Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Bridgetown-Barbados, Employing Subduction Interface Characteristic Earthquakes

A new probabilistic seismic hazard analysis was performed for the city of Bridgetown, Barbados, West Indies. Hazard computations have been performed using the standard Cornell-McGuire approach based on the definition of appropriate seismogenic sources and expected maximum magnitudes, the authors take into consideration the possibility of large subduction interface earthquakes of magnitude 8.0-9.0 beneath the Barbados accretionary prism via application of a characteristic model and slip rates. The analysis has been conducted using a standard logic-tree approach. Uniform hazard spectra have been calculated for the 5% of critical damping and the horizontal component of ground motion for rock site conditions setting 5 return periods （95, 475, 975, 2,475 and 4,975 years） and spectral accelerations for 34 structural periods ranging from 0 to 3 s. The disaggregation results suggest that the magnitude-distance pair that dominates the hazard yields M 7.4 and 8.6 and a distance of 42.5 km in the Interface Subduction Zone beneath Barbados for the 475 and 975 years RP （return period）, respectively. An event with an M 8.0 at a distance of 107.5 km in the Intraplate Subduction Zone is the second scenario that dominates the hazard for both 475 and 975 years RP.

Research on the Extraction of OLR Anomaly Prior to Ms 7.5 Sand Point,Alaska Earthquake based on IPI Method

Based on the understanding that the seismic fault system is a nonlinear complex system,Rundle(1995)introduced the nonlinear threshold system used in meteorology to analyze the ocean-atmosphere interface and the El Ni?o Southern Oscillation into the study of seismic activity changes,and then proposed the PI method(Rundle et al.,2000a,b).Wu et al.(2011)modified the Pattern Informatics Method named MPI to extract the ionospheric anomaly by using data from DEMETER satellites which is suitable for 1–3 months short-term prediction.

Relation between the characteristics of strong earthquake activities in Chinese mainland and the Wenchuan earthquake

This paper studies the relations between the great Wenchuan earthquake and the active-quiet periodic characteristics of strong earthquakes, the rhythmic feature of great earthquakes, and the grouped spatial distribution of Ms8.0 earthquakes in Chinese mainland. We also studied the relation between the Wenchuan earthquake and the stepwise migration characteristics of Ms≥7.0 earthquakes on the North-South seismic belt, the features of the energy releasing acceleration in the active crustal blocks related to the Wenchuan earthquake and the relation between the Wenchuan earthquake and the so called second-arc fault zone. The results can be summarized as follows： ① the occurrence of the Wenchuan earthquake was consistent with the activequiet periodic characteristics of strong earthquakes; ② its occurrence is consistent with the features of grouped occurrence of Ms8.0 earthquakes and follows the 25 years rhythm （each circulation experiences the same time） of great earthquakes; ③ the Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake follows the well known stepwise migration feature of strong earthquakes on the North-South seismic belt; ④ the location where the Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake took place has an obvious consistency with the temporal and spatial characteristic of grouped activity of Ms≥7.0 strong earthquakes on the second-arc fault zone; ⑤ the second-arc fault zone is not only the lower boundary for earthquakes with more than 30 km focal depth, but also looks like a lower boundary for deep substance movement; and ⑥ there are obvious seismic accelerations nearby the Qaidam and Qiangtang active crustal blocks （the northern and southern neighbors of the Bayan Har active block, respectively）, which agrees with the GPS observation data.

Study on the characteristics of earthquake's impact on cities

Firstly, the impact of historical earthquakes on 34 China province-level capital cities is evaluated by using historical earthquake catalog. The distribution of affected intensity shows, about 53% of cities have even not been affected by earthquake intensity VI, and 44% of cities have been hit by earthquake intensity VII to IX. For most of the cities, occurrence frequency of affected intensity VI is usually higher than that of affected intensity larger than VI, and the value of affected intensity with maximal occurrence frequency may be very different among cities. So both the maximal affected intensity and the affected intensity with maximal occurrence frequency should be taken into account when the prevention seismic intensity needs to be determined. Secondly, considering the incompleteness of records of historical earthquakes, a method of earthquake catalog computer simulation is introduced to study the features of affected intensity of big cities. 69 county-level cities of Fujian Province are selected to be statistical objects. The statistical result shows, for different risk levels the seismic intensity changes greatly among cities, the seismic intensity of 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years can be regarded as the characteristic affected intensity of city, and can be the basis of determining the city special earthquake prevention level and a proper indicator of future earthquakes impact on cities.

