Assessment of Climate for Agricultural Suitability and Optimal Allocation of Agricultural Production in the Guanzhong Region, Shaanxi Province

Based on spatial climatic data of agriculture and the experiment data, the models of agro-ecological assessment of climate for agricultural suitability in this study were developed using the fuzzy mathematical method. Three coefficients, in- cluding the resource coefficient （Cr）, the efficiency coefficient （Ce）, and the utility co- efficient （K）, were used in the models, which were calculated based on temperature, moisture, and sunshine duration data of Guanzhong region, Shaanxi Province. The results indicated that resource coefficient was higher in west of the region than that in east, and higher in south （especially in the Central Shaanxi Plain） than that in the Weibei plateau. The value of Cr changed from 6.5 to 9.2 from north to plain area. Spatial change of efficiency coefficient was obvious, lower in the northeast than in the central plain, and the value of Ce changed from 2.3 to 6.5 from the northeast to the central plain. As for utility coefficient, it was lower in northeastern part of the Weibei plateau and in southern mountain areas than that in the central plain, showing significant latitudinal zonality. Furthermore, the value of K increased from 0.35 to 0.78 from northeast to the central plain, and decreased from 0.78 to 0.53 from the central plain to southern mountain areas. These indicated that climate resource in the central plain region was more abundant and potential, compared with other regions. GuanZhong region was classified into three larger agricultural zones and three small independent zones, according to agro-ecological assessment. Light, heat and water resources should be made use of in an efficient way in spatial allo- cation of agricultural production. For example, water facilities should also be im- proved in Weibei plateau region where highly-qualified fruit should be enhanced and fruit processing industrial chain should be shaped. Large-scale production area of wheat should be increased in central irrigation region and more vegetable bases should be developed around large and medium-scale cities. Thanks for outstanding water conservation function, the three-dimensional agriculture including medicine and other sideline production should be developed in Qinling Mountains and the special- ized commercial agriculture should be accelerated in independent small zones, ac- cording to local conditions. In the research, different crop varieties were developed in corresponding regions as per current eco-climatic conditions.

Assessment of Climate Change over South America under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 Downscaling Scenarios

Four sets of downscaling simulations based on the Eta Regional Climate Model forced by two global climate models, the HadGEM2-ES and the MIROC5, and two RCP scenarios—8.5 and 4.5, have been carried out. The objective of this work is to assess the climate change over South America based on the Eta simulations. The future changes are shown in timeslices of 30 years: 2011-2040;2041-2070 and 2071-2100. The climate change response of the Eta simulations nested in HadGEM2-ES is larger than the Eta nested in MIROC5. Major warming area is located in the central part of Brazil. In austral summer, the reduction of precipitation in the central part and the increase in the southeastern part of the continent are common changes in these simulations, while the EtaHadGEM2-ES intensifies the decrease of precipitation in central Brazil, the Eta-MIROC5 expands the area of increase of precipitation in southern Brazil toward the end of the century. In austral winter, precipitation decrease is found in the northern part of South America and in most of Central America, whereas the reduction in southeastern South America is limited to near coastal region. The time series of temperatures show that warming trends are larger in the Eta-HadGEM2-ES than in the Eta-MIROC5 simulations. Heavier precipitation rates are projected in the Central-South of Brazil toward the end of the century. Increase in the length of consecutive dry days (CDD) in Northeast of Brazil and the decrease of consecutive wet days (CWD) in the Amazon region are common features in these simulations.

Climate Changes and Countermeasures for Meteorological Disasters during Production Period in Vegetable Greenhouse in Northern Shenyang Province

[Objective] The aim was to study the climate changes and countermeasures for meteorological disasters during production period in vegetable greenhouse in northern Shenyang. [Method] By dint of local climate data in recent 38 years and using the conventional method of mathematical statistics, the climate changes and countermeasures for meteorological disasters during production period in vegetable greenhouse in northern Shenyang were expounded. [Result] In general, the sunshine condition in new area of Shenyang was normal. Winter sunshine time in Shenyang was short (551). Sunshine hours in each year were decreasing each year, but the decreasing span was not distinct. The temperature climate tendency during growth period of vegetables in greenhouse in new area of north Shenyang was 0.371 ℃/10 a. The winter climate trend rate of 0.313 ℃/10 a; Though the climate was increasing, the wave range was large, difficult to produce; in the cold period (November to March), precipitation in each year and rainy days were increasing, having large influence on the production of vegetables in greenhouse. The low temperature and cloudy days were the characteristics of climate in winter in that area, having disadvantageous to the development of vegetables. Warming measures in winter was expected to conduct. [Conclusion] The study provided scientific accordance to the development of agriculture industry in the local area.

