The scientific idea of earthquake prediction in China is introduced in this paper. The various problems on evaluation of earthquake prediction ability are analyzed. The practical effect of prediction on annual seismic...The scientific idea of earthquake prediction in China is introduced in this paper. The various problems on evaluation of earthquake prediction ability are analyzed. The practical effect of prediction on annual seismic risk areas in 1990~2000 in China is discussed based on R-value evaluation method, and the ability of present earthquake prediction in China is reviewed.展开更多
[Objective] The aim was to predict the annual precipitation using the method of Superimposed Marcov Chain.[Method] Based on annual precipitation in Xiaojin station on western Sichuan Plateau during 1961-2010,the Super...[Objective] The aim was to predict the annual precipitation using the method of Superimposed Marcov Chain.[Method] Based on annual precipitation in Xiaojin station on western Sichuan Plateau during 1961-2010,the Superimposed Marcov Chain method was applied to predict annual precipitation from 2001 to 2010.The prediction based on the Superimposed Marcov Chain method was compared with the observed data.[Result] For the ten years (2001-2010),the relative error in 7 years was less than 10%,even less than 5% in 4 years,which proved that Superimposed Marcov Chain can predict annual precipitation.But this method had certain defect in prediction in the extreme dry or extreme wet years,and that needs to be improved in the following study.[Conclusion] The Superimposed Marcov Chain method had clear concept,was convenient to calculate,and provided a way to explore the improvement of precipitation prediction.展开更多
An analytics method of predicting the annual variation rate (AVR) of global sea-level (GSL) is developed.Through the calculation by using the mean sea-level data collected from the tidal gauge stations over the world,...An analytics method of predicting the annual variation rate (AVR) of global sea-level (GSL) is developed.Through the calculation by using the mean sea-level data collected from the tidal gauge stations over the world, a GSL rise of 0. 15～0. 16 cm/a is obtained. The predicted values of AVR of GSL for the 21st century are presented. The authors' results have been compared to those reported by other scientists at home and abroad. The method proposedhere is more convenient and precise.展开更多
[Objective] The research aimed to study the application of ordinal set pair analysis in the annual precipitation prediction of Liao River basin.[Method] The ordinal theory was introduced into the set pair analysis mod...[Objective] The research aimed to study the application of ordinal set pair analysis in the annual precipitation prediction of Liao River basin.[Method] The ordinal theory was introduced into the set pair analysis modeling,and the prediction model of set pair analysis was improved.A kind of rainfall prediction model based on the ordinal set pair analysis (OSPA) was put forward.The time sequence of annual rainfall in the hydrological rainfall station of Liao River basin during 1956-2006 was the research objective.The annual rainfall during 1998-2006 was predicted by the model,and the error analysis was given.[Result] In the relative errors of predicted results by ordinal set pair analysis,there were six relative errors within 5%,which occupied 66.7% of the total prediction number.One relative error was during 5%-10%,which occupied 11.1% of the total prediction number.Two relative errors were during 10%-15%,which occupied 22.2% of the total prediction number.All the relative errors were less than 20%,which met the precision requirement of annual rainfall prediction in Forecast Specification of Hydrological Information.[Conclusion] The rainfall prediction based on the ordinal set pair analysis model had high precision,and the prediction result was ideal.It was suitable for the annual rainfall prediction.展开更多
This study investigates annual earnings analysis with ARIMA （Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average） for future earnings prediction. Earnings prediction is very important to be used in various aspect of decision m...This study investigates annual earnings analysis with ARIMA （Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average） for future earnings prediction. Earnings prediction is very important to be used in various aspect of decision making process, such as： investor, creditor, analyst, academicians, practitioners, etc.. Evidence supports the ARIMA model that it is more accurate. It also has a smaller size of error value.展开更多
