This research aims to study the sustainability of Taiwan power supplychain based on system dynamics forecasting. The paper tries to investigate electricity shortage effects not only on the industrial side, but also fr...This research aims to study the sustainability of Taiwan power supplychain based on system dynamics forecasting. The paper tries to investigate electricity shortage effects not only on the industrial side, but also from the standpointof society. In our model, different forecasting methods such as linear regression,time series analysis, and gray forecasting are also considered to predict the parameters. Further tests such as the structure, dimension, historical fit, and sensitivityof the model are also conducted in this paper. Through analysis forecasting result,we believe that the demand for electricity in Taiwan will continue to increase to acertain level for a period of time in the future. This phenomenon is closely relatedto Taiwan’s economic development, especially industrial development. We alsopoint out that electricity prices in Taiwan do not match with high industrialdemand, and that prices are still slightly low. Finally, the future growth trend ofTaiwan’s electricity demand has not changed, and ensuring adequate supply tomeet electricity demand to prevent potential power shortages will pose somedifficulty.展开更多
Under the background of implementing renewable portfolio standards and the ever-improving tradable green certificate scheme,the increasingly environmentally-friendly preference of power users is leading to changes in ...Under the background of implementing renewable portfolio standards and the ever-improving tradable green certificate scheme,the increasingly environmentally-friendly preference of power users is leading to changes in electricity demand,which,in turn,is driving changes in the decision-making behaviors of various actors in the power supply chain.Based on this,with the goal of pursuing maximum profit,consumer-power-demand functions have been introduced with some consideration of the factors of consumer preference to establish an optimal profit model for each trading subject in non-cooperative states of the power supply chain,under the constraints of meeting renewable energy portfolio standards.Here,the optimal strategy of each trading subject is presented by adopting the reverse induction method.Furthermore,examples are used to analyze factors such as the influence of environmental protection preferences,quota ratios,price substitutions,and market demand as well as the optimal profit of each trading subject in view of providing a reference for the decision-making in the power supply chain trading subjects.展开更多
文摘This research aims to study the sustainability of Taiwan power supplychain based on system dynamics forecasting. The paper tries to investigate electricity shortage effects not only on the industrial side, but also from the standpointof society. In our model, different forecasting methods such as linear regression,time series analysis, and gray forecasting are also considered to predict the parameters. Further tests such as the structure, dimension, historical fit, and sensitivityof the model are also conducted in this paper. Through analysis forecasting result,we believe that the demand for electricity in Taiwan will continue to increase to acertain level for a period of time in the future. This phenomenon is closely relatedto Taiwan’s economic development, especially industrial development. We alsopoint out that electricity prices in Taiwan do not match with high industrialdemand, and that prices are still slightly low. Finally, the future growth trend ofTaiwan’s electricity demand has not changed, and ensuring adequate supply tomeet electricity demand to prevent potential power shortages will pose somedifficulty.
基金supported by Project of Philosophy and Social Science Foundation of Shanghai,China(Grant No.2020BGL011).
文摘Under the background of implementing renewable portfolio standards and the ever-improving tradable green certificate scheme,the increasingly environmentally-friendly preference of power users is leading to changes in electricity demand,which,in turn,is driving changes in the decision-making behaviors of various actors in the power supply chain.Based on this,with the goal of pursuing maximum profit,consumer-power-demand functions have been introduced with some consideration of the factors of consumer preference to establish an optimal profit model for each trading subject in non-cooperative states of the power supply chain,under the constraints of meeting renewable energy portfolio standards.Here,the optimal strategy of each trading subject is presented by adopting the reverse induction method.Furthermore,examples are used to analyze factors such as the influence of environmental protection preferences,quota ratios,price substitutions,and market demand as well as the optimal profit of each trading subject in view of providing a reference for the decision-making in the power supply chain trading subjects.
