Great Changes Unseen for a Century in American Politics and the 2020 US Presidential Election

American politics is currently undergoing great changes unseen in a century,which has been predominately manifested in the following hree aspects:first,the rampant COVID-19 pandemic has caused the US tosuffer its worst economic recession since the Great Depression in 1929;second,social division and political polarization are besetting the US as evidenced in its wide partisan divide between the supporters of its two major parties on a range of critical issues;and third,the US is caught in anational identity crisis,while China's rise is believed to intensify such a crisis.These three factors are bound to exert great impacts on the 2020 presidential election of the United States:the COVID-19 pandemic will have certain influence on voter turnout and the approval rating of the two parties;in the context of the aforementioned serious social divide and highly polarized political landscape,the basic constituencies of the two parties are likely to show an extraordinary degree of party loyalty,which could result in the possibility that a few voters in a handful of key states will determine the results of the election;and as China's peaceful rise ismistaken as a serious threat to the national identity of the US.China will be one of the key topics in the coming US presidential election,hence further worsening the relations between China and the United States.

New Trends in International Energy Security in the Context of Profound Changes Unseen in a Century

Major changes such as the pandemic, games among great powers, and the Ukraine crisis alongside scientific and technological progress, economic transformation, social change, and cultural development have led to new features and trends in the international energy field. Historic fluctuations in international energy prices and adjustments in energy relations have taken place in the past two years. The energy system has fallen into disorder and discomfort;volatility in the energy market has triggered a strong domino effect, and major countries have taken unprecedented measures to address it. These changes have pushed international energy politics to a new development track. In a certain period of time in the future, the political and security aspects of energy will once again come to the fore. The long-term nature and complexity of the energy transition have become more obvious. In international energy politics, turbulence and uncertainty will be the new normal. A new binary opposition may emerge in the international energy landscape as well, with constant changes taking place in the connotation and extension of energy security. Academic and strategic circles should think deeply about how to dialectically discuss the relation between energy transition and the major changes of a scale unseen in a century, energy transition and energy security, and geopolitics and energy politics, among others, and consider the integration of development and security and the realization of common energy security as important principles for operating and developing energy strategies and promoting global energy governance.

The COVID-19 Pandemic and Changes Unseen in a Century

The COVID-19 pandemic can be compared to a world war that makes the existing international order unsustainable.The pandemic is interacting with global changes unseen in a century and exerting major impacts on international politics,world economy,major-country relations,the geostrategic landscape,global governance,and development models.In the next three to five years,the international landscape will be a chaotic situation,highlighting not poles but competing states and transformation,thus making it more difficult for major countries to cooperate while medium-sized and small states have to huddle for warmth and seek a way out within their respective regions.Although further observation is required during the ongoing pandemic and worldwide economic recession,some major trends in the world have emerged.A restart to China's international relations is called for.

Centennial Evolution of the CPC’s National Security Thought

Born at a time of domestic turmoil and foreign aggression,the Communist Party of China(CPC)has an ingrained understanding of and has always attached great importance to national security.Undergoing different stages of national development from"standing up"to"growing rich"and to"becoming strong,"the CPC has been constantly adjusting its visions and strategies on national security in light of changes in the international situation.Such visions and strategies will surely continue to be enriched and improved in the great endeavors of building socialism with Chinese characteristics.With the proposal of the"ten upholds,"the theoretical system of national security with Chinese characteristics for the new era has taken shape,which will be underpinned by a holistic approach to national security.Thus,a historic leap in the century-old construction of the CPC’s national security theory system has been achieved.This paper aims to explore the ideological context of the formation and development of a holistic approach to national security from the centennial evolution of the CPC’s national security thought,comprehend the theoretical guiding role of the CPC’s national security thought from China’s historic achievements over the past century,and grasp the historic significance and values of upholding and developing a holistic approach to national security from the new historic juncture in China’s development and its historical responsibilities in the context of great changes unseen in a century.

The Sino-U.S. Frictions and Global Security under the Backdrop of Changes Unseen in a Century

Since the first half of 2019,the Sino-U.S.trade frictions have become more and more intense since the United States has announced higher and higher tariffs,having attracted a lot of attention and resources given by academia,diplomacy and business circles at home and abroad.

