Background Climate change presents an imminent threat to almost all biological systems across the globe.In recent years there have been a series of studies showing how changes in climate can impact infectious disease ...Background Climate change presents an imminent threat to almost all biological systems across the globe.In recent years there have been a series of studies showing how changes in climate can impact infectious disease transmission.Many of these publications focus on simulations based on in silico data,shadowing empirical research based on feld and laboratory data.A synthesis work of empirical climate change and infectious disease research is still lacking.Methods We conducted a systemic review of research from 2015 to 2020 period on climate change and infectious diseases to identify major trends and current gaps of research.Literature was sourced from Web of Science and PubMed literary repositories using a key word search,and was reviewed using a delineated inclusion criteria by a team of reviewers.Results Our review revealed that both taxonomic and geographic biases are present in climate and infectious disease research,specifcally with regard to types of disease transmission and localities studied.Empirical investigations on vector-borne diseases associated with mosquitoes comprised the majority of research on the climate change and infectious disease literature.Furthermore,demographic trends in the institutions and individuals published revealed research bias towards research conducted across temperate,high-income countries.We also identifed key trends in funding sources for most resent literature and a discrepancy in the gender identities of publishing authors which may refect current systemic inequities in the scientifc feld.Conclusions Future research lines on climate change and infectious diseases should considered diseases of direct transmission(non-vector-borne)and more research efort in the tropics.Inclusion of local research in low-and middle-income countries was generally neglected.Research on climate change and infectious disease has failed to be socially inclusive,geographically balanced,and broad in terms of the disease systems studied,limiting our capacities to better understand the actual efects of climate change on health.展开更多
Climate change is one of the critical determinants affecting life cycles and transmission of most infectious agents,including malaria,cholera,dengue fever,hand,foot,and mouth disease(HFMD),and the recent Corona-virus ...Climate change is one of the critical determinants affecting life cycles and transmission of most infectious agents,including malaria,cholera,dengue fever,hand,foot,and mouth disease(HFMD),and the recent Corona-virus pandemic.HFMD has been associated with a growing number of outbreaks resulting in fatal complications since the late 1990s.The outbreaks may result from a combination of rapid population growth,climate change,socioeconomic changes,and other lifestyle changes.However,the modeling of climate variability and HFMD remains unclear,particularly in statistical theory development.The statistical relationship between HFMD and climate factors has been widely studied using generalized linear and additive modeling.When dealing with time-series data with clustered variables such as HFMD with clustered states,the independence principle of both modeling approaches may be violated.Thus,a Generalized Additive Mixed Model(GAMM)is used to investigate the relationship between HFMD and climate factors in Malaysia.The model is improved by using a first-order autoregressive term and treating all Malaysian states as a random effect.This method is preferred as it allows states to be modeled as random effects and accounts for time series data autocorrelation.The findings indicate that climate variables such as rainfall and wind speed affect HFMD cases in Malaysia.The risk of HFMD increased in the subsequent two weeks with rainfall below 60 mm and decreased with rainfall exceeding 60 mm.Besides,a two-week lag in wind speeds between 2 and 5 m/s reduced HFMD's chances.The results also show that HFMD cases rose in Malaysia during the inter-monsoon and southwest monsoon seasons but fell during the northeast monsoon.The study's outcomes can be used by public health officials and the general public to raise awareness,and thus,implement effective preventive measures.展开更多
Introduction:Yellow fever(YF)is primarily transmitted by Haemagogus species of mosquitoes.Under climate change,mosquitoes and the pathogens that they carry are expected to develop faster,potentially impacting the case...Introduction:Yellow fever(YF)is primarily transmitted by Haemagogus species of mosquitoes.Under climate change,mosquitoes and the pathogens that they carry are expected to develop faster,potentially impacting the case count and duration of YF outbreaks.The aim of this study was to determine how YF virus outbreaks in Brazil may change under future climate,using ensemble simulations from regional climate models under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios for three time periods:2011-2040(short-term),2041-2070(mid-term),and 2071-2100(long-term).Methods:A compartmental model was developed to fit the 2017/18 YF outbreak data in Brazil using least squares optimization.To explore the impact of climate change,temperature-sensitive mosquito parameters were set to change over projected time periods using polynomial equations fitted to their relationship with temperature according to the average temperature for years 2011-2040,2041-2070,and 2071-2100 for climate change scenarios using RCP4.5 and RCP8.5,where RCP4.5/RCP8.5 corresponds to intermediate/high radiative forcing values and to moderate/higher warming trends.A sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine how the temperature-sensitive parameters impacted model results,and to determine how vaccination could play a role in reducing YF in Brazil.Results:Yellow fever case projections for Brazil from the models varied when climate change scenarios were applied,including the peak clinical case incidence,cumulative clinical case incidence,time to peak incidence,and the outbreak duration.Overall,a decrease in YF cases and outbreak duration was observed.Comparing the observed incidence in 2017/18 to the projected incidence in 2070-2100,for RCP4.5,the cumulative case incidence decreased from 184 to 161,and the outbreak duration decreased from 21 to 20 weeks.For RCP8.5,the peak case incidence decreased from 184 to 147,and the outbreak duration decreased from 21 to 17 weeks.The observed decrease was primarily due to temperature increasing beyond that suitable for Haemagogus mosquito survival.Conclusions:Climate change is anticipated to have an impact on mosquito-borne diseases.We found outbreaks of YF may reduce in intensity as temperatures increase in Brazil;however,temperature is not the only factor involved with disease transmission.Other factors must be explored to determine the attributable impact of climate change on mosquito-borne diseases.展开更多
文摘Background Climate change presents an imminent threat to almost all biological systems across the globe.In recent years there have been a series of studies showing how changes in climate can impact infectious disease transmission.Many of these publications focus on simulations based on in silico data,shadowing empirical research based on feld and laboratory data.A synthesis work of empirical climate change and infectious disease research is still lacking.Methods We conducted a systemic review of research from 2015 to 2020 period on climate change and infectious diseases to identify major trends and current gaps of research.Literature was sourced from Web of Science and PubMed literary repositories using a key word search,and was reviewed using a delineated inclusion criteria by a team of reviewers.Results Our review revealed that both taxonomic and geographic biases are present in climate and infectious disease research,specifcally with regard to types of disease transmission and localities studied.Empirical investigations on vector-borne diseases associated with mosquitoes comprised the majority of research on the climate change and infectious disease literature.Furthermore,demographic trends in the institutions and individuals published revealed research bias towards research conducted across temperate,high-income countries.We also identifed key trends in funding sources for most resent literature and a discrepancy in the gender identities of publishing authors which may refect current systemic inequities in the scientifc feld.Conclusions Future research lines on climate change and infectious diseases should considered diseases of direct transmission(non-vector-borne)and more research efort in the tropics.Inclusion of local research in low-and middle-income countries was generally neglected.Research on climate change and infectious disease has failed to be socially inclusive,geographically balanced,and broad in terms of the disease systems studied,limiting our capacities to better understand the actual efects of climate change on health.
