Overview of Impacts of Climate Change and Adaptation in China's Agriculture

The purpose of this paper is to document the likely impacts of climate change on China＇s agriculture and the current adaptation efforts made by government and farmers. The review of literature shows that climate change will have a significant impact on agriculture, primarily through its effect on crop yields. The extent of predicted impacts highly depends on the crop, the CO2 fertilization effect assumption and adaptation abilities. Market response to the production shocks resulting from climate change will lessen the impacts on agricultural production predicted by natural scientists. On adaptation, the government＇s major efforts have been in the developing new technologies, reforming extension system and enhancing institutional capacity. Farmers do adapt to climate change, but their adaptation measures cannot fully offset the negative impacts of climate change. The paper concludes and makes implications for future studies.

Irrigated Agriculture Facing the Challenge of Climate Change: Adaptation Strategies for Farmers in the Irrigated Perimeters of Môle Saint-Nicolas, Haiti

Môle Saint-Nicolas, like all other communes in the Republic of Haiti, faces increasing climate variability, impacting agricultural production and water resources. Consequently, there is a pressing need for adaptation to these climatic changes. This research aims to showcase the adaptation strategies deployed by farmers to cope with the increasing climate variability. Surveys were conducted through group and individual discussions with a randomly selected cohort of 150 farmers. Two types of analysis were performed: quantitative and qualitative. The quantitative data analysis was conducted using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) software. The findings reveal that farmers have perceived changes in rainfall patterns, temperature, wind, and their environment. These changes manifest as irregular rainfall, higher temperatures, prolonged drought periods, violent winds accompanied by rain, premature cessation of rains, and reduced flow from water sources. In response, the most common adaptation strategies adopted include selecting new cultivars, early-maturing varieties, crop rotation and diversification, canal dredging, new soil preparation methods, upstream water source protection, and micro-watershed management. The significance of this research lies in its contribution to enhancing farmers’ adaptive capacities by alerting stakeholders in the irrigated perimeters about the consequences of climate change, thereby incorporating the real needs of farmers in future projects.

The Impact of Arid Climate Change on Agriculture of Dry Valley in Southwest China and Its Adaptive Countermeasures

The eco-environmental vulnerability and underdevelopment of the agriculture in Southwest China would strengthen its disadvantage conditions further on the condition of arid climate change.It is necessary to deal with the relations between resource utilization and eco-environment finely and ascertain the adaptive principles on the dry valley agriculture to the arid climate change in order to change the extensive utilization of the special agricultural resources.The paper gave some adaptive countermeasures that develop modern rangeland husbandry,strengthening the special agriculture and agricultural industrialization,emphasis on the ecological agriculture development,constructing the extension system of water-saving modern agriculture,encouraging the service industry related to ＂agriculture,peasants and the countryside＂,constructing water utilization facilities,and exploiting the renewable energies.

Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Strategies in Northwest China

Climate change resulted in changes in crop growth duration and planting structure, northward movement of planting region, and more severe plant diseases and insect pests in Northwest China. It caused earlier seeding for spring crop, later seeding for autumn crop, accelerated crop growth, and reduced mortality for winter crop. To adapt to climate change, measures such as optimization of agricultural arrangement, adjustment of planting structure, expansion of thermophilic crops, and development of water-saving grassland and livestock were enhanced. agriculture have been taken. Damaging The deterioration trend of grassland was consequences of imbalance between intensified; both grass quantity and quality declined. With overgrazing, proportions of inferior grass, weeds and poisonous weeds increased in plateau pastoral areas. Returning farmland to grazing, returning grazing to grassland, fence enclosure and artificial grassland construction have been implemented to restore the grassland vegetation, to increase the grassland coverage, to reasonably control the livestock carrying capacity, to prevent overgrazing, to keep balance between grassland and livestock, and to develop the ecological animal husbandry. In Northwest China, because the amount of regional water resources had an overall decreasing trend, there was a continuous expansion in the regional land desertification, and soil erosion was very serious. A series of measures, such as development of artificial precipitation （snow）, water resources control, regional water diversion, water storage project and so on, were used effectively to respond to water deficit. It had played a certain role in controlling soil erosion by natural forest protection and returning farmland to forest and grassland. In the early 21st century, noticeable achievements had been made in prevention and control of desertification in Northwest China. The regional ecological environment has been improved obviously, and the desertification trend has shown sign of under control.

