An Interdecadal Change of Summer Atmospheric Circulation over Asian Mid-High Latitudes and Associated Effects

The atmospheric circulation over the mid-high latitudes in Asia has an important influence on regional climate,yet its long-term variation has not been fully explored.The main task of this study is to reveal the interdecadal variation features of summer atmospheric circulation over Asian mid-high latitudes in recent decades.The results show that the atmospheric circulation over mid-high latitudes of Asia has stronger interdecadal fluctuations than that over low latitudes and one significant change center appears near Lake Baikal.It is found that the atmospheric circulation near Lake Baikal has a significant interdecadal change around 1996 and a deep anomalous anticyclonic circulation has been controlling this region since then,which contributes to the significant increase in the surface temperature near Lake Baikal since 1997 and makes the region a remarkable warming center in Asia in recent 40 years.During 1997-2015,the pattern of less precipitation in the north and more precipitation in the south of east China is closely related to the anomalous anticyclonic circulation near Lake Baikal.Especially,this anomalous circulation near Lake Baikal has been found to contribute to the obvious interdecadal decrease of the precipitation in northeast China and north China near1997.The sea surface temperature(SST)of northwestern Atlantic is an important influence factor to the interdecadal change in the atmospheric circulation near Lake Baikal around 1996.

Circulation anomalies in the mid–high latitudes responsible for the extremely hot summer of 2018 over northeast Asia

This study investigated the contributions of mid–high-latitude circulation anomalies to the extremely hot summer(July and August;JA)of 2018 over Northeast Asia(NEA).The JA-mean surface air temperature in 2018 was 1.2°C higher than that of the 1979–2018 climatology,with the amplitude of such an anomaly almost doubling the interannual standard deviation,making 2018 the hottest year during the analysis period 1979–2018.The abnormal warming over NEA was caused by a local positive geopotential height anomaly reaching strongest intensity in JA 2018.Further investigation suggested that the upper-tropospheric circulation anomalies over northern Europe and the Caspian Sea were crucial to forming this NEA circulation anomaly through initiating downstream wave trains.Particularly,the geopotential heights over these two regions were concurrently at their highest in JA 2018,and therefore jointly contributed to the profound circulation anomaly over NEA and the hottest summer on record.Due to these two teleconnection patterns,the temperature anomalies in NEA are closely related to those in both northern Europe and the Caspian Sea,where the similarly extreme warming also happened in 2018.

Pathways of Influence of the Northern Hemisphere Mid–high Latitudes on East Asian Climate: A Review

This paper reviews recent progress made by Chinese scientists on the pathways of influence of the Northern Hemisphere mid-high latitudes on East Asian climate within the framework of a“coupled oceanic-atmospheric(land-atmospheric or seaice-atmospheric)bridge”and“chain coupled bridge”.Four major categories of pathways are concentrated upon,as follows:Pathway A—from North Atlantic to East Asia;Pathway B—from the North Pacific to East Asia;Pathway C—from the Arctic to East Asia;and Pathway D—the synergistic effects of the mid-high latitudes and tropics.In addition,definitions of the terms“combined effect”,“synergistic effect”and“antagonistic effect”of two or more factors of influence or processes and their criteria are introduced,so as to objectively investigate those effects in future research.

Projected changes in Köppen-Trewartha climate zones under 1.5-4℃global warming targets over mid-high latitudes of Northern Asia using an ensemble of RegCM4 simulations

