Geological reservoir and resource potential(10^(13)m^(3))of gas hydrates in the South China Sea

A detailed understanding of the distribution and potential of natural gas hydrate(NGHs)resources is crucial to fostering the industrialization of those resources in the South China Sea,where NGHs are abundant.In this study,this study analyzed the applicability of resource evaluation methods,including the volumetric,genesis,and analogy methods,and estimated NGHs resource potential in the South China Sea by using scientific resource evaluation methods based on the factors controlling the geological accumulation and the reservoir characteristics of NGHs.Furthermore,this study compared the evaluation results of NGHs resource evaluations in representative worldwise sea areas via rational analysis.The results of this study are as follows:(1)The gas hydrate accumulation in the South China Sea is characterized by multiple sources of gas supply,multi-channel migration,and extensive accumulation,which are significantly different from those of oil and gas and other unconventional resources.(2)The evaluation of gas hydrate resources in the South China Sea is a highly targeted,stratified,and multidisciplinary evaluation of geological resources under the framework of a multi-type gas hydrate resource evaluation system and focuses on the comprehensive utilization of multi-source heterogeneous data.(3)Global NGHs resources is n×10^(15)m^(3),while the NGHs resources in the South China Sea are estimated to be 10^(13)m^(3),which is comparable to the abundance of typical marine NGHs deposits in other parts of the world.In the South China Sea,the NGHs resources have a broad prospect and provide a substantial resource base for production tests and industrialization of NGHs.

Mesoscale and Microphysical Characteristics of a Double Rain Belt Event in South China on May 10–13,2022

A second rain belt sometimes occurs ahead of a frontal rain belt in the warm sector over coastal South China,leading to heavy precipitation.We examined the differences in the mesoscale characteristics and microphysics of the frontal and warm sector rain belts that occurred in South China on May 10–13,2022.The southern rain belt occurred in an environment with favorable mesoscale conditions but weak large-scale forcing.In contrast,the northern rain belt was related to low-level horizontal shear and the surface-level front.The interaction between the enhanced southeasterly winds and the rainfall-induced cold pool promoted the persistent growth of convection along the southern rain belt.The convective cell propagated east over the coastal area,where there was a large temperature gradient.The bow-shaped echo in this region may be closely related to the rear-inflow jet.By contrast,the initial convection of the northern rain belt was triggered along the front and the region of low-level horizontal shear,with mesoscale interactions between the enhanced warm-moist southeasterly airflow and the cold dome associated with the earlier rain.The terrain blocked the movement of the cold pool,resulting in the stagnation of the frontal convective cell at an early stage.Subsequently,a meso-γ-scale vortex formed during the rapid movement of the convective cell,corresponding to an enhancement of precipitation.The representative raindrop spectra for the southern rain belt were characterized by a greater number and higher density of raindrops than the northern rain belt,even though both resulted in comparable hourly rainfalls.These results help us better understand the characteristics of double rain belts over South China.

Analysis of the Digital Skill Gap of Agricultural Extension Personnel in South-East, Nigeria

The study analysed the digital skill gap of agricultural extension personnel on the use of digital technologies for extension services delivery in South-East, Nigeria. The specific objectives were to describe the socioeconomic characteristics of agricultural extension personnel in South-East Nigeria and identify the digital skill gaps among agricultural extension personnel in the area of study. Purposive sampling technique was used to select 364 Agricultural Extension personnel for the study. Data were collected through the use of structured questionnaire and were analysed using simple descriptive statistical tools such as percentages, mean score, and standard deviation. Findings indicated that most of the personnel were male (57.8%), within the age bracket of 38 - 47 years (62.9%), had B.Sc./HND as their highest educational qualification (74.7%), married (86.3%), and had a household size of 6 - 10 Persons (57.7%). It was further revealed that the majority (70.1%) were members of professional organization, earned a monthly income of N50,001.00 - N100,000.00 (65.7%), had a work experience of 11 - 15 years (51.1%), and owned a smartphone/ iPad/laptop (91.5%). Findings further indicated that they had moderate skill gap in Basic Computer skills (Mean = 4.32), and digital communication and collaboration skills (Mean = 4.26). Findings also showed that they had a high skill gap in digital technical skills (Mean = 2.46), digital data analysis skills (Mean = 2.09), digital content creation skills (Mean = 2.43), digital ethical skills (Mean = 2.79), multimedia production skills (Mean = 2.81), and video library management skills (Mean = 2.39). The study concluded that though there exists a high digital skill gap among agricultural extension personnel in South-East, Nigeria, their socioeconomic characteristics are capable of supporting the implementation of digital extension services in the area. The study recommended that the management of Agricultural Development Programs in South-East, Nigeria, should provide digital training for extension personnel to close the digital skill gap that currently exists among the personnel.

