Flooding and its relationship with land cover change, population growth, and road density

Bangladesh experiences frequent hydro-climatic disasters such as flooding.These disasters are believed to be associated with land use changes and climate variability.However,identifying the factors that lead to flooding is challenging.This study mapped flood susceptibility in the northeast region of Bangladesh using Bayesian regularization back propagation(BRBP)neural network,classification and regression trees(CART),a statistical model(STM)using the evidence belief function(EBF),and their ensemble models(EMs)for three time periods(2000,2014,and 2017).The accuracy of machine learning algorithms(MLAs),STM,and EMs were assessed by considering the area under the curve—receiver operating characteristic(AUC-ROC).Evaluation of the accuracy levels of the aforementioned algorithms revealed that EM4(BRBP-CART-EBF)outperformed(AUC>90%)standalone and other ensemble models for the three time periods analyzed.Furthermore,this study investigated the relationships among land cover change(LCC),population growth(PG),road density(RD),and relative change of flooding(RCF)areas for the period between 2000 and 2017.The results showed that areas with very high susceptibility to flooding increased by 19.72%between 2000 and 2017,while the PG rate increased by 51.68%over the same period.The Pearson correlation coefficient for RCF and RD was calculated to be 0.496.These findings highlight the significant association between floods and causative factors.The study findings could be valuable to policymakers and resource managers as they can lead to improvements in flood management and reduction in flood damage and risks.

Demographic changes in China’s forests from 1998 to 2018

Background: Tree demography is an essential indicator of various forest ecosystem services, and understanding its changes is critical for the sustainable management of forests. During the past four decades, China implemented unprecedented forest restoration projects, which altered tree demography by increasing the number of trees and introducing new species. However, it remains unclear how species composition has changed in China in response to the past forest restoration and demographical processes.Methods: We applied Forest Stability Index(FSI) and the relative change of FSI(%FSI) to describe the population dynamics of tree species and structure in China since 1998, using field-survey data collected from over 200,000plot-records from the 6th to 9th National Forest Inventories(NFIs).Results: The overall populations of both natural and planted forests have grown rapidly from 1998 to 2018, while the range of changes in the relative tree density was more variable for natural forests(ranging from-8.53% to42.46%) than for planted forests(ranging from-1.01% to 13.31%). The populations declined only in some of the tree species, including Betula platyphylla, Ulmus pumila, and Robinia pseudoacacia. In contrast, the populations of trees in the largest size-class either remained stable or expanded.Conclusions: Tree density of China?s forests(both natural and planted forests) generally expanded and the overall populations increased in most size classes, with greater increases occurred in planted forests. In contrasting to the global decline trends of large diameter trees, here we found no apparent decline for trees in the largest size-class in China, highlighting China?s success in improving forest health and forest adaptations to climate change. We advocate for more studies to reveal the mechanisms of the changes in tree demography, which will help to improve forest ecosystem services such as the carbon sequestration capacity.

Preliminary results on a near-real-time rock slope damage monitoring system based on relative velocity changes following the September 5,2022 M_(S) 6.8 Luding,China earthquake

Relative seismic velocity change(dv/v)is important for monitoring changes in subsurface material properties and evaluating earthquake-induced rock slope damage in a geological disaster-prone region.In this paper,we present a rapid damage assessment on three slow-moving rock slopes by measuring dv/v decrease caused by the 2022 M_(S) 6.8 Luding earthquake in Southwest China.By applying the stretching method to the cross-correlated seismic wavefields between sensors installed on each slope,we obtain earthquake-induced dv/v decreases of~2.1%,~0.5%,and~0.2%on three slopes at distances ranging from~86 to~370 km to the epicenter,respectively.Moreover,based on seismic data recorded by 16 sensors deployed on the rock slope at a distance of~370 km away from the epicenter,a localized dv/v decease region was observed at the crest of the slope by calculating the spatial dv/v images before and after the earthquake.We also derive an empirical in situ stress sensitivity of -7.29×10^(-8)/Pa by relating the dv/v change to the measured peak dynamic stresses.Our results indicate that a rapid dv/v assessment not only can help facilitate on-site emergency response to earthquakeinduced secondary geological disasters but also can provide a better understanding of the subsurface geological risks under diverse seismic loadings.