Mid-high latitude Northern Asia is one of the most vulnerable and sensitive areas to global warming,but relatively less studied previously.We used an ensemble of a regional climate model(RegCM4)projections to assess future changes in surface air temperature,precipitation and Köppen-Trewartha(K-T)climate types in Northern Asia under the 1.5-4℃global warming targets.RegCM4 is driven by five CMIP5 global models over an East Asia domain at a grid spacing of 25 km.Validation of the present day(1986-2005)simulations shows that the ensembles of RegCM4(ensR)and driving GCMs(ensG)reproduce the major characters of the observed temperature,precipitation and K-T climate zones reasonably well.Greater and more realistic spatial detail is found in RegCM4 compared to the driving GCMs.A general warming and overall increases in precipitation are projected over the region,with these changes being more pronounced at higher warming levels.The projected warming by ensR shows different spatial patterns,and is in general lower,compared to ensG in most months of the year,while the percentage increases of precipitation are maximum during the cold months.The future changes in K-T climate zones are characterized by a substantial expansion of Dc(temperature oceanic)and retreat of Ec(sub-arctic continental)over the region,reaching∼20%under the 4℃warming level.The most notable change in climate types in ensR is found over Japan(∼60%),followed by Southern Siberia,Mongolia,and the Korean Peninsula(∼40%).The largest change in the K-T climate types is found when increasing from 2 to 3℃.The results will help to better assess the impacts of climate change and in implementation of appropriate adaptation measures over the region.

Assessment of model performance of precipitation extremes over the mid-high latitude areas of Northern Hemisphere:from CMIP5 to CMIP6

This study explores the model performance of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)in simulating precipitation extremes over the mid–high latitudes of Asia,as compared with predecessor models in the previous phase,CMIP5.Results show that the multimodel ensemble median generally outperforms the individual models in simulating the climate means of precipitation extremes.The CMIP6 models possess a relatively higher capability in this respect than the CMIP5 models.However,discrepancies also exist between models and observation,insofar as most of the simulated indices are positively biased to varying degrees.With respect to the temporal performance of indices,the majority are overestimated at most time points,along with large uncertainty.Therefore,the capacity to simulate the interannual variability needs to be further improved.Furthermore,pairwise and multimodel ensemble comparisons were performed for 12 models to evaluate the performance of individual models,revealing that most of the new-version models are better than their predecessors,albeit with some variance in the metrics amongst models and indices.

区域海气耦合模式WON在东南亚低纬高原一次强降水事件模拟中的应用

为改善东南亚低纬高原区(LLHSA)降水模拟的性能,提高降水预报准确性,本文采用大气环流模式WRF(4.2版)和海洋分量模式NEMO(3.4版),用耦合器OASIS3-MCT进行桥接,得到区域海气耦合模式WRF-OASIS-NEMO(WON)。大气和海洋分量模式都配置成相同的Arakawa-C网格,水平空间分辨率设为0.25°,耦合频次设置为逐小时,便于模拟海洋和大气环流相耦合的中尺度运动特征。为评估WON模式的模拟性能,选取2020年8月16-18日的强降水过程为例,与单独WRF模式的模拟效果进行比较分析。WON和WRF模式模拟的降水大值区位于高原东北部和中西部地区,平均日降水量约为20 mm·d^(-1),与观测事实基本相符。WON模式改善了WRF模式在高原南部降水偏多而在高原西北部降水偏少的模拟偏差。WON模式改善了降水动力条件的模拟效果,在高原中南部气旋式环流增强,在高原西侧反气旋式环流增强,进而改善了WRF模式在高原南部周围降水偏少,高原西北部降水偏多的模拟偏差。WRF和WON模式均能再现垂直螺旋度的发展特征,即在对流层中低层为正垂直螺旋度发展,而在对流层高层为负垂直螺旋度发展。两个模式在雨带西部400 hPa高度层附近垂直螺旋度模拟偏强,而在600~700 hPa高度层上垂直螺旋度模拟偏弱。WON模式相对于WRF模式的改进区域主要集中在雨带中西部地区。本次强降水的水汽来源包括孟湾的西南水汽输送和中国南海的偏南水汽输送。WRF模式和WON模式均能较好地重现相关水汽通量特征。WRF模式在孟湾北部水汽辐合偏强,而在中国南海水汽向北输送偏弱。WON模式主要改善了WRF模式在中国南海水汽输送偏弱的模拟偏差。WON模式改善降水模拟效果的主要原因是孟湾海表热通量交换导致孟湾中低层大气偏冷偏干,大气对流活动减弱,在孟湾北部形成的低层反气旋偏差改善了本次强降水过程动力条件和水汽条件的模拟效果。

