Incorporating extreme event attribution into climate change adaptation for civil infrastructure:Methods,benefits,and research needs

In the last decade,the detection and attribution science that links climate change to extreme weather and climate events has emerged as a growing field of research with an increasing body of literature.This paper overviews the methods for extreme event attribution(EEA)and discusses the new insights that EEA provides for infrastructure adaptation.We found that EEA can inform stakeholders about current climate risk,support vulnerability-based and hazard-based adaptations,assist in the development of cost-effective adaptation strategies,and enhance justice and equity in the allocation of adaptation resources.As engineering practice shifts from a retrospective approach to a proactive,forward-looking risk management strategy,EEA can be used together with climate projections to enhance the comprehensiveness of decision making,including planning and preparing for un-precedented extreme events.Additionally,attribution assessment can be more useful for adaptation planning when the exposure and vulnerability of communities to past events are analyzed,and future changes in the probability of extreme events are evaluated.Given large uncertainties inherent in event attribution and climate projections,future research should examine the sensitivity of engineering design to climate model uncertainties,and adapt engineering practice,including building codes,to uncertain future conditions.While this study focuses on adaptation planning,EEA can also be a useful tool for informing and enhancing decisions related to climate mitigation.

Changes of Extreme Events in Regional Climate Simulations over East Asia

Changes of extreme events due to greenhouse effects (2 × CO2) over East Asia, with a focus on the China region as simulated by a regional climate model (RegCM2), are investigated. The model is nested to a global coupled ocean-atmosphere model (CSIRO R21L9 AOGCM). Analysis of the control run of the regional model indicates that it can reproduce well the extreme events in China. Statistically significant changes of the events are analyzed. Results show that both daily maximum and daily minimum temperature increase in 2 × CO2 conditions, while the diurnal temperature range decreases. The number of hot spell days increases while the number of cold spell days decreases. The number of rainy days and heavy rain days increases over some sub-regions of China. The 2 × CO2 conditions also cause some changes in the tropical storms affecting China.

Changes in Climatic Factors and Extreme Climate Events in Northeast China during 1961-2010

This study focuses on examining the characteristics of climate factors and extreme climate events in Northeast China during 1961- 2010 by using daily data from 104 stations, including surface air temperature, precipitation, wind speed, sunshine duration, and snow depth. Results show that annual mean temperature increased at a significant rate of 0.35℃ per decade, most notably in the Lesser Khingan Mountains and in winter. Annual rainfall had no obvious linear trend, while rainy days had a significant decreasing trend. So, the rain intensity increased. High-temperature days had a weak increasing trend, and low-temperature days and cold wave showed significant decreasing trends with rates of 3.9 d per decade and -0.64 times per decade, respectively. Frequency and spatial scope of low-temperature hazard reduced significantly. Warm days and warm nights significantly increased at 1.0 and 2.4 d per decade, while cold days and cold nights decreased significantly at -1.8 and -4.1 d per decade, respectively. The nighttime warming rate was much higher than that for daytime, indicating that nighttime warming had a greater contribution to the overall warming trend than daytime warming. The annual mean wind speed, gale days, and sunshine duration had significant decreasing trends at rates of-0.21 m s-1 per decade, -4.0 d per decade and -43.3 h per decade, respectively. The snow cover onset dates postponed at a rate of 1.2 d per decade, and the snow cover end date advanced at 1.5 d per decade, which leads to shorter snow cover duration by -2.7 d per decade. Meanwhile, the maximum snow depth decreased at -0.52 cm per decade. In addition, the snow cover duration shows a higher correlation with precipitation than with temperature, which suggests that precipitation plays a more important role in maintaining snow cover duration than temperature.