A Study on Extreme Temperature and Climate Events in Zhejiang Region of East China

The extreme high temperature anomaly (EHTA) events in a region are one of the most important climatic parameters to make climate assessment of the trend of regional climate change. The diagnosis and analysis of the EHTA event in Zhejiang Province in East China in 2022 show that the event has set the rarest record in this region in the past 71 years from both time and space perspectives. The results of Mann-Kendall trend analysis showed that the mean annual high temperature days in Zhejiang Province had a sudden change. The sudden change occurred around 2004, and the trend was rising after the sudden change.

An Alternative Means of Assessing Climate Models

The authors compared two different sets of assessment of the abilities of contemporary climate models. One group is made of experts, and their results are provided in two expert reports, while the other is the subjective assessment made by ＂physical climate scientists＂ in general, sampled in a series of three survey questionnaires. The expert group is considerably more optimistic than the general group; the former suggesting progress, while the perception of the latter group is more or less stationary.

Downscaling Climate Projections over La Plata Basin

Regional Climate Models are important tools, which are increasingly being used in studies of impacts and adaptation to climate change at local scale. The goal of this work is to assess the climate change over the La Plata Basin, using the Eta Regional model with a resolution of 10 km. Initial and boundary conditions used by the model are provided by the Eta-20 km model and the HadGEM2-ES Global model. The RCP 4.5 scenario was used for simulations of the future climate. The evaluation of the present climate (1961-1990) shows that the model represents well the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation and temperature in the region. The model underestimates precipitation over large areas in summer, and overestimates in Southern Brazil in winter. Simulated temperature shows a good correlation with CRU data, with bias less than 1°C. The bias of temperature and precipitation in this simulation setup for the La Plata Basin is substantially reduced in comparison with previous literature using regional models. The climatic projections are shown in timeslices: 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2099. In the three timeslices, the simulation project has a trend for an increase in precipitation during summer in Argentina, Uruguay, and southernmost Brazil. This increase is only projected in Southern Brazil during winter. The negative anomaly of precipitation appears in a large portion of the model domain during summer and is limited to some states in Southeast and Central-West Brazil in winter. The area with largest warming is projected in the northern portion of the domain. The projected increase in temperature reaches about 4°C in 2071-2099.

Establishment of Prediction Method of Tourism Meteorological Index in Langzhong Ancient City

Based on the meteorological data of Langzhong from 2010 to 2020,the human body comfort index was calculated,and tourism climate comfort was evaluated to establish the prediction equation of tourism meteorological index.OLS was used to compare the correlation between actual tourist flow and tourism meteorological index and test the model effect.Average correlation coefficient R was 0.7017,so the correlation was strong,and P value was 0.The two were significantly correlated at 0.01 level(bilateral).It can be seen that the forecast equation of tourism meteorological index had a strong correlation with the actual number of tourists,and the predicted value was basically close to the actual situation,and the forecast effect is good.

Simulation evaluation and future prediction of the IPCC—AR4 GCMs on the extreme temperatures in China

On the basis of the temperature observations during 1961-2000 in China, seven coupled general circulation models＇ （GCMs） extreme temperature products are evaluated supplied by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change＇ s 4th Assessment Report （IPCC-AR4）. The extreme temperature indices in use are frost days （FD）, growing season length （GSL）, extreme temperature range （ETR）, warm nights （TN90）, and heat wave duration index （HWDI）. Results indicate that all the seven models are capable of simulating spatial and temporal variations in temperature characteristics, and their ensemble acts more reliable than any single one. Among the seven models, GFDL-CM2.0 and MIROC3.2 performances are much better. Besides, most of the models are able to present linear trends of the same positive/negative signs as the observations but for weaker intensities. The simulation effects are different on a nationwide basis, with 110°N as the division, east （west） of which the effects are better （worse） and the poorer over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau in China. The predictions for the 21st century on emissions scenarios show that except decreases in the FD and ETR, other indices display significant increasing trend, especially for the indices of HWDI and TN90, which represent the notable extreme climate. This indicates that the temperature-related climate is moving towards the extreme. In the late 21st century, the GSL and TN90 （HWDI） increase most notably in southwest China （the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau）, and the FD decrease most remarkably in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, northwest and northeast of China. Apart from South China, the yearly change range of the extreme temperature is reduced in most of China.