2023年秋季我国气候异常特征及成因分析

利用NCEP/NCAR再分析数据集和中国2400个站的气候观测数据,对2023年秋季我国气候异常特征及其成因进行分析。2023年秋季全国平均气温为1961年以来历史同期最高;全国平均降水量接近常年同期,但空间分布不均且季节内变化明显。秋季欧亚中高纬环流呈“两槽一脊”型,造成我国气温显著偏高;9月呈“两脊一槽”型,巴尔喀什湖低槽活动导致西北地区降水增多;10月呈“两槽一脊”型,导致北方地区偏暖加强;11月呈“西高东低”型,东路冷空气增强,东北地区气温偏低、降水偏多。西太平洋副热带高压总体较常年偏强、偏西,脊线9月异常偏北、10月偏南、11月接近常年。印缅槽9月显著偏强,10—11月接近常年。9月印缅槽偏强与副热带高压异常偏北共同导致了长江中下游以北至黄河下游地区多雨;10—11月东部地区水汽条件整体偏差。9—10月近海台风频繁活动,造成华南地区降水偏多。2023年秋季我国气候受到大气季节内变化的显著作用,热带海温异常的影响不典型。

中国东北极端持续大—暴雪事件的个例成因及可预测性

2013年11月东北大—暴雪持续日数为1982—2020年同期最多的一年。其中,2013年11月17—20日和25日先后发生两次强降雪过程,其中第一次过程降雪持续时间较长,而第二次过程日降雪强度强。基于此,从2013年11月月际异常气候背景和两次强降雪过程的角度,开展其成因和可预测性研究。研究结果表明,2013年11月北极涛动(AO)正位相异常偏强、类北太平洋涛动(NPO)负位相、巴伦支海以北的海冰月增长量(11月减9月)异常偏多和热带-南印度洋海温异常偏暖的气候背景有利于这次东北持续性大—暴雪事件的发生。其中,2013年11月巴伦支海以北的海冰月增长量偏多,意味着季节性海冰生长量增加使得向大气中释放的潜热通量增加,气温偏高,有利于AO正位相加强并激发罗斯贝(Rossby)波列,使得阿留申低压减弱;同时11月热带-南印度洋海温异常偏暖,热带印度洋对流加强和热带西太平洋对流减弱,有利于西北太平洋-阿留申地区维持“气旋-反气旋”式环流异常,呈现类NPO负位相。这样的环流形势有利于从北太平洋向东北地区持续输送水汽。第一次强降雪过程(17—20日)发生前5 d(12—16日)到降雪过程结束(20日),北大西洋涛动(NAO)维持正位相并且强度达到冬半年最强,由此激发持续东传Rossby波,使得西北太平洋-阿留申地区为持续性的南北向“气旋-反气旋”式环流异常,有利于北太平洋水汽持续输送至东北地区。在2013年11月25日第二次强降雪过程中,乌拉尔山阻塞高压显著加强,东北低涡加深,有利于热带西太平洋更为暖湿的水汽输送至东北地区,与北太平洋输送的水汽共同导致第二次强降雪过程的日降雪强度大。最后,利用CFSv2评估2013年11月异常气候背景的可预测性,结果表明CFSv2可提前1个月预测2013年11月热带-南印度洋海温异常偏暖,但对热带印度洋和西太平洋对流异常、NAO以及热带-中高纬大气遥相关预测能力较弱。在次季节尺度上,ECMWF(CMA)能提前29(12)d和13(16)d合理预测出两次过程降雪量的空间分布,这可能是由于模式能合理再现NAO和乌拉尔山阻塞高压等关键环流系统的逐日变化。因此未来还有待提升热带-中高纬大气遥相关、水汽输送以及平流层极涡的次季节-季节预测效能。

