Climate Changes and Sustainability

Climate change is the phrase used to describe long-term changes in temperatures and weather patterns. Changes in the atmosphere and their interactions with diverse geologic, chemical, biological, and geographic variables are the main contributors to this cyclical adjustment of the Earth’s climate. Such changes may be induced purposefully, because of burning fossil fuels, clearing forests, and raising animals, or they may be natural, brought on by significant volcanic eruptions or variations in the sun’s activity. By significantly increasing the amount of greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere, this heightens the greenhouse effect and contributes to global warming. This work includes several additional theoretical and practical explanations of sustainable development. The theoretical work encompasses hundreds of researches that identify requirements for how development routes might satisfy sustainable development (SD) criteria using economic theory, complex systems approach, ecological science, and other techniques. The agreements made by the Parties in various nations across the world will consider a wide range of perspectives about what would be considered undesirable effects on the environment, the climate system, sustainability, economic growth, or food production.

Fragipan Horizon Changes Using Annual Ryegrass and Other Admendments

A greenhouse experiment was conducted involving intact fragipan soil cores of 50 cm thickness after removing the topsoil horizons. The cores were maintained in moist condition throughout the experiment and received several treatments with various amendments for different periods ranging from 9 to 17 months. The amendments included annual ryegrass or Festulolium residues, powder limestone and various humate compounds alone or in combination with the grass residues. The results suggested a significant effect of ryegrass and Festulolium in reducing penetration resistance into the top 10 cm of the fragipan within 9 - 17 months, particularly when used in combination with certain humate materials such as Leonardite. Apparently, this is the result of the release of certain soluble organic compounds from the plant residues or the humate amendments that increase the solubility of Si and Al associated with the fragipan brittleness, thus decreasing the density of the compacted fragipan material.

Spatiotemporal changes in sunshine duration and its influential factors in Chongqing,China from 1961 to 2020

The surface solar radiation in most parts of the world has undergone a phenomenon known as global dimming and brightening,characterized by an initial decrease followed by an increase.As a result,the sunshine duration(SD)has decreased in the past 60 years.Against the backdrop of global dimming and brightening,SD has decreased to varying degrees in many regions of China.Using the observed data of SD,cloud amount(total cloud amount and low cloud amount,abbreviated as TCA and LCA),precipitation,and relative humidity(RH)from 34 meteorological stations in Chongqing during the period of 1961-2020,along with a digital elevation model(DEM)with a resolution of 90 m,this study analyzed the spatiotemporal variations and influencing factors of SD.The analysis employed methods such as linear regression,Mann-Kendall test,wavelet transformation,and DEM-based possible SD distributed model.The results showed that the annual SD in Chongqing has significantly decreased over the last 60 years,with a decreasing interannual trend rate(ITR)of 40.4 h/10a.Except for no obvious trend in spring,SD decreased significantly in summer,autumn and winter at the ITR of 21.1 h/10a,8.5 h/10a and 7.5 h/10a,respectively.An abrupt decrease in the annual SD was found in 1979.The difference before and after the abrupt decrease was 177.7 h.The difference before and after the abrupt decrease was 177.7 h.The annual SD possessed the oscillation period of 11a.The spatial heterogeneity of the mean annual SD during the last 60 years was obvious.The distribution of SD in Chongqing is high in the northeast and low in the southeast.In addition,about 73%of the total area in Chongqing showed a significant and very significant decreasing trend.The regions with significant changes are mainly concentrated in the regions with altitudes of 200~1000 m.The increasing LCA was the main cause of the decrease of the annual SD in the regions with 200-400 m altitude decreased the most and changed the most.Increasing LCA is the primary cause of the reduction in annual SD,showing a strong negative correlation coefficient of-0.7292.In Chongqing,PM2.5 concentration showed a significant decrease trend in annual,spring,autumn and winter during 2000-2020,but the significant correlation between PM2.5 concentration and SD was only in autumn and reached an extremely significant level.