Possible Impacts of Climate Change on Agricultural Production in China and Its Adaptation Countermeasures

Global climate warming has discernable impacts on various natural systems and biological systems. As the most fragile ecosystem,agriculture is subjected to the most direct impacts from climate change. Of these impacts,the first one is the change in agricultural climate resources,which directly affects agricultural cultivation structure and crop variety distribution and finally results in the change in crop yield. Here,we review the advances in the impacts of climate change on crop yield,agricultural climate resources and China＇s agricultural cropping system and crop variety distribution pattern,and prospect the countermeasures for agricultural production in order to meet the future climate change,and several issues must be given high priority.

Modeling the impacts of climate change on China's agriculture

The impacts of climate change on China's agriculture are measured based on Ricardian model. By using county-level cross-sectional data on agricultural net revenue, climate, and other economic and geographical data for 1275 agriculture-dominated counties in the period of 1985-1991, we find that both higher temperature and more precipitation will have overall positive impact on China's agriculture. However, the impacts vary seasonally and regionally. Higher temperature in all seasons except spring increases agricultural net revenue while more precipitation is beneficial in winter but is harmful in summer. Applying the model to five climate scenarios in the 2020s and 2050s shows that the North, the Northeast, the Northwest, and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau would always benefit from climate change while the South and the Southwest may be negatively affected. For the East and the Central China, most scenarios show that they may benefit from climate change. In conclusion, climate change would be beneficial to the whole China.

Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation in Agriculture

Mitigation and adaptation are two principle strategies for managing human-induced climate change. Agriculture plays a duet role in climate change. It has been a major source of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. It is also one of the sectors most vulnerable to the risks and impacts of global climate change. This paper first indentified the mitigative and adaptative options and potential in agriculture, then addressed the integrated analysis of mitigation and adaptation and its benefits for agriculture. Finally, it discussed the implications to Chinese agriculture in dealing with the global climate change.

Climate Change Impacts on Central China and Adaptation Measures

In Central China, the obvious climate change has happened along with global warming. Based on the observational analysis, the climate change has significant effects, both positive and negative, in every field within the study area, and with the harmful effects far more prevalent. Under the A1B scenario, it is reported that temperature, precipitation, days of heat waves, and extreme precipitation intensity will increase at respective rates of 0.38℃ per decade, 12.6 mm per decade, 6.4 d and 47 mm per decade in the 21st century. It is widely believed that these climate changes in the future will result in some apparent impacts on agro-ecosystems, water resources, wetland ecosystem, forest ecosystem, human health, energy sectors and other sensitive fields in Central China. Due to the limited scientific knowledge and researches, there are still some shortages in the climate change assessment methodologies and many uncertainties in the climate prediction results. Therefore, it is urgent and essential to increase the studies of the regional climate change adaptation, extend the research fields, and enhance the studies in the extreme weather and climate events to reduce the uncertainties of the climate change assessments.