Seasonal characteristics and formation mechanism of the thermohaline structure of mesoscale eddy in the South China Sea

The seasonal characteristics and formation mechanism of the thermohaline structure of mesoscale eddy in the South China Sea are investigated using the latest eddy dataset and ARMOR3D data. Eddy-centric composites reveal that the horizontal distribution of temperature anomaly associated with eddy in winter is more of a dipole pattern in upper 50 m and tends to be centrosymmetric below 50 m, while in summer the distribution pattern is centrosymmetric in the entire water column. The horizontal distribution of eddy-induced salinity anomaly exhibits similar seasonal characteristics, except that the asymmetry of the salinity anomaly is weaker. The vertical distribution of temperature anomaly associated with eddy shows a monolayer structure, while the salinity anomaly demonstrates a triple-layer structure. Further analysis indicates that the vertical distribution of the anomalies is related to the vertical structure of background temperature and salinity fields, and the asymmetry of the anomalies in upper 50 m is mainly caused by the horizontal advection of background temperature and salinity.

Several significant hydrographic characteristics and their formation mechanism in the South China Sea during the spring and summer of 1998

dOn the basis of the CTD data obtained by the two cruises before and after summer monsoon burst (25th May, 1998), several significant hydrographic characteristics, their variation and formation mechanism in the South China Sea (SCS) are analyzed. The results show that the Kuroshio water intrudes into the SCS in the form of loop current, and its main part is limited to the east of 118degreesE near the Luzon Strait. Then it continuously extends westwards under the influence of the large-scale circulation, and has a distinct impact on the area north of 16degreesN. There are two high temperature and low salinity regions: west off Luzon and east off Vietnam respectively. One region west off Luzon strengthens obviously after summer monsoon burst, the other east off Vietnam shows a tendency of weakening in the north and strengthening in the south. The formation of these two high temperature and low salinity regions is related to the anti-cyclonic eddies existing in this area, besides, it is also related to the high temperature feature west of Luzon, the influx of Sulu Sea water and the influence of the large-scale air circulation. There is a cold region below the depth of 50 m in the south of Zhongsha Islands, and it strengthens after monsoon burst. The formation of cold water is related to the upwelling there.

Tectonic Evolution and Geological Characteristics of Hydrocarbon Reservoirs in Marine Mesozoic-Paleozoic Strata in the South Yellow Sea Basin

The South Yellow Sea Basin is the main body of the lower Yangtze area in which marine Mesozoic–Paleozoic strata are widely distributed.The latest geophysical data were used to overcome the limitation of previous poor-quality deep data.Meanwhile,the geological characteristics of hydrocarbon reservoirs in the marine Mesozoic–Paleozoic strata in the South Yellow Sea Basin were analyzed by comparing the source rocks and the reservoir and utilizing drilling and outcrop data.It is believed that the South Yellow Sea Basin roughly underwent six evolutionary stages:plate spreading,plate convergence,stable platform development,foreland basin development,faulted basin development,and depression basin development.The South Yellow Sea Basin has characteristics of a composite platform-fault depression geological structure,with a half-graben geological structure and with a ‘sandwich structure' in the vertical direction.Four sets of hydrocarbon source rocks developed – the upper Permian Longtan–Dalong formation,the lower Permian Qixia formation,the lower Silurian Gaojiabian formation,and the lower Cambrian Hetang formation/Mufushan formation,giving the South Yellow Sea Basin relatively good hydrocarbon potential.The carbonate is the main reservoir rock type in the South Yellow Sea area,and there are four carbonate reservoir types:porous dolomitic,reef-bank,weathered crust,and fractured.There are reservoir-forming horizons similar to the typical hydrocarbon reservoirs in the Yangtze land area developed in the South Yellow Sea,and there are three sets of complete source-reservoir-cap rock assemblages developed in the marine strata,with very good hydrocarbon potential.