Changes in Spring Snow Cover over the Eastern and Western Tibetan Plateau and Their Associated Mechanism

The spring snow cover(SC)over the western Tibetan Plateau(TP)(TPSC)(W_TPSC)and eastern TPSC(E_TPSC)have displayed remarkable decreasing and increasing trends,respectively,during 1985–2020.The current work investigates the possible mechanisms accounting for these distinct TPSC changes.Our results indicate that the decrease in W_TPSC is primarily attributed to rising temperatures,while the increase in E_TPSC is closely linked to enhanced precipitation.Local circulation analysis shows that the essential system responsible for the TPSC changes is a significant anticyclonic system centered over the northwestern TP.The anomalous descending motion and adiabatic heating linked to this anticyclone leads to warmer temperatures and consequent snowmelt over the western TP.Conversely,anomalous easterly winds along the southern flank of this anticyclone serve to transport additional moisture from the North Pacific,leading to an increase in snowfall over the eastern TP.Further analysis reveals that the anomalous anticyclone is associated with an atmospheric wave pattern that originates from upstream regions.Springtime warming of the subtropical North Atlantic(NA)sea surface temperature(SST)induces an atmospheric pattern resembling a wave train that travels eastward across the Eurasian continent before reaching the TP.Furthermore,the decline in winter sea ice(SIC)over the Barents Sea exerts a persistent warming influence on the atmosphere,inducing an anomalous atmospheric circulation that propagates southeastward and strengthens the northwest TP anticyclone in spring.Additionally,an enhancement of subtropical stationary waves has resulted in significant increases in easterly moisture fluxes over the coastal areas of East Asia,which further promotes more snowfall over eastern TP.

Decadal Changes in Dry and Wet Heatwaves in Eastern China:Spatial Patterns and Risk Assessment

Under global warming,understanding the long-term variation in different types of heatwaves is vital for China’s preparedness against escalating heat stress.This study investigates dry and wet heatwave shifts in eastern China over recent decades.Spatial trend analysis displays pronounced warming in inland midlatitudes and the Yangtze River Valley,with increased humidity in coastal regions.EOF results indicate intensifying dry heatwaves in northern China,while the Yangtze River Valley sees more frequent dry heatwaves.On the other hand,Indochina and regions north of 25°N also experience intensified wet heatwaves,corresponding to regional humidity increases.Composite analysis is conducted based on different situations:strong,frequent dry or wet heatwaves.Strong dry heatwaves are influenced by anticyclonic circulations over northern China,accompanied by warming SST anomalies around the coastal midlatitudes of the western North Pacific(WNP).Frequent dry heatwaves are related to strong subsidence along with a strengthened subtropical high over the WNP.Strong and frequent wet heatwaves show an intensified Okhotsk high at higher latitudes in the lower troposphere,and a negative circumglobal teleconnection wave train pattern in the upper troposphere.Decaying El Niño SST patterns are observed in two kinds of wet heatwave and frequent dry heatwave years.Risk analysis indicates that El Niño events heighten the likelihood of these heatwaves in regions most at risk.As global warming continues,adapting and implementing mitigation strategies toward extreme heatwaves becomes crucial,especially for the aforementioned regions under significant heat stress.

Reactive Transport Process of Earthquake-induced Hydrochemical Changes in Guanding Thermal Spring,Western Sichuan,China

Earthquake-related hydrochemical changes in thermal springs have been widely observed;however,quantitative modeling of the reactive transport process is absent.In the present study,we apply reactive transport simulation to capture the hydrochemical responses in a thermal spring following the Wenchuan Ms 8.0 and Lushan Ms 7.0 earthquakes.We first constrain deep reservoir geothermal fluid compositions and temperature by multicomponent geothermometry,and then a reactive geochemical transport model is constructed to reproduce the hydrochemical evolution process.The results show that the recharge from the shallow aquifer increases gradually until it reaches a peak because of the permeability enhancement caused by the Lushan earthquake,which may be the mechanism to explain the earthquake-related hydrochemical responses.In contrast to the postseismic effect of the Wenchuan earthquake,the chemical evolution can be considered as hydrochemical anomalies related to the Lushan earthquake.This study proves that the efficient simulation of reactive transport processes is useful for investigating earthquake-related signals in hydrochemical time series.

Impacts of artificial dams on terrestrial water storage changes and the Earth's elastic load response during 1950-2016: A case study of medium and large reservoirs in Chinese mainland