Interpretation of Climate Change and Agricultural Adaptations by Local Household Farmers: a Case Study at Bin County, Northeast China

Although climate change impacts and agricultural adaptations have been studied extensively, how smallholder farmers perceive climate change and adapt their agricultural activities is poorly understood. Survey-based data （presents farmers＇ personal perceptions and adaptations to climate change） associated with external biophysical-socioeconomic data （presents real-world climate change） were used to develop a farmer-centered framework to explore climate change impacts and agricultural adaptations at a local level. A case study at Bin County （1980s-2010s）, Northeast China, suggested that increased annual average temperature （0.6＆#176;C per decade） and decreased annual precipitation （46 mm per decade, both from meteorological datasets） were correctly perceived by 76 and 66.9%, respectively, of farmers from the survey, and that a longer growing season was conifrmed by 70%of them. These reasonably correct perceptions enabled local farmers to make appropriate adaptations to cope with climate change：Longer season alternative varieties were found for maize and rice, which led to a signiifcant yield increase for both crops. The longer season also affected crop choice：More farmers selected maize instead of soybean, as implicated from survey results by a large increase in the maize growing area. Comparing warming-related factors, we found that precipitation and agricultural disasters were the least likely causes for farmers＇ agricultural decisions. As a result, crop and variety selection, rather than disaster prevention and infrastructure improvement, was the most common ways for farmers to adapt to the notable warming trend in the study region.

Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture and Adaptive Strategies in China

China is the world＇s most populous country and a major emitter of greenhouse gases. Consequently, China＇s role in climate change has received a great deal of attention, whereas the impact of climate change on China has been largely ignored. Studies on the impacts of climate change on agriculture and adaptation strategies are increasingly becoming major areas of scientific concern. However, the clear warming that has been sounded in China in recent decades has not been matched with a clear assessment of the impact of climate change on China＇s water resources and agriculture. In the present study, we review observations on climate change, hydrology, and agriculture in China and relate these observations to likely future changes. We also analyse the adaptive strategies in China＇s agriculture.

Impacts of climate change on agricultural water resources and adaptation on the North China Plain

Climate change is having a considerable impact on the availability of water resources for agricultural production on the North China Plain （NCP）, where the shortage of water is currently disturbing the stability and sustainability of agricultural production with respect to the drying tendency since the 1950s. However, although potential evapotranspiration （ET） has shown a decreasing trend under climate change, actual ET has slightly increased with an acceleration in hydrological cycling. Global climate model （GCM） ensemble projections predict that by the 2050s, the increased crop water demand and intensified ET resulting from global warming will reduce water resources surplus （Precipitation-ET） about 4%-24% and increase significantly the irrigation water demand in crop growth periods. This study assesses possible mitigation and adaptation measures for enabling agricultural sustainability. It is revealed that reducing the sowing area of winter wheat （3.0%-15.9%） in water-limited basins, together with improvement in crop water-use efficiency would effectively mitigate water shortages and intensify the resilience of agricultural systems to climate change.

Governing Climate Change Adaptation in the EU and China:An Analysis of Formal Institutions

Both the European Union （EU） and China are culturally, economically, climatologically and environmentally diverse polities. The EU is a multi-state grouping of economically developed democratic countries, while China is a unitary sovereign state and a developing economy with a strong government bureaucracy. Our hypothesis is that given their diverse political systems, the EU and China would develop different kinds of systems for the governance of adaptation to climate change. We test this hypothesis through a comparative analysis of policy documents from the two study areas, in which we examine framework policies, programmatic actions and specific actions that have been adopted to date in order to address climate change, with a specific focus on the water sector. We find that climate change adaptation began to be addressed through formal policy on a similar timeline in the two regions. The EU and China are also similar in that they use framework laws and existing sectoral policy, such as for the water sector. We find that the EU has primarily relied on integration of climate change adaptation concerns through legal instruments which set a framework for implementation of adaptation policy. In China, specific actions to be incorporated in socio-economic development plans under the existing legislation on adaptation have been the main mode for integrating adaptation into sectoral actions, though the future trend may be to develop more regulations.

