On the Application of Mixed Models of Probability and Convex Set for Time-Variant Reliability Analysis

In time-variant reliability problems,there are a lot of uncertain variables from different sources.Therefore,it is important to consider these uncertainties in engineering.In addition,time-variant reliability problems typically involve a complexmultilevel nested optimization problem,which can result in an enormous amount of computation.To this end,this paper studies the time-variant reliability evaluation of structures with stochastic and bounded uncertainties using a mixed probability and convex set model.In this method,the stochastic process of a limit-state function with mixed uncertain parameters is first discretized and then converted into a timeindependent reliability problem.Further,to solve the double nested optimization problem in hybrid reliability calculation,an efficient iterative scheme is designed in standard uncertainty space to determine the most probable point(MPP).The limit state function is linearized at these points,and an innovative random variable is defined to solve the equivalent static reliability analysis model.The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by two benchmark numerical examples and a practical engineering problem.

Time-Variant Reliability-Based Multi-Objective Fuzzy Design Optimization for Anti-Roll Torsion Bar of EMU

Although various types of anti-roll torsion bars have been developed to inhibit excessive roll angle of the electric multiple unit(EMU)car body,it is critical to ensure the reliability of structural design due to the complexity of the problems involving time and uncertainties.To address this issue,amulti-objective fuzzy design optimization model is constructed considering time-variant stiffness and strength reliability constraints for the anti-roll torsion bar.A hybrid optimization strategy combining the design of experiment(DoE)sampling and non-linear programming by quadratic lagrangian(NLPQL)is presented to deal with the design optimization model.To characterize the effect of time on the structural performance of the torsion bar,the continuous-time model combined with Ito lemma is proposed to establish the time-variant stiffness and strength reliability constraints.Fuzzy mathematics is employed to conduct uncertainty quantification for the design parameters of the torsion bar.A physical programming approach is used to improve the designer’s preference and to make the optimization results more consistent with engineering practices.Moreover,the effectiveness of the proposed method has been validated by comparing with current methods in a practical engineering case.

Time-variant reliability analysis of three-dimensional slopes based on Support Vector Machine method

In the reliability analysis of slope, the performance functions derived from the most available stability analysis procedures of slopes are usually implicit and cannot be solved by first-order second-moment approach. A new reliability analysis approach was presented based on three-dimensional Morgenstem-Price method to investigate three-dimensional effect of landslide in stability analyses. To obtain the reliability index, Support Vector Machine （SVM） was applied to approximate the performance function. The time-consuming of this approach is only 0.028% of that using Monte-Carlo method at the same computation accuracy. Also, the influence of time effect of shearing strength parameters of slope soils on the long-term reliability of three-dimensional slopes was investigated by this new approach. It is found that the reliability index of the slope would decrease by 52.54% and the failure probability would increase from 0.000 705% to 1.966%. In the end, the impact of variation coefficients of c andfon reliability index of slopes was taken into discussion and the changing trend was observed.

Time-Variant Reliability Analysis of FPSO Hull Girder Considering Corrosion Based on Statistics

FPSO is a kind of important exploitation platform used in ocean oil and gas industry, which has the unique character of mooring at outsea for a long time. Since it can not be inspected and maintained thoronghly at dock like other kinds of ships, the reliability of FPSO hull girder during the whole service should be focused. Based on latest corrosion database and rational corrosion model, the ultimate strength of one FPSO is calculated under the conditions of slight, moderate and severe corrosion. The results not only provide the reliabihty under different corrosion conditions, but also do well for further inspection and maintenance research. The results provide necessary foundation for deciding inspection intervals and maintenance measure, which has practical sense to improve the general safety level of ocean engineering.

RELIABILITY ANALYSIS FOR A REPAIRABLE PARALLEL SYSTEM WITH TIME-VARYING FAILURE RATES

To solve a real problem:how to calculate the reliability of a system with time-varying failure rates in industry systems,this paper studies a model for the load-sharing parallel system with time-varying failure rates,and obtains calculating formulas of reliability and availability of the system by solving differential equations.In this paper,the failure rates are expressed in polynomial configuration.The constant,linear and Weibull failure rate are in their special form.The polynomial failure rates provide flexibility in modeling the practical time-varying failure rates.