Simulation of Extreme Climate Events over China with Different Regional Climate Models

During phase II of the Regional Climate Model Inter-comparison Project （RMIP） for Asia, the Asian climate was estimated from July 1988 to December 1998 using six climate models. In this paper, the abilities of six climate models to simulate several important ex- treme climate events in China during the last years of the last century were analyzed. The modeled results for the intensity of the precipitation anomaly over the Yang- tze-Huaihe Valley during the summers of 1991 and 1998 were weaker than the observed values. The positive pre- cipitation anomaly responsible for a catastrophic flood in 1991 was well reproduced in almost all simulation results, but the intensity and range of the precipitation anomaly in 1998 were weaker in the modeled results. The spatial dis- tribution of extreme climate events in 1997, when severe drought affected North China and flood impacted South China, was reproduced by most of the regional models because the anomaly of the large-scale background field was well-simulated, despite poor simulation of high temperature areas in the north during the summer by all models.

Changes in Extreme Events as Simulated by a High-Resolution Regional Climate Model for the Next 20-30 Years over China

In this paper, the changes in temperature and precipitation extremes over the next 20-30 years (2021-2050) in relative to the present day (1986-2005) under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario are analyzed based on a high-resolution climate change simulation performed by a regional climate model (the Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) RegCM3). The extreme indices of summer days (SU), frost days (FD), and growing season length (GSL) for temperature and simple daily intensity index (SDII), number of days with precipitation ≥10 mm d-1 (R10), and consecutive dry days (CDD) for precipitation are used as the indicators of the extremes. The results show that the indices simulated by RegCM3 in the present day show good agreement with the observed. A general increase in SU, a decrease in FD, and an increase in GSL are found to occur in the next 20-30 years over China. A general increase in SDII, an increase in R10 over western China, and a decrease in R10 in north, northeast, and central China are simulated by the model. Changes in CDD are characterized by a decrease in the north and an increase in the south and the Tibetan Plateau.

State of China’s climate in 2023

China witnessed a warm and dry climate in 2023.The annual surface air temperature reached a new high of 10.71℃,with the hottest autumn and the second hottest summer since 1961.Meanwhile,the annual precipitation was the second lowest since 2012,at 615.0 mm.Precipitation was less than normal from winter to summer,but more in autumn.Consistent with the annual condition,precipitation in the flood season from May to September was also the second lowest since 2012,which was 4.3%less than normal,with the anomalies in the central and eastern parts of China being higher in central areas and lower in the north and south.On the contrary,the West China Autumn Rain brought much more rainfall than normal,with an earlier start and later end.Although there was less annual precipitation in 2023,China suffered seriously from heavy precipitation events and floods.In particular,from the end of July to the beginning of August,a rare,extremely strong rainstorm caused by Typhoon Dussuri hit Beijing,Tianjin,and Hebei,causing an abrupt alteration from drought to flood conditions in North China.By contrast,Southwest China experienced continuous drought from the previous autumn to current spring.In early summer,North China and the Huanghuai region experienced the strongest high-temperature process since 1961.Nevertheless,there were more cold-air processes than normal impacting China,with the most severe of the year occurring in mid-January.Unexpectedly,in spring,there were more sand and dust occurrences in northern China.

A systematic review of climate change impacts,adaptation strategies,and policy development in West Africa

Climate change studies are diverse with no single study giving a comprehensive review of climate change impacts,adaptation strategies,and policy development in West Africa.The unavailability of an all-inclusive study to serve as a guide for practitioners affects the effectiveness of climate change adaptation strategies proposed and adopted in the West African sub-region.The purpose of this study was to review the impacts of climate change risks on the crop,fishery,and livestock sectors,as well as the climate change adaptation strategies and climate-related policies aimed at helping to build resilient agricultural production systems in West Africa.The review process followed a series of rigorous stages until the final selection of 56 articles published from 2009 to 2023.Generally,the results highlighted the adverse effects of climate change risks on food security.We found a continuous decline in food crop production.Additionally,the livestock sector experienced morbidity and mortality,as well as reduction in meat and milk production.The fishery sector recorded loss of fingerlings,reduction in fish stocks,and destruction of mariculture and aquaculture.In West Africa,climate-smart agriculture technologies,physical protection of fishing,and inclusion of gender perspectives in programs appear to be the major adaptation strategies.The study therefore recommends the inclusion of ecosystem and biodiversity restoration,weather insurance,replacement of unsafe vessels,and strengthening gender equality in all climate change mitigation programs,as these will help to secure enough food for present and future generations.