In the context of 1905–1995 series from Nanjing and Hangzhou, study is undertaken of estab-lishing a predictive model of annual mean temperature in 1996–2005 to come over the Changjiang (Yangtze River) delta region ...In the context of 1905–1995 series from Nanjing and Hangzhou, study is undertaken of estab-lishing a predictive model of annual mean temperature in 1996–2005 to come over the Changjiang (Yangtze River) delta region through mean generating function and artificial neural network in combination. Results show that the established model yields mean error of 0.45°C for their abso-lute values of annual mean temperature from 10 yearly independent samples (1986–1995) and the difference between the mean predictions and related measurements is 0.156°C. The developed model is found superior to a mean generating function regression model both in historical data fit-ting and independent sample prediction. Key words Climate trend prediction. Mean generating function (MGF) - Artificial neural network (ANN) - Annual mean temperature (AMT)展开更多
1.Speed up the development of the fifth energyresource-electrical energy-savingThe world experienced serious energy crises twice in the1970’s,but the situation was alleviated at the beginning of the 1980s.Comprehensi...1.Speed up the development of the fifth energyresource-electrical energy-savingThe world experienced serious energy crises twice in the1970’s,but the situation was alleviated at the beginning of the 1980s.Comprehensive reports published by international energy organiza-tions in 1986 summed up the important achievements of energy-sav-ing obtained in 19 main industrialized countries in the period of 1973to 1985.Their primary experience is to bring about the structuralenergy-saving by relying on the technical progress,that is,changingthe high energy consumption industries to low consumption ones.This change tided them successfully over the energy crises,moreo-展开更多
An ensemble prediction system based on the GRAPES model, using multi-physics, is used to discuss the influence of different physical processes in numerical models on forecast of heavy rainfall in South China in the an...An ensemble prediction system based on the GRAPES model, using multi-physics, is used to discuss the influence of different physical processes in numerical models on forecast of heavy rainfall in South China in the annually first raining season(AFRS). Pattern, magnitude and area of precipitation, evolution of synoptic situation, as well as apparent heat source and apparent moisture sink between different ensemble members are comparatively analyzed. The choice of parameterization scheme for land-surface processes gives rise to the largest influence on the precipitation prediction. The influences of cumulus-convection and cloud-microphysics processes are mainly focused on heavy rainfall;the use of cumulus-convection parameterization tends to produce large-area and light rainfall. Change in parameterization schemes for land-surface and cumulus-convection processes both will cause prominent change in forecast of both dynamic and thermodynamic variables, while change in cloud-microphysics processes show primary impact on dynamic variables. Comparing simplified Arakawa-Schubert and Kain-Fritsch with Betts-Miller-Janjic schemes, SLAB with NOAH schemes, as well as both WRF single moment 6-class and NCEP 3-class with simplified explicit schemes of phase-mixed cloud and precipitation shows that the former predicts stronger low-level jets and high humidity concentration, more convective rainfall and local heavy rainfall, and have better performance in precipitation forecast. Appropriate parameterization schemes can reasonably describe the physical process related to heavy rainfall in South China in the AFRS, such as low-level convergence, latent heat release, vertical transport of heat and water vapor, thereby depicting the multi-scale interactions of low-level jet and meso-scale convective systems in heavy rainfall suitably, and improving the prediction of heavy rainfall in South China in the AFRS as a result.展开更多
Relationships between large-scale zonal wind anomalies and annual frequency of NW Pacific tropical cyclones and possible mechanisms are investigated with the methods of correlation and composition. It is indicated tha...Relationships between large-scale zonal wind anomalies and annual frequency of NW Pacific tropical cyclones and possible mechanisms are investigated with the methods of correlation and composition. It is indicated that when A U2oo- A U850 〉0 in the eastern tropical Pacific and A U2oo- A U850 〈0 in western tropical Pacific, the Walker cell is stronger in the Pacific tropical region and the annual frequency of NW Pacific tropical cyclone are above normal. In the years with zonal wind anomalies, the circulation of high and low troposphere and the vertical motions in the troposphere have significant characteristics. In the time scale of short-range climate prediction, zonal wind anomalies in high and low troposphere are useful as a preliminary signal of the annual frequency prediction of NW Pacific tropical cyclones.展开更多
基金The Development and Planning Project of National Important Base Research (G19980407).