Time-varying Reliability Analysis of Long-span Continuous Rigid Frame bridge under Cantilever Construction Stage based on the Monitored Strain Data

In general,the material properties,loads,resistance of the prestressed concrete continuous rigid frame bridge in different construction stages are time-varying.So,it is essential to monitor the internal force state when the bridge is in construction.Among them,how to assess the safety is one of the challenges.As the continuous monitoring over a long-term period can increase the reliability of the assessment,so,based on a large number of monitored strain data collected from the structural health monitoring system(SHMS)during construction,a calculation method of the punctiform time-varying reliability is proposed in this paper to evaluate the stress state of this type bridge in cantilever construction stage by using the basic reliability theory.At the same time,the optimal stress distribution function in the bridge mid-span base plate is determined when the bridge is closed.This method can provide basis and direction for the internal force control of this type bridge in construction process.So,it can reduce the bridge safety and quality accidents in construction stages.

Disturbance observer based time-varying sliding mode control for uncertain mechanical system

It is now well known that the time-varying sliding mode control （TVSMC） is characterized by its global robustness against matched model uncertainties and disturbances. The accurate tracking problem of the mechanical system in the presence of the parametric uncertainty and external disturbance is addressed in the TVSMC framework. Firstly, an exponential TVSMC algorithm is designed and the main features are analyzed. Especially, the control parameter is obtained by solving an optimal problem. Subsequently, the global chattering problem in TVSMC is considered. To reduce the static error resulting from the continuous TVSMC algorithm, a disturbance observer based time-varying sliding mode control （DOTVSMC） algorithm is presented. The detailed design principle and the stability of the closed-loop system under the composite controller are provided. Simulation results verify the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

Maintenance Management Research of a Large-span Continuous Rigid Frame Bridge Based on Reliability Assessment by Using Strain Monitored Data

When the bridge components needing maintenance are the world problem at present,and the health monitoring system is considered to be a very help­ful tool for solving this problem.In this paper,a large number of strain data acquired from the structural health monitoring system(SHMS)installed on a continuous rigid frame bridge are adopted to do reliability assessment.Firstly,a calculation method of punctiform time-dependent reliability is proposed based on the basic reliability theory,and introduced how to cal­culate reliability of the bridge by using the stress data transformed from the strain data.Secondly,combined with“Three Sigma”principle and the basic pressure safety reserve requirement,the critical load effects distribu­tion function of the bridge is defined,and then the maintenance reliability threshold for controlling the unfavorable load state which appears in the early operation stage of this type bridge is suggested,and then the combi­nation of bridge maintenance management and health monitoring system is realized.Finally,the transformed stress distribution certifies that the load effects of concrete bridges practically have a normal distribution;as for the concrete continuous rigid frame bridge with C50 strength grade concrete,the retrofit reliability threshold should be valued at 6.13.The methodology suggested in this article can help bridge engineers do effective maintenance of bridges,which can effectively extend the service life of the bridge and bring better economic and social benefits.

外圆高速磨削颤振可靠性研究

磨削颤振严重影响了加工精度和表面质量,以外圆高速磨削为研究对象,基于再生颤振机理,建立了工件-砂轮动力学模型,求解了理论临界磨削深度,并绘制了稳定性叶瓣图;考虑动力学参数的不确定性,建立了磨削加工系统可靠性模型,采用改进一次二阶矩法求解磨削深度的可靠性;通过模态试验获得系统频响函数,并计算了磨削颤振可靠度;最后,选取15种工况开展颤振可靠性磨削试验,并通过工件表面振纹对颤振进行辨识。结果表明稳定性叶瓣图预测结果可能存在误差,利用磨削颤振可靠度对其评判,可提高预测结果的准确性。

