In order to improve the accuracy of travel demand forecast and considering the distribution of travel behaviors within time dimension, a trip chaining pattern recognition model was established based on activity purpos...In order to improve the accuracy of travel demand forecast and considering the distribution of travel behaviors within time dimension, a trip chaining pattern recognition model was established based on activity purposes by applying three methods： the support vector machine （SVM） model, the radial basis function neural network （RBFNN） model and the multinomial logit （MNL） model. The effect of explanatory factors on trip chaining behaviors and their contribution to model performace were investigated by sensitivity analysis. Results show that the SVM model has a better performance than the RBFNN model and the MNL model due to its higher overall and partial accuracy, indicating its recognition advantage under a smai sample size scenario. It is also proved that the SVM model is capable of estimating the effect of multi-category factors on trip chaining behaviors more accurately. The different contribution of explanatory, factors to trip chaining pattern recognition reflects the importance of refining trip chaining patterns ad exploring factors that are specific to each pattern. It is shown that the SVM technology in travel demand forecast modeling and analysis of explanatory variable effects is practical.展开更多
To accurately analyze the fluctuation range of time-varying differences in metro-to-bus transfer passenger flows,the application of a probabilistic interval prediction model is proposed to predict transfer passenger f...To accurately analyze the fluctuation range of time-varying differences in metro-to-bus transfer passenger flows,the application of a probabilistic interval prediction model is proposed to predict transfer passenger flows.First,bus and metro data are processed and matched by association to construct the basis for public transport trip chain extraction.Second,a reasonable matching threshold method to discriminate the transfer relationship is used to extract the public transport trip chain,and the basic characteristics of the trip based on the trip chain are analyzed to obtain the metro-to-bus transfer passenger flow.Third,to address the problem of low accuracy of point prediction,the DeepAR model is proposed to conduct interval prediction,where the input is the interchange passenger flow,the output is the predicted median and interval of passenger flow,and the prediction scenarios are weekday,non-workday,and weekday morning and evening peaks.Fourth,to reduce the prediction error,a combined particle swarm optimization(PSO)-DeepAR model is constructed using the PSO to optimize the DeepAR model.Finally,data from the Beijing Xizhimen subway station are used for validation,and results show that the PSO-DeepAR model has high prediction accuracy,with a 90%confidence interval coverage of up to 93.6%.展开更多
基金The Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities,the Scientific Innovation Research of College Graduates in Jiangsu Province(No.KYLX_0177)
文摘In order to improve the accuracy of travel demand forecast and considering the distribution of travel behaviors within time dimension, a trip chaining pattern recognition model was established based on activity purposes by applying three methods： the support vector machine （SVM） model, the radial basis function neural network （RBFNN） model and the multinomial logit （MNL） model. The effect of explanatory factors on trip chaining behaviors and their contribution to model performace were investigated by sensitivity analysis. Results show that the SVM model has a better performance than the RBFNN model and the MNL model due to its higher overall and partial accuracy, indicating its recognition advantage under a smai sample size scenario. It is also proved that the SVM model is capable of estimating the effect of multi-category factors on trip chaining behaviors more accurately. The different contribution of explanatory, factors to trip chaining pattern recognition reflects the importance of refining trip chaining patterns ad exploring factors that are specific to each pattern. It is shown that the SVM technology in travel demand forecast modeling and analysis of explanatory variable effects is practical.
基金The National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2019YFB160-0200)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.71871011,71890972/71890970)。
文摘To accurately analyze the fluctuation range of time-varying differences in metro-to-bus transfer passenger flows,the application of a probabilistic interval prediction model is proposed to predict transfer passenger flows.First,bus and metro data are processed and matched by association to construct the basis for public transport trip chain extraction.Second,a reasonable matching threshold method to discriminate the transfer relationship is used to extract the public transport trip chain,and the basic characteristics of the trip based on the trip chain are analyzed to obtain the metro-to-bus transfer passenger flow.Third,to address the problem of low accuracy of point prediction,the DeepAR model is proposed to conduct interval prediction,where the input is the interchange passenger flow,the output is the predicted median and interval of passenger flow,and the prediction scenarios are weekday,non-workday,and weekday morning and evening peaks.Fourth,to reduce the prediction error,a combined particle swarm optimization(PSO)-DeepAR model is constructed using the PSO to optimize the DeepAR model.Finally,data from the Beijing Xizhimen subway station are used for validation,and results show that the PSO-DeepAR model has high prediction accuracy,with a 90%confidence interval coverage of up to 93.6%.