NEW CHANGES IN THE THIRD WORLD AND NORTH-SOUTH RELATIONS

Since the end of the cold war,there have take place a number of notablechanges in the Third World and North-South relations,which are expected tohave a far-reaching impact on the evolving world configuration and even the inter-national relationship in the 21st century.

From Cycles to Sequences:Sequence Stratigraphy and Relative Sea Level Change for the Late Cambrian of the North China Platform

In the Late Cambrian, the North China Platform was a typical carbonate ramp platform. The Upper Cambrian of the northern part of the North China Platform is famous for the development of bioherm limestones and storm calcirudites and can be divided from bottom to top into the Gushan, Changshan and Fengshan formations. In this set of strata, the deep-ramp mudstone and marls and the shallow-ramp packstones and grainstones constitute many carbonate meter-scale cycles of subtidal type. More tidal-flat dolomites are developed in the Upper Cambrian of the southern margin of the North China platform, in which limestone and dolomite beds also constitute many carbonate meter-scale cycles of the peritidal type. These cycles are marked by a variety of litho-facies successions. There are regularly vertical stacking patterns of meter-scale cycles in long-term third-order sequences, which is the key to discerning such sequences. Third- order sequence is marked by a particular sedimentary-facies succession that is the result of the environment-changing process of deepening and shoaling, which is genetically related to third-order sea level changes. Furthermore, four third- order sequences can be grouped in the Upper Cambrian of the North China Platform. The main features of these four third -order sequences in the northern part of the platform can be summarized as follows: firstly, sequence-boundaries are characterized by drowning unconformities; secondly, the sedimentary-facies succession is generally constituted by one from deep-ramp facies to shallow-ramp facies; thirdly, a succession of “CS (?)+HST” (i.e., “condensed section and high- stand system”) forms these four third-order sequences. The chief features for the third-order sequences in the southern part of the North China Platform comprises: more dolomites are developed in the HSTs of third-order sequences and also developed more carbonate meter-scale cycles of peritidal types; the sedimentary-facies succession of the third-order sequences is marked by “shallow ramp-tidal flat”; the sequence boundaries are characterized by exposure punctuated surfaces. According to the changes for the third-order sequences from the north to the south, a regular sequence- stratigraphic framework can be established. From cycles to sequences, the study of sequence stratigraphy from litho-facies successions to sedimentary-facies successions exposes that as follows: meter-scale cycles that are used as the basic working unit actually are litho-facies successions formed by the mechanism of a punctuated aggradational cycle, and third -order sequences that are constituted by regularly vertical stacking patterns of meter-scale cycles are marked by sedimentary-facies successions. On the basis of the changing curve of water depth at each section, the curve of the relative third-order sea level changes in the late Cambrian of the North China Platform can be integrated qualitatively from changing curve of water depth. The correlation of Late Cambrian long-term sea level changes between North China and North America demonstrates that there are not only similarities but also differences, reflecting control of long-term sea level changes both by global eustacy and by regional factors.