Changes in Climate Factors and Extreme Climate Events in South China during 1961-2010

Daily climate data at 110 stations during 1961-2010 were selected to examine the changing characteristics of climate factors and extreme climate events in South China. The annual mean surface air temperature has increased significantly by 0.16℃ per decade, most notably in the Pearl River Delta and in winter. The increase rate of the annual extreme minimum temperature (0.48℃ per decade) is over twice that of the annual extreme maximum temperature (0.20℃ per decade), and the increase of the mean temperature is mainly the result of the increase of the extreme minimum temperature. The increase rate of high-temperature days (1.1 d per decade) is close to the decrease rate of low-temperature days (-1.3 d per decade). The rainfall has not shown any significant trend, but the number of rainy days has decreased and the rain intensity has increased. The regional mean sunshine duration has a significant decreasing trend of -40.9 h per decade, and the number of hazy days has a significant increasing trend of 6.3 d per decade. The decrease of sunshine duration is mainly caused by the increase of total cloud, not by the increase of hazy days in South China. Both the regional mean pan evaporation and mean wind speed have significant decreasing trends of -65.9 mm per decade and -0.11 m s-1 per decade, respectively. The decrease of both sunshine duration and mean wind speed plays an important role in the decrease of pan evaporation. The number of landing tropical cyclones has an insignificant decreasing trend of -0.6 per decade, but their intensities show a weak increasing trend. The formation location of tropical cyclones landing in South China has converged towards 10-19°N, and the landing position has shown a northward trend. The date of the first landfall tropical cyclone postpones 1.8 d per decade, and the date of the last landfall advances 3.6 d per decade, resulting in reduction of the typhoon season by 5.4 d per decade.

Spatial and Temporal Variations of Extreme Climate Events in Xinjiang, China during 1961-2010

Daily maximum/minimum temperature and precipitation data from 35 weather stations in Xinjiang during 1961-2010 were examined using kriging spatial analysis, linear tendency estimation, and correlation analysis. Temporal trends and spatial distribution patterns of extreme temperature and precipitation in this area were then analyzed using 12 extreme temperature and 7 extreme precipitation indices. The following results were obtained. 1) Over the past 50 years, extreme cold indices, excepting the monthly maximum temperature minimum value and monthly extreme minimum temperature, showed slight decreasing trends. These indices include the maximum number of consecutive frost days, icy days, cold-nighttime days, and cold-daytime days. 2) Extreme warm events generally showed significant increasing trends (P < 0.01), including the indices of summertime days, warm-nighttime days, warm-daytime days, monthly extreme maximum temperature, and monthly minimum temperature maximum value. 3) The spatial distributions of threshold values of extreme warm and cold events showed notable regional differences. A reducing trend of extreme cold events and an increase in extreme warm events has occurred mainly in northern Xinjiang. 4) For the past 50 years, six extreme precipitation indices, aside from consecutive dry days, showed significant increasing trends in Xinjiang (P < 0.05) and notable differences in spatial distribution. The increase in extreme precipitation events was more rapid at northern than at southern sites. Extreme precipitation intensity was greater in mountainous areas, and precipitation frequency increased in the plain region. 5) Factor analysis revealed good correlations among extreme temperature indices, excepting extreme temperature days.