The seismic reflecting characteristics of gas hydrate bearing strata and its possible distribution in the South China Sea

The research on gas hydrate is one of the topics of general interest in the field of energy resource and environment. The South China Sea has favorable conditions for the occurrence and formation of gas hydrate. The presence of gas hydrate changes acoustic properties of the sedimentary strata and results in the occurrence of bottom simulating reflectors, which makes the multi-channel seismic investigation an important method to identify gas hydrates. First, the paper, based on results of seismic reflection imaging, analyzes the qualitative seismic reflection characteristics of sedimentary strata containing gas hydrate. Some key seismic imaging techniques are also discussed. Next, a pseudo-well is constructed to perform an impedance inversion to get the quantitative velocity structure of the strata since there is no well in the study area. Finally, the velocity field from geophysical inversion is integrated with the geochemical and geophysical data acquired on the Ocean Drilling Program 184 cruise. All information confirms the presence of gas hydrate and shows its spatial distribution.

Analysis on the Climatic Characteristics of Hail in the South Mountain Area of Ningxia

[Objective] The research aimed to study the climatic characteristics of hail in the southern mountain area of Ningxia in recent 50 years. [Method] Based on the hail observation data of 5 surface meteorological stations (Guyuan, Xiji, Jingyuan, Longde, Liupanshan) in the south of Ningxia during 1960-2009, the spatial distribution rule, the interannual and monthly climatic characteristics and variation trends of hail in the south mountain area of Ningxia were analyzed by using the statistical method. Moreover, the hail disaster prevention and reduction measures in Guyuan were put forward. [Result] The hail in the south mountain area of Ningxia in recent 50 years had the obvious annual, seasonal, monthly and daily variation characteristics. The hail might occur from March to October and mainly concentrated during May-August which occupied 72% in the whole year. The occurrence probability of hail in June was the biggest and occupied 21.7% in the whole year. It was the typical multi-hail zone in summer. The interannual variation of hail occurrence in Guyuan was big and had 3-year periodicity. The secondary-order time trend of hail in Guyuan was the anti-parabolic type, and the hail occurrence times during the 1960s-1980s presented the increase trend. It was the hail multi-occurrence period in the 1970s and 1980s. After the 1990s, the hail presented the decrease trend. In recent 20 years, the hail significantly decreased. The hail in Guyuan mainly concentrated during 12:00-21:00, and the hail occurrence times occupied 85% of total times. The hail distribution in Guyuan area had the obvious regional characteristics. The hail in the mountain area, hilly area was more and in the stream valley, north Pingchuan area was less. The hail cloud mainly derived from the mountain areas, such as Liupanshan, Nanhua Mountain, Yueliang Mountain, Xifeng Mountain and Yunwu Mountain, etc. The move direction of hail cloud was mainly from northwest to southeast or from north to south. Part of hail cloud disappeared in the original place. According to the regional distribution of hail, the hail risk in Guyuan City was divided into the high, moderate and low occurrence zones by combining with the hail disaster data. [Conclusion] The research provided the scientific basis for the forecast, early-warning of hail weather and the artificial hail suppression.

SPATIO-TEMPORAL VARIATION CHARACTERISTICS OF EXTREMELY HEAVY PRECIPITATION FREQUENCY OVER SOUTH CHINA IN THE LAST 50 YEARS

This paper comprehensively studies the spatio-temporal characteristics of the frequency of extremely heavy precipitation events over South China by using the daily precipitation data of 110 stations during 1961 to 2008 and the extremely heavy precipitation thresholds determined for different stations by REOF, trend coefficients, linear trend, Mann-Kendall test and variance analysis. The results are shown as follows. The frequency distribution of extremely heavy precipitation is high in the middle of South China and low in the Guangdong coast and western Guangxi. There are three spatial distribution types of extremely heavy precipitation in South China. The consistent anomaly distribution is the main type. Distribution reversed between the east and the west and between the south and the north is also an important type. Extremely heavy precipitation events in South China mainly occurred in the summer-half of the year. Their frequency during this time accounts for 83.7% of the total frequency. In the 1960 s and 1980 s, extremely heavy precipitation events were less frequent while having an increasing trend from the late 1980 s. Their climatological tendency rates decrease in the central and rise in the other areas of South China, and on average the mean series also shows an upward but insignificant trend at all of the stations. South China's frequency of extremely heavy precipitation events can be divided into six major areas and each of them shows a different inter-annual trend and three of the representative stations experience abrupt changes by showing remarkable increases in terms of Mann-Kendall tests.