A catastrophic debris flow in the Wenchuan Earthquake area,July 2013：characteristics,formation,and risk reduction

In the Wenchuan Earthquake area,many co-seismic landslides formed blocking-dams in debris flow channels. This blocking and bursting of landslide dams amplifies the debris flow scale and results in severe catastrophes. The catastrophic debris flow that occurred in Qipan gully(Wenchuan,Southwest China) on July 11,2013 was caused by intense rainfall and upstream cascading bursting of landslide dams. To gain an understanding of the processes of dam bursting and subsequent debris flow scale amplification effect,we attempted to estimate the bursting debris flow peak discharges along the main gully and analyzed the scale amplification process. The results showed that the antecedent and triggering rainfalls for 11 July debris flow event were 88.0 mm and 21.6 mm,respectively. The event highlights the fact that lower rainfall intensity can trigger debris flows after the earthquake. Calculations of the debris flow peak discharge showed that the peak discharges after the dams-bursting were 1.17–1.69 times greater than the upstream peak discharge. The peak discharge at the gully outlet reached 2553 m^3/s which was amplified by 4.76 times in comparison with the initial peak discharge in the upstream. To mitigate debris flow disasters,a new drainage channel with a trapezoidal V-shaped cross section was proposed. The characteristic lengths(h1 and h2) under optimal hydraulic conditions were calculated as 4.50 m and 0.90 m,respectively.

Preliminary Research on the Characteristics of the M_S8.0 Wenchuan Earthquake Hazard

The Ms8.0 Wenchuan earthquake on May 12, 2008 caused heavy casualties and economic loss. According to the field investigations, the characteristics can be described as follows： The meizoseismai region with an intensity of XI shows an obviously zonal distribution and suffered serious destruction from the earthquake, and the destruction perpendicular to the earthquake surface rupture decreased sharply. At the same time, the intensity X and IX regions perpendicular to the rupture are narrow and therefore their coverage area is small. The intensity on both sides of the rupture attenuates rapidly, but intensity VII and the VI regions are wide, the latter covering about 240,000 km^2. In intensity VI region, the damage area perpendicular to the rupture in the southern part is much larger than that of the northern part. Also, much new understanding about destruction types and destructive modes for all kinds of buildings, landforms and terrain is achieved in this paper.

Tracing the Forecast of Earthquakes Based on the Seismicity Characteristics of the Chi-Chi Strong Earthquake Swarm Sequence

The data of earthquakes with M ≥3 0 during the 7 years from September 21, 1993 to September 20, 2000 recorded by the Taiwan Central Weather Bureau (CWB) show that there were 6 types of clear characteristics of seismicity during the Chi Chi strong earthquake swarm of September 21 These 6 types of characteristics are (1) foreshock types, (2) seismic gaps, (3) seismic bands, (4) clustering activity of foreshocks and signal shock, (5) quiescence before the main shock and (6) secondary aftershocks in the aftershock sequence. Using the procedures for analyzing the yearly strong earthquake tendency, further tracing based on the earthquake sequence characteristics, and taking the Chi Chi earthquake sequence as an example, tracing analysis of the earthquake tendency was attempted using the shorter time range of monthly rather than in a yearly time scale. An attempt was made to establish the procedures for tracing analysis of shallow focus earthquakes in the seismic belt of western Taiwan. It is hoped that this can provide an analystical method for approaching the short imminent time scale of seismometry based earthquake forecasting.

Evidence of earthquakes triggered by the tidal force of the sun and the moon——On the temporal characteristics of the earthquakes in Xingtai,Hejian and Tangshan

