Livelihood vulnerability of indigenous people to climate change around the Kerinci Seblat National Park in Bengkulu,Indonesia

Indigenous people around the Kerinci Seblat National Park(KSNP),Indonesia,have a high dependence on forest resources as their main source of livelihood.This study addressed the vulnerability of Rejang indigenous people around the KSNP to climate change.The popular livelihood vulnerability index(LVI)model was adapted by adding and modifying subcomponents suitable for the study area.Primary data were collected through household surveys in two communities:Embong and Topos.In total,146 samples were selected for this study using stratified random sampling.The results showed that Embong was more vulnerable to climate change than Topos.Embong exhibited a higher level of vulnerability to the effects of socio-demographic profile,social network,health,and natural disasters and climate variability,whereas Topos was more vulnerable to livelihood strategy,food,and water.Furthermore,Embong was more exposed to natural disasters and climate variability than Topos,but it demonstrated higher adaptive capacity and lower sensitivity than Topos.Nevertheless,socio-demographic profile influenced adaptive capacity in both communities.Sensitivity was influenced most by health in Embong,and sensitivity was influenced most by food in Topos.Although the vulnerability levels were not high in the two communities,several subcomponents must be specifically considered.Overall,this study can help the government make informed decisions to enhance adaptive capacity of the KSNP to climate change.

Rural coping and adaptation strategies for climate change by Himalayan communities in Nepal

Climate change has major impacts on the livelihoods of forest-dependent communities.The unpredictable weather conditions in rural Nepal have been attributed to a changing climate.This study explored the climate change adaptation and coping strategies that rural communities adopt for the conservation of natural resources and livelihoods in the mid-hills of Nepal.This paper explored major climatic hazards,assessed different coping and adaptation measures,and barrier faced to climate change adaptation based on perceptions by forest-dependent communities.We conducted focus group discussions,questionnaire surveys,and semistructured interviews with local communities and stakeholders.The results showed that rural communities had experienced significant impacts of climate change and variability.In response,they are practicing diverse coping and adaptation strategies,including the construction of bioengineering structures and planting different species that grow quickly and establish promptly.

Climate Change and Livelihood Vulnerability of the Local Population on Sagar Island, India

This paper attempts to assess the vulnerability to climate change of human communities in selected mouzas of Sagar Island,South 24 Parganas District of India. A primary household survey has been conducted to collect data on socio-demographic profile, livelihood strategy, health, food, water, social network, natural disaster and climate variation indicators, were selected for Livelihood Vulnerability Index(LVI) and Livelihood Vulnerability Index-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(LVI-IPCC) analyses to measure and compare the vulnerability of mouzas(administrative unit) currently suffering from frequent flooding, coastal erosion and embankment breaching on an annual basis. Secondary data collected from the Indian Meteorological Department, the Water Resources Information System of India and the Global Sea Level Observing System have been used to identify dynamics of climate change by employing statistical and Geographic Information System(GIS) techniques. A GPS survey has been conducted to identify locations of embankment breaching, and satellite images obtained from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and U.S. Geological Survey(NASA USGS) Government website have been applied to shoreline and land use change detection, using a supervised maximum likelihood classification. The results indicate that the study area has experienced increasing temperature, changing precipitation patterns, rise in sea level, higher storm surges, shoreline change, constant land loss, embankment breaching and changing land use, which have had impact on vulnerability, particularly of poorer people. The LVI(0.48 to 0.68) and LVI-IPCC(0.04 to 0.14) scores suggest that the populations of Dhablat, Bankimnagar, Sumatinagar, Muri Ganga and Sibpur mouzas are highly vulnerable(LVI scores of 0.60 to 0.68 and LVI-IPCC scores of 0.11 to 0.14) to climate change both because the communities are more exposed to it, and because poor access to food, health facilities and water makes them extremely sensitive to it and lowers their adaptive capacity. The findings of this study could be crucial to framing further development and adaptation strategies relating to climate change, and to safeguarding the estuarine ecosystem and the vulnerable population.

Index for climate change adaptation in China and its application

With the increasing awareness of the risks and impacts of climate change, scholars tend to pay more attention to the applications of indicators, which access the effectiveness of climate change adaptation. This study aims to evaluate the overall progress of climate change adaptation in China during 2010–2018 in a quantitative manner. The Index for Climate Change Adaptation in China (ICCAC) has been thus developed by adopting the analytic hierarchy process weighting and expert scoring method. Namely, ICCAC is composed of national climate change impacts, adaptation actions in key sectors, adaptation progress in key sectors, and the national adaptation policy framework. Overall, the ICCAC and its four sub-indexes increased significantly from 2010 to 2018, on a yearly-basis. Each sub-index implied that the socio-economic impacts caused by climate change in China have been alleviated gradually;specifically, the mainstream endeavor of key sectors has witnessed remarkable progress, however, it is worth noting that the gap between individual adaptation actions and policies still exists;the implementation effect of policies in key sectors is not as affluent as that of actions;the current adaptation endeavor in key areas is still closely related to the mainstream business of corresponding competent ministries rather than adaptation-aimed actions;the national adaptation policy framework has been primarily formed, but there are still some deficiencies. As a result, the gap in China's adaptation process could be mainly manifested in the following five aspects: i) adaptation effectiveness assessment in forestry and urban infrastructure is urgently needed;ii) policies in marine and water resources sectors need structural reforms;iii) evaluation criteria for national adaptation are not necessarily sufficient;iv) the improvement of adaptive management efficiency has stagnated recently;and v) the adaptation works of relevant Ministries should be coordinated and put forward the corresponding strategies. Finally, this study presents four proposals: conducting an evaluation of adaptation actions in all key sectors, integrating climate change impacts into sectoral planning decisions, launching concrete action plans for adaptation, establishing a complete policy framework on adaptation.