On Characteristics and Cultures of the Hakka's Enclosed Houses in South Jiangxi Province

General situation and distribution of round houses of the Hakka in south Jiangxi were introduced, such architectural styles as enclosed house with a square yard (kouzi wei, in the shape of 口), enclosed house with a yard of three transverse and one longitudinal constructions (guozi wei, in the shape of 国), and enclosed house with a round house in its yard (tao wei) were taken to analyze features of the Hakka's enclosed houses. It was highlighted that the Hakka's enclosed houses in south Jiangxi has diversified architectural styles and outstanding defensive and living functions. Construction art and religious culture shown by the enclosed houses were interpreted, and the branch of Han people with unique dialects, cultures, folk customs and emotional attitudes was proposed as a miniature of the culture in south Jiangxi. Moreover, it was stressed that more attention of the public and more efforts for the protection should be given to the Hakka's cultures in south Jiangxi, carriers of the locals' history over the past thousands of years.

REE Characteristics of a New Uranium Mineral from the Xianshi Uranium Deposit, South China

Objective Galuskin et al. （2011） firstly discovered that vorlanite （CaU^6＋/4＋）04 is a rare Ca-rich mineral with a fluorite-type structure, which is isostructural with uraninite （U^4＋O2）. Previous studies of the Xianshi granite-related uranium deposit reported that uraninite and pyrite are the major ore minerals whereas galena, clausthalite （PbSe）, and pyrite are minor phases in the ores. A more detailed petrographic and geochronological study of the uranium minerals from the Xianshi deposit showed that there are three distinct types of uraninite-bearing assemblages which formed at three mineralization episodes （Fig. la; Luo et al., 2015）.

THE CLIMATIC CHARACTERISTICS OF SUMMER MONSOON ONSET OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA I.40-YEAR AVERAGE

By using 40-year NCEP reanalysis daily data (1958-1997), we have analyzed the climatic characteristics of summer monsoon onset in the South China Sea (105E ~ 120E, 5N ~ 20N, to be simplified as SCS in the text followed) pentad by pentad (5 days). According to our new definition, in the monsoon area of the SCS two of the following conditions should be satisfied: 1) At 850hPa, the southwest winds should be greater than 2m/s. 2) At 850 hPa, seq should be greater than 335K. The new definition means that the summer monsoon is the southwest winds with high temperature and high moisture. The onset of the SCS summer monsoon is defined to start when one half of the SCS area (105E ~ 120E,5N ~ 20N) is controlled by the summer monsoon. The analyzed results revealed the following: 1) The summer monsoon in the SCS starts to build up abruptly in the 4th pentad in May. 2) The summer monsoon onset in the SCS is resulted from the development and intensification of southwesterly monsoon in the Bay of Bengal. 3) The onset of the summer monsoon and establishment of the summer monsoon rainfall season in the SCS occur simultaneously. 4) During the summer monsoon onset in the SCS, troughs deepen and widen quickly in the lower troposphere of the India; the subtropical high in the Western Pacific moves eastward off the SCS in the middle troposphere; the easterly advances northward over the SCS in the upper troposphere.

Temporal-spatial Variation Characteristics of the Extreme Precipitation Days over South China from 1961 to 2010

[ Objective] The research aimed to analyze temporal-spatial variation characteristics of the extreme precipitation days over South China from 1961 to 2010. [ Method] Based on the daily precipitation data in meteorological stations over South China, extreme precipitation thresholds were determined according to the percentiles distribution for different stations. Temporal-spatial variation characteristics of the extreme precipitation days over South China were studied by the methods of fuzzy clustering, trend coefficient, wavelet analysis and cross spectrum analysis, etc. [ Re- suit] Four sub-regions were identified over South China. They were respectively Nanling area, west Guangxi area, Coast area and Hainan area. Occurrence seasons of the extreme precipitations in each sub-region were significantly different. Extreme precipitation clays in four sub-regions all had increase trends, and those of Nanling area and Coast area were significant. From wavelet analysis and cress spectrum analysis, there were significant periodic variation characteristics. Extreme precipitation days in each sub-region all had significant same-phase evolution trends at the peri- od of 2 -5 years, but backward time length was different. [ Conclusion] The research provided background materials for forecast and influence as- sessment of the extremely heavy precipitation over South China.