文摘The scientific idea of earthquake prediction in China is introduced in this paper. The various problems on evaluation of earthquake prediction ability are analyzed. The practical effect of prediction on annual seismic risk areas in 1990~2000 in China is discussed based on R-value evaluation method, and the ability of present earthquake prediction in China is reviewed.
基金Supported by Plateau Meteorology Lab of Institute of Plateau Meteorology,CMA,Chengdu
文摘[Objective] The aim was to predict the annual precipitation using the method of Superimposed Marcov Chain.[Method] Based on annual precipitation in Xiaojin station on western Sichuan Plateau during 1961-2010,the Superimposed Marcov Chain method was applied to predict annual precipitation from 2001 to 2010.The prediction based on the Superimposed Marcov Chain method was compared with the observed data.[Result] For the ten years (2001-2010),the relative error in 7 years was less than 10%,even less than 5% in 4 years,which proved that Superimposed Marcov Chain can predict annual precipitation.But this method had certain defect in prediction in the extreme dry or extreme wet years,and that needs to be improved in the following study.[Conclusion] The Superimposed Marcov Chain method had clear concept,was convenient to calculate,and provided a way to explore the improvement of precipitation prediction.
文摘An analytics method of predicting the annual variation rate (AVR) of global sea-level (GSL) is developed.Through the calculation by using the mean sea-level data collected from the tidal gauge stations over the world, a GSL rise of 0. 15～0. 16 cm/a is obtained. The predicted values of AVR of GSL for the 21st century are presented. The authors' results have been compared to those reported by other scientists at home and abroad. The method proposedhere is more convenient and precise.
基金Supported by National Eleventh Five-year Water Special Item(2009ZX07208-010-T004)High-level Talent Introduction Plan Item, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power(200926)+2 种基金Natural Science Research of Henan Education Department(2009A570002)Young Core Teacher Plan Item in Henan Province(2009GGJ3-061)Graduate Education Innovation Plan Foundation,North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power(YK2010-12)
文摘[Objective] The research aimed to study the application of ordinal set pair analysis in the annual precipitation prediction of Liao River basin.[Method] The ordinal theory was introduced into the set pair analysis modeling,and the prediction model of set pair analysis was improved.A kind of rainfall prediction model based on the ordinal set pair analysis (OSPA) was put forward.The time sequence of annual rainfall in the hydrological rainfall station of Liao River basin during 1956-2006 was the research objective.The annual rainfall during 1998-2006 was predicted by the model,and the error analysis was given.[Result] In the relative errors of predicted results by ordinal set pair analysis,there were six relative errors within 5%,which occupied 66.7% of the total prediction number.One relative error was during 5%-10%,which occupied 11.1% of the total prediction number.Two relative errors were during 10%-15%,which occupied 22.2% of the total prediction number.All the relative errors were less than 20%,which met the precision requirement of annual rainfall prediction in Forecast Specification of Hydrological Information.[Conclusion] The rainfall prediction based on the ordinal set pair analysis model had high precision,and the prediction result was ideal.It was suitable for the annual rainfall prediction.
文摘This study investigates annual earnings analysis with ARIMA （Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average） for future earnings prediction. Earnings prediction is very important to be used in various aspect of decision making process, such as： investor, creditor, analyst, academicians, practitioners, etc.. Evidence supports the ARIMA model that it is more accurate. It also has a smaller size of error value.
