The best track dataset of tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific (WNP) and the South China Sea (SCS) from 1977 to 2005 during the satellite era, the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset and the extended reconstruc...The best track dataset of tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific (WNP) and the South China Sea (SCS) from 1977 to 2005 during the satellite era, the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset and the extended reconstructed sea surface temperature dataset are employed in this study. The main climatological characteristics of tropical cyclone formation over the WNP and the SCS are compared. It is found that there is obviously different for the locations of tropical cyclone origins, achieving the lowest central pressure and termination points between over the WNP and over the SCS. The annual number of tropical cyclones forming over the SCS is obviously less than over the WNP, and there is a significant negative correlation with the correlation coefficient being - 0.36 at the 5% significance level between over the WNP and over the SCS. The mean speed of tropical cyclone moving is 6.5 m/s over the WNP and 4.6 m/s over the SCS. The mean lowest central pressure of tropical cyclones is obviously weaker over the SCS than over the WNP. The tropical cyclone days per year, mean total distance and total displacement of tropical cyclone traveled over the WNP are all obviously longer than those over the SCS. Tropical cyclone may intensify to Saffir - Simpson hurricane scale 5 over the WNP, but no tropical cyclone can intensify to Saffir - Simpson hurricane scale 3 over the SCS. The changing ranges of the radii (R15,R16) of the 15.4 m/s winds them and the 25.7 m/s winds over the WNP are obviously wider than those over the SCS, and the median values of the radii over the WNP are also larger than those over the SCS. For the same intensity of tropical cyclones, both radii have larger medians over the WNP than over the SCS. The correlations of annual mean tropical cyclone size parameters between over the WNP and over the SCS are not significant. At the same time, the asymmetric radii of tropical cyclones over the WNP are different from those over the SCS.展开更多
Using the daily average of the NCEP/DOE AMIP-II reanalysis data from 1979 to 2005 and the characteristics of monsoon troughs in the western North Pacific,we established an intensity index and a location index to descr...Using the daily average of the NCEP/DOE AMIP-II reanalysis data from 1979 to 2005 and the characteristics of monsoon troughs in the western North Pacific,we established an intensity index and a location index to describe the activity of the monsoon troughs in three different regions and their impacts on tropical cyclones generated therein(MTTCs).The behavior of the monsoon troughs was analyzed.The following conclusions are obtained:(1)The established monsoon trough intensity index has a positive correlation to the location index,indicating that stronger monsoon trough intensity corresponds to more northward location.(2)Monsoon trough intensity exhibits significant interannual variation,with obvious periods of 4–5 years prior to 1994 and 2–3 years afterwards.(3)The affecting factors on monsoon trough intensity are different with areas.The preceding SST anomaly results in anomalous atmospheric circulation, leading to the anomaly of monsoon trough intensity in different areas.(4)The frequency of cyclogenesis and location anomalies of the MTTC are closely related to the intensity and location of the monsoon trough. Most of the anomalously less MTTC years coincide with the years with a weak general monsoon trough and weak regional monsoon troughs.The anomalously more MTTC years are associated with both a strong general monsoon trough and a weak general monsoon trough combined with a strong one over the South China Sea,though with a larger probability for the latter.(5)The interseasonal variation of the intensity of monsoon troughs provides favorable conditions for TC generation and development.The monsoon trough is in the active periods of both quasi-biweekly 10 to 20 day and 30 to 60 day oscillations,which is favorable for MTTC occurrence.展开更多