International Taxation and the BRITACOM:A Study from the Perspective of“Profound Changes Unseen in a Century”

The world is undergoing"profound changes unseen in a century",which is crucial for current development of international taxation.The trends of"world multi-polarization,economic globalization,IT application and cultural diversity"are surging forward.New driving forces are replacing the old ones.Balance among different countries is also changing rapidly.A global governance system is thus reshaping.Based on all these changes,this paper analyzes their impacts on international taxation,and particularly the Belt and Road Initiative Tax Administration Cooperation Mechanism(BRITACOM).

The Profound Changes Unseen in a Century: The Perspective of Overlapping Effect of Technological Revolution Cycle and Political & Economic Thought Cycle

The waves of technological revolution can lead to great differences in the economic and social structures of countries and have a destructive impact. The choice of political and economic thoughts can amplify or inhibit such differentiation and impact. Over the past 100 years, humankind has undergone three technological revolutions, and the mainstream political and economic thoughts have experienced a cycle from classical liberalism to various types of anti-liberalism and finally to neoliberalism. In the two liberal periods, the overlap of liberalism and a technological revolution caused sharp contradictions between the rich and the poor, leading to profound economic adjustment and great political and social turmoil worldwide. In the non-liberal period, however, the overlapping effects were relatively mild. Currently, the world is facing similar trends and risks as during 1914-1940. Whether humankind will repeat the same mistakes merits attention and vigilance. This study argues that it is necessary to oppose unilateralism, uphold multilateralism, and advance globalization and free trade under the concept of collaborative development and shared prosperity, as well as explore comprehensive and sustainable development. These are of great significance for human society to prevent risks, obtain advantages and avoid disadvantages, and maintain world peace and development.

Interannual, decadal and century scale climatic changes revealed by stalagmite records

The stalagmite chronological table is established based on the definition of annual character of microlayers of a stalagmite by comparing the laminated rhythm to natural cyclic processes. Climatic anomalies lasting over ten years and rapid climatic changes such as abrupt changes of mean value, of variability, of trend and of cycles are discovered from the stalagmite chronological table. Stalagmites which record interannual to century scale climatic changes are excellent

百年变局之变、历史启示及中国的战略选择

当今世界处于百年未有之大变局,“东升西降”的历史大势与国际体系加速转型相互叠加演进,而中国也正处于实现第二个百年奋斗目标、实现中华民族伟大复兴的关键时期。客观冷静地厘清世界百年变局的内涵要义,是准确把握当前国际形势风云变幻的逻辑起点。中国未来发展,需要顺应时代特征、国际格局、大国关系、全球治理、世界矛盾的新变化进行战略运筹谋划。对比中国和其他国家百年发展走过的道路与取得的经验,有助于更加坚定中国式现代化发展的基本遵循和道路方向,进一步增强在新的动荡变革期把握战略机遇、驾驭战略风险的能力。

论“百年未有之大变局”的内在规律及我国的机遇和挑战——以大历史观为分析视角

“百年未有之大变局”是以习近平同志为核心的党中央对当前世界形势作出的具有划时代意义的战略判断。“百年未有之大变局”本质上是对国际形势总体特征的判断,需要基于新时代大历史观视角准确认识这一论断。“百年未有之大变局”是国际力量对比深刻变化、经济全球化深入发展和西方推广其现代化模式的结果。我们需秉承宏大历史观,顺应“百年未有之大变局”的演进趋势和时代潮流,从国际格局、经济全球化和现代化模式三个维度,辩证看待我国面临的战略机遇和风险挑战。

“一带一路”倡议:全球治理的国际合作平台

人类命运共同体理念是中国在世界百年未有之大变局和中华民族走向伟大复兴之际,为构建更加公平合理的全球治理体系所提出的中国方案。为践行人类命运共同体理念,中国与世界各国携手共建“一带一路”倡议,成为全球治理的国际公共产品和国际合作平台。“一带一路”倡议秉持共商、共建、共享原则,以合作共赢为核心的方式展开共建:一是以合作共赢代替依附型中心—边缘结构的丛林法则;二是充分利用国际市场资源的同时让沿线国家和地区搭乘中国经济发展的“快车”;三是以投资和贸易为切入点促进区域贸易自由化和投资便利化;四是以“五通”为中心全方位扩大同沿线各国的战略契合点和利益汇合点;五是以国内产业升级强化主导性影响确保可持续性。“一带一路”倡议呈现出中国应对“世界之问”的顶层设计、跨领域合作和全方位发展等特征。不同于以往全球治理体系的构建,“一带一路”倡议不是以战争方式,而是以合作共赢的方式为构建更加公平合理的全球治理体系提供国际公共产品和国际合作平台,着力缓解及解决“四大赤字”,实现持久和平、普遍安全、共同繁荣、开放包容和清洁美丽世界的共建目标,最终实现人类命运共同体的美好愿景。

