Population growth，economic growth，technology changes in relation to environmental changes──A theoretical modelling analysis of environmental changes

This paper mainly deals with the impact of three major factors , namely population growth,economic growth and technology changes, on the changes of environmental quality. It presents a curve ofenvironmental changes in relation to demographic transition and process of industrialization. It concludesthat a major way of improving environmental quality is to intensify pollution decreasing technical factorsand that control of population growth will also reduce the pressure on the environment.

Research on the Influence of Population Structure on Economic Growth: Based on the Provincial Panel Data Model

In recent years, the international environment and conditions of China’s economic development have undergone profound and complex changes, but in the middle and long term, China’s economy has been maintaining a stable medium-high speed development. It is remarkable that population changes bring about changes in economic development;especially the aging of the population has a particularly significant impact on economic growth. Therefore, based on the inter-provincial panel data of 31 provinces and municipalities from 2011 to 2019, this paper mainly studies the impact of population change on economic growth by establishing a solid fixed effect model. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between population structure and economic growth, and population structure has a significant positive impact on economic development. In addition, there are regional differences in the positive and significant relationship between the two.

Principle of Classification of Economic Growth Mode

In this paper, the economic growth factors are classified into two types and three kinds by the growth rate function of Solow. Based on their contribution, the economic growth mode is classified into three types and eight kinds. The case analysis of the classfication of economic growth mode is given. Finally, the paper gives the economic growth function which describes the principle of interaction among economic growth factors.

Cointegration analysis with structural changes between consumption and economic growth in China

In order to investigate the existence of a stable long-run equilibrium relationship between economic growth and consumption in China, the relationship between the gross domestic product （GDP） and consumption in China was investigated by the cointegration analysis method. Using the Engle-Granger （EG） test and considering the possibility of structural changes, the impact of external economic shocks on the long-run equilibrium relationship between economic growth and consumption in China was analyzed. Analysis results show that without considering structural changes, the EG test cannot detect cointegration in the series subjected to structural changes; in considering structural changes, cointegration is successfully detected by specifying the dummy variable. In addition, the error correction models were constructed in different periods. This study verifies the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between economic growth and consumption in China, and this relationship has significantly changed in 1989 and 1997, respectively.

Overcoming the contradiction between promoting economic growth and transforming the economic growth pattern

Promoting economic growth has become the first and foremost objective of macro-control since China experienced a drastic economic downturn in the fourth quarter of 2008. Now China is at a special stage of transition characterized by the transformation of the economic growth mode. While promoting economic growth, the government must effectively coordinate the relationship between economic growth and the transformation of growth mode. This is not a task that can be done easily. To promote economic growth, the central government has selected a number of industries and formulated an industrial revitalization plan for each of these them. Revitalizing these industries helps promote economic growth at the present stage but propelling these industries alone still cannot fully meet the requirements for transforming the economic growth pattern. To coordinate the relationship between promoting economic growth and transforming the economic growth pattern, it is currently imperative to adjust China’s industrial upgrading strategy and to pay attention to intra-industrial upgrading, particularly process upgrading.

The Impact of Climate Change on China＇s Grain Market and Food Security-- A CGE Model Approach

This paper examines the impact of climate change on China＇s grain production and food security. The research is one of the four studies on future conditions of China＇s food production system under the influence of climate change using numerical simulation methods, carried out under a national 973 project entitled ＂impacts of climate change on food systems in China and its adaptation＂. The other three studies focus on changes in cultivated land area and food production, while this study incorporates their grain yield results into a general equilibrium model to simulate future conditions of the grain market. Our simulation analysis arrives at the impact of climate change by comparing such economic variables as grain production, consumption, and GDP growth rate between a baseline scenario and two climate change scenarios. Our results are summarized as follows： （1） In 2050, the total grain production will reach 689.683 million tons--584.264 million tons of total grain consumption and 42.808 million tons of exports. Without considering losses and inventory demand, in 2050 China＇s grain supply and demand will remain well balanced, with a slight surplus expected. （2） Climate change is expected to benefit China＇s macro economy and individual sectors. In comparison with the baseline scenario of no climate change, real wage, real GDP, investment, household consumption, exports, and other macroeconomic indicators will rise under the climate change scenarios. As far as the agricultural, manufacturing, and service sectors are concerned, production, consumption, imports, and exports will each be favorably affected by climate change. （3） The favorable impact of climate change on China＇s macroeconomy and individual sectors under the high emissions scenario （A2） is stronger than that under the low emissions scenario （B2）. （4） In the grain market, climate change is expected to increase supply, reduce imports, increase supply, and demand; and supply will increase more than demand does. All in all, if taking into the fertilization effect of CO2 account, climate change is expected to strengthen China＇s grain supply and safeguard food security.

