval estimations obtained are exact,approximate and bootstrap confidence intervals.Different methods and the corresponding confidence intervals are compared using Monte-Carlo simulations.Simulation results show that the confidence intervals(CIs)of exact and approximate methods are really better than those of the bootstrap method.

A TOBIN-TYPE ESTIMATE OF CENSORED LINEAR MODELS

The paper presents a two-stage method for estimating the parameters in the censored linear model Y-i = max(0, alpha(o) + X-i'beta(o)), 1 less than or equal to i less than or equal to n. In the first stage the data are grouped in some groups and then some adjustments are made, the results are used in the latter stage to form a Tobin-type estimate. The asymptotic normality of the estimate is proved and some simulations are made.

Reliability of a Multicomponent Stress-strength Model Based on a Bivariate Kumaraswamy Distribution with Censored Data

In this paper,we consider a system which has k statistically independent and identically distributed strength components and each component is constructed by a pair of statistically dependent elements with doubly type-II censored scheme.These elements(X1,Y1),(X2,Y2),…,(Xk,Yk)follow a bivariate Kumaraswamy distribution and each element is exposed to a common random stress T which follows a Kumaraswamy distribution.The system is regarded as operating only if at least s out of k(1≤s≤k)strength variables exceed the random stress.The multicomponent reliability of the system is given by Rs,k=P(at least s of the(Z1,…,Zk)exceed T)where Zi=min(Xi,Yi),i=1,…,k.The Bayes estimates of Rs,k have been developed by using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods due to the lack of explicit forms.The uniformly minimum variance unbiased and exact Bayes estimates of Rs,k are obtained analytically when the common second shape parameter is known.The asymptotic confidence interval and the highest probability density credible interval are constructed for Rs,k.The reliability estimators are compared by using the estimated risks through Monte Carlo simulations.

A LAW OF ITERATED LOGARITHM FOR THE MLE IN A RANDOM CENSORING MODEL WITH INCOMPLETE INFORMATION

In this article, a law of iterated logarithm for the maximum likelihood estimator in a random censoring model with incomplete information under certain regular conditions is obtained.

Web software reliability modeling with random impulsive shocks

As the web-server based business is rapidly developed and popularized, how to evaluate and improve the reliability of web-servers has been extremely important. Although a large num- ber of software reliability growth models （SRGMs）, including those combined with multiple change-points （CPs）, have been available, these conventional SRGMs cannot be directly applied to web soft- ware reliability analysis because of the complex web operational profile. To characterize the web operational profile precisely, it should be realized that the workload of a web server is normally non-homogeneous and often observed with the pattern of random impulsive shocks. A web software reliability model with random im- pulsive shocks and its statistical analysis method are developed. In the proposed model, the web server workload is characterized by a geometric Brownian motion process. Based on a real data set from IIS server logs of ICRMS website （www.icrms.cn）, the proposed model is demonstrated to be powerful for estimating impulsive shocks and web software reliability.

Bayesian and Frequentist Prediction Using Progressive Type-II Censored with Binomial Removals

In this article, we study the problem of predicting future records and order statistics (two-sample prediction) based on progressive type-II censored with random removals, where the number of units removed at each failure time has a discrete binomial distribution. We use the Bayes procedure to derive both point and interval bounds prediction. Bayesian point prediction under symmetric and symmetric loss functions is discussed. The maximum likelihood (ML) prediction intervals using “plug-in” procedure for future records and order statistics are derived. An example is discussed to illustrate the application of the results under this censoring scheme.

k-NN METHOD IN PARTIAL LINEAR MODEL UNDER RANDOM CENSORSHIP

Consider the regression model Y=Xβ+ g(T) + e. Here g is an unknown smoothing function on [0, 1], β is a l-dimensional parameter to be estimated, and e is an unobserved error. When data are randomly censored, the estimators βn* and gn*forβ and g are obtained by using class K and the least square methods. It is shown that βn* is asymptotically normal and gn* achieves the convergent rate O(n-1/3).

Research on the distribution characteristics of explosive shock waves at different altitudes

There are great differences in the distribution characteristics of shock waves produced by ammunition explosions at different altitudes.At present,there are many studies on plain explosion shock waves,but there are few studies on the distribution characteristics of plateau explosion shock waves,and there is still a lack of complete analysis and evaluation methods.This paper compares and analyzes shock wave overpressure data at different altitudes,obtains the attenuation effect of different altitudes on the shock wave propagation process and proposes a calculation formula for shock wave overpressure considering the effect of altitude.The data analysis results show that at the same TNT equivalent and the same distance from the measuring point,the shock wave overpressure at high altitude is lower than that at low altitude.With the increase in the explosion center distance of the measuring point,the peak attenuation rate of the shock wave overpressure at high altitudes is smaller than that at low altitudes,and the peak attenuation rate of the shock wave overpressure at high altitudes gradually intensifies with increasing proportional distance.The average error between the shock wave overpressure and measured shock wave overpressure in a high-altitude environment obtained by using the above calculation formula is 11.1389%.Therefore,this method can effectively predict explosion shock wave overpressure in plateau environments and provides an effective calculation method for practical engineering tests.

Statistical inference for dependence competing risks model under middle censoring

Middle censoring is an important censoring scheme,in which the actual failure data of an observation becomes unobservable if it falls into a random interval. This paper considers the statistical analysis of the dependent competing risks model by using the Marshall-Olkin bivariate Weibull(MOBW) distribution.The maximum likelihood estimations(MLEs), midpoint approximation(MPA) estimations and approximate confidence intervals(ACIs) of the unknown parameters are obtained. In addition, the Bayes approach is also considered based on the Gamma-Dirichlet prior of the scale parameters, with the given shape parameter.The acceptance-rejection sampling method is used to obtain the Bayes estimations and construct credible intervals(CIs). Finally,two numerical examples are used to show the performance of the proposed methods.

Two-way coupling model for shock-induced laminar boundary-layer flows of a dusty gas

The present paper describes a numerical two-way coupling model for shock-induced laminar boundary-layer flows of a dust-laden gas and studies the transverse migration of fine particles under the action of Saffman lift force. The governing equations are formulated in the dilute twophase continuum framework with consideration of the finiteness of the particle Reynolds and Knudsen numbers. The full Lagrangian method is explored for calculating the dispersedphase flow fields （including the number density of particles） in the regions of intersecting particle trajectories. The computation results show a significant reaction of the particles on the two-phase boundary-layer structure when the mass loading ratio of particles takes finite values.

Water Hammer Model of Shock Absorber Throttle Slice

In allusion to easy invalidation of damping valve in vehicle shock absorber caused by the impact from the road surface, the importance of the study of damping valve water hammer pressure is presented. The physical model of damping valve with the circle throttle slice is established. The time for the throttle slice deformation is studied by using the finite software, and the laws that how the structure parameters affect the deformation time are obtained. Combining the theory of water hammer, the water hammer initial and boundary condition of the damping valve is deduced, and the water hammer model of throttle slice is established. The analysis of simulation results indicates that the water hammer pressure amplitude and the amount of water hammer oscillation period can be reduced and the dependability of the valve can be enhanced by modifying the structure parameters and aperture width between slice and valve body.

Artificial neural network model of constitutive relations for shock-prestrained copper

Data from the deformation on Split Hopkinson Bar were used for constructing an artificial neural network model. When putting the thermodynamic parameters of the metals into the trained network model, the corresponding yielding stress can be predicted. The results show that the systematic error is small when the objective function is 0.5 , the number of the nodes in the hidden layer is 6 and the learning rate is about 0.1 , and the accuracy of the rate error is less than 3%. [