Coseismic gravity and displacement changes of Japan Tohoku earthquake(Mw 9.0)

The greatest earthquake in the modern history of Japan and probably the fourth greatest in the last 100 years in the world occurred on March 11, 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku.Large tsunami and ground motions caused severe damage in wide areas, particularly many towns along the Pacific coast. So far, gravity change caused by such a great earthquake has been reported for the 1964 Alaska and the 2010 Maule events. However, the spatial-temporal resolution of the gravity data for these cases is insufficient to depict a co-seismic gravity field variation in a spatial scale of a plate subduction zone. Here, we report an unequivocal co-seismic gravity change over the Japanese Island, obtained from a hybrid gravity observation（combined absolute and relative gravity measurements）. The time interval of the observation before and after the earthquake is within 1 year at almost all the observed sites, including 13 absolute and 16 relative measurement sites, which deduced tectonic and environmental contributions to the gravity change. The observed gravity agrees well with the result calculated by a dislocation theory based on a self-gravitating and layered spherical earth model. In this computation, a co-seismic slip distribution is determined by an inversion of Global Positioning System（GPS） data. Of particular interest is that the observed gravity change in some area is negative where a remarkable subsidence is observed by GPS, which can not be explained by simple vertical movement of the crust. This indicated that the mass redistribution in the underground affects the gravity change. This result supports the result that Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment（GRACE） satellites detected a crustal dilatation due to the 2004 Sumatra earthquake by the terrestrial observation with a higher spatial and temporal resolution.

Biomarkers of Aging: Changes in Circadian Rhythms Related to the Modulation of Metabolic Output

Twenty-four hour (circadian) rhythmicity is an important component of biological variability associated with studies relating to biomarkers of aging. Chronobiological testing techniques must be utilized because (1) many variables that are related to the modulation of metabolic output vary dramatically at different times of the day; (2) various experimental variable and treatment groups must be synchronized with environmental cues that control circadian rhythms; and (3) multiple circadian variables may interact together to modulate the rate of aging. The rhythm for physiological factors such as whole animal metabolic output, body temperature, heart rate, urine flow, potassium, etc. were found to be dissociated or altered by the senescence process; behavioral variables such as spontaneous activity, wheel running, feeding and drinking, verbal performance, as well as sleep-wakefulness rhythms, seem to be accurate predictors of biological age. Circadian rhythms for a variety of enzymes of intermediary metabolism which are directly associated with energy metabolism have been well documented. These well-defined rhythms of enzyme activity have also been shown to degenerate with aging. Rhythms tend to lose amplitude as activity falls with age and as a general loss of regulation (especially time of day where maximal activity might be found) of activity across the 24-h span occurs. As with behavioral variables, changes in enzyme rhythms appear to accurately predict aging. Generally speaking, the loss of temporal organization with age, characterized by decreased circadian amplitude, loose internal synchronization, and poor response to external environmental time queues, is associated with poor health states and decreased longevity. Temporal rhythms for whole animal parameters are highly correlated with molecular events, such as regulation of cellular metabolism. DNA repair, and gene expression. Automated data acquisition and process control systems will be required for future Chronobiological studies to develop biomarkers of aging.

Noncontact Monitoring of Relative Changes in Blood Pressure Using Microwave Radar Sensors

This study aims to confirm whether noncontact monitoring of relative changes in blood pressure can be estimated using microwave radar sensors. First, an equation to estimate blood pressure was derived, after which, the effectiveness of the estimation equation was confirmed using data obtained by a noncontact method while inducing variations in blood pressure. We considered that the Bramwell-Hill equation, which contains some parameters that directly indicate changes in blood pressure, would be an appropriate reference to construct an estimation equation for the noncontact method, because measurements using microwave radar sensors can measure minute scale motion on the skin surface induced by the pulsation of blood vessels. In order to estimate relative changes in blood pressure, we considered a simple equation including the pulse transit time (PTT), amplitude of signals and body dimensions as parameters. To verify the effectiveness of the equation for estimating changes in blood pressure, two experiments were conducted: a cycling task using an ergometer, which induces blood pressure fluctuations because of changes in cardiac output, and a task using the Valsalva maneuver, which induces blood pressure fluctuations because of changes in vascular resistance. The results obtained from the two experiments suggested that the proposed equation using microwave radar sensors can accurately estimate relative changes of blood pressure. In particular, relatively favorable results were obtained for the changes in blood pressure induced by the changes in cardiac volume. Although many issues remain, this method could be expected to contribute to the continuous evaluation of cardiac function while reducing the burden on patients.