Basic conditions study to accelerate the realization of transformation of Shaanxi＇s economy growth mode

It is an urgent and important economic work in the moment and the next period for China to realize the transformation of economic growth mode. Relatively, there must be certain basic conditions. This article makes elaboration of the basic conditions, which accelerate the change of Shaanxi＇s economic growth mode from government angle, and proposes countermeasures for it, according to Shaanxi＇s situation and the requirement of scientific development concept, in order to provide basis for the government＇s economic growth transformation.

Empirical Analysis of Economic Growth in Sichuan Province

For a long time, the factors influencing a regional economic growth are mainly workforce, capital and scientific and technological progress. But with the further promotion of China＇s reform and opening-up and intensification of the further improvement degree, the main factors influencing a regional economic growth constantly change. This paper utilizes the relevant data of Sichuan to set up the econometric model and quantitatively studies the factors influencing economic growth of Sichuan. Through comparing the greatness that each factor influences the economic growth of Sichuan, the paper takes system changes as leading factor to influence the economic growth during 1984-2003 of Sichuan. At the same time, the upgrading of industrial structure will be a core of economic growth in the future, and the scientific and technological progress is the potential force of economic growth.

Changes in China--Beijing is seeking less energy-intensive economic growth ＆ a less carbon-intensive energy mix and its impact over oil ＆ gas supply

Having experienced over 30 years of rapid growth,China’s economic development is entering a new normal featured by an ever optimizing economic structure shifting from high-speed to medium-high speed growth,and from factor-driven to innovation-driven pattern.In adapting

CHANGES FOR CHINA'S FOREIGN TRADE GROWTH

In 1996,China began to set targets for quadrupling its per capitaaverage GNP for a better livelihood and socialist market economicsystem——a kind of mature opening economy in the Ninth Five-YearPlan period(1996-2000),aiming at comformity with the worldeconomy.For these purposes,it is essential to expand China’sopening to the outside for its foreign trade to boom and thus make fulluse of foreign and domestic markets for accelerating our economicdevelopment and upgrading development efficiency.In other words,China’s foreign trade development in the Ninth Five-Year Planperiod will greatly affect and control our economic growth andeconomic system reform.

Balancing Carbon Emission Reductions and Social Economic Development for Sustainable Development: Experience from 24 Countries

The impact of human carbon emissions on climate has generated widespread global concern. We selected 24 countries as research objects and analysed the changes in carbon emissions in different countries between the establishment of emission reduction actions in 1990 and 2014. Then, we selected 19 factors representing four categories(economy, population, technology and energy) to explore the key factors that led to changes in carbon dioxide(CO2) emissions in different countries. Emission reduction actions since 1990 did not lead to marked improvements, and only five countries(Russia, Germany, the United Kingdom, Italy and France) achieved reductions in carbon emissions. The factors that influenced CO2 emissions varied among countries. In most developing countries, reductions in CO2 emissions were caused by reductions in poverty and inherent natural conditions. Moreover, the extent of influence of a given factor on CO2 emissions differed among countries. The global economic crisis may cause similar fluctuations in CO2 emissions in many countries. Adjustments to energy and industrial structures are the main reason for the reduction in carbon emissions, whereas economic growth and urbanization are the two major contributors to the growth of carbon emissions. According to historical carbon emissions data, a green energy revolution must be implemented to address global climate change and ensure the sustainable development of human societies.