基于四阶矩法车削颤振可靠性研究

再生颤振是影响加工质量、加速刀具磨损、刀具破坏的主要原因。以车削加工为研究对象,针对具有不确定参数的车削加工颤振预测问题,研究车削加工系统结构动态特性参数具有随机特性的情况下颤振可靠性建模及求解问题。定义车削加工过程不出现颤振的概率为颤振可靠度,建立车削加工系统可靠性模型,研究四阶矩法求解可靠度的问题,提出利用颤振可靠性叶瓣图方法进行颤振预测。通过模态试验对一车床进行频响函数测试,采用四阶矩法计算获得了颤振可靠度,并与蒙特卡洛法获得的可靠度相比较。结果表明四阶矩法计算获得的可靠度与蒙特卡洛仿真结果一致性很好,但是四阶矩法计算精度高而且计算耗时远小于蒙特卡洛法。进行颤振可靠性切削试验,通过观察振纹和分析噪声功率谱识别颤振,对典型参数进行验证,试验结果与分析结果一致。

车削加工颤振稳定性可靠度蒙特卡罗法仿真

在工程实际中,车削系统刚度、阻尼及切削力等参数的随机性严重影响车削加工的稳定性。针对此问题,提出了一种车削加工再生型颤振稳定性可靠度计算方法。考虑随机因素的影响,采用蒙特卡罗数值模拟方法,研究车削加工再生型颤振稳定性的统计分布规律。建立车削加工再生型颤振动力学模型,采用拉氏变换获取机床车削的极限切削宽度及所对应的主轴转速。根据数控车床切削系统动力学参数的分布信息抽取样本,代入再生型颤振模型进行计算,获取极限切削宽度的样本,并统计其概率特性,以实际切宽是否小于极限切宽为判别条件提出一种基于蒙特卡罗模拟的车削加工再生型颤振稳定性可靠度预测方法。

铣削加工颤振稳定性可靠度的计算方法

铣削过程中的系统参数往往具有随机性,严重影响了铣削加工的稳定性.利用BP神经网络综合分析了随机因素对铣削加工过程的影响,提出了一种铣削加工再生型颤振稳定性可靠度计算方法.建立铣削加工再生型颤振动力学模型,使用全离散法获取铣削稳定性叶瓣图.利用神经网络拟合极限轴向切深的函数表达式,再分别使用蒙特卡罗法和一次二阶矩法进行可靠度计算.结果表明,基于BP神经网络的方法兼具高效和精确的优点.

微铣削中考虑时变切削力系数的颤振稳定性预测

颤振问题严重制约了微铣床的加工效率和加工质量。加工过程中刀具的磨损使得系统的颤振稳定性预测精度逐渐降低。为解决上述问题,引入时变可靠性理论,并用Gamma过程描述刀刃半径随切削时间的变化关系。建立了系统的时变切削力、时变稳定性和时变可靠性模型,分析了给定条件下系统的颤振稳定性和颤振可靠度随加工时间的变化关系。给出了微铣削在高速铣削过程中在给定切深和主轴转速下系统的颤振时变稳定性和颤振时变可靠性的算例研究。研究表明:随着加工时间的增加系统的颤振稳定性逐渐降低,该方法能够更准确的预测出不同加工时间内系统的颤振稳定性。

铣削颤振及其可靠度分析

通过铣削颤振动力学建模,考虑了影响参数的随机性,在解析法分析铣削系统阻尼比、刚度、固有频率、铣削径向切削宽度以及铣削力系数对铣削颤振稳定性的影响的基础上,应用蒙特卡洛算法,分别对不同阻尼比和刚度的铣削系统进行了铣削颤振可靠性分析。结果表明,主轴转速和铣削颤振可靠度呈现明显的非线性关系。在稳定域按照极限切削深度进行铣削加工时,仅有在特定速度段能够保障不发生颤振现象,刚度的增加几乎不会影响铣削颤振可靠度,增加铣削系统阻尼可容易地得到铣削稳定域所对应的主轴速度。