The Last 15,000 Years: Climate-Controlled and “Rare-Event”-Triggered/Rise and Fall of Holocene Cultures in the Near/Middle East and in Central Europe—Evidence and Background

Pushed by the results of a preceding publication on the possibly Quaternary Jebel Waqf as Suwwan Meteorite Crater, Jordan [5], where an amazing coincidence of Rapid Climate Changes (RCCs) with Rise and Fall of Neolithic and Bronze Age Cultures became evident for the Near/Middle East, this paper deals with the same subject, however, relating to the complete Holocene period in the same area and, additionally, in Central Europe as well. By application of modern climatic data [6] comprising isotope analysis (δ18O, 14C, 10Be), acid and aerosol events, and greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4) Greenland ice cores as well as other astro-/geophysical and geological parameters, an overwhelming coincidence/relation/interdependence of both natural and cultural evidences becomes obvious throughout the last 15,000 years across the Northern Hemisphere. Apart from solar output and other astrophysical processes, most important climate- and Earth-related parameters are Mega-Volcanism (i.e.Santorini Greece: ~3640 yr cal. B. P.), Impact Events (i.e. during Mesolithic: ~9600 yr cal. B. P), rapid oceanic current change (DO-Events), and Plate Tectonics (possibly Atlantis-Event: ~11,500 yr cal. B.P. = Pleistocene/Holocene boundary). The most essential parameter is a significant temperature change related to more or less restricted latitude realms of the Northern Hemisphere. Thus, glacier advance/retreat controls the mobility of peoples (i.e. Nations' Migration, Teutonic Empires) and the access to ore deposits (Au, Ag, Cu, Sn, Zn, Pb, Fe) located in Alpine Mountain Ranges (i.e. End-Neolithic, Early Bronze Age). Myths like the Gilgamesh Epos and John Apocalypse convincingly reveal realistic contents relating to natural hazards like tsunamis, impact and flooding events. They unmisunderstandably make obvious that Myths may provide valuable contributions, especially to Geosciences. Some of the controlling parameters interrelate with others or present a kind of hierarchy: Mega-Volcanism/impact events à ejecta à wildfires, heat storms à cosmic winter, sint winter à stop of photosynthesis à mass extinction environmental pollution à greenhouse effects. Significant events (21 cases in total) occurred on i.e.

Livelihood Factors and Household Strategies for an Unexpected Climate Event in Upland Northern Laos

Climate events pose major challenges to food production and the livelihoods of rural inhabitants in northern Laos, where upland rice using swidden production is an important crop. The onset of the rainy season in this area is one such climate event, and it has occurred earlier and with less regularity in recent years. Not all households are able to cope with these changes. This study examines the ability of local farmers to cope with rice insufficiency. This investigation also clarifies household strategies in dealing with the climate event. We randomly interviewed 63 of 95 household heads, and performed a paired sample t test to examine the significance of differences in three household groups between the 2010 normal climate and the 2011 climate event. The groups were categorized according to rice selfsufficiency in 2011: groups I are households with rice self-sufficiency, group II are those facing a rice shortage of up to 3 months, and group III are those with insufficient rice for over 3 months. We also conducted a one-way ANOVA to examine the significance of differences in livelihood strategies among the three groups. We found that the household labor force was the most important factor in enhancing the villagers' ability to deal with the climate event and that the level of impact of that event shaped their coping strategies. Households with substantial labor force had more options for coping strategies than those with smaller ones. The villagers faced different levels of impact and adopted differentcoping strategies accordingly. Non-timber forest product collection was the principle livelihood strategy in response to non-climate factors such as education, access to health services, provision of equipment and clothing, and overcoming the impact of the climate event. Households heavily affected by the early rainy season onset tended to engage in intensive activities such as off-farm activity and outside work, rather than their major livelihood activities in the village(upland crop and livestock production).

Multi-scale regionalization based mining of spatio-temporal teleconnection patterns between anomalous sea and land climate events

Climate sequences can be applied to defining sensitive climate zones, and then the mining of spatio-temporal teleconnection patterns is useful for learning from the past and preparing for the future. However, scale-dependency in this kind of pattern is still not well handled by existing work. Therefore, in this study, the multi-scale regionalization is embedded into the spatio-temporal teleconnection pattern mining between anomalous sea and land climatic events. A modified scale-space clustering algorithm is first developed to group climate sequences into multi-scale climate zones. Then, scale variance analysis method is employed to identify climate zones at characteristic scales, indicating the main characteristics of geographical phenomena. Finally, by using the climate zones identified at characteristic scales, a time association rule mining algorithm based on sliding time windows is employed to discover spatio-temporal teleconnection patterns. Experiments on sea surface temperature, sea level pressure, land precipitation and land temperature datasets show that many patterns obtained by the multi-scale approach are coincident with prior knowledge, indicating that this method is effective and reasonable. In addition, some unknown teleconnection patterns discovered from the multi-scale approach can be further used to guide the prediction of land climate.

