Trends of Lower- to Mid-Stratospheric Water Vapor Simulated in Chemistry-Climate Models

Using the outputs from 16 chemistry-climate models(CCMs), the trends of lower- to mid-stratospheric water vapor(WV) during the period 1980–2005 were studied. Comparisons were made between the CCM results and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF) Interim Reanalysis(ERA-Interim).The results of most of the CCMs, and those based on ERA-Interim, showed the trends of lower- to mid-stratospheric WV during the period 1980–2005 to be positive, with the extent of the trend increasing with altitude. The trend of lower- to mid-stratospheric WV in the ensemble mean of the CCMs was 0.03 ppmv per decade,which was about twice as large as that based on ERA-Interim. The authors also used a state-of-the-art general circulation model to evaluate the impacts of greenhouse gas(GHG) concentration increases and ozone depletion on stratospheric WV. The simulation results showed that the increases of lower- to mid-stratospheric WV affected by the combined effects of GHG and ozone changes happened mainly via warming of the tropopause and enhancement of the Brewer-Dobson circulation(BDC), with the former being the greater contributor.GHG increase led to a higher and warmer tropopause with stronger BDC, which in turn led to more WV entering the stratosphere; while ozone depletion led to a higher and cooler tropopause, which caused the decreases of lowerto mid-stratospheric WV, despite also causing stronger BDC.

Lower Stratospheric Water Vapor Variations Diagnosed from Satellite Observations,Reanalysis Data,and a Chemistry-Climate Model

Stratospheric water vapor variations,which may play an important role in surface climate,have drawn extensive studies.Here,the variation in stratospheric water vapor is investigated by using data from observations of the Microwave Limb Sounder(MLS)on the Aura satellite,from the ECMWF Interim Reanalysis(ERAI),and simulations by the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model(WACCM).We find that the differences of annual mean stratospheric water vapor among these datasets may be partly caused by the differences in vertical transports.Using budget analysis,we find that the upward transport of water vapor at 100 h Pa is mainly located over the Pacific warm pool region and South America in the equatorial tropics in boreal winter and over the southeast of the South Asian high and south of North America in boreal summer.It is found that temperature averaged over regions with upward transport is a better indicator of interannual variability of tropical mean stratospheric water vapor than the tropical mean temperature.It seems that the distributions of the seasonal cycle amplitude of lower stratospheric water vapor in the tropics can also be impacted by the vertical transport.The radiative effects of the interannual changes in water vapor in the lowermost stratosphere are underestimated by approximately 29%in both ERAI and WACCM compared to MLS,although the interannual variations of water vapor in the lowermost stratosphere are dramatically overestimated in ERAI and WACCM.The results here indicate that the radiative effect of long-term changes in water vapor in the lowermost stratosphere may be underestimated in both ERAI and WACCM simulations.

Role of Stratospheric Processes in Climate Change: Advances and Challenges

In this review,instead of summarizing all the advances and progress achieved in stratospheric research,the main advances and new developments in stratosphere-troposphere coupling and stratospheric chemistry-climate interactions are summarized,and some outstanding issues and grand challenges are discussed.A consensus has been reached that the stratospheric state is an important source of improving the predictability of the troposphere on sub-seasonal to seasonal(S2S)time scales and beyond.However,applying stratospheric signals in operational S2S forecast models remains a challenge because of model deficiencies and the complexities of the underlying mechanisms of stratosphere-troposphere coupling.Stratospheric chemistry,which controls the magnitude and distribution of many important climate-forcing agents,plays a critical role in global climate change.Convincing evidence has been found that stratospheric ozone depletion and recovery have caused significant tropospheric climate changes,and more recent studies have revealed that stratospheric ozone variations can even exert an impact on SSTs and sea ice.The climatic impacts of stratospheric aerosols and water vapor are also important.Although their quantitative contributions to radiative forcing have been reasonably well quantified,there still exist large uncertainties in their long-term impacts on climate.The advances and new levels of understanding presented in this review suggest that whole-atmosphere interactions need to be considered in future for a better and more thorough understanding of stratosphere-troposphere coupling and its role in climate change.

Interannual and Decadal Changes in Tropospheric Ozone in China and the Associated Chemistry–Climate Interactions: A Review

China has been experiencing widespread air pollution due to rapid industrialization and urbanization in recent decades.The two major concerns of ambient air quality in China are particulate matter(PM)and tropospheric ozone(O3).With the implementation of air pollution prevention and control actions in the last five years,the PM pollution in China has been substantially reduced.In contrast,under the conditions of the urban air pollution complex,the elevated O3 levels in city clusters of eastern China,especially in warm seasons,have drawn increasing attention.Emissions of air pollutants and their precursors not only contribute to regional air quality,but also alter climate.Climate change in turn can change chemical processes,long-range transport,and local meteorology that influence air pollution.Compared to PM,less is known about O3 pollution and its climate effects over China.Here,we present a review of the main findings from the literature over the period 2011-18 with regard to the characteristics of O3 concentrations in China and the mechanisms that drive its interannual to decadal variations,aiming to identify robust conclusions that may guide decision-making for emissions control and to highlight critical knowledge gaps.We also review regional and global modeling studies that have investigated the impacts of tropospheric O3 on climate,as well as the projections of future tropospheric O3 owing to climate and/or emission changes.

Impact of Increasing Stratospheric Water Vapor on Ozone Depletion and Temperature Change

Using a detailed, fully coupled chemistry climate model （CCM）, the effect of increasing stratospheric H20 on ozone and temperature is investigated. Different CCM time-slice runs have been performed to investigate the chemical and radiative impacts of an assumed 2 ppmv increase in H20. The chemical effects of this H20 increase lead to an overall decrease of the total column ozone （TCO） by ～1% in the tropics and by a maximum of 12% at southern high latitudes. At northern high latitudes, the TCO is increased by only up to 5% due to stronger transport in the Arctic. A 2-ppmv H2O increase in the model＇s radiation scheme causes a cooling of the tropical stratosphere of no more than 2 K, but a cooling of more than 4 K at high latitudes. Consequently, the TCO is increased by about 2%-6%. Increasing stratospheric H2O, therefore, cools the stratosphere both directly and indirectly, except in the polar regions where the temperature responds differently due to feedbacks between ozone and H2O changes. The combined chemical and radiative effects of increasing H2O may give rise to more cooling in the tropics and middle latitudes but less cooling in the polar stratosphere. The combined effects of H2O increases on ozone tend to offset each other, except in the Arctic stratosphere where both the radiative and chemical impacts give rise to increased ozone. The chemical and radiative effects of increasing H2O cause dynamical responses in the stratosphere with an evident hemispheric asymmetry. In terms of ozone recovery, increasing the stratospheric H2O is likely to accelerate the recovery in the northern high latitudes and delay it in the southern high latitudes. The modeled ozone recovery is more significant between 2000 ～2050 than between 2050～2100, driven mainly by the larger relative change in chlorine in the earlier period.