The construction of dams for intercepting and storing water has altered surface water distributions, landsea water exchanges, and the load response of the solid Earth. The lack of accurate estimation of reservoir properties through the land surface and hydrological models can lead to water storage simulation and extraction errors. This impact is particularly evident in many artificial reservoirs in China. The study aims to comprehensively assess the spatiotemporal distribution and trends of water storage in medium and large reservoirs(MLRs) in Chinese mainland during 1950-2016, and to investigate the gravity,displacement, and strain effects induced by the reservoir mass concentration using the load elasticity theory. In addition, the impoundment contributions of MLRs to the relative sea level changes were assessed using a sea-level equation. The results show impoundment increases in the MLRs during1950-2016, particularly in the Yangtze River(Changjiang) and southern basins, causing significant elastic load effects in the surrounding areas of the reservoirs and increasing the relative sea level in China's offshore. However, long-term groundwater estimation trends are overestimated and underestimated in the Yangtze River and southwestern basins, respectively, due to the neglect of the MLRs impacts or the uncertainty of the hydrological model's output(e.g., soil moisture, etc.). The construction of MLRs may reduce the water mass input from land to the ocean, thus slowing global sea level rise. The results of the impact of human activities on the regional water cycle provide important references and data support for improving the integration of hydrological models, evaluating Earth's viscoelastic responses under longterm reservoir storage, enhancing in-situ and satellite geodetic measurements, and identifying the main factors driving sea level changes.

Monitoring absolute vertical land motions and absolute sea-level changes from GPS and tide gauges data over French Polynesia

In this study,we estimate the absolute vertical land motions at three tidal stations with collocated Global Navigation Satellite System(GNSS)receivers over French Polynesia during the period 2007-2020,and obtain,as ancillary results,estimates of the absolute changes in sea level at the same locations.To verify our processing approach to determining vertical motion,we first modeled vertical motion at the International GNSS Service(IGS)THTI station located in the capital island of Tahiti and compared our estimate with previous independent determinations,with a good agreement.We obtained the following estimates for the vertical land motions at the tide gauges:Tubuai island,Austral Archipelago-0.92±0.17 mm/yr,Vairao village,Tahiti Iti:-0.49±0.39 mm/yr,Rikitea,Gambier Archipelago-0.43±0.17 mm/yr.The absolute variations of the sea level are:Tubuai island,Austral Archipelago 5.25±0.60 mm/yr,Vairao village,Tahiti Iti:3.62±0.52 mm/yr,Rikitea,Gambier Archipelago 1.52±0.23 mm/yr.We discuss these absolute values in light of the values obtained from altimetric measurements and other means in French Polynesia.

Spatiotemporal Changes of Snow Depth in Western Jilin,China from 1987 to 2018

Seasonal snow cover is a key global climate and hydrological system component drawing considerable attention due to glob-al warming conditions.However,the spatiotemporal snow cover patterns are challenging in western Jilin,China due to natural condi-tions and sparse observation.Hence,this study investigated the spatiotemporal patterns of snow cover using fine-resolution passive mi-crowave(PMW)snow depth(SD)data from 1987 to 2018,and revealed the potential influence of climate factors on SD variations.The results indicated that the interannual range of SD was between 2.90 cm and 9.60 cm during the snowy winter seasons and the annual mean SD showed a slightly increasing trend(P>0.05)at a rate of 0.009 cm/yr.In snowmelt periods,the snow cover contributed to an increase in volumetric soil water,and the change in SD was significantly affected by air temperature.The correlation between SD and air temperature was negative,while the correlation between SD and precipitation was positive during December and March.In March,the correlation coefficient exceeded 0.5 in Zhenlai,Da’an,Qianan,and Qianguo counties.However,the SD and precipitation were neg-atively correlated over western Jilin in October,and several subregions presented a negative correlation between SD and precipitation in November and April.

Polyneuropathy, organomegaly, endocrinopathy, M-protein, skin changes syndrome with dilated cardiomyopathy: A case report

BACKGROUND Polyneuropathy,organomegaly,endocrinopathy,M-protein,skin changes(POEMS)syndrome is a rare paraneoplastic syndrome that encompass multiple systems.The most common clinical symptoms of POEMS syndrome are pro-gressive sensorimotor polyneuropathy,organ enlargement,endocrine disorders,darkening skin,a monoclonal plasma cell proliferative disorder,and lymph node hyperplasia.The organomegaly consists of hepatosplenomegaly and/or lym-phadenopathy;cases of cardiomyopathy are rare.Diagnoses are often delayed because of the atypical nature of the syndrome,exposing patients to possibly severe disability.Therefore,identifying atypical symptoms can improve the prognosis and quality of life among POEMS syndrome patients.lenalidomide and dexamethasone.CONCLUSION When patients with cardiomyopathy have systemic manifestations such as numb limbs and darkening skin,the POEMS syndrome is the most possible diagnosis.