基金This work was supported by the Ministry of Higher Education,Malaysia under the Fundamental Research Grant Scheme FRGS/1/2020/STG06/UTM/02/3(5F311)Research University Grant with vote no:QJ130000.3854.19J58Zamalah UTM Scholarship under Universiti Teknologi Malaysia.
文摘Climate change is one of the critical determinants affecting life cycles and transmission of most infectious agents,including malaria,cholera,dengue fever,hand,foot,and mouth disease(HFMD),and the recent Corona-virus pandemic.HFMD has been associated with a growing number of outbreaks resulting in fatal complications since the late 1990s.The outbreaks may result from a combination of rapid population growth,climate change,socioeconomic changes,and other lifestyle changes.However,the modeling of climate variability and HFMD remains unclear,particularly in statistical theory development.The statistical relationship between HFMD and climate factors has been widely studied using generalized linear and additive modeling.When dealing with time-series data with clustered variables such as HFMD with clustered states,the independence principle of both modeling approaches may be violated.Thus,a Generalized Additive Mixed Model(GAMM)is used to investigate the relationship between HFMD and climate factors in Malaysia.The model is improved by using a first-order autoregressive term and treating all Malaysian states as a random effect.This method is preferred as it allows states to be modeled as random effects and accounts for time series data autocorrelation.The findings indicate that climate variables such as rainfall and wind speed affect HFMD cases in Malaysia.The risk of HFMD increased in the subsequent two weeks with rainfall below 60 mm and decreased with rainfall exceeding 60 mm.Besides,a two-week lag in wind speeds between 2 and 5 m/s reduced HFMD's chances.The results also show that HFMD cases rose in Malaysia during the inter-monsoon and southwest monsoon seasons but fell during the northeast monsoon.The study's outcomes can be used by public health officials and the general public to raise awareness,and thus,implement effective preventive measures.
文摘Introduction:Yellow fever(YF)is primarily transmitted by Haemagogus species of mosquitoes.Under climate change,mosquitoes and the pathogens that they carry are expected to develop faster,potentially impacting the case count and duration of YF outbreaks.The aim of this study was to determine how YF virus outbreaks in Brazil may change under future climate,using ensemble simulations from regional climate models under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios for three time periods:2011-2040(short-term),2041-2070(mid-term),and 2071-2100(long-term).Methods:A compartmental model was developed to fit the 2017/18 YF outbreak data in Brazil using least squares optimization.To explore the impact of climate change,temperature-sensitive mosquito parameters were set to change over projected time periods using polynomial equations fitted to their relationship with temperature according to the average temperature for years 2011-2040,2041-2070,and 2071-2100 for climate change scenarios using RCP4.5 and RCP8.5,where RCP4.5/RCP8.5 corresponds to intermediate/high radiative forcing values and to moderate/higher warming trends.A sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine how the temperature-sensitive parameters impacted model results,and to determine how vaccination could play a role in reducing YF in Brazil.Results:Yellow fever case projections for Brazil from the models varied when climate change scenarios were applied,including the peak clinical case incidence,cumulative clinical case incidence,time to peak incidence,and the outbreak duration.Overall,a decrease in YF cases and outbreak duration was observed.Comparing the observed incidence in 2017/18 to the projected incidence in 2070-2100,for RCP4.5,the cumulative case incidence decreased from 184 to 161,and the outbreak duration decreased from 21 to 20 weeks.For RCP8.5,the peak case incidence decreased from 184 to 147,and the outbreak duration decreased from 21 to 17 weeks.The observed decrease was primarily due to temperature increasing beyond that suitable for Haemagogus mosquito survival.Conclusions:Climate change is anticipated to have an impact on mosquito-borne diseases.We found outbreaks of YF may reduce in intensity as temperatures increase in Brazil;however,temperature is not the only factor involved with disease transmission.Other factors must be explored to determine the attributable impact of climate change on mosquito-borne diseases.
