Precipitation trends and variability from 1950 to 2000 in arid lands of Central Asia

Climate warming will cause differences in precipitation distribution and changes in hydrological cycle both at regional and global scales. Arid lands of Central Asia （ALCA）, one of the largest arid regions at the middle latitudes in the world, is likely to be strongly influenced by climate warming. Understanding the precipitation varia- tions in the past is an important prerequisite for predicting future precipitation trends and thus managing regional water resources in such an arid region. In this study, we used run theory, displacement, extreme deviation theory, precipitation concentration index （PCI）, Mann-Kendall rank correlation and climatic trend coefficient methods to analyze the precipitation in wet and dry years, changes in precipitation over multiple-time scales, variability of precipitation and its rate of change based on the monthly precipitation data during 1950-2000 from 344 meteorological stations in the ALCA. The occurrence probability of a single year with abundant precipitation was higher than that of a single year with less precipitation. The average duration of extreme drought in the entire area was 5 years, with an average annual water deficit of 34.6 mm （accounting for 11.2% of the average annual precipitation over the duration）. The occurrence probability of a single wet year was slightly higher than that of a single dry year. The occurrence probability of more than 5 consecutive wet years was 5.8%, while the occurrence probability of more than 5 consecutive dry years was 6.2%. In the center of the study area, the distribution of precipitation was stable at an intra-annual timescale, with small changes at an inter-annual timescale. In the western part of the study area, the monthly variation of precipitation was high at an inter-annual timescale. There were clear seasonal changes in precipitation （PC1=12-36） in the ALCA. Precipitation in spring and winter accounted for 37.7% and 24.4% of the annual precipitation, respectively There was a significant inter-annual change in precipitation in the arid Northwest China （PC1=24-34）. Annual precipitation increased significantly （P=0.05） in 17.4% of all the meteorological stations over the study period. The probability of an increase in annual precipitation was 75.6%, with this increase being significant （P=-0.05） at 34.0% of all the meteorological stations. The average increasing rate in annual precipitation was 3.9 mm/10a （P=0.01） in the ALCA. There were significant increasing trends （P=0.01） in precipitation in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, with rates of 2.6, 3.1 and 3.7 mm/10a, respectively.

Climate change, water resources and sustainable development in the arid and semi-arid lands of Central Asia in the past 30 years

The countries of Central Asia are collectively known as the five "-stans": Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Kazakhstan. In recent times, the Central Asian region has been affected by the shrinkage of the Aral Sea, widespread desertification, soil salinization, biodiversity loss, frequent sand storms, and many other ecological disasters. This paper is a review article based upon the collection, identification and collation of previous studies of environmental changes and regional developments in Central Asia in the past 30 years. Most recent studies have reached a consensus that the temperature rise in Central Asia is occurring faster than the global average. This warming trend will not only result in a higher evaporation in the basin oases, but also to a significant retreat of glaciers in the mountainous areas. Water is the key to sustainable development in the arid and semi-arid regions in Central Asia. The uneven distribution, over consumption, and pollution of water resources in Central Asia have caused severe water supply problems, which have been affecting regional harmony and development for the past 30 years. The widespread and significant land use changes in the 1990 s could be used to improve our understanding of natural variability and human interaction in the region. There has been a positive trend of trans-border cooperation among the Central Asian countries in recent years. International attention has grown and research projects have been initiated to provide water and ecosystem protection in Central Asia. However, the agreements that have been reached might not be able to deliver practical action in time to prevent severe ecological disasters. Water management should be based on hydrographic borders and ministries should be able to make timely decisions without political intervention. Fully integrated management of water resources, land use and industrial development is essential in Central Asia. The ecological crisis should provide sufficient motivation to reach a consensus on unified water management throughout the region.

中东亚干旱区土地覆盖变化和人类占用强度变化特征

研究中东亚干旱区2001-2013年期间土地覆盖变化特征和人类活动对潜在自然植被的影响程度,对保护生态环境和合理利用土地资源具有重要意义。本研究首先基于气象数据和综合顺序分类法(comprehensive and sequential classification system,CSCS)模型模拟了中东亚干旱区的潜在自然植被分布状况,其次基于2001-2013年的MODIS土地覆盖数据集分析了土地覆盖变化情况,最后在前两者的基础上研究了潜在自然植被的人类占用强度及其变化特征。结果表明,1)潜在自然植被以林地、草地、冻原、荒漠四大类为主;2)中东亚干旱区土地覆盖变化较大,其中中亚灌丛面积波动增加,中国华北干旱区农田面积扩张明显,蒙古国中西部灌丛和草地覆盖面积明显减少;3)研究区人类占用强度增强。其中,2010-2013年增长较为明显,4年间人类占用面积占研究区面积的比例增长了1.45%。潜在草地人类占用比例在2009-2013年间增幅最大,为2.88%;潜在林地人类占用比例在2001-2005年间增幅最大,为6.99%。4)在北哈萨克斯坦三州(北哈萨克斯坦州、阿克莫拉州、库斯塔奈州),人口迁移是潜在自然植被人类占用强度变化的主要因素,2006-2013年间人类占用强度比例增长了11.38%;中国的呼伦贝尔和山西干旱区,农业开发是人类占用强度增大的主要因素,2001-2013年间人类占用强度比例分别增长了6.62%和17.64%。