Advancing index-based climate risk assessment to facilitate adaptation planning:Application in Shanghai and Shenzhen,China

One of the key issues in climate risk management is to develop climate resilient infrastructure so as to ensure safety and sustainability of urban functioning systems as well as mitigate the adverse impacts associated with increasing climate hazards.However,conventional methods of assessing risks do not fully address the interaction of various subsystems within the city system and are unable to consolidate diverse opinions of various stakeholders on their assessments of sector-specific risks posed by climate change.To address this gap,this study advances an integrated-systems-analysis tool-Climate Risk Assessment of Infrastructure Tool(CRAIT),and applies it to analyze and compare the extent of risk factor exposure and vulnerability over time across five critical urban infrastructure sectors in Shanghai and Shenzhen,two cities that have distinctive geo-climate profiles and histories of infrastructure development.The results show significantly higher level of variation between the two cities in terms of vulnerability levels than that of exposure.More specifically,the sectors of critical buildings,water,energy,and information&communication in Shenzhen have significantly higher vulnerability levels than Shanghai in both the 2000s and the 2050s.We further discussed the vulnerability levels of subsystems in each sector and proposed twelve potential adaptation options for the roads system based on four sets of criteria:technical feasibility,flexibility,co-benefits,and policy compatibility.The application of CRAIT is bound to be a knowledge co-production process with the local experts and stakeholders.This knowledge co-production process highlights the importance of management advancements and nature-based green solutions in managing climate change risk in the future though differences are observed across the efficacy categories due to the geographical and meteorological conditions in the two cities.This study demonstrates that this knowledge co-creation process is valuable in facilitating policymakers'decision-making and their feedback to scientific understanding in climate risk assessment,and that this approach has general applicability for cities in other regions and countries.

Progress and Perspectives of Ecosystem Services: A Review

According to the latest research of ecosystem service（ ES）,the background and connotation of ecosystem services were briefly summarized,the relationship among human activity,climate change,and biodiversity and ecosystem service function（ ESF） was synthetically analyzed,the research trends of ecosystem services function assessment（ ESFA） were discussed from multi-scale,and the perspectives was given based on the past studies. The ecological long-term location monitoring method based on the ESFA should be studied,evaluation index of ESFA should be further improved,and the ESF research on the arid region should be reinforced.

Projection of climate extremes in China,an incremental exercise from CMIP5 to CMIP6

This paper presents projections of climate extremes over China under global warming of 1.5,2,and 3℃ above pre-industrial(1861–1900),based on the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6(CMIP6)simulations.Results are compared with what produced by the precedent phase of the project,CMIP5.Model evaluation for the reference period(1985–2005)indicates that CMIP6 models outperform their predecessors in CMIP5,especially in simulating precipitation extremes.Areal averages for changes of most indices are found larger in CMIP6 than in CMIP5.The emblematic annual mean temperature,when averaged over the whole of China in CMIP6,increases by 1.49,2.21,and 3.53℃(relative to1985–2005)for 1.5,2,and 3℃ above-preindustrial global warming levels,while the counterpart in CMIP5 is 1.20,1.93 and 3.39℃ respectively.Similarly,total precipitation increases by 5.3%,8.6%,and16.3%in CMIP6 and by 4.4%,7.0%and 12.8%in CMIP5,respectively.The spatial distribution of changes for extreme indices is generally consistent in both CMIP5 and CMIP6,but with significantly higher increases in CMIP6 over Northeast and Northwest China for the hottest day temperature,and South China for the coldest night temperature.In the south bank of the Yangtze River,and most regions around40°N,CMIP6 shows higher increases for both total precipitation and heavy precipitation.The projected difference between CMIP6 and CMIP5 is mainly attributable to the physical upgrading of climate models and largely independent from their emission scenarios.