气候变化对典型区域宜居影响及适应策略研究

气候变化对城市的宜居性带来重大影响,分析气候变化趋势,并制定相应的适应性策略,有助于提升典型区域的宜居性,减轻和适应气候变化带来的负面影响。本文以广东省深圳市为例,分析了2008-2022年气温、风速、空气质量指数、相对湿度等多种气候因素的变异规律,利用熵权法建立了宜居指数评估模型,分析了宜居指数的变异规律,明确了宜居指数的主要环境制约因素,并在此基础上提出了社区尺度区域相应的适应性优化策略,最后验证了适应策略的应用效果。结果表明:近15年来,深圳市宜居指数呈下降趋势,从非常宜居下降到比较宜居,风速下降、气温升高和紫外线增强是导致其宜居指数下降的主要环境控制因子。民居适应性建造与改造和社区绿化可明显提高社区尺度区域的宜居性,但仍无法改变由于气候变化所导致的宜居指数下降趋势。研究结果可为城市建设者、管理者和相关人员进行城市规划设计提供参考。

Impact of climate change on Tibet tourism based on tourism climate index

Climate change is an important factor affecting the sustainable development of tourist destinations. Based on the monthly observation data of the main meteorological stations on the ground in Tibet from 1960 to 2015, this paper constructs a tourism climate index model. This index is used to quantitatively evaluate the tourism climate changes in Tibet, and investigate the impact of climate change on tourism. The results show that from 1960 to 2015, the temperature in Tibet increased by 1.35°C, and the tourism climate index changed significantly, especially in the regions of Changtang, Ngari and Kunlun Mountain. The fluctuation of temperature-humidity index, wind-chill index and index of clothing of these areas was larger than that of other regions. The changes of each index in different months are different, where spring observes larger changes while summer observes smaller changes. The tourism climate index in northwestern Tibet has increased, and the climate comfort period is expanding. In southeastern Tibet, the comfort level has declined and the comfort level in the central part has been slowly increasing. The comfort index in the southeastern part of Tibet has gradually declined, and the comfort index in central Tibet has slowly increased. According to the comprehensive assessment method including temperature and humidity index, wind-chill index, index of clothing and altitude adaptability index, the types of tourism climate index in Tibet can be divided into reduced, low-speed growth, medium-speed growth and rapid growth. Different regions should adopt alternative tourism products, strengthen energy conservation and emission reduction technology applications and green infrastructure construction, and appropriately control the scale of tourism activities so as to adapt to and mitigate the impact of climate change on tourist destinations.

中国适应性发展指数测度(2010—2019年)

适应性发展(Adaptive Development)旨在强调适应气候变化的同时,实现增长、公平和可持续发展目标。该研究在回顾适应性发展理论脉络基础上,界定适应性发展内涵;构建涵盖暴露度、敏感性和适应能力3个维度的适应性发展综合评价指标体系,结合2010—2019年31个省份统计数据,运用CRITIC综合评估法,对适应性发展指数(ADI)进行测算;并使用Moran指数、变异系数和Theil指数等方法,分析其时空分布和区域差异。研究结果表明:①中国适应性发展指数整体较低,呈现波动上升趋势;②三大维度发展趋势差异显著,与2010年相比,2019年暴露度提高3.39%、敏感性提高1.07%、适应能力增强0.7%,适应能力提升较慢;③适应能力是造成ADI水平差异的主要因素;④适应性发展指数呈现“东部>中部>东北>西部”区域特征,区域内差异对总体差异的影响逐渐超过区域间差异,且各省份间存在显著全局空间正相关关系。基于上述结论,该研究从顶层设计、关键领域和协同治理等方面提出中国适应性发展水平提升举措:基于生态文明建设系统工程论,树立复杂系统理念,推进中国适应性发展顶层设计;发挥优势补齐短板,关注适应行动关键领域;积极推动适应性发展融入区域重大发展战略和协调发展战略。

城市水资源适应气候变化能力评估方法研究——以北京市为例

根据北京市独特的城市发展和气候变化特征,将极端气候风险因子、城市化的影响及城市水资源系统三者叠加分析,借助文献调研、参考国外文献中适应能力评估指标体系的原则和方法,采用专家咨询、聚类分析、层次分析等方法,并经指标初选、指标优化、指标体系试评估、评估结果复审、二次优化等步骤,最终确立一套针对北京市水资源系统的"供水-需水-水质"三维适应气候变化能力的评估体系.