Progress and Prospect of Extreme Climate Events in Arid Northwest China

Extreme climate events have significant influences on ecological systems and social economic systems. The global climate is becoming warmer and warmer, so extreme climate events will probably increase in both frequency and intensity, and the Northwest arid region of China is situated in the middle latitudes, all of which combine to make this area be come the most sensitive region to global climate change. For this reason, based on home and broad literature of research in extreme climate events, this paper mainly discusses those scientific problems which are waiting for resolved and we should strength work that those need research in future from extreme climatic events concept, their change regular, the discussion of theory reasons, and review from mode and simulate, as well as sum up some research results related ex treme climatic change.

Applicability of Phase Synchronization Clustering to Detect the Process of Climate Events

Phase synchronization clustering method is used to detect the process of extreme weather events rather than extreme values events mathematically. The applicability is discussed from the aspects of noise intensity and sequence length and the observed data are applied practically. The detection process shows that clustering measure difference can detect the temporal process objectively to a certain degree and it has certain application to detect the temporal process of extreme weather events.

Extreme Weather and Climate Events and Their Impacts on Island Countries in the Western Pacific: Cyclones, Floods and Droughts

Increases in the frequency of extreme weather and climate events and the severity of their impacts on the natural environment and society have been observed across the globe in recent decades. In addition to natural climate variability and greenhouse-induced climate change, extreme weather and climate events produce the most pronounced impacts. In this paper, the climate of three island countries in the Western Pacific: Fiji, Samoa and Tuvalu, has been analysed. Warming trends in annual average maximum and minimum temperatures since the 1950s have been identified, in line with the global warming trend. We present recent examples of extreme weather and climate events and their impacts on the island countries in the Western Pacific: the 2011 drought in Tuvalu, the 2012 floods in Fiji and a tropical cyclone, Evan, which devastated Samoa and Fiji in December 2012. We also relate occurrences of the extreme weather and climate events to phases of the El Ni&ntilde;o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. The impacts of such natural disasters on the countries are severe and the costs of damage are astronomical. In some cases, climate extremes affect countries to such an extent that governments declare a national state of emergency, as occurred in Tuvalu in 2011 due to the severe drought’s impact on water resources. The projected increase in the frequency of weather and climate extremes is one of the expected consequences of the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentration and will likely have even stronger negative impacts on the natural environment and society in the future. This should be taken into consideration by authorities of Pacific Island Countries and aid donors when developing strategies to adapt to the increasing risk of climate extremes. Here we demonstrate that the modern science of seasonal climate prediction is well developed, with current dynamical climate models being able to provide skilful predictions of regional rainfall two-three months in advance. The dynamic climate model-based forecast products are now disseminated to the National Meteorological Services of 15 island countries in the Western Pacific through a range of web-based information tools. We conclude with confidence that seasonal climate prediction is an effective solution at the regional level to provide governments and local communities of island nations in the Western Pacific with valuable assistance for informed decision making for adaptation to climate variability and change.

The impact of climate changes on mass events in China

There is an increasing number of "mass events" in China's Mainland.My study extends the current studies to the context of China and tries to examine the potential impacts of climate changes on human conflias in China.The results suggest a strong linkage between the deviation of monthly mean temperature from the historical mean and the number of mass events in a province.If the current trend of warming persists,in the next 6-8 decades,the number of mass events in China will increase by over 8.8%.