Changes of citrus climate risk in subtropics of China

Based on the citrus temperature, precipitation, sunlight and climate risk degree, the article divides subtropics of China into three types： the low risk region, the moderate risk region and the high risk region. The citrus temperature risk increases with increasing latitude （except for the western mountainous area of subtropics of China）. The citrus precipitation risk in the central part of subtropics of China is higher than that in the northern and western parts. The distributions of citrus sunlight risk are not consistent to those of the citrus precipitation risk. The citrus climate risk is mainly influenced by temperature. There is latitudinal zonal law for the distribution of the climate risk, that is, the climate risk increases with increasing latitude At the same time the climate risk in mountainous area is high and that in eastern plain area is low. There are differences in the temporal and spatial changes of the citrus climate. In recent 46 years, the citrus climate risk presents a gradual increasing trend in subtropics of China, especially it has been increasing fast since the 1980s. Because of the global warming, the low risk region in the eastern and southern parts has a gradual decreasing trend, however, the high risk region in the northern and western parts has an increasing trend and the high risk region has been extending eastward and southward. The article analyses the distribution of the citrus climate risk degree of reduction rates of 〉10%, 〉20% and 〉30% in subtropics of China, and studies their changes in different time periods. Results show that the risk is increasing from southeast to northwest.

Intercomparison of multi-model ensemble-processing strategies within a consistent framework for climate projection in China

Climate change adaptation and relevant policy-making need reliable projections of future climate.Methods based on multi-model ensemble are generally considered as the most efficient way to achieve the goal.However,their efficiency varies and inter-comparison is a challenging task,as they use a variety of target variables,geographic regions,time periods,or model pools.Here,we construct and use a consistent framework to evaluate the performance of five ensemble-processing methods,i.e.,multimodel ensemble mean(MME),rank-based weighting(RANK),reliability ensemble averaging(REA),climate model weighting by independence and performance(ClimWIP),and Bayesian model averaging(BMA).We investigate the annual mean temperature(Tav)and total precipitation(Prcptot)changes(relative to 1995–2014)over China and its seven subregions at 1.5 and 2℃warming levels(relative to pre-industrial).All ensemble-processing methods perform better than MME,and achieve generally consistent results in terms of median values.But they show different results in terms of inter-model spread,served as a measure of uncertainty,and signal-to-noise ratio(SNR).ClimWIP is the most optimal method with its good performance in simulating current climate and in providing credible future projections.The uncertainty,measured by the range of 10th–90th percentiles,is reduced by about 30%for Tav,and 15%for Prcptot in China,with a certain variation among subregions.Based on ClimWIP,and averaged over whole China under 1.5/2℃global warming levels,Tav increases by about 1.1/1.8℃(relative to 1995–2014),while Prcptot increases by about 5.4%/11.2%,respectively.Reliability of projections is found dependent on investigated regions and indices.The projection for Tav is credible across all regions,as its SNR is generally larger than 2,while the SNR is lower than 1 for Prcptot over most regions under 1.5℃warming.The largest warming is found in northeastern China,with increase of 1.3(0.6–1.7)/2.0(1.4–2.6)℃(ensemble’s median and range of the 10th–90th percentiles)under 1.5/2℃warming,followed by northern and northwestern China.The smallest but the most robust warming is in southwestern China,with values exceeding 0.9(0.6–1.1)/1.5(1.1–1.7)℃.The most robust projection and largest increase is achieved in northwestern China for Prcptot,with increase of 9.1%(–1.6–24.7%)/17.9%(0.5–36.4%)under 1.5/2℃warming.Followed by northern China,where the increase is 6.0%(–2.6–17.8%)/11.8%(2.4–25.1%),respectively.The precipitation projection is of large uncertainty in southwestern China,even with uncertain sign of variation.For the additional half-degree warming,Tav increases more than 0.5℃throughout China.Almost all regions witness an increase of Prcptot,with the largest increase in northwestern China.

River management system development in Asia based on Data Integration and Analysis System(DIAS) under GEOSS

This paper introduces the process of development and practical use implementation of an advanced river management system for supporting integrated water resources management practices in Asian river basins under the framework of GEOSS Asia water cycle initiative （AWCI）. The system is based on integration of data from earth observation satellites and in-situ networks with other types of data, including numerical weather prediction model outputs, climate model outputs, geographical infor- mation, and socio-economic data. The system builds on the water and energy budget distributed hydrological model （WEB-DHM） that was adapted for specific conditions of studied basins, in particular snow and glacier phenomena and equipped with other functions such as dam operation optimization scheme and a set of tools for climate change impact assess- ment to be able to generate relevant information for policy and decision makers. In situ data were archived for 18 selected ba- sins at the Data Integration and Analysis System （DIAS） of Japan and demonstration projects were carded out showing poten- tial of the new system. It included climate change impact assessment on hydrological regimes, which is presently a critical step for sound management decisions. Results of such three case studies in Pakistan, Philippines, and Vietnam are provided here.