Geological characteristics and accumulation mechanisms of the "continuous" tight gas reservoirs of the Xu2 Member in the middle-south transition region,Sichuan Basin,China

＂Continuous＂ tight gas reservoirs are those reservoirs which develop in widespread tight sandstones with a continuous distribution of natural gas. In this paper, we summarize the geological features of the source rocks and ＂＇continuous＂ tight gas reservoirs in the Xujiahe Formation of the middle- south transition region, Sichuan Basin. The source rocks of the Xul Member and reservoir rocks of the Xu2 Member are thick （Xul Member： 40 m, Xu2 Member： 120 m） and are distributed continuously in this study area. The results of drilled wells show that the widespread sandstone reservoirs of the Xu2 Member are charged with natural gas. Therefore, the natural gas reservoirs of the Xu2 Member in the middle-south transition region are ＂continuous＂ tight gas reservoirs. The accumulation of ＂continuous＂ tight gas reservoirs is controlled by an adequate driving force of the pressure differences between source rocks and reservoirs, which is demonstrated by a ＂one-dimensional＂ physical simulation experiment. In this simulation, the natural gas of＂continuous＂ tight gas reservoirs moves tbrward with no preferential petroleum migration pathways （PPMP）, and the natural gas saturation of＂continuous＂ tight gas reservoirs is higher than that of conventional reservoirs.

The distribution characteristics of clay minerals in the northern South China Sea

The clay minearals are composed of illite, chlorite, kaolinite, montmorillonite and mixed-layer minerals in the submarine sediments of the northern South China Sea. Three types of clay mineral zone can be recognized on the basis of the distributive regularity of clay minerals, submarine relief, hydrodynamic conditions and depositional characteristics in this region. Apart from the northern mainland source, kaolinites carried from the Philippines volcanic arc in the east and Malaysia in the south are also assumed to be one of the sources of the clay minerals in the deep sea. The increase of chlorites to the abyssal direction in the west of 116° E might be associated with the residual chlorites carried from the ancient Zhujiang River during the glacial period and the conversion of kaolinite into chlorite submarine volcanoes appear to be one of the sources of the increment of montmorillonite and chlorite around the Huangyan Island. From the distribution pattern of clay minerals in the whole area, it is known that the types of clay mineral assemblage in the study area are mainly controlled by climate and rock types of the source are-

Climatological characteristics of monsoons and tropical cyclone activities over China seas and their influences on hydrological and seasonal structures over the South China Sea

The aim of this paper is to study whether the features of perennial summer over the South China Sea remain constant all the year round or not , and whether there are any seasonal differences throughout the year or not. According to the characteristics of remarkable monsoon and frequent typhoon, the influences of monsoon and tropical cyclone on the hydrological features and the seasonal structure over the South China Sea are analysed by using examples. It may be considered that in the perennial summer area over the South China Sea, it is summer all the year round, but it does not remain constant throughout the year. On the basis of index dates of developing stages for winter and summer monsoons as well as the seasonal characteristics of typhoon frequency,the perennial summer season over the South China Sea may be divided into four periods, namely, early summer, midsummer, sweltering summer and late summer. The concrete classification and the hydrological seasonal feature of each period are discussed.

Hydrographic characteristics and its variation of the South China Sea before and after monsoon burst in 1998

The differences of temperature, salinity distribution characteristics and structure of circulation in the upper layer of the South China Sea (SCS) are analyzed, based on the CTD and ADCP data from the two intensive surveyed cruises (IOP1: April 10 - May 5; IOP2: June 12 - July 6) and carried out before and after the Asian monsoon burst (May 25) during the South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX) in 1998. The results showed that field of temperature in the upper layer of the SCS distinctly changed before and after the monsoon burst, the average surface temperature increased by 0.75℃ , with its influence down to the depth of 500 m. The interaction of the local circulation in some areas resulted in the complexity and variability of the temperature and salinity structure in the upper layer, and the alternating distribution of cold and warm water regions (blocks). The high salinity subsurface water obviously intruded into the SCS from the Northwest Pacific, but only limited to the area of southwest of Taiwan Island, and the low salinity intermediate water flowed from the SCS to the Northwest Pacific. The circulation field of the SCS in the summer mainly consisted of cyclonic and anticyclonic eddies (rings). With the burst of the monsoon, the intensity and amount of the anticyclonic or the cyclonic eddies (rings) would vary, showing the complex distribution patterns and variations. The result analyzed by the isopycnic surface method coincided extremely with those by in situ survey (ADCP), which showed that the formation of circulation in the SCS was mainly controlled by the internal mass field, that is, dominated by the geostrophic component.