Current situation and trend of arable land change in China

How to protect arable land in the process of economic development and urbanization is a critical issue in China. In this paper, an attempt is made to analyze the situation of arable land change in China and it's relationship with population growth, economic development and urbanization. In depth analysis is also made in different regions. Forecasting is conducted to show the trend of arable land change in China based on the results of correlation analysis. Some suggestions are put forward for the policy making of reasonable utilization and protection of arable land in the future.

Exploring the relationship between climate change and violent conflict

Does climate change lead to violent conflict? This article reviews the existing literature connecting climatic conditions to conflict. It finds that the existing literature has not detected a robust and general effect from climate to conflict onset. Moreover, there exists scientific agreement that climatic changes can contribute to conflict under some conditions and through certain pathways.In particular, the recent literature offers considerable suggestive evidence that climatic changes can lead to conflict in countries and/or regions, which are dependent on agriculture, host politically excluded groups, and have ineffective institutions. Future research should focus not only on understanding of the pathways and contexts in which climatic changes are most likely to increase or exacerbate the risk of conflict but also work to understand the mechanisms by which climate variability and change might cause conflict.

The Impacts of the Growth of the Three Industries and Industrial Price Structural Changes on China’s Economic Growth between 1952 and 2019

This paper focuses on the impacts and effects of China’s growth of the three industries and price structural change on the real GDP growth rate.First of all,it presents a new accounting method for decomposing growth rates on the basis of existing accounting method for decomposing growth rates.By using this method,we can identify the impacts and effects of structural changes on the growth rate.The paper uses a new decomposition method to recalculate China’s industry-based real GDP growth rates between 1952 and 2019,focuses on the driving effect of growth of the three industries on the real GDP growth,and the impacts of price structural change on GDP growth rate and the contributin of the growth of the three industries on GDP growth rate.By analysis,this paper shows that between 1952 and 2019 China’s economic growth was mainly driven by the secondary industry,which had contributed to the economic growth by over 50%,the role of the tertiary industry in driving economic growth rose,but that of the secondary industry declined over the time;in the short run,the overall effect of the price structural changes of the three industries has a little impact on the economic growth,but the price change of each industry has strong effects,and the price structural change has signifi cantly changed the effect of the growth of the three industries on the real economic growth;in the long term,the price structural change plays a relatively big hindering effect on economic growth due to the Baumol’s cost disease.

Effect of toroidal mode coupling on explosive dynamics of m/n=3/1 double tearing mode

The CLT code was used to quantitatively study the impact of toroidal mode coupling on the explosive dynamics of the m/n=3/1 double tearing mode.The focus of this study was on explosive reconnection processes,in which the energy bursts and the main mode no longer dominates when the separation between two rational surfaces is relatively large in the medium range.The development of higher m and n modes is facilitated by a relatively large separation between two rational surfaces,a small q_(min)(the minimum value of the safety factor),or low resistivity.The relationships between the higher m and n mode development,explosive reconnection rate,and position exchange of 3/1 islands are summarized for the first time.Separation plays a more important role than q_(min)in enhancing the development of higher m and n modes.At a relatively large separation,the good development of higher m and n modes greatly reduces the reconnection rate and suppresses the development of the main mode,resulting in the main mode not being able to develop sufficiently large to generate the position changes of 3/1 islands.

百年变局与大国关系的中长期演变

在百年未有之大变局视角下,大国力量最本质和持久的因素仍然是经济力量。看待中美经济力量变化时,既要重视短期变化,但更要重视长期趋势。从短期来看,中国经济总量赶超美国经济总量的速度有所减缓,但仍存在超越美国的可能。从长期来看,基于PPP测算的经济力量对比,将康德拉季耶夫周期和权力转移理论相结合,有助于更好地理解国际冲突和地缘政治变化。由于收入水平较低的国家基于上述两种算法会有不同的经济地位,而这种差别是造成近年来俄罗斯和印度在国际舞台上冲突性行动加剧的重要原因。日本因为熟悉政府能力与经济增长的复杂关系,倾向于低估中国的长期经济增长前景,进而导致日本在战略上始终追随美国。不过,俄乌冲突使美国组建包括欧盟、日本和印度在内的大联盟的成效大打折扣。