Sea level change along the coast of China relative to the isostatic datum

On the basis of the analyses of significant periods for the sea level observation data taken from recent several decades at 12 tide stations, the monthly mean sea level observations are fitted by a model of linear trend of sea level change superimposed with several variations of different fixed periods. The trends of sea level relative changes and their errors are estimated by the LS method. The results are reduced to the isostatic datum proposed and established in the paper (Huang et al. , 1991, Seismology and Geology , 1, 1-15). The trends of sea level changes in the near future along the coast of China are studied. It is pointed out that the general trend of the sea level change along the coast of China is going up slowly and the rate of the change is not the same in different segments of the coasts. In a few segments, the sea level is even relatively going down. The numerical results given in this paper provide a basis for the predictions of the future sea level changes and their effects.

Analysis of sea level changes in the Caspian Sea related to Cosmo-geophysical processes based on satellite and terrestrial data

Analysis results of the average annual sea levels in the Caspian Sea obtained from ground and satellite observations, corresponding to solar activity characteristics, magnetic field data, and length of day are presented. Spectra of the indicated processes were investigated and their approximation models were also built. Previously assumed statistical relationships between space-geophysical processes and Caspian Sea level(CSL) changes were confirmed. A close connection was revealed between the low-frequency models of the solar and geomagnetic activity parameters and the CSL changes. Predictions extending into the next decades showed a high probability of an increase in the CSL and a decrease of the compared space-geophysical parameters.

Change of upwelling over Southern Fujian-Taiwan Shoal Fishing Ground and its relation to the fisheries

On the basis of the temperature and salinity survey data of July, 1975 and the historical da-ta of relevant hydrological and meteorological stations, this paper discusses the change patternand cause of the upwelling and its relation to the fisheries in the Southern Fujian-Taiwan ShoalFishing Ground. Being important for the benefit of fisheries, the above points have received

Apparent stress as an indicator of stress meta-instability:The 2021 M_(S)6.4 Yangbi earthquake in Yunnan,China

Investigating spatiotemporal changes in crustal stress associated with major earthquakes has implications for understanding seismogenic processes.However,in individual earthquake cases,the characteristics of the stress after it reaches its maximum value are rarely discussed.In this study,we use the 2021 M_S6.4 Yangbi earthquake in Yunnan,China and events of magnitudes M_L≥3.0 occurred in the surrounding area in the previous 11 years to investigate the spatiotemporal evolution of apparent stress.The results indicate that apparent stress began to increase in January 2015 and reached a maximum in January 2020.Apparent stress then remained at a high level until October 2020,after which it declined considerable.We suggest that the stress was in the accumulation stage from January 2015 to January 2020,and entered the meta-instability stage after October 2020.During the meta-instability stage,the zone of decreasing stress expanded continuously and the apparent stress increased around the Yangbi earthquake source region.These features are generally consistent with the results of laboratory rock stress experiments.We propose that apparent stress can be a good indicator for determining whether the stress at a specific location has entered the meta-instability stage and may become the epicenter of an impending strong earthquake.

Triassic Transgressive-Regressive Sequences in Guizhou-Guangxi Region, South China

Seven third-order transgressive-regressive sequences are recognized in the Early Triassic -Early Carnian stratigraghc succession of Guizhou-Guangxi region, South China. Based on currently available ages by the correlation of conodont ammonites and bivalve faunas, these sequences range approximately from 1.0 Ma to 5.6 Ma, with the average of 3 Ma. They occur largely in the Griesbachian-Dienerian, Smithian,uppermost Smithian-lowermost Anisian, Lower Anisian, Middle Anisian, Upper Anisian-Upper Ladinian and the uppermost Ladinian-Lower Carnian respectively, and can be grouped into three second-order transgressive-regressive supersequences. A relative sea level curve is established from the sequence stratigraghic analysis. Transgressive-regressive sequences,bounded by transgressive surfaces and the correlatable unconformities, are real unconformity-bounded units of lower rank. Each sequence comprises transgressive, highstand and regressive systems tracts, and can be easily correlated with the depositional sequence.