习近平法治思想中的“大变局”应对方略论

“大变局”应对方略是习近平法治思想立足于“百年未有之大变局”的科学论断,针对积极应对世界大变局的现实需要所彰显之实效导向型共识。其作为一种凸显执行性遵守之行动整合的共同准则与依据,往往围绕建立健全涉外法治体系和营造国际法治新秩序这两种应对方略而具体展开。法治体系应对方略主要表征为建立健全涉外法治体系的原则表达、目标设定与核心要素,法治秩序应对方略则主要表征为营造国际法治新秩序的目标设定、方案要义与路径导向。基于此,全面梳理习近平法治思想中的“大变局”应对方略样态,能够为涉外法治工作的有效推动提供系统的类型化指引。

美俄关系的现状与未来前景论析

当前,美俄关系降到了历史最低点,其根本原因在于美国单极独霸、“美国第一”的战略与俄多极化、多中心主义主张之间,美国倡导的自由主义理念与俄奉行的保守主义理念之间,美国认可的雅尔塔后体系与俄认可的后雅尔塔体系之间,诸多结构性的分歧和矛盾激化。在当今世界面临百年未有之大变局和大国竞争的大背景下,在东升西降、美强俄弱并存的国际格局下,围绕乌克兰危机激烈博弈,俄美关系短期内难以根本改善。美国最大限度地利用自己的综合实力优势对俄实施战略挤压,俄罗斯也施展娴熟的大国博弈手法,竭力使自己处于战略有利地位,追求俄利益最大化。

新时代侨务政策的国际比较与经验启示

侨务工作作为党和国家的一项长期性、战略性工作,是推动国家经济社会发展的重要力量。文章基于百年未有之大变局的背景,分析了近年来国家侨务工作面临的复杂多变的国际竞争环境、全球化人才流动格局变化和海外侨情变化等新挑战新要求。比较了各国侨民战略与侨务政策的阶段转变和特色差异。新时代我国侨民战略与侨务政策体系仍面临不少挑战,必须积极借鉴国外在构建侨民战略框架、完善涉侨法律体系、推行引资引智计划、创新侨民工作格局等方面的经验,从建立中国特色侨民战略体系、加强海外人才风险预防、整合优化涉外资源、构建“大侨务”工作格局、积极开展民间外交、加强实地调研等方面优化侨民战略与侨务政策体系。

世界百年未有之大变局的时代意蕴

世界百年未有之大变局不是一时一地一域之变,而是具有系统性、全局性和长远性的深刻变化。只有坚持正确的历史观、大局观和角色观,站在时代的高度才能准确把握世界百年未有之大变局的基本性质。从时代意蕴看,世界百年未有之大变局是世界历史由一元主导走向多元并存的时代,是资本主义和社会主义竞争格局重塑的时代,是中国发展与世界变局同步交织、相互激荡的时代,是中国为人类文明发展进步作出更大贡献的时代。深刻把握世界百年未有之大变局的时代意蕴,有助于我们更好地利用大势、发挥优势、引领态势。