中亚干旱区陆地水资源评估方法与挑战

集中回顾中亚干旱区陆地水资源评估手段进展。水资源评估手段主要可分为基于观测数据和水文模型模拟两大类。从数据获取手段来讲,站点实测、遥感、再分析数据是目前中亚水资源评估的主要数据来源。其中,遥感数据又可分为成像遥感数据以及非成像遥感数据(包括雷达高度计、重力卫星数据)。由于干旱区站点资料缺乏,遥感与水文模型集成已经成为常用水资源评估方法之一。基于上述总结,对中亚干旱区在观测数据获取和数值模拟两个方面的展望及挑战进行了讨论。

中亚干旱区陆地水资源对气候变化的响应

气候变化对中亚干旱区高山融雪、蒸散发以及径流等水循环过程产生影响,从而引起区域水资源在空间和时间上的重新分配。在归纳总结降水、土壤水、地表水、陆地水储量等不同水体类型在气候变化下改变情况的基础上,综述了中亚干旱区陆地水资源变化对气候变化响应的现状及进展。由于使用的数据和评估方法不同,水资源变化研究结果具有一致性及不确定性。基于上述总结,对中亚干旱区水资源对气候变化响应方面的展望及挑战进行了讨论。

副热带西风急流与中亚夏季降水的关系

基于美国国家环境预测中心(NCEP)/美国国家大气研究中心(NCAR)提供的大气环流再分析数据和全球降水气候中心(GPCC)提供的逐月降水数据,研究了副热带西风急流与中亚夏季降水的关系。结果表明,当副热带西风急流位置偏南时,中亚上空受异常气旋控制,印度半岛上空的异常反气旋将阿拉伯海的水汽向北输送,并通过中亚上空的异常气旋接力输送至中亚上空,导致中亚夏季降水偏多,反之亦然。青藏高原夏季风和热带印度洋海温是影响中亚副热带西风急流位置移动的重要因子。当热带印度洋海温整体暖异常时,南亚夏季风减弱,印度半岛降水减少潜热加热减弱,印度半岛西北侧对流层高层受异常气旋控制,导致中亚对流层中高层气温偏低;当青藏高原夏季风偏强时,高原降水增多潜热加热增强,高原西北侧对流层高层对应反气旋环流,导致中亚对流层高层气温偏低。二者共同导致中亚对流层中高层温度降低,形成异常气旋环流,导致中低纬西风加强,中高纬西风减弱,对应副热带西风急流南移,反之亦然。

乌兹别克斯坦灌溉农业发展及其对生态环境和经济发展的影响

乌兹别克斯坦作为中亚干旱区重要的农业大国,由于其独有的气候条件,灌溉是决定其农业生产的主要控制因素,因此,研究其灌溉农业发展历程对于保障农业生产与自然环境安全具有重要意义。通过查阅乌兹别克斯坦灌溉农业发展领域的相关文献,结合联合国粮食及农业组织、联合国数据检索系统等官方网站提供的资料数据,总结灌溉农田面积、人口、主要作物产量及农业产值等数据的变化规律,阐述了乌兹别克斯坦灌溉农业的发展历程,分析讨论由农业灌溉引起的一系列环境问题及其对社会经济的影响。结果表明:(1)由于气候干旱少雨,乌兹别克斯坦灌溉用水主要来自阿姆河及锡尔河,下游河道径流量及咸海蓄水量持续下降,暴露河床内大量松散沉积物并导致频繁的沙尘天气。(2)乌兹别克斯坦整体农业灌溉技术较为落后,过度引水使得部分地表径流汇聚在灌区低洼地带,抬升地下水位,最终引发严重的区域土壤盐渍化,故全面推广先进灌排技术,是该国未来灌溉农业与生态环境健康发展的主要方向。(3)农业生产是乌兹别克斯坦重要的经济来源,对国内生产总值有显著的正向影响。此研究可为干旱区农业发展及水资源管理提供借鉴。

亚洲中部干旱区生态地理格局研究

亚洲中部干旱区是北半球陆地温带、暖温带面积最大的世界干旱区域。同时,它又是世界上生态与环境十分脆弱,自然资源和能源相对富集的区域。从发生学的观点,用系统论的方法研究亚洲中部干旱区生态地理环境的发生、发展和演变过程,以满足区域经济建设和生态建设的需求。研究认为:山地森林草原-盆地平原绿洲寓于荒漠,并与荒漠共存,是一种复杂、而又完整的内陆生态地域系统,是亚洲中部干旱区最显明,最基本的自然生态地理区域,具有最根本的生态地理格局特征。深刻认识、科学掌握和解读干旱区的地域规律性———生态地理格局。对建设美丽中国,特别是中国干旱区生态安全、环境保护,促进社会经济可持续发展具有重要的理论和实践意义。