冷季不同饲养管理模式对牦牛生长、脂肪沉积及养殖效益的影响

冷季不同饲养管理模式对牦牛生长性能、脂肪沉积及养殖经济效益等产生重要影响。本研究在冷季分别对公牦牛进行自然放牧(SEG1组)和投喂不同粗精比的饲粮,结果表明:与SEG1组相比,补饲组牦牛平均日增重(ADG)显著提高(P<0.05);补饲组碱性磷酸酶(ALP)、总胆固醇(TC)、甘油三酯(TG)、葡萄糖(GLU)、高密度脂蛋白胆固醇(HDL-C)、低密度脂蛋白胆固醇(LDL-C)、游离脂肪酸(NEFA)、脂肪酸合成酶(FAS)和脂蛋白脂酶(LPL)含量显著高于SEG1组(P<0.05);各补饲组牦牛肝脏组织内脂滴表达面积百分比显著高于SEG1组(P<0.05),各补饲组之间也存在显著差异(P<0.05);与SEG1组相比,SEC50组、SEC30组和SEC10组牦牛养殖利润分别提高228.77%,258.69%和115.52%。综上所述,冷季补饲管理可有效提高牦牛的生长性能,增强机体脂肪沉积和代谢功能,提高牦牛养殖经济效益,补饲饲粮粗精料比为70∶30效果最佳。

创新驱动能治愈“鲍莫尔病”吗?——基于技术创新视角的分析

“鲍莫尔病”描述了发达经济体在经济服务化过程中所经历的经济增长降速甚至停滞的困境。中国经济增长也存在经济服务化带来的结构性减速问题,如何克服“鲍莫尔病”对我国长期经济增长的不利影响?基于技术创新视角的产业结构变迁及其经济增长效应的研究发现:研发效率和知识产权保护决定了行业间的研发投入强度差异,进而影响其技术进步率;内生经济增长中存在技术效率和配置效率,两种效率在一定条件下将导致经济增长出现结构性减速趋势;研发效率和知识产权保护的平衡和非平衡变化通过优化产业结构及其技术进步率来缓解“鲍莫尔病”问题。因此,完善创新制度、提升创新环境以及促进产业部门协调发展将有利于一国或一地区的经济可持续增长。

中国经济增长的动力溯源:人口红利还是教育红利?

在全面建设现代化产业体系过程中,充分挖掘人口资源优势对中国经济转型的影响作用至关重要。文章利用中国30个省份的面板数据,实证分析了2000—2021年劳动要素在中国经济中的贡献作用与门槛特征。结果表明:在中国经济增长过程中,人口红利与教育红利长期存在,教育红利一直是促进中国经济增长的主要动力因素;而在产业结构变迁过程中,人口红利的波动特征更为明显,人口红利与教育红利随着产业合理化水平的提升而减弱,随着产业高级化的推进而增强。由此提出,要在优化产业结构的同时稳定人口增长速度,促进教育人力资本的持续提升以及农村劳动力的合理流动。

基于特征构建的区域电力负荷增长归因及量化分析方法

电力负荷由于受到气温、经济、特殊事件等多种因素及多因素耦合影响,增长成因量化分析困难。同时,目前对于电力负荷研究多集中于预测方面,对负荷增长原因分析较少。通过研究电力负荷数据特征构建方法,提出一种电力负荷增长归因分析方法。首先,构建气象相关性指标、基于经济发展的自然负荷增长指标、基于电力电量修正的产业结构变化指标以及事件趋势一致性评价指标;在此基础上,分别提取气象负荷、自然经济负荷、业扩负荷、随机负荷,利用贡献率量化各因素对负荷增长的影响程度。最后,利用西北某2省的电力电量数据进行验证,结果显示所提方法能够很好地量化负荷增长的原因。