Spatiotemporal characteristics and driving mechanisms of land use/land cover(LULC)changes in the Jinghe River Basin,China

Understanding the trajectories and driving mechanisms behind land use/land cover(LULC)changes is essential for effective watershed planning and management.This study quantified the net change,exchange,total change,and transfer rate of LULC in the Jinghe River Basin(JRB),China using LULC data from 2000 to 2020.Through trajectory analysis,knowledge maps,chord diagrams,and standard deviation ellipse method,we examined the spatiotemporal characteristics of LULC changes.We further established an index system encompassing natural factors(digital elevation model(DEM),slope,aspect,and curvature),socio-economic factors(gross domestic product(GDP)and population),and accessibility factors(distance from railways,distance from highways,distance from water,and distance from residents)to investigate the driving mechanisms of LULC changes using factor detector and interaction detector in the geographical detector(Geodetector).The key findings indicate that from 2000 to 2020,the JRB experienced significant LULC changes,particularly for farmland,forest,and grassland.During the study period,LULC change trajectories were categorized into stable,early-stage,late-stage,repeated,and continuous change types.Besides the stable change type,the late-stage change type predominated the LULC change trajectories,comprising 83.31% of the total change area.The period 2010-2020 witnessed more active LULC changes compared to the period 2000-2010.The LULC changes exhibited a discrete spatial expansion trend during 2000-2020,predominantly extending from southeast to northwest of the JRB.Influential driving factors on LULC changes included slope,GDP,and distance from highways.The interaction detection results imply either bilinear or nonlinear enhancement for any two driving factors impacting the LULC changes from 2000 to 2020.This comprehensive understanding of the spatiotemporal characteristics and driving mechanisms of LULC changes offers valuable insights for the planning and sustainable management of LULC in the JRB.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of land use/land cover(LULC)changes and its impact on land surface temperature:A case study in New Town Kolkata,eastern India

Rapid urbanization creates complexity,results in dynamic changes in land and environment,and influences the land surface temperature(LST)in fast-developing cities.In this study,we examined the impact of land use/land cover(LULC)changes on LST and determined the intensity of urban heat island(UHI)in New Town Kolkata(a smart city),eastern India,from 1991 to 2021 at 10-a intervals using various series of Landsat multi-spectral and thermal bands.This study used the maximum likelihood algorithm for image classification and other methods like the correlation analysis and hotspot analysis(Getis–Ord Gi^(*) method)to examine the impact of LULC changes on urban thermal environment.This study noticed that the area percentage of built-up land increased rapidly from 21.91%to 45.63%during 1991–2021,with a maximum positive change in built-up land and a maximum negative change in sparse vegetation.The mean temperature significantly increased during the study period(1991–2021),from 16.31℃to 22.48℃in winter,29.18℃to 34.61℃in summer,and 19.18℃to 27.11℃in autumn.The result showed that impervious surfaces contribute to higher LST,whereas vegetation helps decrease it.Poor ecological status has been found in built-up land,and excellent ecological status has been found in vegetation and water body.The hot spot and cold spot areas shifted their locations every decade due to random LULC changes.Even after New Town Kolkata became a smart city,high LST has been observed.Overall,this study indicated that urbanization and changes in LULC patterns can influence the urban thermal environment,and appropriate planning is needed to reduce LST.This study can help policy-makers create sustainable smart cities.

Analysis of Spatiotemporal Changes in Integrated Land Productivity in Chongqing from 1997 to 2023

[Objectives]Integrated land productivity can reflect the comprehensive utilization of land and the overall output level,which is the most basic and commonly used indicator in assessing land use efficiency.This thesis aims to analyze the spatial and temporal changes of integrated land productivity in Chongqing from 1997 to 2023 in order to assess its land use efficiency.[Methods]This study measured the integrated land productivity of Chongqing Municipality,the only municipality directly under the central government in the western part of China,over the past 26 years(1997-2023)through relevant surveys and statistical data,and analyzed in depth the integrated land productivity of the 38 districts and counties under the jurisdiction of Chongqing,as well as the functional sub-districts of the"one district and two clusters"and the"one district and two clusters"in Chongqing.It also analyzes the characteristics of spatial and temporal differences in land productivity in 38 districts and counties under the jurisdiction of Chongqing and"one district and two clusters".[Results]The results of the study show that over the past 26 years,the integrated land productivity of Chongqing has shown an annual growth trend,and the integrated land productivity of the 38 districts and counties and the functional subregions of"one district and two clusters"has also increased significantly,but the average annual growth rate of the integrated land productivity varies among different regions.From the perspective of spatial differences,there are significant differences in land productivity among the 38 districts and counties of Chongqing and the functional subregions of"one district and two clusters",which are mainly due to the different natural conditions,economic development levels and functional positioning of each region.[Conclusions]Based on the results of the study and the actual situation of Chongqing,this paper puts forward the leading measures to improve the integrated land productivity,with a view to providing a reference basis for Chongqing to improve the efficiency of land use and promote the sustainable use of land resources.