The Missing Time Calculation of the Hiatus Surface:A Case Study of the Upper Permian Reef Section the Platform Margin, Ziyun, Guizhou

Taken as an example the Upper Permian reef section on the carbonate platformmargin at Ziyun, Guizhou, the paper discusses the missing time of a hiatus surface, an impor-tant problem in chemical sequence stratigraphy, with the concept of cosmic chemistry. Then thepaper proposes a series of new concepts for chemical sequence stratigraphy, including the con-densation surface, relative compaction factor and time missing factor. Finally a quantitativecurve of Late Permian relative sea-level change in the Ziyun area is presented with timecoordinates.

Impact of the formation and ablation of Antarctic ice sheet on the global geoid and sea level

It is convenient to investigate the gravimetry using a harmonic spheric function for the description of the distribution and thickness of the Antarctic ice sheet. The gravitational theory and the Stokes' harmonic spheric function formula were used to determine the impact of the Antarctic ice cap on the global geoid. The Antarctic ice cap is formed from the condensation of seawater vapour whose mass is equal to a layer of seawater 59 m thick of covering the earth's surface, i.e. 2.7×10 19 kg. This will cause the global averaged geoid to decrease for around 23 m. The authors' computations show that the Antractic ice cap has a great impact on the global geoid, which increases (+) in some regions, but decreases (-) in other reigions. The geoid is +115 m, -37 m and +8 m at the South Pole, the 25°S parallel and the North Pole, respectively. If the Antarctic ice cap melts completely, on the rigid Earth's surface the seawater and geoid will return to its original position (and height) due to the balancing force of the fluid. Since the crust is almost in a state of isostasy, assuming that the crust is an elastic solid and the mantle is an incompressible fluid, the load of seawater will deflect the crust and drive the mantle material to flow. The material above the isostatic surface compensates mutually. If the densities of the mantle and seawater are 3270 kg/m 3 and 1030 kg/m 3, respectively, then the variation in the elevation of the continent is only 2.8 m with respect to the sea level after the Antarctic ice cap melts;it is not larger than that estimated by some people.It is worth noting that the above results were derived from an ideal Earth model. In the real Earth, the mantle and crust are visco elastic.

Impact of Variegated Temperature, CO<SUB>2</SUB>and Relative Humidity on Survival and Development of Beet Armyworm <i>Spodoptera exigua</i>(Hubner) under Controlled Growth Chamber

Climate change will have a noteworthy bearing on survival, development, and population dynamics of insect pests. Therefore, we contemplated the survival and development of beet army worm, Spodoptera exigua under different temperatures, (15°C, 25°C, 35°C, and 45°C), CO2 (350, 550, 750 ppm) and relative humidity (55%, 65%, 75% and 85%) regimes. Maximum larval and pupal weights were recorded in insects reared at 25°C. The growth of S. exigua was faster at 35°C (larval period 7.4 days and pupal period 4.5 days) than at lower temperatures. At 15°C, the larval period was extended for 61.4 days and there was no adult emergence from the pupae till 90 days. The S. exigua hatchling was absent at 45°C. The larval survival ranged from 31.6% - 57.2%, maximum survival was recorded at 25°C, and minimum at 45°C. The maximum (84.27%) and minimum adult emergence were recorded in insects reared at 25°C and 35°C respectively. Maximum fecundity (384.3 eggs/female) and egg viability (51.97%) were recorded in insects reared at 25°C. Larval and pupal periods increased with an increase in CO2 concentration. The highest pupal weights (128.6 mg/larva) were recorded at 550 ppm. The highest larval survival (73.50%) was recorded at 550 ppm and minimum (37.00%) at 750 ppm CO2. Fecundity was the highest in insects reared at 550 ppm CO2 (657.4 eggs/female), and the lowest at 750 ppm. Maximum larval and pupal weights were recorded in insects reared at 75% relative humidity (RH). The growth rate of S. exigua was faster at 85% RH than at lower RH. The larval survival ranged between 40.0% - 58.5%. Maximum adult emergence (88.91%) was recorded in insects reared at 75% RH and minimum at 85% RH. Maximum fecundity (447.6 eggs/female) and the highest egg viability (72.95%) were recorded in insects reared at 75% and 65% RH respectively. Elevated temperatures and relative moistness will diminish the life cycle, while hoisted CO2 will drag the life expectancy. Therefore, there is a need for thorough assessment of the impact of climatic factors on the population dynamics of insect pests, crop losses, and sustainability of crop production.