北太平洋副极地海洋锋四季变异特征及其与中纬度大气的联系

基于高分辨率海洋与大气再分析资料,结合统计分析与动力学诊断,揭示了北太平洋副极地海洋锋区(Subarctic Oceanic Frontal Zone,SAFZ)强度四季变异的特征及成因,阐释了与SAFZ四季异常相伴随的中纬度大气环流异常特征及其对应的动力学过程。结果表明,SAFZ在秋、冬、春季较强,夏季相对较弱。海温经向平流过程是秋、冬、春季SAFZ强度维持的主导因素,而海-气界面净热通量交换过程对夏季SAFZ强度减弱起决定作用。在不同季节,伴随SAFZ强度变异,边界层湍流热通量发生变化,非绝热加热异常引起锋区上方低层气温经向梯度与大气斜压性的异常,进而导致大气瞬变涡旋活动异常。由瞬变涡旋涡度强迫异常主导,中纬度北太平洋及中国东部、东北部等地上空对应产生相当正压结构的大气位势高度场异常与风场异常,相应的大气环流异常场存在季节差异。

Impacts of the MJO on Winter Rainfall and Circulation in China

Impacts of the MJO on winter rainfall and circulation in China are investigated using a real-time multivariate MJO index.Composite results using the daily rainfall anomalies and "rainy day" anomalies according to eight different MJO phases show that the MJO has considerable influence on winter rainfall in China. Rainfall anomalies show systematic and substantial changes(enhanced/suppressed) in the Yangtze River Basin and South China with the eastward propagation of the MJO convective center from the Indian Ocean to the western Pacific.When the MJO is in phase 2 and 3(MJO convective center is located over the Indian Ocean),rainfall probability is significantly enhanced.While in phase 6 and 7(MJO convective center is over the western Pacific),rainfall probability is significantly reduced. MJO in winter influences the rainfall in China mainly through modulating the circulation in the subtropics and mid-high latitudes.For the subtropics,MJO influences the northward moisture transport coming from the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea by modulating the southern trough of the Bay of Bengal and the western Pacific subtropical high.For the mid-high latitudes,the propagation of the low frequency perturbations associated with the eastward-propagating MJO convection modulate the circulation in the mid-high latitudes,e.g.the East Asian winter monsoon and the low trough over central Asia.

EFFECT OF PLANETARY AND SYNOPTIC SCALE WAVES IN MAINTAINING MERIDIONAL CIRCULATIONS AT MID AND LOW LATITUDES

Following Wu and Chen(1989), in terms of the elliptical differential equation with mean meridional stream function, an equation similar in form to that developed by Kuo (1956) and by use of time average statistics of atmospheric circulation in wavenumber domains at the same intervals of time, a study is made of the con- tribution of the internal forcing of the atmosphere in two space scales to mean meridional circulation. Re- sults show that planetary waves have considerable influence on the intensity of the upper center of the bi- Hadley cell, and, in contrast, synoptic-scale waves exert vital effect on the Ferrel cell, and that in the Northern Hamisphere(NH)such internal forcings by planetary- and synoptic-scale waves are comparable on mean merid- ional circulations whereas the latter contribute far more than the former in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). Further, in the northern winter (summer)the contribution of heat (angular momentum) transport of planetary waves allows the descending (ascending) branch to occur as far as around 40°N, some kind of effect that makes quite important contribution to the winter (summer) monsoon circulation in eastern Asia.