Agricultural adaptation to climate change in China

This paper presents the study on agriculture adaptation to climate change by adopting the assumed land use change strategy to resist the water shortage and to build the capacity to adapt the expected climate change in the northern China. The cost\|benefit analysis result shows that assumed land use change from high water consuming rice cultivation to other crops is very effective. Over 7 billions m 3 of water can be saved. Potential conflicts between different social interest groups, different regions, demand and supply, and present and future interests have been analyzed for to form a policy to implement the adaptation strategy. Trade, usually taken as one of adaptation strategies, was suggested as a policy option for to support land use change, which not only meets the consumption demand, but also, in terms of resources, imports water resources.

VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION OF CHINESE AGRICULTURE TO GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

Global climate change is now widely recognized, although some uncertainties remain. Being sensitive to climatic conditions, agriculture will be influenced by climatic changes. The major effects can be generalized as changes in the geographical limits to agriculture, changes in crop yields and impacts on agricultural systems. Chinese agriculture is particularly sensitive to climatic change and variability. Given prospects for huge population increase and the already intense utilization of resources, there is a serious threat to China’s abilily to feed itself. Thus, adaptation and adjustment to climatic change are urgently in need of attention. Climate is inherently variable and uncertain. so researchers should recognize this reality of climate in assessing implication for agriculture. A variety of approaches are suggested to reduce food production’s when appraising the effect of climate change on vulnerability to climate.

Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in Rainfed Farming Systems: A Modeling Framework for Scaling-Out Climate Smart Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa

Improving agricultural water productivity, under rainfed or irrigated conditions, holds significant scope for addressing climate change vulnerability. It also offers adaptation capacity needs as well as water and food security in the southern African region. In this study, evidence for climate change impacts and adaptation strategies in rainfed agricultural systems is explored through modeling predictions of crop yield, soil moisture and excess water for potential harvesting. The study specifically presents the results of climate change impacts under rainfed conditions for maize, sorghum and sunflower using soil-water-crop model simulations, integrated based on daily inputs of rainfall and evapotranspiration disaggregated from GCM scenarios. The research targets a vast farming region dominated by heavy clay soils where rainfed agriculture is a dominant practice. The potential for improving soil water productivity and improved water harvesting have been explored as ways of climate change mitigation and adaptation measures. This can be utilized to explore and design appropriate conservation agriculture and adaptation practices in similar agro-ecological environments, and create opportunities for outscaling for much wider areas. The results of this study can suggest the need for possible policy refinements towards reducing vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in rainfed farming systems.

Global progress in climate change adaptation policies and its implication for China

This paper reviews the progress in climate change adaptation(CCA) policies both under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC) and in major regions and countries,including the EU and its major member countries,the influential developed countries in the Asia-Pacific region,the emerging economies and the least developed countries(LDCs).The progress made in China in CCA policies is also reviewed and compared with that in other countries.Finally,good international practices are proposed for China's policy development.It is found that adaptation has been given the same priority as mitigation since the twenty-first century with regard to climate change-related actions.The topics related to adaptation in the international climate change negotiations under the UNFCCC have evolved from mechanisms for finance and technology development and transfer exclusively in the early stages to implementation of practical adaptation programs and actions.Since 2006,major developed and developing countries have frequently set forward specific CCA policies or general climate change policies involving adaptation in the form of laws,frameworks,strategies,and plans.The LDCs have also been working on National Adaptation Programmes of Action and subsequent National Adaptation Plans with the support from the financial mechanisms under the UNFCCC.Therefore,globally,it has become a common practice to develop national or regional policies to plan and guide CCA actions.China has established climate change policies involving adaptation at the national,regional,and sectorial levels since 2007.However,these policies have strong limitations in their knowledge base,strategic positioning,contents,and implementation mechanisms,e.g.lack of a sound knowledge base,an international perspective,clear responsibilities for policy implementation,and appropriate monitoring and evaluation mechanisms.It is recommended that China should further strengthen its technical capabilities in climate change projections as well as impact,vulnerability,and risk assessment,and develop methodologies and techniques for the preparation,impact assessment and implementation of CCA policies.Furthermore,future CCA strategies or plans should be developed with an emphasis on China's vision and strategic position on the world stage.