我国西部地区城市气候变化适应能力评价

我国西部地区城市自然气候系统敏感且脆弱,主动适应能力处于落后阶段,应对气候变化风险阻力大。文章以西部地区适应型试点城市和个别省会城市作为主要研究对象,参考"压力—状态—响应"(PSR)环境指标框架构建评价指标体系,利用综合评价法即层次分析法和逼近理想解排序法建立评价模型,根据综合指数评价结果将城市的适应能力划分为Ⅰ级低水平、Ⅱ级中等水平和Ⅲ级高水平。结果表明:西部地区城市气候变化适应能力整体为Ⅱ级中等水平,城市化进程相对稳定,城市状态指数基本分布在中等水平,压力层的适应能力指数相对状态指数的变化具有时间上的差异,响应指数变化具有滞后性;相对于西北地区,西南地区城市所面临的气候变化压力更具有不稳定性,而响应能力较好;根据适应能力指数等级将城市适应能力类型分为"初阶型""中阶型"和"高阶型"。

通过综合指数法评价中国能源部门的气候变化适应能力

气候变化必然影响能源部门,能源部门必须采取措施适应未来的气候。在此之前,需要了解目前中国能源部门对气候变化的适应情况。故通过一个综合指数评估中国能源部门在2000-2017年对气候变化的适应情况。为建立一个综合指数,先确定了三个子指标:反应性适应指标、预测性适应指标、计划性适应指标,通过标准化处理、确定权重、指标汇总,最终得到气候变化适应指数(CCAI)。结果表明,中国能源部门在2000-2010年提出了反应性适应方案,其系统脆弱性较高;2010年后,出现了预期性的适应情景,即脆弱性是中等的。总体来看,中国能源部门从系统脆弱性较高的反应性适应情景到脆弱性中等的预期性适应情景,取得了一定的进展,且该部门正在为计划性适应情景奠定基础。

武汉市极端气温与生态空间景观格局的影响指数及耦合特征

为解析气候变化与城市生态空间格局降温效应的变化特征及两者的协调机制,通过构建指标、函数模型、数理统计等方法对武汉市2000、2010、2020年的极端气温与具有降温效应的城市生态空间格局进行量化分析,结果显示:2000、2010、2020年的极端气温综合指数分别为10.7525、21.8882和3.2575,城市生态空间景观格局综合指数分别为13032.0、11834.4和100186.5;与降温效应呈正相关的格局指数:斑块类型面积、斑块所占景观面积比例、斑块数量、斑块密度、最大斑块占景观面积比例、景观形状指数平均斑块面积、平均分维数、聚集度、结合度、邻近度在2020年数值相对早年偏小,表明武汉市生态空间的降温效应逐渐被削弱;2000、2010、2020年极端气温综合指数与城市生态空间格局综合指数的协调程度由中级协调逐降为严重失调,意味着武汉市生态空间的降温效应对极端气温的缓解作用逐渐降低。

An Index-Based Approach to Assess Social Vulnerability for Hamburg, Germany

In this study,we set out to develop a new social vulnerability index(SVI).In doing so,we suggest some conceptual improvements that can be made to existing methodical approaches to assessing social vulnerability.To make the entanglement of socio-spatial inequalities visible,we are conducting a small-scale study on heterogeneous urban development in the city of Hamburg,Germany.This kind of high-resolution analysis was not previously available,but is increasingly requested by political decision makers.We can thus show hot spots of social vulnerability(SV)in Hamburg,considering the effects of social welfare,education,and age.In doing so,we defined SV as a contextual concept that follows the recent shift in discourse in line with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s(IPCC)concepts of risk and vulnerability.Our SVI consists of two subcomponents:sensitivity and coping capacity.Populated areas of Hamburg were identified using satellite information and merged with the social data units of the city.Areas with high SVI are distributed over the entire city,notably in the district of Harburg and the Reiherstieg quarter in Wilhelmsburg near the Elbe,as well as in the densely populated inner city areas of Eimsbüttel and St.Pauli.As a map at a detailed scale,our SVI can be a useful tool to identify areas where the population is most vulnerable to climate-related hazards.We conclude that an enhanced understanding of urban social vulnerability is a prerequisite for urban risk management and urban resilience planning.

城市应对气候变化适应力综合评价与提升策略——基于浙江省11个地级市的实证研究

基于全球极端气候频发的现状,以高度集聚为主要特征的城市将面临更大风险,加强气候变化适应力建设刻不容缓。通过构建气候变化适应力综合评估框架,建立了气候变化适应力综合指数(ACI)和适应力变化指数(ACCI),并对浙江省11个地级市的气候变化适应力进行实证研究,采用障碍度模型揭示了限制适应力发展水平提升的障碍因子。结果表明:研究期内,浙江省城市气候变化适应力指数持续上升,但城市间的适应力发展差距逐渐拉大,绍兴、宁波、舟山和金华气候适应力水平的提高幅度超过全省平均发展水平,而衢州、丽水和温州的气候适应力水平则低于全省水平。人力资本和自然资本是限制浙江省城市气候变化适应力发展的主要障碍因子。