Dust-Holding Capacity and Bio-Chemical Changes of Plant Species Growing in an Around Opencast Mining Area of Bundelkhand Region of Uttar Pradesh, India

The present study has been carried out on a total of 50 available plant species to assess their dust-capturing capacity and biochemical performances in and around open cast granite mine areas of Jhansi district and Bundelkhand University campus treated as control site. Plant species existing under a polluted environment for a long time may be considered as potentially resistant species and recommended for green belt design in mining areas, especially to cope with dust pollution. Results showed the pollution level, especially of mining-originated dust particles holding capacity of leaves and effects of different biochemical parameters (Total Chlorophyll, Protein and Carotenoid) of existing plant species both from mining areas as well as from Bundelkhand University campus. Based on their performances, Tectona grandis L., Ficus hispida L., Calotropis procera Aiton., Butea monosperma Lam. and Ficus benghalensis L., etc. are highly tolerant species while Ficus infectoria L., Artocarpus heterophyllus Lam., Ipomoea purpurea L., Allianthus excelsa Roxb. and Bauhinia variegata L. are intermediate tolerant species. T. grandis had shown the highest dust-holding capacity (2.566 ± 0.0004 mg/cm2) whereas Albizia procera (0.018 ± 0.0002 mg/cm2) was found to be the lowest dust-holding capacity. Our findings also showed that the T. grandis and F. hispida have significant dust deposition with minimal effect of dust on their leaf chlorophyll (17.447 ± 0.019 mg/g and 14.703 ± 0.201 mg/g), protein (0.699 ± 0.001 mg/g and 0.604 ± 0.002 mg/g) and carotenoid (0.372 ± 0.003 mg/g and 0.354 ± 0.003 mg/g) content respectively among all selected plant species. Therefore, in the present investigation, plant species with high tolerance to high dust-holding capacity on their leaf surfaces are preferable for green corridors as open cast granite mines and their adjacent areas.

Metabolomic changes in children with autism

BACKGROUND Autism spectrum disorder(ASD)is a neurodevelopmental condition characterized by deficits in social communication and repetitive behaviors.Metabolomic profiling has emerged as a valuable tool for understanding the underlying metabolic dysregulations associated with ASD.AIM To comprehensively explore metabolomic changes in children with ASD,integrating findings from various research articles,reviews,systematic reviews,meta-analyses,case reports,editorials,and a book chapter.METHODS A systematic search was conducted in electronic databases,including PubMed,PubMed Central,Cochrane Library,Embase,Web of Science,CINAHL,Scopus,LISA,and NLM catalog up until January 2024.Inclusion criteria encompassed research articles(83),review articles(145),meta-analyses(6),systematic reviews(6),case reports(2),editorials(2),and a book chapter(1)related to metabolomic changes in children with ASD.Exclusion criteria were applied to ensure the relevance and quality of included studies.RESULTS The systematic review identified specific metabolites and metabolic pathways showing consistent differences in children with ASD compared to typically developing individuals.These metabolic biomarkers may serve as objective measures to support clinical assessments,improve diagnostic accuracy,and inform personalized treatment approaches.Metabolomic profiling also offers insights into the metabolic alterations associated with comorbid conditions commonly observed in individuals with ASD.CONCLUSION Integration of metabolomic changes in children with ASD holds promise for enhancing diagnostic accuracy,guiding personalized treatment approaches,monitoring treatment response,and improving outcomes.Further research is needed to validate findings,establish standardized protocols,and overcome technical challenges in metabolomic analysis.By advancing our understanding of metabolic dysregulations in ASD,clinicians can improve the lives of affected individuals and their families.

Multi-decadal Changes of the Impact of El Niño Events on Tibetan Plateau Summer Precipitation

Precipitation on the Tibetan Plateau(TP)has an important effect on the water supply and demand of the downstream population.Involving recent climate change,the multi-decadal variations of the impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)events on regional climate were observed.In this work,the authors investigated the changes in summer precipitation over TP during 1950-2019.At the multi-decadal scale,the authors found that the inhabiting impact of El Niño events on the TP summer precipitation has strengthened since the late 1970s.The main factor contributing to this phenomenon is the significant amplification in the decadal amplitude of El Niño during 1978-2019 accompanied by a discernible escalation in the frequency of El Niño events.This phenomenon induces anomalous perturbations in sea surface temperatures(SST)within the tropical Indo-Pacific region,consequently weakening the atmospheric vapor transport from the western Pacific to the TP.Additionally,conspicuous anomalies in subsidence motion are observed longitudinally and latitudinally across the TP which significantly contributes to a curtailed supply of atmospheric moisture.These results bear profound implications for the multi-decadal prediction of the TP climate.