A study on the geochemical characteristics of Upper Permian continental marginal arc volcanic rocks in the northern segment of South Lancangjiang Belt

Geochemical characteristics of the Upper Permian (P-2) continental marginal arc volcanic rocks are described, which have been found recently around the areas of Xiaodingxi and Zangli on the eastern side of the Yunxian|Lincang granite, in terms of rock assemblage, petrochemistry, REE, trace elements, Pb isotopes, geotectonic environment and so on. The volcanic rock assemblage is dominated by basalt-andesite-dacite, with minor trachyte andecite-trachyte; the volcanic rock series is predominated by the calc-alkaline series, with minor tholleiite series and alkaline series rocks; the volcanic rocks are characterized by high Al-2O-3 and low TiO-2, with K-2O contents showing extremely strong polarity; the REE distribution patterns are characterized by LREE enrichment and right-inclined type; trace elements and large cation elements are highly enriched, Ti and Cr are depleted, and P and Nb are partially depleted; the Pb composition is of the Gondwana type; the petrochemical points mostly fall within the field of island-arc volcanic rocks, in consistency with the projection of data points of continental marginal volcanic rocks in the southern segment of the South Lancangjiang Belt and the North Lancangjiang Belt. This continental marginal arc volcanic rock belt, together with the ocean-ridge and ocean-island volcanic rocks and ophiolites in the Changning-Menglian Belt, constitute the ocean-ridge volcanic rock, ophiolite-arc rock-magmatic rock belts which are distributed in pairs, indicating that the Lancangjiang oceanic crust subducted eastwards. This result is of great importance in constraining the evolution of the paleo-Tethys in the Lancangjiang Belt.

THE CHARACTERISTICS OF GENERAL CIRCULATION, POLAR ICE AND SNOW DAYS / COVER OF EXTREMELY SEVERE COLD MONTHS IN SOUTH CHINA WINTER

The work has made a statistic study of the variations of extremely severe cold winter months in the south of China and general circulation and external forcing factors in preceding periods. The result shows that from the current month to the preceding March the subtropical high in the west Pacific is persistently weak or located more to the east and south. When the summer monsoon is weak in East Asia in the year before, the winter monsoon will be strong in the current year in which the extremely severe cold month occurs. The Asian polar vortex expands in the preceding July, August and September and the current winter. The Tibetan Plateau has fewer days of snow cover in the November and December before the cold month occurs. There is less snow in the Tibetan Plateau in the preceding winter / spring of each extremely severe cold month. There are more polar ice in the polar Region Ⅳ for the 11 months before the current February, especially the previous March through August, and in Region Ⅱin January ~ November before the current cold month of December but less ice in Region Ⅲ in March ~ August.

THE CHARACTERISTICS OF 500 hPa GEOPOTENTIAL AND SST FIELD OF EXTREMELY SEVERE COLD MONTHS IN SOUTH CHINA WINTER

The region of south China is sometimes subject to major climatic catastrophes in winter. To have a clear understanding, the time in which extremely severe cold months occur in the south China wintertime over the past 45 years are determined and characteristics of the 500-hPa geopotential fields and SST fields are studied for the simultaneous and preceding 6-month periods. Similarity exists in the 500-hPa geopotential fields between each current severely cold month, with the geopotential pattern of being high in the north, but low in the south, of Asian-Pacific region and meridional circulation developing. The work presents anomalies of the months with significant differences in the 500-hPa geopotential field of the previous periods. The SSTA is continuous in the distribution from each extremely severe cold winter month back to the 6 months leading up to it for the region of south China while the SST pattern is of El Ni?o in January and the preceding 1 ~ 6 months for equatorial eastern Pacific but of La Ni?a in February and December. It is concluded that the prediction of severely cold winter months are possible with the use of the geopotential field at 500 hPa and the SST fields for the months ahead of the target time.