Population growth，economic growth，technology changes in relation to environmental changes──A theoretical modelling analysis of environmental changes

This paper mainly deals with the impact of three major factors , namely population growth,economic growth and technology changes, on the changes of environmental quality. It presents a curve ofenvironmental changes in relation to demographic transition and process of industrialization. It concludesthat a major way of improving environmental quality is to intensify pollution decreasing technical factorsand that control of population growth will also reduce the pressure on the environment.

Research on the Influence of Population Structure on Economic Growth: Based on the Provincial Panel Data Model

In recent years, the international environment and conditions of China’s economic development have undergone profound and complex changes, but in the middle and long term, China’s economy has been maintaining a stable medium-high speed development. It is remarkable that population changes bring about changes in economic development;especially the aging of the population has a particularly significant impact on economic growth. Therefore, based on the inter-provincial panel data of 31 provinces and municipalities from 2011 to 2019, this paper mainly studies the impact of population change on economic growth by establishing a solid fixed effect model. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between population structure and economic growth, and population structure has a significant positive impact on economic development. In addition, there are regional differences in the positive and significant relationship between the two.

Principle of Classification of Economic Growth Mode

In this paper, the economic growth factors are classified into two types and three kinds by the growth rate function of Solow. Based on their contribution, the economic growth mode is classified into three types and eight kinds. The case analysis of the classfication of economic growth mode is given. Finally, the paper gives the economic growth function which describes the principle of interaction among economic growth factors.

Current situation and trend of arable land change in China

How to protect arable land in the process of economic development and urbanization is a critical issue in China. In this paper, an attempt is made to analyze the situation of arable land change in China and it's relationship with population growth, economic development and urbanization. In depth analysis is also made in different regions. Forecasting is conducted to show the trend of arable land change in China based on the results of correlation analysis. Some suggestions are put forward for the policy making of reasonable utilization and protection of arable land in the future.

Overcoming the contradiction between promoting economic growth and transforming the economic growth pattern

Promoting economic growth has become the first and foremost objective of macro-control since China experienced a drastic economic downturn in the fourth quarter of 2008. Now China is at a special stage of transition characterized by the transformation of the economic growth mode. While promoting economic growth, the government must effectively coordinate the relationship between economic growth and the transformation of growth mode. This is not a task that can be done easily. To promote economic growth, the central government has selected a number of industries and formulated an industrial revitalization plan for each of these them. Revitalizing these industries helps promote economic growth at the present stage but propelling these industries alone still cannot fully meet the requirements for transforming the economic growth pattern. To coordinate the relationship between promoting economic growth and transforming the economic growth pattern, it is currently imperative to adjust China’s industrial upgrading strategy and to pay attention to intra-industrial upgrading, particularly process upgrading.

Changes in China--Beijing is seeking less energy-intensive economic growth ＆ a less carbon-intensive energy mix and its impact over oil ＆ gas supply

Having experienced over 30 years of rapid growth,China’s economic development is entering a new normal featured by an ever optimizing economic structure shifting from high-speed to medium-high speed growth,and from factor-driven to innovation-driven pattern.In adapting

Exploring the relationship between climate change and violent conflict

Does climate change lead to violent conflict? This article reviews the existing literature connecting climatic conditions to conflict. It finds that the existing literature has not detected a robust and general effect from climate to conflict onset. Moreover, there exists scientific agreement that climatic changes can contribute to conflict under some conditions and through certain pathways.In particular, the recent literature offers considerable suggestive evidence that climatic changes can lead to conflict in countries and/or regions, which are dependent on agriculture, host politically excluded groups, and have ineffective institutions. Future research should focus not only on understanding of the pathways and contexts in which climatic changes are most likely to increase or exacerbate the risk of conflict but also work to understand the mechanisms by which climate variability and change might cause conflict.

A RCK Model with Endogenous Fertility and Exogenous Technological Change

The technological change as an exogenous variable is introduced into the RCK model with endogenous fertility in this paper. It is proved that the model has at least a nonzero steady state and the nonzero steady state is unique when the parameters satisfies some conditions. By phrase protrait analysis, the unique nonzero steady state is saddle and the economy has a unique optimal growth path. The results obtained implies that the relationship between the technological change and population growth rate determinated by the economic structure and the parental ethies. For the economy in which the parents is selfish, promoting the technological change rate decreases the fertility at the steady state. On the other hand, for the economy in which the parents is less selfish, the fertility increases as the technological change rate increases.