Analysis of Imaging Characteristics and Dynamic Changes of 3 Cases of Severe Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia in Qinghai Province

Objective:To analyze the characteristics,dynamic changes,and outcomes of the first imaging manifestations of 3 patients with severe COVID-19 in our hospital.Methods:Computed tomography(CT)findings of 3 patients with severe COVID-19 who tested positive by the nucleic acid test in our hospital were selected,mainly focusing on the morphology,distribution characteristics,and dynamic changes of the first CT findings.Results:3 patients with severe pneumonia were older,with one aged 80.The first chest CT examination for all 3 patients differed.Imaging showed a leafy distribution of consolidation,primarily affecting the lower lobes of both lungs and extending subpleurally.A grid-like pattern was observed,along with changes in the consolidation and air bronchogram.These changes had slower absorption,especially in patients with underlying diseases.Conclusion:CT manifestations of severe COVID-19 have specific characteristics and the analysis of their characteristics and dynamic changes provide valuable insights for clinical treatment.

Historical Changes,Contemporary Characteristics,and Five Transformations of Environmental Design in China

Starting from the characteristics of modernization in three different historical stages since the founding of the People’s Republic of China,this paper analyses the internal changes in the professional name,subordinate disciplines and categories,and professional mission of the environmental design profession,and summarizes the changes in the characteristics of the environmental design profession in 10 aspects such as subordinate disciplines,design objects,design types,cultural characteristics,and aesthetic values on the basis of the results of the analysis,and explores five transformations of the environmental design profession in the process of China’s development in the future.The five transformations in the future development of China are to serve the harmony and beauty of the three major urban and rural spaces with“small and micro-renewal and reconstruction”;to serve the transmission of Chinese culture and the spread of Chinese civilization with“spatial heritage and innovation”;to serve the balance and sufficiency of the four functions of urban and rural settlements with“friendliness and equilibrium”;to serve the intelligence,wisdom,and enjoyment of indoor and outdoor living environment space with“scientific and technological achievements”;and to serve the co-construction,co-management,and sharing of indoor and outdoor public space in urban and rural areas with“public participation.”

Analysis of the Dynamics of Policy Changes in the International Border Cooperation Center under the Perspective of Multi-Source Flow Theory

The China-Kazakhstan Horgos Frontier International Cooperation Center has been established for nearly 20 years,and its targeted policies have gone through the stages of initiative,negotiation and modification,official operation,and optimization and enhancement.This paper explores the problems,policy,and political sources of policy changes since the establishment of the Horgos International Border Cooperation Center by applying the multi-source flow theory to find the opening of the problematic and political windows.It also constructs a model of policy change dynamics to provide suggestions on how the government should better promote the good development of China’s first transnational cooperation center.

Projected changes in extreme snowfall events over the Tibetan Plateau based on a set of RCM simulations

Extreme snowfall events over the Tibetan Plateau(TP)cause considerable damage to local society and natural ecosystems.In this study,the authors investigate the projected changes in such events over the TP and its surrounding areas based on an ensemble of a set of 21st century climate change projections using a regional climate model,RegCM4.The model is driven by five CMIP5 global climate models at a grid spacing of 25 km,under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 pathways.Four modified ETCCDI extreme indices-namely,SNOWTOT,S1mm,S10mm,and Sx5day-are employed to characterize the extreme snowfall events.RegCM4 generally reproduces the spatial distribution of the indices over the region,although with a tendency of overestimation.For the projected changes,a general decrease in SNOWTOT is found over most of the TP,with greater magnitude and better cross-simulation agreement over the eastern part.All the simulations project an overall decrease in S1mm,ranging from a 25%decrease in the west and to a 50%decrease in the east of the TP.Both S10mm and Sx5day are projected to decrease over the eastern part and increase over the central and western parts of the TP.Notably,S10mm shows a marked increase(more than double)with high cross-simulation agreement over the central TP.Significant increases in all four indices are found over the Tarim and Qaidam basins,and northwestern China north of the TP.The projected changes show topographic dependence over the TP in the latitudinal direction,and tend to decrease/increase in low-/high-altitude areas.