Studies by many scientists show that Hebei, China is an area with strong correlation between the tidal force and the occurrences of major earthquakes, the Xingtai earthquake of 1966, the Hejian earthquake of 1967 and the Tangshan earthquake of 1976 were triggered by the tidal force, in this paper the study on the common characteristics of their occurrence times confirms these facts. The computed times of maximum horizontal of the semi diurnal solid tide tidal force show that the occurrence times of the above mentioned earthquakes were close to the times of maximum horizontal tidal force of the semi diurnal solid tide at new moon or full moon. The Longyao earthquake of M =6.8, the Ningjin earthquake of M =7.2 and the Hejian earthquake of M =6.3 occurred tens of minutes after the maximum horizontal tidal force of the semi diurnal solid tides, and the Tangshan earthquake of M =7.8 occurred 16 minutes before the maximum horizontal tidal force. The tidal forces were directed to the west. This is their temporal characteristic. It is generally accepted that the 1969 Bohai earthquake of M =7.4 and the 1975 Haicheng earthquake were not triggered by the tidal force. These events did not show such characteristics. The temporal characteristics of the earthquakes indicate that the occurrences of these events were not random, but were controlled by the tidal force from the sun and the moon, and triggered by the tidal force. These facts agree with the triggering mechanism of the tidal force, are evidences of earthquakes triggered by tidal force.

Regional crustal deformation characteristic before 2016 Yuncheng M4.4 earthquake swarm based on CMONOC continuous GPS data

To further study regional deformation characteristic in the southeast margin of Ordos Block during the period between the Alanshan M5.8 and Yuncheng M4.4 earthquake swarm, we analyze continuous GPS sites around the study area. The time-varying strain parameters removed a linear trend deviated from the background state in varying degrees since April, 2015, and began to turn back at the end of the year 2015, meanwhile, the maximum extension strain and shear strain have the bigger variation relative to others. The GPS measurement also shows that the eastward displacement rate of the stations decreases during 2015-2016 in varying degrees compared to 2011-2015, and the variation is closely related to its geologic structural location. The differential movement between the stations is converted into regional strain accumulation due to the fault locking. Further- more, during 2015-2016, the maximum extension rate oriented at near NS direction obviously increased, and the maximum contraction strain direction is changed from NW to EW direction, which contributes to strengthen extension and shear strain of the NE- striking faults, it＇s consistent with the regional background strain state of Shanxi seismic zone, this may be an important contributor to occurrence of M4.4 earthquake swarm in Yuncheng basin.

Influence of Vertical Irregularity on the Seismic Behavior of Base Isolated RC Structures with Lead Rubber Bearings under Pulse-Like Earthquakes

Nowadays,an extensive number of studies related to the performance of base isolation systems implemented in regular reinforced concrete structures subjected to various types of earthquakes can be found in the literature.On the other hand,investigations regarding the irregular base-isolated reinforced concrete structures’performance when subjected to pulse-like earthquakes are very scarce.The severity of pulse-like earthquakes emerges from their ability to destabilize the base-isolated structure by remarkably increasing the displacement demands.Thus,this study is intended to investigate the effects of pulse-like earthquake characteristics on the behavior of low-rise irregular base-isolated reinforced concrete structures.Within the study scope,investigations related to the impact of the pulse-like earthquake characteristics,irregularity type,and isolator properties will be conducted.To do so,different values of damping ratios of the base isolation system were selected to investigate the efficiency of the lead rubber-bearing isolator.In general,the outcomes of the study have shown the significance of vertical irregularity on the performance of base-isolated structures and the considerable effect of pulse-like ground motions on the buildings’behavior.

Late Quaternary Activity and Strong Earthquake Recurrence Interval along the North Segment of the Longling-Ruili Fault

According to field investigation and interpretation of remote sensing images,the north segment of the Longling-Ruili fault is a Holocene dextral strike-slip fault with a small amount of normal faulting.Based on large-scale geological mapping at some typical locations and quantitative geomorphologic deformation measurement and dating analysis,this fault is a Holocene active fault.The strike-slip rate of the Longling-Ruili fault is 2.2 ~2.5mm / a and vertical slip rate is 0.6mm /a since the late Pleistocene epoch.The strike-slip rate of the Longling-Ruili fault is 1.8~3.0mm /a and vertical slip rate is 0.5mm /a since the Holocene epoch.Based on the Poisson model,lognormal model and BPT model,the occurrence probability of strong earthquakes in 50 years is estimated to be 6.32%,0.08%and 0.05%,respectively.Then,a 1.82% probability of occurrence of characteristic earthquake for the north segment of the Longling-Ruili fault is obtained by setting a weight of 0.28,0.36 and 0.36 to the Poisson model,lognormal model and BPT model,respectively.