云南冬季气温变化的主要模态及其影响的关键环流因子

为了揭示云南低纬高原地区冬季气温变化的主要特征及影响的关键环流因子,本文利用云南124站地面气象站月平均气温观测资料、NCEP/NCAR大气环流再分析资料,以及CPC和NCC提供的部分大气遥相关型和环流特征指数,首先分析了云南冬季气温变化的主要特征,表明冬季气温年际变率东部大于西部,主要空间分布有全区一致、东西差异、经向三级差异、西北-东南差异四种型态,前四个模态占EOF总方差贡献的90%,其中前三个模态线性变化趋势明显,第四模态主要表现出显著的年代际波动特征。分析发现相应不同气温模态,中高纬度异常波列呈现出明显不同的形势和走向,与500 hPa中高纬度异常波列相关的四个关键区的高度异常,以及孟加拉湾地区的高低层环流异常对气温主要模态有十分重要的影响:第一模态与东亚中低纬度南(20°N-30°N,90°E-120°E)北(45°N-60°N,90°E-120°E)两个区域经向差异密切联系,北低南高(北高南低)形势有利于全区一致偏暖(冷);第二模态与中高纬度纬向波列有关,当东亚-西北太平洋区域(25°N-45°N,120°E-160°E)高度偏高(低)、700 hPa孟加拉湾北部区域(15°N-25°N,80°E-100°E)气旋(反气旋)活动、300 hPa东南亚纬向风切变Uwnd-shear-300大于(小于)零时,有利于气温西冷东暖(西暖东冷);第三模态与中高纬度西北-东南向波列有关,高原区域(30°N-50°N,80°E-110°E)高度偏高(低)有利于气温中冷东西暖(中暖东西冷)经向三级模态;第四模态主要受孟加拉湾区域高低层局地环流变化的影响。气温模态与大气遥相关型和关键环流系统指数的相关进一步表明了中高纬度异常波列的重要作用,同时表明了高原高度场也是影响云南冬季气温变化的重要的因子之一。

2023年汛期气候趋势预测与展望

2023年3月,中国科学院大气物理研究所开展汛期(6~8月)全国气候趋势预测会商会。通过综合大气所各数值模式和统计模型的结果,在未来4~6个月热带中东太平洋从持续3年的La Niña事件转为异常偏暖状态的背景下,预计2023年汛期,东北的北部和东部、华北大部分地区、黄河中下游、黄淮流域、东南沿海、西北地区中部、新疆和西藏的西部、西南地区中部降水正常略偏多,其中东北的北部和东部以及黄淮流域降水偏多2~5成,可能发生局地洪涝灾害。全国其他大部分地区降水正常略偏少,其中长江中下游地区、河套北部至内蒙古中东部、新疆北部降水偏少2~5成,可能发生阶段性高温热浪。预计今年夏季登陆台风数量接近正常。由于未来ENSO的演变趋势、西太平洋暖池对流的异常变化以及中高纬度环流异常的季节内变化等诸多因素都具有不确定性,因此此次汛期降水预测结果也存在一定的不确定性。将根据2023年春末、夏初大气环流和海洋等因子的实际演变趋势,做进一步补充订正预测。

Relationship Between an Abrupt Drought-Flood Transition over Mid-Low Reaches of the Yangtze River in 2011 and the Intraseasonal Oscillation over Mid-High Latitudes of East Asia

NCEP/NCAR daily reanalysis data and Chinese daily gridded precipitation data are used to study the relationship between an aprupt drought-flood transition over the mid-low reaches of the Yangtze River in 2011 and the intraseasonal oscillation （ISO; 30-60 days） in the mid-high latitude meridional circulation of the upper troposphere over East Asia. The abrupt transition from drought to flood occurs in early June. The first two recovered fields of the complex empirical orthogonal function show that northward-propagating westerlies from low latitudes converge with southward-propagating westerlies from high latitudes over the mid-low reaches of the Yangtze River （MLRYR） in mid late May. The timing of this convergence corresponds to the flood period in early-mid June. The ISO index is significantly and positively correlated with rainfall over the MLRYR. During the dry phase （before the transition）, the upper troposphere over the MLRYR is characterized by cyclonic flow, easterly winds, and convergence. The regional circulation is dominated by a wave train with a cyclone over east of Lake Baikal, an anticyclone over northern China, and a cyclone over the MLRYR. During the wet phase, the situation is reversed. The configuration of the wave train during the dry phase favors the southward propagation of westerly wind disturbances, while the configuration of the wave train during the wet phase favors the development and maintenance of a pumping effect and sustained ascending motions over the MLRYR.

