Politics is an important cause of economic growth and fluctuations.We present a new Political Business Cycle(PBC)Theory based on the background of recent Chinese economic transformation and government behaviors,explor...Politics is an important cause of economic growth and fluctuations.We present a new Political Business Cycle(PBC)Theory based on the background of recent Chinese economic transformation and government behaviors,explore the economic impact of the National Congress of the Communist Party of China(CPC),the National People’s Congress(NPC)and Chinese People’s Political Consultive Conference(CPPCC)and how they shape and influence the behaviors of local government officials.Based on 1994-2012 inter-provincial panel data of China and using SYS-GMM and LSDVC,we find that there are significant effects in China of PBC and government administration change.Changes in government administration influence the economic behaviors of local governments,which in turn influence local economic development through fiscal decentralization and political promotion tournament.These effects are sustained and robust.In this paper we offer an economic explanation for the Chinese proverb“a new broom sweeps clean,”and try to verify the Chinese-style Political Business Cycle(CPBC).We provide new ideas for further improving the functions of government,optimizing macroeconomic control,and preventing personnel changes in the government from overheating the economy.展开更多
基金National Social Science Fund“The Institutional Poverty and the Poverty Reduction Model of Inclusive Growth”(11CJL033)The Philosophy and Social Science Planning Fund in Zhejing Province“Estimation of the Conversion Cost of Farmer Citizens in Zhejiang Province and the Study of Public Policy Choice”(14NDJC120YB)The commissioned project in Zhejiang province“the Impact of Political Environment on the Economic and Trade Cooperation between Zhejiang and Taiwan”(201401).
文摘Politics is an important cause of economic growth and fluctuations.We present a new Political Business Cycle(PBC)Theory based on the background of recent Chinese economic transformation and government behaviors,explore the economic impact of the National Congress of the Communist Party of China(CPC),the National People’s Congress(NPC)and Chinese People’s Political Consultive Conference(CPPCC)and how they shape and influence the behaviors of local government officials.Based on 1994-2012 inter-provincial panel data of China and using SYS-GMM and LSDVC,we find that there are significant effects in China of PBC and government administration change.Changes in government administration influence the economic behaviors of local governments,which in turn influence local economic development through fiscal decentralization and political promotion tournament.These effects are sustained and robust.In this paper we offer an economic explanation for the Chinese proverb“a new broom sweeps clean,”and try to verify the Chinese-style Political Business Cycle(CPBC).We provide new ideas for further improving the functions of government,optimizing macroeconomic control,and preventing personnel changes in the government from overheating the economy.