Dynamic response law about gravity retaining wall to seismic characteristics and earth fill properties

In order to find the dynamic response laws of retaining walls affected by certain earthquake loads,the influence of the seismic wave characteristics and sub-grade fill parameters(including the foundation surface slope) were focused on,and a series of tests were performed.The results show that the maximum stress of the retaining wall decreases as internal friction angle,foundation slope,filled soil cohesion and the biggest dynamic elastic modulus increase,while it increases with the seismic frequency and seismic input peak dropping.The addition value of dynamics earth pressure increases when seismic frequency and seismic input peak are reduced,while it decreases when the filled soil cohesion and internal friction angle rise.Meanwhile,dynamic elastic modulus and foundation slope have no obvious influences on addition value of dynamics earth pressure.The slope will be instable if the seismic input peak exceeds 0.5g and be disruptive if seismic frequency is larger than 2.5 Hz.The mid-lower parts of retaining walls are in most heavy and obvious response to these factors,which reveals the mechanism of "belly burst" in retaining wall that appears commonly in practical projects.

Electromagnetic Abnormity Observed at Sujiatun Seismic Station and Its Relation toEarthquake

The Sujiatun seismic station is a local professional seismic observation station in the city of Shenyang, Liaoning province. Electromagnetic radiations observation apparatus, of the type EMAOS-L, are used there. In this paper, four years observation data and observed earthquakes with M_S≥4.0 were collected in the Sujiatun observation station. The characteristics of electromagnetic radiation abnormities and earthquakes are analyzed from such aspects as capabilities of the apparatus used, tectonic structure, origins of electromagnetic radiations and so on. By analysis, precursor abnormities observed at this observation station are remarkable. The electric and magnetic abnormities are with good synchronism and the abnormities can respond better to the earthquakes with the epicenter distance being less than 20km and taking place in the upper crust. At the same time, for earthquakes with large magnitudes, the variation of precursor abnormities shows a periodic diurnal variation.

Characteristics of strong earthquake evolution around the eastern boundary faults of the Sichuan-Yunnan rhombic block

Based on the existing materials of fault segmentation,characteristic earthquakes,and their empirical relationships,we calculated the parameters of the fault segments,such as length,width,magnitudes of characteristic earthquakes,etc.Constrained by GPS velocity field,the slip rates of these fault segments in depth were inversed using the 3-D half-space elastic dislocation model.As not all of the recurrence periods and co-seismic displacements of characteristic earthquakes are known,we selected the fault segments with these two parameters known and calculated the accumulation rate of average co-seismic displacement,which shows the faults' slip rate in seismogenic layer.Then,the slip rate in depth was compared with that in seismogenic layer,the relationship between them was obtained,and this relationship was used to get the recurrence periods and co-seismic displacements of all fault segments.After the studies above,we calculated the co-seismic deformation field of all the earthquakes larger than M s 6.8 from AD 1700 one by one and inversed the potential displacement in the co-seismic deformation field.Then,we divided the potential displacement by the slip rate from GPS inversion to get the influences of these fault segments,added the influences into the elapsed time of the characteristic earthquakes,and obtained the earthquake hazard degree of all the segments we studied in the form of the ratio of elapsed time to recurrence period;so,we name the ratio as the Impending Earthquake Risk (IER).Historical earthquake cases show that the fault segment is in safety when the IER is less than 1 but in danger after the IER becomes larger than 1.In 2009,the IER is larger than 1 on the following segments,1.35 on the Tagong segment of Xianshuihe fault,1 on the Menggu-Dongchuan segment,1.04 on the Dongchuan-Xundian segment,and 1.09 on the Yiliang-Chengjiang segment of Xiaojiang fault.

Site Earthquake Characteristics and Dynamic Parameter Test of Phase Ⅲ Qinshan Nuclear Power Engineering

The earthquake characteristics and geological structure of the site to sitting the Qinshan Nuclear Power Station are closely related. According to site investigation drilling, sampling, seismic sound logging wave test in single-hole and cross-hole, laboratory wave velocity test of intact rock, together with analysis of the site geological conditions, the seismic wave test results of the site between strata lithology and the geologic structure were studied. The relationships of seismic waves with the site lithology and the geologic structure were set up. The dynamic parameters of different grades of weathering profile were deduced. The results assist the seismic design of Phase Ⅲ Qinshan Nuclear Power Plant, China.