1研究背景。已有研究表明,b值主要取决于震源区应力状况和介质性质,并与应力呈反比关系(Scholz,1968;Wyss,1973;Urbancic et al,1992),b值高,表示区域平均应力低,b值低,则区域平均应力高。因此b值可以作为衡量区域应力水平的一个指标(Wy...1研究背景。已有研究表明,b值主要取决于震源区应力状况和介质性质,并与应力呈反比关系(Scholz,1968;Wyss,1973;Urbancic et al,1992),b值高,表示区域平均应力低,b值低,则区域平均应力高。因此b值可以作为衡量区域应力水平的一个指标(Wyss et al,2000),用于地震危险区判定。展开更多
There is some disagreement in the published literature regarding the definition and the measurement of housing bubbles in China. Extending the analytical framework of Black et al. （2006）, the present paper measures ...There is some disagreement in the published literature regarding the definition and the measurement of housing bubbles in China. Extending the analytical framework of Black et al. （2006）, the present paper measures the housing bubbles of China＇s 35 major cities from the second quarter of 1999 to the second quarter of 2010. The results indicate that the housing bubbles in China＇s 35 major cities were relatively small in the sample interval, but the bubbles in eastern metropolises, such as Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou and Ningbo, have been relatively big since 2005. The changing tendency of housing bubbles in most cities highly corresponds with the changes in real estate policies. This paper decomposes the housing bubbles of the 35 cities, and finds a great proportion of irrational bubbles rather than rational intrinsic bubbles generated by price speculation. Based on empirical analysis, this paper proposes policy recommendations for preventing the generation and expansion of housing bubbles.展开更多
文摘1研究背景。已有研究表明,b值主要取决于震源区应力状况和介质性质,并与应力呈反比关系(Scholz,1968;Wyss,1973;Urbancic et al,1992),b值高,表示区域平均应力低,b值低,则区域平均应力高。因此b值可以作为衡量区域应力水平的一个指标(Wyss et al,2000),用于地震危险区判定。
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.71173223)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universitiesthe Research Funds of Renmin University of China(No.10XNF049)
文摘There is some disagreement in the published literature regarding the definition and the measurement of housing bubbles in China. Extending the analytical framework of Black et al. （2006）, the present paper measures the housing bubbles of China＇s 35 major cities from the second quarter of 1999 to the second quarter of 2010. The results indicate that the housing bubbles in China＇s 35 major cities were relatively small in the sample interval, but the bubbles in eastern metropolises, such as Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou and Ningbo, have been relatively big since 2005. The changing tendency of housing bubbles in most cities highly corresponds with the changes in real estate policies. This paper decomposes the housing bubbles of the 35 cities, and finds a great proportion of irrational bubbles rather than rational intrinsic bubbles generated by price speculation. Based on empirical analysis, this paper proposes policy recommendations for preventing the generation and expansion of housing bubbles.