The Impact of Climate Change on Maize Yield and Farmers' Adaptation Options:Evidence from Three Provinces of China

This paper tries to answer the question that whether farmers can adjust better to climate change in the short-term than in long-term by using panel data models and long difference models respectively.We find that short term weather shocks are less detrimental to maize yield than the long-term climate changes,which can be seen as the evidences of adaptations.For adaptation options,we find farmers choose to decrease maize planting area or enlarge the irrigation inputs to cope with the increase of extreme heat days;when there are more precipitations,farmers will increase the input of fertilizer or labor.

Research on Climate Change and Countermeasure of Agriculture Sustainable Development

Based on the Fourth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) Assessment Report and meteorologists' research results of climate change in China,the influences of climate change on agricultural production were analyzed from the aspects of temperature,precipitation,sea-level rise and so on.Concrete measures were put forward to reply to climate change.According to the climate change trends,defensive measures were established to enhance the capacity of agriculture coping with climate change,making full use of advantages while avoiding disadvantages,in order to achieve sustainable development.

Analysis on the Impact of Facility Agriculture Development on Climate Change in Weifang

[Objective] The research aimed to study the influence of facility agriculture development on the climate variation in Weifang. [Method] Shouguang was selected as the representative station of greenhouse shed planting zone. By using the precipitation, temperature and relative humidity, etc. in Weifang City during 1961-2010, the climatic variation situations in the whole city and the greenhouse shed planting zone were analyzed. The variation trend and evolution characteristics of climate in the different seasons before and after the facility agriculture plantation were contrasted and analyzed. [Result] The annual rainfall and relative humidity presented the declining trend in the whole city in recent 50 years. The annual average, maximum and minimum temperatures all presented the rising trend. Since the large-scale plantation of greenhouse shed, the declining range of annual rainfall in the greenhouse shed planting zone was lower than that in the whole city, and the declining range of relative humidity was obviously higher than that in the whole city. The rising ranges of annual average, maximum and minimum temperatures were higher than that in the whole city. [Conclusion] The research provided the theory basis for the development of facility agriculture.

Pros and cons of climate change in China

Climate change strongly affected the structure and functions of natural ecosystems,e.g.the vegetation productivity decreased in the Northeast permafrost region due to the higher temperature and less precipitation,whereas in the Tibetan Plateau,the vegetation productivity increased,owing to the improved thermal resource.Climate change led to reduced precipitation in North and Northeast China and thus the reduced surface runoff.The public needs for energy were changed because of climate change,e.g.the shorter heating period in winter.Climate change profoundly influenced human health,pathophoresis and major projects by increasing extreme events,including frequency and magnitude,and causing more serious water shortage.Under the background of climate change,although the improved thermal resources can be helpful for extending the crop growth period,more extreme events may resulted in more instability in agricultural productivity.Not only did climate change indirectly affect the secondary and tertiary industries through the impacts on agriculture and natural resources,but also climate change mitigation measures,such as carbon tax,tariff and trading,had extensive and profound influences on the socioeconomic system.Further analysis indicated that the impact of climate change presented significant regional differences.The impact had its pros and cons,while the advantages outweighed the disadvantages.Based on the above analysis on the impacts of climate change,we put forward suggestions on coping with climate change.First,scientifically dealing with climate change will need to seek advantages while avoiding the disadvantages of climate change in order to achieve the orderly adaptation to climate change,which is characterized with"Overall best,long-term benefit."Second,quantitative adaptation should be given more attention,e.g.proposing operational schemes and predictable goals and using uncertainty analysis on adaptation measures.Third,more active coping strategy should be adopted to enhance China's future comprehensive competitiveness.The strategies include but are not limited to gradually adjusting the industrial structure,intensifying the research and development(R&D)of emission reduction technology and actively responding to the influence of carbon tax,tariff and trading on socioeconomic development in China.