全球气候变化下海洋环流多尺度演变:联动协同与环境生态效应初探

海洋环流是海洋系统物质能量收支、配置、平衡、维持和变化的关键通道与机制。从全球海洋视角,基于目前海洋环流多变率动力过程与趋势演变的认知,重点综述气候变化下海洋环流的海盆尺度三维联动特征机制、洋际交换与协同、世界大洋经向输运变化以及相关的海洋气候与环境生态效应,依据研究现状和需求,提出研究建议。结果表明:全球一致性变暖路径与进程调控下,受驱动因子的演变与胁迫,海洋环流变化对副热带中高纬地区年际、年代际气候与环境变迁具有突出作用影响,并可产生显著环境生态效应和严重致灾风险。建议加大专精特新观测仪器自主研发,通过国际合作加大中高纬海洋环流多尺度动力过程综合调查的参与度和主导性,增强多学科融合交叉研究力度,有效提升深层次海洋环流变异及动力、环境、生态灾害影响的气候变化综合风险预测预评估和防治能力,为海洋领域能源开发、生态系统保护、气候变化应对与灾害风险治理提供必要的动力学参考。

夏季欧亚中高纬集合预报环流系统的适用性分析

基于欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)、美国国家环境预报中心(NCEP)和加拿大气象中心(CMC)集合预报资料与ERA-Interim再分析资料,采用距平相关系数、均方根误差和相对作用特征曲线分析法,探讨夏季欧亚中高纬集合预报环流系统的适用性。结果表明:集合概率预报效果随着预报时效增加而降低,ECMWF集合预报的效果最佳,CMC集合预报的效果最差;ECMWF集合预报可用预报时效为192 h,NCEP集合预报为180 h,CMC集合预报为168 h;集合平均的预报效果优于集合成员,控制预报略优于其他成员。其中,集合平均的可用预报时效较控制预报延长12 h,较其他成员延长36 h;相同预报模式在不同起报时间的可用预报时效和精确度的差异明显;阻塞高压和西太平洋副热带高压的预报效果在研究时段具有周期性,但总体随预报时效延长而降低,阻塞高压区在240 h预报时效后降幅减缓,乌拉尔山阻塞高压甚至呈增加趋势,300 h预报时效附近预报效果达到最好,西太平洋副热带高压可用预报时效低于阻塞高压,但精确度明显高于阻塞高压。

广东前汛期持续性暴雨的变化特征及其环流形势

利用1961-2011年广东省86个测站地面观测逐日降水资料及1979-2011年NCEP-DOE第2套分析资料,提出了广东暴雨日的定义指标,分析了近51 a广东前汛期及其各月持续性暴雨的变化特征,进一步诊断了持续性暴雨过程的环流特征和水汽输送来源。结果表明,广东暴雨新指标避免了原指标定义存在的不合理情况和需要人工操作等问题,并且得到的广东暴雨日数及暴雨累积雨量的年际变化更能反映广东的旱涝情况。51 a平均前汛期持续性暴雨过程在4、5、6月分别占10%、29%和61%,20世纪60年代后期至80年代持续性暴雨多发生在5月,而60年代前中期、90年代至2011年持续性暴雨则主要在6月出现,这种年代际变化是由东亚地区中低纬度大气环流系统的变化所造成的。除了过去所认识的"三脊两槽"和"两脊一槽"两种类型天气形势外,广东前汛期持续性暴雨过程的500 hPa中高纬度环流还有一种"高纬阻塞-中纬平缓型"(称为Ⅲ型),Ⅲ型主要出现于6月,占6月持续性暴雨过程的22%,因此,这种环流类型的补充提出,将减少6月持续性暴雨过程的漏报现象。由于气候背景场各月有所不同,无论是三脊二槽型还是二脊一槽型,各区域槽(或脊)的相对强弱和形态也随月份有所不同,例如二脊一槽型,东北亚地区高压脊4、5、6月逐月加强向北扩展,贝加尔湖槽区逐月变宽,中低纬度阿拉伯海以东槽逐月向西移动,孟加拉湾槽、西太平洋副热带高压逐月加强。前汛期持续性暴雨过程的主要水汽来源随月份发生变化,4月热带西太平洋地区水汽来源贡献最大,5月孟加拉湾、西太平洋和中国南海的水汽都有贡献,而6月则主要来源于孟加拉湾的水汽输送。所有类型持续性暴雨过程,广东大部分地区都处于水汽通量辐合区,说明动力辐合作用和水汽来源是暴雨的必备条件,持续性暴雨是各类中高纬度环流型的稳定维持与来源于热带的水汽输送共同作用的结果。