Workshop on Polar Climate Changes and Extreme Events

Polar climate systems have experienced a number of dramatic changes （Wang et al., 2017; Turner et al., 2016; Gordon, 2014; Rignot et al., 2013; Meier et al., 2012; Kwok and Rothrock, 2009; Thompson and Solomon, 2002）, which have influenced climatic conditions across large parts of the globe through large-scale atmospheric and oceanic teleconnections （Dou and Wu, 2018; Zhang et al., 2018;

Climate Change Management Strategies to Handle and Cope with Extreme Weather and Climate Events

Increasing the concentration of greenhouse gases causes rising in globalwarming and carbon dioxide emissions. With further efforts to reducecarbon dioxide, it is possible to prevent the warming of the earth, but theeffects of climate change that we have already created can not be reduced.Recent observed and predicted alterations in the global climate require adouble policy to react to the decline in climate alteration and its adjustment(coexistence) to explain the key factors and their effects. Measuresto reduce climate alteration through decreasing greenhouse gas releasesor removing them from the atmosphere are possible. Execution of morereduction measures at the present time will require less adaptation in thefuture. Meanwhile, inadequate measures to curb climate change presentlyincrease the risk of catastrophic consequences, so that adjustment costs willrise unreasonably and adaptive capacity will face further constraints. Climatechange adaptation measures concentrate in increasing our capabilityto deal with or prevent damaging effects or the use of new circumstances.Increasing temperature and changes visible today due to climate changemean that adaptation strategies should be applied. In this paper, strategiesfor reducing climate change and adaptation are reviewed and various strategiesare presented. Meanwhile, this paper looks at the economies affectedby climate change, our involvement to climate alteration, and the ways inwhich the economy has influenced climate change and the ways in which itcan provide logical options.

Climate change characteristics of Amur River

Unusually severe weather is occurring more frequently due to global climate change. Heat waves, rainstorms, snowstorms, and droughts are becoming increasingly common all over the world, threatening human lives and property. Both temperature and precipitation are representative variables usually used to directly reflect and forecast the influences of climate change. In this study, daily data （from 1953 to 1995） and monthly data （from 1950 to 2010） of temperature and precipitation in five regions of the Amur River were examined. The significance of changes in temperature and precipitation was tested using the Mann-Kendall test method. The amplitudes were computed using the linear least-squares regression model, and the extreme temperature and precipitation were analyzed using hydrological statistical methods. The results show the following： the mean annual temperature increased significantly from 1950 to 2010 in the five regions, mainly due to the warming in spring and winter; the annual precipitation changed significantly from 1950 to 2010 only in the lower mainstream of the Amur River; the frequency of extremely low temperature events decreased from 1953 to 1995 in the mainstream of the Amur River; the frequency of high temperature events increased from 1953 to 1995 in the mainstream of the Amur River; and the frequency of extreme precipitation events did not change significantly from 1953 to 1995 in the mainstream of the Amur River. This study provides a valuable theoretical basis for settling disputes between China and Russia on sustainable development and utilization of water resources of the Amur River.

Abrupt Climate Changes of Holocene

This paper is a review of studies of abrupt climate changes(ACCs) during the Holocene published during the past ten years.North Atlantic cold events are indicators of ACCs.As indicated by North Atlantic ice-rafted debris(IRD),there were nine confirmed cold events during the Holocene,occurring at 11.1 kyr,10.3 kyr,9.4 kyr,8.1 kyr,5.9 kyr,4.2 kyr,2.8 kyr,1.4 kyr,and 0.4 kyr respectively according to most representative results from Bond et al.(1997).However,the identification of chronology has been made with some uncertainties.Considerable climatic proxy data have shown that,during the cold events,substantial climate abnormalities have occurred widely across the globe,particularly in the areas surrounding the North Atlantic.These abnormalities were in the form of high-latitude cold in the both hemispheres,expansion of the Westerlies to low latitudes,drought in the monsoon regions,recession of summer monsoons,and intensification of the winter monsoons.Studies have indicated that the four ACCs occurring in the early Holocene may be related to freshwater pulses from ice melting in the northern part of the North Atlantic,and the other five ACCs that occurred during the middle and late Holocene may be related to the decreased solar activity.