基于随机SLD法的车削颤振可靠性研究

针对车削加工颤振预测问题,研究了车削加工系统结构动态特性参数具有随机特性的情况下颤振可靠性建模及求解问题。建立了单自由度车削加工系统动力学理论模型,提出了车削加工颤振系统的随机SLD可靠性模型,采用蒙特卡洛方法进行了可靠度求解。对一台CJ0625车床进行频响函数测试,给出了具有随机参数的车削加工系统频率响应函数和颤振稳定性叶瓣图(SLD)。对设定的16组转速、切宽加工参数进行颤振可靠度计算,其结果与确定性SLD方法分析结果进行比较。

基于概率方法的机器人铣削加工颤振稳定性研究

将可靠性概率方法引入到机器人铣削模态耦合颤振预测中,首先建立可靠性模型,得到极限状态方程.其次,应用四阶矩法计算其可靠度和灵敏度以分析各参数对于铣削加工稳定性的影响.最后,基于机器人铣削加工骨头的工程背景给出了一个算例研究.结果表明:机器人两自由度方向的刚度、切削力系数和加工进给方向会影响铣削加工的稳定性;在一定范围内,增加X方向刚度,降低Y方向的刚度,减小切削力系数以及合理选择加工进给方向有利于避免模态耦合颤振的发生;系统对于切削力系数的变化相较于X,Y方向刚度更加敏感,对稳定性的影响更显著.

电接触系统载体运动诱发的动态电阻响应

电接触系统工作的可靠性和稳定性强烈地依赖于触点力,它通常是由弹性元件所提供的。当其载体运动时,该压力会发生变化,生成不稳定的接触电阻,即抖动“动态电阻”或“噪纹”(Grass),它的动态范围达到某一定值时,电器将出现误动作,甚至使触头焊死,后果是十分严重的。本文建立了分析电接触系统载体运动所诱发的动态电阻的方法,讨论了它与系统机械振动参数间的关系和工程应用问题,导出了系统机械参数最优设计准则。

车削颤振时变可靠性预测

针对车削加工过程中刀具磨损使得切削力系数等加工参数不断变化,进而导致传统的颤振预测方法随着加工时间的增加预测精度大大降低的问题,将时变可靠性理论引入颤振预测中,用线性方程表示了合力切削力系数的均值随切削时间的变化关系,建立了时变稳定性和时变可靠性模型.获得给定加工条件下系统的时变极限切宽和时变颤振可靠度曲线.最后对提出的计算方法做了相应的实验证明.实验表明.提出的颤振时变可靠性预测方法能够更为准确地预测不同加工时间下的颤振.

车削颤振时变可靠性分析

考虑车削加工过程中刀具磨损对切削力系数的影响,用Gamma过程描述了切削力系数随时间的变化过程,并建立了车削颤振时变可靠性模型.提出了主动学习的Kriging模型与基于首次超越的子集模拟相结合的时变可靠性分析方法(AK-SSFP).对某一车床建立车削颤振稳定性模型,分别采用Monte Carlo方法(MCS)、基于主动学习Kriging的Monte Carlo方法(AK-MCS)和AK-SSFP方法计算车削颤振时变可靠度.AK-SSFP方法的结果与MCS方法的结果一致性很好,且AK-SSFP方法减少了真实极限函数的调用次数并缩短了运算时间.AK-SSFP在保证精度的同时提高了计算效率,解决了车削加工系统颤振时变可靠度的计算问题.

Reliability estimation of rotary lip seal in aircraft utility system based on time-varying dependence degradation model and its experimental validation

With several attractive properties, rotary lip seals are widely used in aircraft utility system, and their reliability estimation has drawn more and more attention. This work proposes a reliability estimation approach based on time-varying dependence analysis. The dependence between the two performance indicators of rotary lip seals, namely leakage rate and friction torque, is modeled by time-varying copula function with polynomial to denote the time-varying parameters, and an efficient copula selection approach is utilized to select the optimal copula function. Parameter estimation is carried out based on a Bayesian method and the reliability during the whole lifetime is calculated based on a Monte Carlo method. Degradation test for rotary lip seal is conducted and the proposed model is validated by test data. The optimal copula function and optimal order of polynomial are determined based on test data. Results show that this model is effective in estimating the reliability of rotary lip seals and can achieve a better goodness of fit.