文摘In the context of 1905–1995 series from Nanjing and Hangzhou, study is undertaken of estab-lishing a predictive model of annual mean temperature in 1996–2005 to come over the Changjiang (Yangtze River) delta region through mean generating function and artificial neural network in combination. Results show that the established model yields mean error of 0.45°C for their abso-lute values of annual mean temperature from 10 yearly independent samples (1986–1995) and the difference between the mean predictions and related measurements is 0.156°C. The developed model is found superior to a mean generating function regression model both in historical data fit-ting and independent sample prediction. Key words Climate trend prediction. Mean generating function (MGF) - Artificial neural network (ANN) - Annual mean temperature (AMT)
文摘1.Speed up the development of the fifth energyresource-electrical energy-savingThe world experienced serious energy crises twice in the1970’s,but the situation was alleviated at the beginning of the 1980s.Comprehensive reports published by international energy organiza-tions in 1986 summed up the important achievements of energy-sav-ing obtained in 19 main industrialized countries in the period of 1973to 1985.Their primary experience is to bring about the structuralenergy-saving by relying on the technical progress,that is,changingthe high energy consumption industries to low consumption ones.This change tided them successfully over the energy crises,moreo-
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(41405104)Specialized Project for Public Welfare Industries(Meteorological Sector)(GYHY201306004)+2 种基金Guangdong Science and Technology Planning Project(2012A061400012)Project of Guangdong Provincial Meteorological Bureau for Science and Technology(2013A04)Science and Technology Plan for the 12th Five-Year of Social and Economic Development(2012BAC22B00)
文摘An ensemble prediction system based on the GRAPES model, using multi-physics, is used to discuss the influence of different physical processes in numerical models on forecast of heavy rainfall in South China in the annually first raining season(AFRS). Pattern, magnitude and area of precipitation, evolution of synoptic situation, as well as apparent heat source and apparent moisture sink between different ensemble members are comparatively analyzed. The choice of parameterization scheme for land-surface processes gives rise to the largest influence on the precipitation prediction. The influences of cumulus-convection and cloud-microphysics processes are mainly focused on heavy rainfall;the use of cumulus-convection parameterization tends to produce large-area and light rainfall. Change in parameterization schemes for land-surface and cumulus-convection processes both will cause prominent change in forecast of both dynamic and thermodynamic variables, while change in cloud-microphysics processes show primary impact on dynamic variables. Comparing simplified Arakawa-Schubert and Kain-Fritsch with Betts-Miller-Janjic schemes, SLAB with NOAH schemes, as well as both WRF single moment 6-class and NCEP 3-class with simplified explicit schemes of phase-mixed cloud and precipitation shows that the former predicts stronger low-level jets and high humidity concentration, more convective rainfall and local heavy rainfall, and have better performance in precipitation forecast. Appropriate parameterization schemes can reasonably describe the physical process related to heavy rainfall in South China in the AFRS, such as low-level convergence, latent heat release, vertical transport of heat and water vapor, thereby depicting the multi-scale interactions of low-level jet and meso-scale convective systems in heavy rainfall suitably, and improving the prediction of heavy rainfall in South China in the AFRS as a result.
基金Research on predictive signals and methods for short-short climate of annual frequency oftyphoons, a project from the research fund on typhoons of 2003 – 2004 at Shanghai Typhoon Institute
文摘Relationships between large-scale zonal wind anomalies and annual frequency of NW Pacific tropical cyclones and possible mechanisms are investigated with the methods of correlation and composition. It is indicated that when A U2oo- A U850 〉0 in the eastern tropical Pacific and A U2oo- A U850 〈0 in western tropical Pacific, the Walker cell is stronger in the Pacific tropical region and the annual frequency of NW Pacific tropical cyclone are above normal. In the years with zonal wind anomalies, the circulation of high and low troposphere and the vertical motions in the troposphere have significant characteristics. In the time scale of short-range climate prediction, zonal wind anomalies in high and low troposphere are useful as a preliminary signal of the annual frequency prediction of NW Pacific tropical cyclones.