Variations in the high-frequency oscillations of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the western North Pacific (WNP) are studied in numerical model simulations. Power spectrum analysis of maximum wind speeds at 10 m (MW...Variations in the high-frequency oscillations of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the western North Pacific (WNP) are studied in numerical model simulations. Power spectrum analysis of maximum wind speeds at 10 m (MWS10) from an ensemble of 15 simulated TCs shows that oscillations are significant for all TCs. The magnitudes of oscillations in MWS10 are similar in the WNP and South China Sea (SCS); however, the mean of the averaged significant periods in the SCS (1.93 h) is shorter than that in the open water of the WNP (2.83 h). The shorter period in the SCS is examined through an ensemble of simulations, and a case simulation as well as a sensitivity experiment in which the continent is replaced by ocean for Typhoon Hagupit (2008). The analysis of the convergence efficiency within the boundary layer suggests that the shorter periods in the SCS are possibly due to the stronger terrain effect, which intensifies convergence through greater friction. The enhanced convergence strengthens the disturbance of the gradient and thermal wind balances, and then contributes to the shorter oscillation periods in the SCS.展开更多
The differences in the characteristics of the rapid intensification(RI)during the TCs that form in the SCS(referred as local TCs)and that enter the SCS from the western North Pacific(WNP;referred as entering TCs)have ...The differences in the characteristics of the rapid intensification(RI)during the TCs that form in the SCS(referred as local TCs)and that enter the SCS from the western North Pacific(WNP;referred as entering TCs)have not been well studied,which could contribute the inaccuracy of current TC intensity forecast in the SCS.In this study,we used TC observations,reanalysis data and model experiments to analyze the RI occurrences during local TCs and entering TCs in 1980-2016.We found that the significant interannual and interdecadal variations in RI occurrences during local eastward-moving TCs were related to the strong intraseasonal oscillation(ISO)over the SCS and the WNP under La Niña conditions.RI during local westward-moving TCs showed insignificant variations as a result of the complex interactions among the monsoon trough,ISO and the large-scale circulation.RI during entering TCs showed strong interdecadal variations,with increased RI after 1997,even though the total number of entering TCs has decreased since 1997,which is a result of a higher number of entering TCs in the northwestern quadrant of the WNP,a stronger ISO and weak vertical windshear over the SCS and east of the Philippines under negative phase of Pacific Decadal Oscillation.The different variations and related mechanisms of RI indicates that distinct forecasting factors should be considered for intensity prediction during local eastward-and westward-moving TCs and entering TCs.展开更多
文摘The best track dataset of tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific (WNP) and the South China Sea (SCS) from 1977 to 2005 during the satellite era, the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset and the extended reconstructed sea surface temperature dataset are employed in this study. The main climatological characteristics of tropical cyclone formation over the WNP and the SCS are compared. It is found that there is obviously different for the locations of tropical cyclone origins, achieving the lowest central pressure and termination points between over the WNP and over the SCS. The annual number of tropical cyclones forming over the SCS is obviously less than over the WNP, and there is a significant negative correlation with the correlation coefficient being - 0.36 at the 5% significance level between over the WNP and over the SCS. The mean speed of tropical cyclone moving is 6.5 m/s over the WNP and 4.6 m/s over the SCS. The mean lowest central pressure of tropical cyclones is obviously weaker over the SCS than over the WNP. The tropical cyclone days per year, mean total distance and total displacement of tropical cyclone traveled over the WNP are all obviously longer than those over the SCS. Tropical cyclone may intensify to Saffir - Simpson hurricane scale 5 over the WNP, but no tropical cyclone can intensify to Saffir - Simpson hurricane scale 3 over the SCS. The changing ranges of the radii (R15,R16) of the 15.4 m/s winds them and the 25.7 m/s winds over the WNP are obviously wider than those over the SCS, and the median values of the radii over the WNP are also larger than those over the SCS. For the same intensity of tropical cyclones, both radii have larger medians over the WNP than over the SCS. The correlations of annual mean tropical cyclone size parameters between over the WNP and over the SCS are not significant. At the same time, the asymmetric radii of tropical cyclones over the WNP are different from those over the SCS.