The Fiji Tide-Gauge Stations

We analyse the location, stability and continuity of the two tide-gauge stations in Fiji. Both stations are awkwardly placed on heavy harbour constructions resting on soft sediments susceptible to serious compaction problems. The nearby GPS stations resting on a bedrock hill offer no solution to the stability problems. The Suva tide-gauge has been moved three times, and must accordingly be analysed in segments. Even the last location covering years 1989 to 2917 provides a mixed picture of 16 years of stability, 10 years of rapid rise, and 4 years of rapid fall in relative sea level. This suggests the interaction of subsidence and cyclic changes in sea level. Any application of mean trends would produce meaningless values rather misguiding than assisting in the handling of estimation of on-going absolute sea level changes. We find this vital for the discussions of local sea level changes to be held at the UN conference on “Our Oceans, Our Future” in June in New York and at the main COP23 conference in November in Bonn.

Attribution of Maize Yield Increase in China to Climate Change and Technological Advancement Between 1980 and 2010

Crop yields are affected by climate change and technological advancement.Objectively and quantitatively evaluating the attribution of crop yield change to climate change and technological advancement will ensure sustainable development of agriculture under climate change.In this study,daily climate variables obtained from 553 meteorological stations in China for the period 1961-2010,detailed observations of maize from 653 agricultural meteorological stations for the period 1981-2010,and results using an Agro-Ecological Zones（AEZ） model,are used to explore the attribution of maize（Zea mays L.） yield change to climate change and technological advancement.In the AEZ model,the climatic potential productivity is examined through three step-by-step levels：photosynthetic potential productivity,photosynthetic thermal potential productivity,and climatic potential productivity.The relative impacts of different climate variables on climatic potential productivity of maize from 1961 to 2010 in China are then evaluated.Combined with the observations of maize,the contributions of climate change and technological advancement to maize yield from 1981 to 2010 in China are separated.The results show that,from 1961 to 2010,climate change had a significant adverse impact on the climatic potential productivity of maize in China.Decreased radiation and increased temperature were the main factors leading to the decrease of climatic potential productivity.However,changes in precipitation had only a small effect.The maize yields of the 14 main planting provinces in China increased obviously over the past 30 years,which was opposite to the decreasing trends of climatic potential productivity.This suggests that technological advancement has offset the negative effects of climate change on maize yield.Technological advancement contributed to maize yield increases by 99.6%-141.6%,while climate change contribution was from-41.4%to 0.4%.In particular,the actual maize yields in Shandong,Henan,Jilin,and Inner Mongolia increased by 98.4,90.4,98.7,and 121.5 kg hm^（-2） yr^（-1） over the past 30 years,respectively.Correspondingly,the maize yields affected by technological advancement increased by 113.7,97.9,111.5,and 124.8 kg hm^（-2） yr^（-1）,respectively.On the contrary,maize yields reduced markedly under climate change,with an average reduction of-9.0 kg hm^（-2） yr^（-1）.Our findings highlight that agronomic technological advancement has contributed dominantly to maize yield increases in China in the past three decades.