百年变局下中华民族共同体的韧性建设

中华民族共同体的韧性,是指共同体在漫长的历史发展过程中逐渐形成的生存本能与精神品质,具体表现为居安思危的意识、自强不息的气质、自尊自信的品格、创新务实的精神、开放包容的态度。中华民族共同体韧性的形成,一方面源于共同体结构的外柔内韧,即社会层级结构中的家国一体传统凸显整体的向心优势,以及民族关系圈层上的多元一体格局巩固持久的文明核心;另一方面则源于功能上的有序调适,即大一统国家的荒政与体制变革建构出中华民族共同体韧性的制度机制,思想传承与教化则强化共同体成员的韧性理念。中华民族共同体韧性历经淬炼,国土不可分、国家不可乱、民族不可散、文明不可断的共同信念得以彰显,并熔铸于当下的中华民族共同体韧性之中。如今,在百年未有之大变局下,世界之变、时代之变、历史之变正以前所未有的方式展开,全球和平赤字、发展赤字、安全赤字和治理赤字给中华民族共同体韧性带来全新的挑战。对此,必须把握世界历史发展大势,进一步加强韧性建设;突出韧性自身的优势,充分发挥韧性功能;立足“两个大局”的时代大势,积极转变韧性策略。只有在变中求稳、稳中求进,不断强化韧性的张力与应力,才能真正维护和平稳定的大环境,最终助力于中华民族的伟大复兴。

推动经济全球化更加普惠包容的中国视角

经济全球化是社会生产力发展的客观要求和世界历史演进的必然规律。中国提出坚持经济全球化正确方向,推动经济全球化朝着更加开放、包容、普惠、平衡、共赢方向发展,表明了中国捍卫和引领经济全球化的坚定立场。推动经济全球化更加开放,就要促进贸易和投资自由化便利化,积极参与全球治理体系改革,加强全球创新合作,在开放中获取全球化带来的机会和收益,以开放纾发展之困、汇合作之力、聚创新之势、谋共享之福。推动经济全球化更加包容,就要尊重各国自主选择的社会制度和发展道路,兼顾多方合理利益诉求,以公平公正基础上的平等竞争助力全球包容发展。推动经济全球化更加普惠,就要让普惠发展成为世界经济的常态,发挥大国促进经济全球化的重要作用,以正确义利观引领全球普惠发展。推动经济全球化更加平衡,就要缩小不同群体和阶层的收入差距,改变南北国家发展不平衡不公平的格局,以高质量经济发展与高水平生态保护统筹推进全球平衡发展。推动经济全球化更加共赢,就要摒弃冷战思维和零和博弈旧理念,深化和拓展全球伙伴关系,以互利合作新模式实现全球共赢发展。

百年未有之大变局视野下马克思主义基本原理课程教学改革探究

基于百年未有之大变局视野开展马克思主义基本原理课程教学改革,是将习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想落实到课程教学全过程的重要内容。应以百年未有之大变局的大视野拓展课程价值,增强教学的政治性;以体现百年未有之大变局视野的思政素材全方位丰富课程教学,提升教学实效性;以百年未有之大变局的视野在课程教学中推进马克思主义基本原理同中华优秀传统文化相结合,充分培育与展现文化自信。

百年未有之大变局下全球能源供应链和贸易格局重塑及中国对策研究

当前,世界正处于百年未有之大变局,能源供应链与贸易架构正经历调整与重塑。俄乌冲突、巴以冲突及中美贸易摩擦等一系列事件,将威胁能源供应链的稳定性,对中国的能源安全构成挑战,但也为中国参与全球能源贸易治理提供了难得的机遇。因此,中国应坚守本土能源生产大国的战略定位,积极推进能源运输通道建设,稳妥推动人民币国际化,并坚定不移地扩大市场开放。中国将能够更加从容地应对全球能源供应链和贸易格局的重组,进而提升在国际能源贸易中的话语权和影响力,更有效地保障国家能源安全。

“大变局”下成人教育发展考量:基于《马拉喀什行动框架》之解读

世界百年未有之大变局加速演进,不仅改变原有世界格局和国家发展态势,同时也通过一系列剧变性和复杂性的风险挑战对全球成人教育产生深刻影响。作为引领成人教育面向未来的指导性战略规划,《马拉喀什行动框架》着眼于“大变局”下成人教育发展的国际挑战,从深化成人教育领域的全球融资、构建全面合理的成人教育宏观治理体系、为成人教育助推全球可持续发展赋能三个角度为“大变局”背景下成人教育的全球发展提供了机遇。针对“大变局”,我国应审慎评估成人教育的公共支出指标,着力推动成人学历和非学历教育统筹治理并深掘成人教育可持续发展的人本内蕴。同时,也应当省思如何从人类共同利益出发,深化成人教育国际合作,推动整体框架具体落实。