基金An open project of Key Laboratory for Meteorological Disasters for Jiangsu Province(KLME0708)Natural Science Foundation of China(90915002+2 种基金4077504740775058)A project of Young Talents for Fujian Province(2007F3019)
文摘Using the daily average of the NCEP/DOE AMIP-II reanalysis data from 1979 to 2005 and the characteristics of monsoon troughs in the western North Pacific,we established an intensity index and a location index to describe the activity of the monsoon troughs in three different regions and their impacts on tropical cyclones generated therein(MTTCs).The behavior of the monsoon troughs was analyzed.The following conclusions are obtained:(1)The established monsoon trough intensity index has a positive correlation to the location index,indicating that stronger monsoon trough intensity corresponds to more northward location.(2)Monsoon trough intensity exhibits significant interannual variation,with obvious periods of 4–5 years prior to 1994 and 2–3 years afterwards.(3)The affecting factors on monsoon trough intensity are different with areas.The preceding SST anomaly results in anomalous atmospheric circulation, leading to the anomaly of monsoon trough intensity in different areas.(4)The frequency of cyclogenesis and location anomalies of the MTTC are closely related to the intensity and location of the monsoon trough. Most of the anomalously less MTTC years coincide with the years with a weak general monsoon trough and weak regional monsoon troughs.The anomalously more MTTC years are associated with both a strong general monsoon trough and a weak general monsoon trough combined with a strong one over the South China Sea,though with a larger probability for the latter.(5)The interseasonal variation of the intensity of monsoon troughs provides favorable conditions for TC generation and development.The monsoon trough is in the active periods of both quasi-biweekly 10 to 20 day and 30 to 60 day oscillations,which is favorable for MTTC occurrence.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41405048, 41675043, 41375050, 41205032 and 41775094)Independent Research Project Program of State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography (Grant No. LTOZZ1603)
文摘Variations in the high-frequency oscillations of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the western North Pacific (WNP) are studied in numerical model simulations. Power spectrum analysis of maximum wind speeds at 10 m (MWS10) from an ensemble of 15 simulated TCs shows that oscillations are significant for all TCs. The magnitudes of oscillations in MWS10 are similar in the WNP and South China Sea (SCS); however, the mean of the averaged significant periods in the SCS (1.93 h) is shorter than that in the open water of the WNP (2.83 h). The shorter period in the SCS is examined through an ensemble of simulations, and a case simulation as well as a sensitivity experiment in which the continent is replaced by ocean for Typhoon Hagupit (2008). The analysis of the convergence efficiency within the boundary layer suggests that the shorter periods in the SCS are possibly due to the stronger terrain effect, which intensifies convergence through greater friction. The enhanced convergence strengthens the disturbance of the gradient and thermal wind balances, and then contributes to the shorter oscillation periods in the SCS.
基金supported by the Key Special Project for Introduced Talents Team of Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Guangzhou)(GML2019ZD0306)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41676017,92158204)+2 种基金Guangzhou City Project(202102080482)the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA20060500)the Independent Research Project Program of State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography(LTOZZ2005).
文摘The differences in the characteristics of the rapid intensification(RI)during the TCs that form in the SCS(referred as local TCs)and that enter the SCS from the western North Pacific(WNP;referred as entering TCs)have not been well studied,which could contribute the inaccuracy of current TC intensity forecast in the SCS.In this study,we used TC observations,reanalysis data and model experiments to analyze the RI occurrences during local TCs and entering TCs in 1980-2016.We found that the significant interannual and interdecadal variations in RI occurrences during local eastward-moving TCs were related to the strong intraseasonal oscillation(ISO)over the SCS and the WNP under La Niña conditions.RI during local westward-moving TCs showed insignificant variations as a result of the complex interactions among the monsoon trough,ISO and the large-scale circulation.RI during entering TCs showed strong interdecadal variations,with increased RI after 1997,even though the total number of entering TCs has decreased since 1997,which is a result of a higher number of entering TCs in the northwestern quadrant of the WNP,a stronger ISO and weak vertical windshear over the SCS and east of the Philippines under negative phase of Pacific Decadal Oscillation.The different variations and related mechanisms of RI indicates that distinct forecasting factors should be considered for intensity prediction during local eastward-and westward-moving TCs and entering TCs.