关于东亚冬季风指数的一个讨论——东亚中、低纬冬季风的差异

利用NCEP再分析资料和NOAA海表温度等资料,分析了东亚冬季风在不同纬度上的表现。根据我们定义的东亚中纬度冬季风(The mid latitudinal East Asian winter monsoon,简称EAWM-M)和低纬度冬季风(The low latitudinal East Asianwinter monsoon,简称EAWM-L)指数,探讨了它们对应的影响系统,并重点分析了它们与海温异常之间联系的异同。研究主要发现:(1)EAWM-L和EAWM-M指数所反映的东亚冬季大气环流形势不尽相同。在对流层低层,EAWM-L与中国南海、菲律宾附近环流异常的关系密切,EAWM-M与贝加尔湖阻塞高压的关系更为密切;在对流层中层,EAWM-M同样与贝加尔湖阻塞高压异常的联系相对更为紧密,而EAWM-L指数则与东亚大槽的关系更为紧密。在对流层高层,副热带西风急流强度变化通过调制次级环流进而与EAWM-L联系起来,而EAWM-M强弱变化主要与副热带西风急流北界的位置有关。(2)EAWM-L与冬季赤道中东太平洋和热带印度洋海温异常的联系都很紧密,而EAWM-M变化与冬季热带印度洋海温异常的联系更为密切,与赤道中东太平洋海温异常的关系相对偏弱。EAWM-L与冬季赤道中东太平洋和热带印度洋海温异常的紧密联系在年际和年代际尺度上都是存在的,而EAWM-M与冬季热带印度洋海温异常的紧密联系主要体现在年代际尺度上。

热带气旋的登陆及其与中纬度环流系统相互作用的研究

热带气旋的主要灾害往往在登陆前后造成，登陆问题是当今热带气旋 研究的重点。热带气旋与中纬度环流系统相互作用，不仅影响热带气旋的结构和强度变化， 也对中纬度地区天气产生重大影响。西风槽强度的变化可使热带气旋的降水突然 增幅３０％。环境场的急剧调整常引起热带气旋运动突变，在弱环境场中，热带气旋的异常运 动与非对称结构关系紧密。中纬度系统对热带气旋的非对称结构有重要影响。另一方面，热 带气旋向极移动过程中携带了大量可供中纬度地区降水的水汽，在气旋性切变的环境场中， 热带气旋还向环境场输送能量，并激发和增强中纬度气旋性环流系统的发展，触发严重的灾 害性天气。热带气旋有时也会截断低纬向中纬度的水汽输送及中纬度波动的能量频散，９５％ 左右的南海热带气旋对梅雨有显著影响，其中约８６％的热带气旋会导致梅雨减弱中断甚至结 束。

9406号台风与中纬度系统相互作用的中尺度特征

利用非静力中尺度模式MM5,对9406号台风从1994年7月11日12时（世界时,下同）到12日12时之间的24h降水进行了模拟,采用滤波分析方法对模式结果进行了尺度分离。中尺度场的分析表明:台风与中纬度系统的相互作用非常显著地表现在中尺度系统的活动上;高低空中尺度散度场的分布对中低纬系统相互作用所产生的降水具有一定的指示意义;台风及西风槽强度的改变将直接导致中尺度系统强度的变化,从而造成降水强度的不同。另外,还从能量学角度对不同尺度系统的能量变化进行了分析。结果表明,中尺度场的能量变化极值区与中低纬度系统的强度变化密切相关,且与降水的变化有较好的对应关系。