The Impacts of the Growth of the Three Industries and Industrial Price Structural Changes on China’s Economic Growth between 1952 and 2019

This paper focuses on the impacts and effects of China’s growth of the three industries and price structural change on the real GDP growth rate.First of all,it presents a new accounting method for decomposing growth rates on the basis of existing accounting method for decomposing growth rates.By using this method,we can identify the impacts and effects of structural changes on the growth rate.The paper uses a new decomposition method to recalculate China’s industry-based real GDP growth rates between 1952 and 2019,focuses on the driving effect of growth of the three industries on the real GDP growth,and the impacts of price structural change on GDP growth rate and the contributin of the growth of the three industries on GDP growth rate.By analysis,this paper shows that between 1952 and 2019 China’s economic growth was mainly driven by the secondary industry,which had contributed to the economic growth by over 50%,the role of the tertiary industry in driving economic growth rose,but that of the secondary industry declined over the time;in the short run,the overall effect of the price structural changes of the three industries has a little impact on the economic growth,but the price change of each industry has strong effects,and the price structural change has signifi cantly changed the effect of the growth of the three industries on the real economic growth;in the long term,the price structural change plays a relatively big hindering effect on economic growth due to the Baumol’s cost disease.

CHANGES FOR CHINA'S FOREIGN TRADE GROWTH

In 1996,China began to set targets for quadrupling its per capitaaverage GNP for a better livelihood and socialist market economicsystem——a kind of mature opening economy in the Ninth Five-YearPlan period(1996-2000),aiming at comformity with the worldeconomy.For these purposes,it is essential to expand China’sopening to the outside for its foreign trade to boom and thus make fulluse of foreign and domestic markets for accelerating our economicdevelopment and upgrading development efficiency.In other words,China’s foreign trade development in the Ninth Five-Year Planperiod will greatly affect and control our economic growth andeconomic system reform.

The Future is in the Past： Projecting and Plotting the Potential Rate of Growth and Trajectory of the Structural Change of the Chinese Economy for the Next 20 Years

Based on the convergence hypothesis and referring to the experience of East Asian high-performing economies from 1950 to 2010, this paper projects and plots the potential growth rate of the Chinese economy over the next 20years. It predicts that the potential growth rate of per capita GDP adjusted by purchasing power parity averages at 6. 02 percent from 2015 to 2035, while the potential GDP growth rate of 2015 would still be above 8percent, which implies that the realized rate of growth has not reached its potential since 2012. Besides, based on the per capita GDP projected and on cross -country comparison, the paper plots the trajectory of structural change of the Chinese economy from 2015 to 2035. The result shows that： （i） the value-added share of primary industry will drop more rapidly than the employment share; （ii） the value-added share of secondary industry will decline and employment share will present an inverted U shape whose turning point will probably come between 2020 and 2025; （iii） both the value-added and employment share of tertiary industry will increase continuously.

百年变局与大国关系的中长期演变

在百年未有之大变局视角下,大国力量最本质和持久的因素仍然是经济力量。看待中美经济力量变化时,既要重视短期变化,但更要重视长期趋势。从短期来看,中国经济总量赶超美国经济总量的速度有所减缓,但仍存在超越美国的可能。从长期来看,基于PPP测算的经济力量对比,将康德拉季耶夫周期和权力转移理论相结合,有助于更好地理解国际冲突和地缘政治变化。由于收入水平较低的国家基于上述两种算法会有不同的经济地位,而这种差别是造成近年来俄罗斯和印度在国际舞台上冲突性行动加剧的重要原因。日本因为熟悉政府能力与经济增长的复杂关系,倾向于低估中国的长期经济增长前景,进而导致日本在战略上始终追随美国。不过,俄乌冲突使美国组建包括欧盟、日本和印度在内的大联盟的成效大打折扣。

