The IAP numerical annual climate predictionsystem has been presented in this paper. In order to evaluatethis annual prediction system, annual ensemble hindcastexperiments over a 21-year period from 1980 to 2000 havebe...The IAP numerical annual climate predictionsystem has been presented in this paper. In order to evaluatethis annual prediction system, annual ensemble hindcastexperiments over a 21-year period from 1980 to 2000 havebeen done. Systematic assessment shows that this annualprediction system has higher predictability for summer cli-mate in tropic than in extra-tropic area, and higher predict-abilities over ocean than over land for the fields of precipita-tion, sea level pressure and surface air temperature; for 500hPa geopotential height field, the predictability assuming azonal distribution decreases from tropic to middle-high lati-tudes, and in China it is the highest among those of all fields.Correlation analysis shows that the prediction ability of IAPannual prediction system to summer temperature is higherthan that to precipitation, and the prediction skill can beremarkably improved by the correction system. Furthermore,the comparison between annual and extraseasonal hindcastsindicates that precipitation hindcasted extraseasonally isbetter than that done annually, and the major discrepancyexists in middle-high latitudes.展开更多
A regional climate-ecosystem model system isdeveloped in this study. It overcomes the weakness in tradi-tional one-way coupling models and enables detailed descrip-tion of interactive process between climate and natur...A regional climate-ecosystem model system isdeveloped in this study. It overcomes the weakness in tradi-tional one-way coupling models and enables detailed descrip-tion of interactive process between climate and natural eco-system. It is applied to interaction study between monsoonclimate and ecosystem in East Asia, with emphasis on futureclimate and ecosystem change scenario forced by doubledCO<sub>2</sub>. The climate tends to be warmer and wetter under dou-bled CO<sub>2</sub> in Jianghuai and the Yangzi River valley, but itbecomes warmer and drier in inland areas of northern andnorthwestern China. The largest changes and feedbacks be-tween vegetation and climate occur in northern China,Northern inland ecosystems experience considerable degra-dation and desertification, indicating a marked sensitivityand vulnerability to climatic change. The strongest vegeta-tion response to climate change occurs in northern Chinaand the weakest in southern China. Vegetation feedbacksintensify warming and reduce drying due to increased CO<sub>2</sub>during summer in northern China. Generally, vegeta-tion-climate interactions are much stronger in northernChina than in southern China.展开更多
文摘The IAP numerical annual climate predictionsystem has been presented in this paper. In order to evaluatethis annual prediction system, annual ensemble hindcastexperiments over a 21-year period from 1980 to 2000 havebeen done. Systematic assessment shows that this annualprediction system has higher predictability for summer cli-mate in tropic than in extra-tropic area, and higher predict-abilities over ocean than over land for the fields of precipita-tion, sea level pressure and surface air temperature; for 500hPa geopotential height field, the predictability assuming azonal distribution decreases from tropic to middle-high lati-tudes, and in China it is the highest among those of all fields.Correlation analysis shows that the prediction ability of IAPannual prediction system to summer temperature is higherthan that to precipitation, and the prediction skill can beremarkably improved by the correction system. Furthermore,the comparison between annual and extraseasonal hindcastsindicates that precipitation hindcasted extraseasonally isbetter than that done annually, and the major discrepancyexists in middle-high latitudes.
文摘A regional climate-ecosystem model system isdeveloped in this study. It overcomes the weakness in tradi-tional one-way coupling models and enables detailed descrip-tion of interactive process between climate and natural eco-system. It is applied to interaction study between monsoonclimate and ecosystem in East Asia, with emphasis on futureclimate and ecosystem change scenario forced by doubledCO<sub>2</sub>. The climate tends to be warmer and wetter under dou-bled CO<sub>2</sub> in Jianghuai and the Yangzi River valley, but itbecomes warmer and drier in inland areas of northern andnorthwestern China. The largest changes and feedbacks be-tween vegetation and climate occur in northern China,Northern inland ecosystems experience considerable degra-dation and desertification, indicating a marked sensitivityand vulnerability to climatic change. The strongest vegeta-tion response to climate change occurs in northern Chinaand the weakest in southern China. Vegetation feedbacksintensify warming and reduce drying due to increased CO<sub>2</sub>during summer in northern China. Generally, vegeta-tion-climate interactions are much stronger in northernChina than in southern China.