冷季不同饲养管理模式对牦牛生长、脂肪沉积及养殖效益的影响

冷季不同饲养管理模式对牦牛生长性能、脂肪沉积及养殖经济效益等产生重要影响。本研究在冷季分别对公牦牛进行自然放牧(SEG1组)和投喂不同粗精比的饲粮,结果表明:与SEG1组相比,补饲组牦牛平均日增重(ADG)显著提高(P<0.05);补饲组碱性磷酸酶(ALP)、总胆固醇(TC)、甘油三酯(TG)、葡萄糖(GLU)、高密度脂蛋白胆固醇(HDL-C)、低密度脂蛋白胆固醇(LDL-C)、游离脂肪酸(NEFA)、脂肪酸合成酶(FAS)和脂蛋白脂酶(LPL)含量显著高于SEG1组(P<0.05);各补饲组牦牛肝脏组织内脂滴表达面积百分比显著高于SEG1组(P<0.05),各补饲组之间也存在显著差异(P<0.05);与SEG1组相比,SEC50组、SEC30组和SEC10组牦牛养殖利润分别提高228.77%,258.69%和115.52%。综上所述,冷季补饲管理可有效提高牦牛的生长性能,增强机体脂肪沉积和代谢功能,提高牦牛养殖经济效益,补饲饲粮粗精料比为70∶30效果最佳。

中国经济增长的动力溯源:人口红利还是教育红利?

在全面建设现代化产业体系过程中,充分挖掘人口资源优势对中国经济转型的影响作用至关重要。文章利用中国30个省份的面板数据,实证分析了2000—2021年劳动要素在中国经济中的贡献作用与门槛特征。结果表明:在中国经济增长过程中,人口红利与教育红利长期存在,教育红利一直是促进中国经济增长的主要动力因素;而在产业结构变迁过程中,人口红利的波动特征更为明显,人口红利与教育红利随着产业合理化水平的提升而减弱,随着产业高级化的推进而增强。由此提出,要在优化产业结构的同时稳定人口增长速度,促进教育人力资本的持续提升以及农村劳动力的合理流动。

怀化市稻油轮作模式下优质杂交水稻品种比较试验

为筛选出适应怀化山区高产、优质、抗性好的杂交水稻品种,在采用稻油两熟制生产模式的基础上,选用湖南省主推的17个杂交水稻品种开展比较试验。结果表明:悦两优1672、悦两优8549、玮两优6246、悦两优钰占、玮两优倩丝、誉两优1267、野香优海丝、华浙优261、晶两优534、泰优农39、淳丰优6319的综合表现较好;誉两优1267、玮两优6246、淳丰优6319、华浙优261、青香优香九、野香优海丝、玮两优倩丝、悦两优钰占、晶两优534、泰优农39的丰产性、综合性状突出,表现出极强的优势,在中高海拔地区具有示范推广价值。

Balancing Carbon Emission Reductions and Social Economic Development for Sustainable Development: Experience from 24 Countries

The impact of human carbon emissions on climate has generated widespread global concern. We selected 24 countries as research objects and analysed the changes in carbon emissions in different countries between the establishment of emission reduction actions in 1990 and 2014. Then, we selected 19 factors representing four categories(economy, population, technology and energy) to explore the key factors that led to changes in carbon dioxide(CO2) emissions in different countries. Emission reduction actions since 1990 did not lead to marked improvements, and only five countries(Russia, Germany, the United Kingdom, Italy and France) achieved reductions in carbon emissions. The factors that influenced CO2 emissions varied among countries. In most developing countries, reductions in CO2 emissions were caused by reductions in poverty and inherent natural conditions. Moreover, the extent of influence of a given factor on CO2 emissions differed among countries. The global economic crisis may cause similar fluctuations in CO2 emissions in many countries. Adjustments to energy and industrial structures are the main reason for the reduction in carbon emissions, whereas economic growth and urbanization are the two major contributors to the growth of carbon emissions. According to historical carbon emissions data, a green energy revolution must be implemented to address global climate change and ensure the sustainable development of human societies.

On the Measurement of Technological Change

A decomposition into components of the overall technological change is carried out.The overall technological change is decomposed into the technological change,which consists of autonomous shift and shape-deformation in isoquants of production function over table,the scale economics or diseconomies,and the technological change,which is determined by marginal rates of substitution of factors,capital/labor ratio(capital intensity)and its changes.Under the assumption of constant returns to scale the mathematical framework reduces exactly to Solow’s framework. The mathematical formula derived can be applied to measuring the overall technological change in its components.